The Arctic & Baltic Fronts Of The NATO-Russian New Cold War Are Dangerously Merging
This trend poses a significant threat to Russia, but it also poses an equally significant one to the EU too if it leads to Putin taking seriously his hardliners’ appeals to launch a first strike against NATO.
There’s recently been a flurry of news about the increasingly interconnected Arctic and Baltic fronts of the New Cold War. The UK announced a new multinational naval initiative to contain Russia in these seas, which followed the Russian Ambassadors to Finland and Norway warning about threats from them. Prior to all of this, some Russian sources accused the Baltic States of allowing Ukrainian drones to transit across their airspace en route to attacking St. Petersburg, which amounts to a major provocation if true.
The abovementioned developments contextualize Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko interview with Izvestia about how “The West is practicing the containment of Russia in the Baltics”. In his words, “The Baltic region is now being used by the West as a laboratory for studying how to escalate tensions and how to contain Russia from various regional and geographic directions…Now they’re closing in on the Arctic, forming various coalitions. This is, of course, a very alarming development.”
The outlet also quoted Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov, who warned that “The situation in the Arctic is gradually changing—unfortunately, for the worse. If things continue like this, the distinction between the Baltic and the Arctic will gradually blur.” Additionally, Izvestia informed readers that “Ukraine is already being involved in deterring Russia. In May, drone operators participated in the Swedish Aurora 26 exercises, which took place, among other places, on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.”
Given what the Russian Ambassador to Norway mentioned in his previously cited interview, Ukraine’s participation in those drills could precede the potential basing of its drone teams in Gotland for attacking Russian shipping in the Baltic like its reportedly planned ones in Norway plan to do in the Arctic. Such a scenario could unfold along the increasingly interconnected Arctic-Baltic fronts simultaneously with the consolidation of the new UK-led multinational naval initiative for containing Russia there.
Even worse, the Baltic States now serve as a tripwire for reigniting the Ukrainian Conflict after it ends or opening up another front if it resumes afterwards, the US is trying to get Belarus to “defect” from Russia, and Poland is continuing its build-up that could one day threaten Kaliningrad. The stage is therefore not only being set for escalations in the Baltic Sea, but also along its shores as regards the scenario of the West blockading Kaliningrad, potentially in parallel but perhaps only if Belarus first “defects” from Russia.
As if all of that wasn’t already bad enough for Russia, France will now hold regular nuclear drills with Poland aimed against Russia and Belarus, thus extending its nuclear umbrella eastward and possibly covering for Poland if it dispatches troops to help the Baltic States in a crisis. This merger of the Arctic and Baltic fronts poses a significant threat to Russia, but it also poses an equally significant one to the EU too if it leads to Putin taking seriously his hardliners’ appeals to launch a first strike against NATO.
The aforesaid observation highlights the dangers of this trend, but on the flipside, it also suggests that the increasingly interconnected Arctic-Baltic fronts will play a central role in the reform of the European security architecture once the Ukrainian Conflict ends. From the US’ perspective, it’s crucial to maintain peace between NATO and Russia in order to avoid World War III, ergo why Trump 2.0 should prioritize the creation of such an architecture – whether in general or focused on this front – as soon as possible.
The West is emboldened by Putin's constant retreats. The bear presses his back to the wall, gives ground to the pack, lets himself be bitten without striking back, whines, growls, but crouches lower and lower, like a fearful giant. The dogs have smelled blood. They become mad with excitement, forgetting all danger."
Since 2022, Putin has allowed all his 'red lines' to be violated. Not a single red line announced with fanfare and chin‑thrusting has not been crossed by the West. Not one. Absolutely every single one. And now, about twenty Russian teenagers are killed in their sleep, and what do Russians do? They bomb two or three empty warehouses in Kyiv. They are still laughing about it from Warsaw to London via Berlin and Paris. Putin is no longer the man for the situation.
Furthermore, I am surprised that Andrew hasn't written a report on Putin's visit to China. If I remember correctly, he wrote an article saying that either, during this trip, Putin would obtain a formal alliance or at least a much firmer commitment from China, or he would be forced to pass under the Caudine Forks of a negotiation with the West. Apparently, he obtained nothing concrete and was not granted any protocolary consideration superior to that given to Trump. Moreover, the PRNRs are silent on the subject. Just as they have been silent on Russia for the past two months. What is really going on?"
Russia would to right to hit NATO with a first strike. NO nuclear of course but Nato needs to realize that Russia has many new strike cababilities if it comes to that. Please NATO for your good & the worlds make PEACE with RUSSIA. Russia is a nuclear supperr Power NATO go home you are from a diferent era in warfare. PEACE with Russiia will make the whole world safer.