The Bangladeshi Opposition’s New Narrative Is Meant To Maximally Appeal To The West

The basis upon which overt Western support for the opposition’s impending Color Revolution plans can be provided is the false narrative that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party just concocted alleging that their country is under tripartite Sino-Indo-Russo control with all that implies in the Western imagination.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Standing Committee Member Gayeshwar Chandra Roy declared that the opposition won’t obey the ruling Awami League (AL). In his words, “(Prime Minister) Sheikh Hasina only commands the votes of 7% of the country, and (BNP Chairman) Tarique Rahman is the leader of the remaining 93% of voters. This government does not belong to us; it belongs to China, India, and Russia.” This follows the AW’s victory in January’s elections that the BNP boycotted and which the US criticized.

Here are some background briefings to bring everyone up to speed on what’s happening in Bangladesh:

* 16 April 2023: “Why’s The US Scheming To Carry Out Regime Change In Bangladesh?”

* 26 August 2023: “India’s Reported Pushback Against US Meddling In Bangladesh Is Driven By Security Concerns”

* 26 November 2023: “Russia Warned That The US Might Orchestrate A Color Revolution In Bangladesh”

* 21 December 2023: “Bangladesh, Connectivity, And Grand Strategy Will Likely Be On Jaishankar’s Agenda In Moscow”

* 10 January 2024: “The Outcome Of The Bangladeshi & Bhutanese Elections Gives India Strategic Breathing Space”

The BNP’s statement suggests that it’s preparing for the Color Revolution that Russia warned about.

Although both parties claim that they want to continue Bangladesh’s geopolitical balancing act, it’s only the AW that’s ever truly delivered on this. The BNP’s previous times in power saw it tilt much closer to the US, China, and interestingly enough, even Pakistan from whom Bangladesh became independent after a very bloody conflict. The AW isn’t against those three, though its policy towards Pakistan has traditionally been tough, but it never neglected ties with India or Russia like the BNP did.  

To the contrary, the AW prioritizes ties with those two since it regards them as indispensable parts of Bangladesh’s geopolitical balancing act, which explains why India reportedly pushed back against US meddling this summer while Russia explicitly warned about a US Color Revolution plot. The AW’s ouster could lead to a surge in Bangladeshi-emanating Islamist, separatist, and terrorist threats against India like had previously been the case under the BNP and turn the country into a US vassal to Russia’s chagrin.

The BNP is desperate to come to power and therefore concocted the latest narrative about Bangladesh nowadays supposedly “belong[ing] to China, India, and Russia” in order to maximally appeal to the West from whom it expects political, financial, and organizational support for its planned Color Revolution. The US will be receptive to this rhetoric due to its well-known tensions with the Sino-Russo Entente, newly troubled ties with India, and natural interest in expanding its influence in the Global South.

In the event that this impending regime change plot leads to street clashes, which is certainly possible, then it’s predicted that decontextualized footage thereof will circulate across the Western media to misportray these scuffles as “unprovoked violence by the dictatorship against peaceful democrats”. Sanctions against more security officials than those presently targeted by such restrictions could soon follow, which could contribute to misleading folks into thinking that the government is illegitimate.

The purpose behind doing so would be to precondition them into expecting prolonged unrest and accepting more muscular Western policies against Bangladesh such as sectoral sanctions against the garment industry in order to stymie its growth and exacerbate socio-economic tensions. The basis upon which all of this could be implemented is the false narrative that the BNP just concocted alleging that their country is under tripartite Sino-Indo-Russo control with all that implies in the Western imagination.

As a quid pro quo for the comprehensive support that they’d be poised to receive in that scenario, the BNP would drastically curtail ties with those three multipolar Great Powers on the off chance that they oust the AW in order to fully pivot towards the West in the New Cold War. That bloc would probably allow them to promulgate Islamist policies to satiate their base’s demands, plus it could accelerate the radicalization of at-risk members of society, who’d then be wielded as Hybrid War weapons against India.

To be clear, the likelihood of the BNP ousting the AW is low, and the US might ultimately dump the former if the latter commits to tangibly recalibrating its geopolitical balancing in a more pro-Western direction in exchange for pressure relief. Prime Minister Hasina isn’t expected to budge on her principled multi-alignment policy, however, which could lead to the US redoubling its support of the BNP’s planned Color Revolution. The coming weeks will show whether this impending plot will lead to anything or not.