Poland is at a geostrategic crossroads amidst the nascent Russian-US “New Détente” whereby it can either remain a stalwart American ally despite its misgivings about the rapid Russian-US rapprochement, rely more on France to balance the US, or pivot away from the US towards France.
Why would the Russians invade Europe, after leaving it some decades ago? To burden themselves with having to rule over hostile populations? To lay hands on our non-existent natural riches? Or because they are envious of our multicultural hellholes? All this warmongering is baseless.
Because Americans are retreating from Europe to off-shore balancing. The game for a new deal in Europe is on, and all serious countries like Turkey, Russia or Germany are playing.
Right now Turkye and India have become very dangerous jokers in the oack as they attempt to play sides off against each other in the hope of gaining something, which will be little more than resentment and mistrust.
In matters military, France and Poland have some shared history, but all that was a long time ago.
I can’t immediately think of a country that’s relied on France to come to its aid in time of crisis, and has subsequently congratulated itself on its wisdom, foresight and perspicacity in so doing.
Donald Tusk was just recently brought down by a writer who moved out of Poland. He wrote that the investigation of the 2010 plane disaster where 96 Polish government officers died inside Russia was handed over by Tusk to Russia. He wrote that Tusk is actually “not Polish” meaning that he refused to represent Polish national interests.
A review of a factual, very detailed report shows that the TU-154M plane that carried the large Polish delegations to Smolensk, Russia from Warsaw was in good working order until the crash occurred close to the runaway on 4/10/2010. The weather was rapidly going down; thick fog was moving in after the 9:27 am takeoff from Warsaw and the crew of the plane was warned to change the landing site by ground control. The plane’s automatic warning system warned the crew to abort the landing in the last minutes while it was still possible. Visibility was down to around 500 meters (1600 feet). The report quotes the results of both, the Russian and Polish investigations. The crew simply did not have enough visibility to make corrections for instrumental discrepancies and misjudged the altitude of the plane in the last minutes. They also struggled with their own autopilot system which was left on for the landing, making corrections more difficult. The trees were allowed to overgrow before the runaway but this presented no problems until this disaster. Shortly before the arrival of the Polish plane, 90 minutes before the tragedy, a Yak-40 jet already aborted landing at the same Smolensk airport because of the weather and redirected to Moscow. Some indications are that crew of the TU-154M was under pressure not to change landing site because of the high-ranking Polish government officers on the plane. Nothing was perfect at this Russian military landing field designated for mixed use and this would be perfectly in line with Eastern European experiences at the time.
The Poles made an error relying on the French once before with disastrous results. I would not rely on the French for anything other than a good crepe and wine. They are the world's supreme narcissists, and France is the leading refuge for pedophiles.
Shrinowski said once that Europe will be on their knees and Poland will be the last one who will crawl to Russia and ask for mercy. I don't think he was wrong. Let Russia win in Ukraine and gain the capacity and resources to become a proper spoiler for Europe. Fun times ahead.
I personally don't foresee Poland begging Russia for mercy in any scenario since the likelihood of another war between them is practically nil due to the Russian-US balance of nuclear power and America's nuclear umbrella covering Poland per Article 5.
I also don't foresee Russia deploying troops on the Polish-Ukrainian border, let alone its armed forces getting anywhere near there (not counting the Polish-Ukrainian-Belarusian tripoint since Russia has a military presence in Belarus).
The best-case scenario in my estimation is that Polish-Russian ties gradually improve sometime after US-Russian ones meaningfully (key qualifier) do, but even in that case, Poland will still retain NATO's third-largest army and its formidable border defenses.
Let's see how Russia will react towards the EU once the war ends. Poland still imports a lot from Russia. Steel, fertilizer, aluminum just to name a few. Time will tell if Russia is going to hurt the EU.
Alright, but that's not at all what Zhirinovsky meant, he usually implied military scenarios, not trade wars as far as I'm aware. I can't imagine that the comment you quoted was in the context that you're now claiming.
In the struggle over European public opinion on Ukraine, America cannot tolerate Gallic meddling and grandstanding. France must make peace with their subordinate position as an American ally (meaning vassal) or the United States must remove that protection from France. Germany knows very well it must obey the United States in strategic matters, but France has been fooling itself about its own reality for years.
Historically, the US let the French persist in their great power fantasy because we understand their vanity and pride. For much of the post-war period we indulged the French because US foreign policy was never at systemic risk from the French. Now, things have changed. Trump is locked in a death grip struggle with the professional managerial class at home and abroad. Although Trump was elected to a term of four years, anything Trump can accomplish must be completed before the midterm elections.
After the midterms, Trump (almost certainly) will be vulnerable to impeachment again. All Trump's radical anti-deep state initiatives including Ukraine must be made irreversible by that time or he will fail. So, time is of the essence and the clock is ticking.
Now, France has emerged as the leader of European elites who are determined to prevent peace in Ukraine on American terms. The possibility of indulging France can no longer be admitted. Trump must target French exports and even moot the possibility of sanctions if French diplomatic meddling continues. Here I would draw your attention to French mumblings about extending French nuclear protection to other EU countries or their encouragement of Poland to seek nuclear status with French assistance.
The US must make clear that nuclear proliferation is any form in Europe will not be permitted and in fact will be prevented using all means necessary. Russia should be invited to join in such a declaration.
It is way past time to take off the gloves as we handle our European allies and try to again save Europe from a suicidal general war.
Good fences make good neighbors. Actually it is NOT a bad idea for Poland and the Baltics to invest resources to build up border defenses. Whether Russians have the intention to invade Europe can be argued either way, but nobody can argue that Russians do NOT have the ability to invade Europe. From a national sovereignty point of view, such a defensive mentality is a must. Defense is the national government's number one job, not social welfare. Once they have done their homework, they will feel better and more relaxed. If feasible, Russia and Belarus should build up similar defensive work along the borders. One does not always need all-around walls; a pillbox 100 meters behind the border can be equally good sometimes. You want to trade? only at designated border trading markets. Tourism? only by visa application and screening. There is nothing wrong about all that. No matter what Russians do, they cannot prevent the appearance of another Napoleon or Hitler. Russians have to be prepared to deal with that, now or later. Better now.
The sheer phantasmagoria of what's unfolding is staggering. Why on Earth would Russia ever dream of invading Europe, a continent that is in decline and absolutely nothing in it that would be of any use to Russia?
Well, there is one reason. Seeing that Europe, having allowed itself to degenerate to a sorry state of entitled brats, with no industry to speak of, now sees the only way out of its misery in breaking up and pillaging Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus using militarization and some form of invasion, Russia might just conclude that it's now - while Europe is weak and has lost the US's unconditional support - a good time to take the m-effers out before they attempt yet another invasion of Russia.
In that sense, the 'defensive' fortifications would be the ultimate self-fulfilled prophecy.
The sheer craziness of what's happening is hardly believable.
Poland has one of the lowest fertility rates on earth and no immigration. Yes, immigration in Europe has been a disaster. However, this combo ensure that Polands population will shrink dramatically in the next 20 years. Eventually the country will become unimportant and obsolete, just like the rest of Eastern Europe. I personally think it's crazy to arm a dying nation. One would think Europe could invest the money into the future and become conpetitive in things that matter....
Poland survived 123 years of tripartite Imperial partitions and two German genocides during both World Wars, it's therefore likely to survive very low fertility rates, though its population will probably bottom out at some much lower level after some time.
It'll never be "unimportant and obsolete" though due to its location, which is astride North-South and East-West trade routes in Europe. Moreover, Poles are very economically productive and innovative, which is proven by them having the largest regional economy.
While their GDP might decline in parallel with their naturally declining population, provided of course that there isn't "replacement migration" (likely with Ukrainians and a mix of Global South people in that scenario), I expect it to still remain pretty decent.
It's true that the demographic situation of Poland is dismal, but its fertility rate is not really worse than Germany, Italy or much of the rest of Europe. Even leaders such as France and Denmark are well below replacement levels, and even that is heavily bolstered by poorly integrated immigrants' births.
As for immigration, Poland has successfully (so far it seems) integrated over 1.5M Ukrainians and around a couple of hundred thousand Belarusians and Russians, who have been very productive and not burdening to the economy.
So it is, the U.S./NATO strategy hesitated for a second than located the next sucker as Ukraine is depopulated and on the edge of military collapse. Of course, we can look at the act as a soft landing, saving face after a clear strategical disaster in Ukraine. Poland shares borders with Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Belarus and Ukraine an optimal geographical location to do some more “gambling with WWIII”. AND POLAND IS ALREADY A NATO COUNTRY, AUTHORIZED TO TRIGGER A NUCLEAR WAR!!! At the end our choice is either Populist takeover of ALL U.S./NATO governments or nuclear war. We are simply looking at a rearrangement of the original plan.
Why would the Russians invade Europe, after leaving it some decades ago? To burden themselves with having to rule over hostile populations? To lay hands on our non-existent natural riches? Or because they are envious of our multicultural hellholes? All this warmongering is baseless.
Just think of the Socialist financial policy burden the Russians would have to take on if they invaded Europe.
It's enough to make anyone run in completely the opposite direction.
Because Americans are retreating from Europe to off-shore balancing. The game for a new deal in Europe is on, and all serious countries like Turkey, Russia or Germany are playing.
Right now Turkye and India have become very dangerous jokers in the oack as they attempt to play sides off against each other in the hope of gaining something, which will be little more than resentment and mistrust.
In matters military, France and Poland have some shared history, but all that was a long time ago.
I can’t immediately think of a country that’s relied on France to come to its aid in time of crisis, and has subsequently congratulated itself on its wisdom, foresight and perspicacity in so doing.
Suwałki Gap looks easier to traverse than Ardennes. Just saying.
I am afraid, but Poland is run by morons IQ65 or lower.
Donald Tusk was just recently brought down by a writer who moved out of Poland. He wrote that the investigation of the 2010 plane disaster where 96 Polish government officers died inside Russia was handed over by Tusk to Russia. He wrote that Tusk is actually “not Polish” meaning that he refused to represent Polish national interests.
A review of a factual, very detailed report shows that the TU-154M plane that carried the large Polish delegations to Smolensk, Russia from Warsaw was in good working order until the crash occurred close to the runaway on 4/10/2010. The weather was rapidly going down; thick fog was moving in after the 9:27 am takeoff from Warsaw and the crew of the plane was warned to change the landing site by ground control. The plane’s automatic warning system warned the crew to abort the landing in the last minutes while it was still possible. Visibility was down to around 500 meters (1600 feet). The report quotes the results of both, the Russian and Polish investigations. The crew simply did not have enough visibility to make corrections for instrumental discrepancies and misjudged the altitude of the plane in the last minutes. They also struggled with their own autopilot system which was left on for the landing, making corrections more difficult. The trees were allowed to overgrow before the runaway but this presented no problems until this disaster. Shortly before the arrival of the Polish plane, 90 minutes before the tragedy, a Yak-40 jet already aborted landing at the same Smolensk airport because of the weather and redirected to Moscow. Some indications are that crew of the TU-154M was under pressure not to change landing site because of the high-ranking Polish government officers on the plane. Nothing was perfect at this Russian military landing field designated for mixed use and this would be perfectly in line with Eastern European experiences at the time.
The Poles made an error relying on the French once before with disastrous results. I would not rely on the French for anything other than a good crepe and wine. They are the world's supreme narcissists, and France is the leading refuge for pedophiles.
Shrinowski said once that Europe will be on their knees and Poland will be the last one who will crawl to Russia and ask for mercy. I don't think he was wrong. Let Russia win in Ukraine and gain the capacity and resources to become a proper spoiler for Europe. Fun times ahead.
I personally don't foresee Poland begging Russia for mercy in any scenario since the likelihood of another war between them is practically nil due to the Russian-US balance of nuclear power and America's nuclear umbrella covering Poland per Article 5.
I also don't foresee Russia deploying troops on the Polish-Ukrainian border, let alone its armed forces getting anywhere near there (not counting the Polish-Ukrainian-Belarusian tripoint since Russia has a military presence in Belarus).
The best-case scenario in my estimation is that Polish-Russian ties gradually improve sometime after US-Russian ones meaningfully (key qualifier) do, but even in that case, Poland will still retain NATO's third-largest army and its formidable border defenses.
Let's see how Russia will react towards the EU once the war ends. Poland still imports a lot from Russia. Steel, fertilizer, aluminum just to name a few. Time will tell if Russia is going to hurt the EU.
Alright, but that's not at all what Zhirinovsky meant, he usually implied military scenarios, not trade wars as far as I'm aware. I can't imagine that the comment you quoted was in the context that you're now claiming.
In the struggle over European public opinion on Ukraine, America cannot tolerate Gallic meddling and grandstanding. France must make peace with their subordinate position as an American ally (meaning vassal) or the United States must remove that protection from France. Germany knows very well it must obey the United States in strategic matters, but France has been fooling itself about its own reality for years.
Historically, the US let the French persist in their great power fantasy because we understand their vanity and pride. For much of the post-war period we indulged the French because US foreign policy was never at systemic risk from the French. Now, things have changed. Trump is locked in a death grip struggle with the professional managerial class at home and abroad. Although Trump was elected to a term of four years, anything Trump can accomplish must be completed before the midterm elections.
After the midterms, Trump (almost certainly) will be vulnerable to impeachment again. All Trump's radical anti-deep state initiatives including Ukraine must be made irreversible by that time or he will fail. So, time is of the essence and the clock is ticking.
Now, France has emerged as the leader of European elites who are determined to prevent peace in Ukraine on American terms. The possibility of indulging France can no longer be admitted. Trump must target French exports and even moot the possibility of sanctions if French diplomatic meddling continues. Here I would draw your attention to French mumblings about extending French nuclear protection to other EU countries or their encouragement of Poland to seek nuclear status with French assistance.
The US must make clear that nuclear proliferation is any form in Europe will not be permitted and in fact will be prevented using all means necessary. Russia should be invited to join in such a declaration.
It is way past time to take off the gloves as we handle our European allies and try to again save Europe from a suicidal general war.
Good fences make good neighbors. Actually it is NOT a bad idea for Poland and the Baltics to invest resources to build up border defenses. Whether Russians have the intention to invade Europe can be argued either way, but nobody can argue that Russians do NOT have the ability to invade Europe. From a national sovereignty point of view, such a defensive mentality is a must. Defense is the national government's number one job, not social welfare. Once they have done their homework, they will feel better and more relaxed. If feasible, Russia and Belarus should build up similar defensive work along the borders. One does not always need all-around walls; a pillbox 100 meters behind the border can be equally good sometimes. You want to trade? only at designated border trading markets. Tourism? only by visa application and screening. There is nothing wrong about all that. No matter what Russians do, they cannot prevent the appearance of another Napoleon or Hitler. Russians have to be prepared to deal with that, now or later. Better now.
The sheer phantasmagoria of what's unfolding is staggering. Why on Earth would Russia ever dream of invading Europe, a continent that is in decline and absolutely nothing in it that would be of any use to Russia?
Well, there is one reason. Seeing that Europe, having allowed itself to degenerate to a sorry state of entitled brats, with no industry to speak of, now sees the only way out of its misery in breaking up and pillaging Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus using militarization and some form of invasion, Russia might just conclude that it's now - while Europe is weak and has lost the US's unconditional support - a good time to take the m-effers out before they attempt yet another invasion of Russia.
In that sense, the 'defensive' fortifications would be the ultimate self-fulfilled prophecy.
The sheer craziness of what's happening is hardly believable.
Does this mean that Poland will have to step up to the plate as the West's next proxy to take on Russia?
I think any "New Detente " is stillborn.
Poland has one of the lowest fertility rates on earth and no immigration. Yes, immigration in Europe has been a disaster. However, this combo ensure that Polands population will shrink dramatically in the next 20 years. Eventually the country will become unimportant and obsolete, just like the rest of Eastern Europe. I personally think it's crazy to arm a dying nation. One would think Europe could invest the money into the future and become conpetitive in things that matter....
Poland survived 123 years of tripartite Imperial partitions and two German genocides during both World Wars, it's therefore likely to survive very low fertility rates, though its population will probably bottom out at some much lower level after some time.
It'll never be "unimportant and obsolete" though due to its location, which is astride North-South and East-West trade routes in Europe. Moreover, Poles are very economically productive and innovative, which is proven by them having the largest regional economy.
While their GDP might decline in parallel with their naturally declining population, provided of course that there isn't "replacement migration" (likely with Ukrainians and a mix of Global South people in that scenario), I expect it to still remain pretty decent.
It's true that the demographic situation of Poland is dismal, but its fertility rate is not really worse than Germany, Italy or much of the rest of Europe. Even leaders such as France and Denmark are well below replacement levels, and even that is heavily bolstered by poorly integrated immigrants' births.
As for immigration, Poland has successfully (so far it seems) integrated over 1.5M Ukrainians and around a couple of hundred thousand Belarusians and Russians, who have been very productive and not burdening to the economy.
So it is, the U.S./NATO strategy hesitated for a second than located the next sucker as Ukraine is depopulated and on the edge of military collapse. Of course, we can look at the act as a soft landing, saving face after a clear strategical disaster in Ukraine. Poland shares borders with Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Belarus and Ukraine an optimal geographical location to do some more “gambling with WWIII”. AND POLAND IS ALREADY A NATO COUNTRY, AUTHORIZED TO TRIGGER A NUCLEAR WAR!!! At the end our choice is either Populist takeover of ALL U.S./NATO governments or nuclear war. We are simply looking at a rearrangement of the original plan.