If the “Japanese Question” (for lack of a better term) isn’t soon peacefully resolved, then the risk of World War III breaking out in Northeast Asia will spike.
Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui published a timely article at publicly financed TASS on the 80th anniversary of the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal, which was Japan’s version of the Nuremberg Trials that most Westerners are unaware of. Zhang began by referencing facts about Japan’s remilitarization in violation of the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations as well as the Instrument of Surrender of Japan. These include various missile and naval developments, arms exports, and its 2026 Defense White Paper.
In connection with this, Zhang wrote that “Tokyo is also actively seeking participation in relevant NATO military mechanisms, accelerating its integration into the North Atlantic Alliance.” He then pointed out that “Japan justifies its colonial conquests and denies the justice of Taiwan’s return to China.” Perhaps most worryingly for China is that its historical rival, which is responsible for the genocide of around 35 million Chinese, is flirting with nuclear weapons and could mass-produce them if the decision is made.
In the face of the reemerging regional threat posed by Japan’s rapid remilitarization and nuke talk, Zhang concluded by declaring that “China and Russia stand ready, together with other countries committed to defending historical justice and the international legal order, to firmly uphold the correct understanding of the history of World War II, resolutely suppress any attempts to revive Japanese militarism, safeguard the hard-won peace, and promote the formation of a more just and rational international order.”
His ominous warning should be taken seriously since it also aligns with Russia’s assessment of Japan. Putin’s senior aide Nikolai Patrushev gave an interview to local media a year ago in which he essentially argued that “Japan Will Play A Much Greater Role In Advancing The American Agenda In Asia”. It was then observed near year’s end after new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s scandalous comments about Japan’s military commitment to Taiwan that “Japan Might Challenge China Sooner Than Expected”.
Late last month, “A Top Russian Diplomat Touched Upon The Growing Threat That Japan Poses To His Country”, shortly after which “Putin Lamented The Worsening Of Russian-Japanese Relations” in mid-August during his trip to the Russian Far East. Without using the following terminology, he and the Commander of the Pacific Fleet basically pointed out that Japan is poised to play a leading role in what can be called AUKUS+, which is the US’ emerging NATO-like military network for containing China.
Japan’s rapid remilitarization and nuke talk therefore pose a serious threat to Russia too, which can either be preemptively neutralized by the US radically reforming AUKUS+ to remove Japan’s leading role therein as proposed here, or Russia and China might preemptively do so via military means. They’d have the international legal right to do so per Japan’s status as an “enemy state” in the UN Charter, but in that scenario, the US might threaten retaliation due to their mutual defense pact, thus risking World War III.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and tests used to be the cause of regional crises in Northeast Asia, but now Japan has replaced its role through its remilitarization and own nuke talk. Whereas North Korea’s aforesaid moves only threaten one nuclear-armed state, Japan’s threaten two, and their shared American rival is its mutual defense ally. If the “Japanese Question” (for lack of a better term) isn’t soon peacefully resolved, then the risk of World War III breaking out in Northeast Asia will spike.
All that remains is to hope that China shows itself more resolute with Japan than Russia did with Germany.
While I am against Chinese Communists and I think Chinese Communists did far less than they claimed during WW2, Japan has itself to blame. Japan was penalized by American bombing and occupation; however, Japan made minimal compensation to China. Russia invaded Manchuria (China's territory), destroyed 700K Japanese grouping (mostly undertrained Korean conscripts) looted Japanese industrial investment in Manchuria and North Korea. Then Russia occupied the Kuril Islands (the "four northern islands"). The unfinished business between Russia and Japan is minor, compared to the unfinished business between China and Japan.
Rhetoric and emotions aside, however, I don't think China has much leverage over Japan when all aspects are considered. On the economic front, Japan has better technology backed by better R&D and better education. On the military front, Japan built its own airplane and aircraft carrier well before the Communists conquered continental China. China holds a few key rare resources, and China can intercept Japan's marine shipping. Japan can use conventional weapons to severely damage industries and cities in China's coastal areas. Japanese and American companies pay the best severance packages when they leave China. Taiwanese and Chinese native businessmen escape overseas overnight and leave employees unpaid for their regular wages, with machinery pre-sold to equipment vendors. Historical hatred has gradually faded due to population rotation. Were it not for the Chinese Communists' continuous propaganda, China today would not have that much anti-Japanese hatred. Ordinary Chinese have far more other things to worry about than how to treat Japan.
Therefore, it's probably just a show. However, I see no quick solution for the underlying problem as long as Japan stays occupied and China remains under the control of Chinese Communists.