16 Comments
User's avatar
Paulo Aguiar's avatar

Let’s be blunt: the U.S. won’t back peace unless peace serves its interests. And right now, the smart move (for Trump especially) isn’t some feel-good diplomacy, but a cold, transactional recalibration.

Trump’s framing is revealing. He’s not selling idealism; he’s selling a deal. And the deal is this: if Russia plays ball, it gets access to U.S. trade and a shot at rebuilding ties that could sideline Europe and neuter NATO’s eastward ambitions. That’s not “capitulation”; it’s strategic leverage. Meanwhile, Ukraine? It’s useful only as long as it serves a purpose. Once it starts blocking bigger gains, like sidelining China or splitting Russia from Iran, it becomes expendable.

Zelensky might think he can play hardball, but he’s running out of cards. The West’s appetite for endless support is waning, and Trump’s already hinting he’s ready to cut bait. If Putin dangles just enough compromise to justify a pivot, and Trump sees legacy, trade, and a Nobel all on the table, who do you think he’ll pressure?

KC Erasmus's avatar

And when Trump goes which might be sooner than later?

Do you honestly think that Putin yrusts the US to honour any agreement past the Trump Presidency?

It's because the West took Putin for a fool, that they find themselves in the predicament they are currently in, be it the US or Europe.

Tx101's avatar

That's exactly right

Kennewick Man's avatar

Trump is the only one who can finish this war. Th original design of the conflict with the NATO approaches and endless support for Ukraine assures a war forever scenario. I am standing by my original evaluation made at the very start of this conflict: 'This war can end only two ways: A Russian victory or a nuclear war.'

Parti's avatar

Trump should get rid of Zelenksy. That would trigger elections and the Ukrainians (or should I say Ukrainian widows) get to decide whether they want peace and neutrality. It's clear Thait Zelenksy isn't intersted in peace otherwise he would undermine it with any public announcement he has been making for months now.

Feral Finster's avatar

So what's stopping Trump? Simple - he doesn't want to.

Parti's avatar

It's not that easy to get rid of an elected government official haha.

Feral Finster's avatar

What, Trump has no leverage over Ukraine, no way to pressure a resignation? Don't make me laugh.

Parti's avatar

And how would the world, in particular Europe, look at him, I he did that?

Feral Finster's avatar

They can cry and scream. But that is all. Anyway, you're just underscoring how Trump is weak and easily manipulated.

Nakayama's avatar

Mr. Putin should look for small deals from trustworthy partners, not large deals from dishonest people. That honest young George Washington died long ago is probably dead in the US culture as well.

Qlqxxqq's avatar

In my humble opinion, Trump can’t make up his mind because he’s not in charge of the situation, never was! He Israeli first, not MAGA! Trump takes his orders from the neocons/ zionist. There’s a couple of cells in my body that believes he wants to do the right thing. Just a couple.

KC Erasmus's avatar

Does Trump really understand the essence of both the conflict and the depth of negotiation it would require to bring it to an end, or is he just saying so, as he has done in the past only to flip-flop later?

In my opinion Trump wants what he wants, not a pragmatic and sustainable outcome.

I can't remember if it was WaPo or the NYT who recently discovered that even Russian troops want what Putin wants, sp its nothing out of the ordinary or ahainst the grain of public opinion.

With this understanding and support of the Russian people, Trump had beyter start taking these realities into account, in regard to the importance of what Putin says.

barnabus's avatar

US-Russia trade is not very large, so there is limited purchase there. Most of the sanctioned Russian trade is to the EU, EU-Free Trade Association, Japan and S Korea. Most of the frozen Russian deposits is also in EU & Switzerland. The last I heard was that EU was planning to send these frozen deposits to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or truce or peace treaty.

charles leone's avatar

It's a stalemate. In the case of Zelensky and Netanyahu, there is no genuine interest in compromise because they both have a gun pointed to their heads by the ultra-right wing Nazis in their inner circle. They have no options.

Both Netanyahu and Zelensky scoff at a ceasefire. Netanyahu violates them and Zelensky uses them to re-arm and prepare for another offensive, or seeks reinforcements from the British, French or German 'Coalition of the Cannon Fodder'.

The war could end if Trump decided to save the American taxpayer $billions$ by cutting off Israel and Ukraine from Uncle Saps welfare rolls and stopped sending expensive weapons systems.

A Skeptic's avatar

Thanks for your great work Andrew!

We've shared the link on our daily report.

A Skeptic War Reports

https://askeptic.substack.com/