The ICJ Ruling Is Symbolic & Won’t Substantively Change Anything
Innocent people sometimes suffer before the world’s eyes while their tormentors escape punishment for their crimes. This is due to key players calculating that the costs of intervening far outweigh the tangible benefits to their interests. That’s just the way that the world works, and everyone should be aware of this reality.
Many across the world are cheering the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling ordering Israel to prevent genocide, effectively address the adverse living conditions in Gaza without delay, and punish those who publicly call for genocide, among a few other related demands. This was widely interpreted as extending legal credence to those who’ve described Israel’s collective punishment of the Palestinians as genocide, but the result is symbolic and won’t substantively change anything.
Everyone has already made up their mind about which side to blame for the humanitarian catastrophe that’s unfolded in Gaza over nearly the past one-third of a year since Hamas’ sneak attack sparked another war with Israel. Nobody who already supports Israel is going to flip around to supporting Hamas only because of what a panel of international judges just ruled. Israel also isn’t expected to comply with their orders either since there aren’t any credible enforcement mechanisms to punish it for not doing so.
The UNSC is hamstrung by Israel’s American ally vetoing any resolution to that end, and no country wants to risk a war with that nuclear-armed self-professed Jewish State by militarily intervening to relieve the Palestinians’ immeasurable suffering. The only two actors that have unilaterally tried to the reduce pressure upon those people are Hezbollah and the Houthis, but even their military actions have been restrained given the first’s reluctance to trigger a larger war and the latter’s limited capabilities.
The most that will realistically happen is that media outlets reference the ICJ ruling in their forthcoming reports about this conflict, but that can’t be taken for granted since the Mainstream Media fears the financial and reputational consequences from the powerful Israeli lobby if they go too far with this. Non-Western media and the Alt-Media Community are more likely to remind their readers of this decision at every relevant opportunity, but public opinion is still powerless to change the course of events.
International Relations aren’t a Marvel film where the good guys always win no matter how much many have been indoctrinated into thinking otherwise. The bad guys sometimes come out on top. Innocent people suffer before the world’s eyes while their tormentors escape punishment for their crimes. This is due to key players calculating that the costs of intervening far outweigh the tangible benefits to their interests. That’s just the way that the world works, and everyone should be aware of this reality.
The cultivation of false expectations like those that many have after the ICJ ruling inevitably lead to deep disappointment, after which people might become full of despair and feel hopeless. For their own sanity, they might double down on their activist activities, such as boycotting Israeli products and companies that do business with that country in this particular case. Others might organize peaceful protests within their local legal limits in order to feel that they’re doing something to raise more awareness about this.
In any case, the only way that anything will ever change is if key players’ calculations change first, but Egypt – which is the most important actor in this respect – won’t even open its borders for fleeing refugees in violation of international law due to its security-centric policy. It’s therefore unrealistic to imagine that it’ll go to war against Israel to enforce the ICJ ruling. This means that the only way that the Palestinians’ suffering will stop is if Israel decides to do so per another ceasefire or some other deal.
There’s also the faint chance that a Northern Front might open up with Hezbollah in Lebanon, after which Israel might reduce some of its bombings in Gaza, or perhaps even be dealt such a devastating defeat that it stops both wars out of desperation to save its existence in the most extreme scenario. Nobody should get their hopes up for any of that, but it also can’t be ruled out either. Whatever ends up happening, it’ll be completely independent of the ICJ ruling, which is purely symbolic as explained.