The Latest Hungarian-Ukrainian Tensions Are Troubling

Ukraine is much more of a credible threat to Hungary than the inverse.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban revealed after a meeting with the Defense Council that Ukraine is meddling in the ongoing Hungarian referendum over whether to support Ukraine’s EU membership plans. He also accused the opposition of unprecedentedly colluding with them. This coincided with Hungary reportedly downing a Ukrainian drone, which followed tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions after Ukraine accused Hungary of spying on it and Hungary accused Ukraine of pushing hostile propaganda.

The larger context concerns Hungary’s principled refusal to send arms to Ukraine or allow its territory to be used by others to that end due to its pro-peace policy. As can be evinced above, it’s also against Ukraine joining the EU, the reason being that Ukraine discriminates against the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia/Transcarpathia. Even though Orban has repeatedly explained how the aforesaid policies align with Hungarian national interests, Zelensky and many in the West accuse him of being Putin’s puppet.

This was the tacit pretext upon which Ukraine let a gas deal with Russia lapse at the start of the year to the detriment of downstream customers like Hungary and Slovakia, the second of which began following in Budapest’s geopolitical footsteps after Prime Minister Roberto Fico’s return to power in late 2023. Ukraine’s move was therefore clearly meant to punish them for their pro-peace policies, which Ukraine believes undermine European unity towards the conflict and could one day obstruct EU financial aid.

The latest tensions are more troubling than any of the aforesaid since they concern security issues. Mutual mistrust was boiling for a while as detailed above but it’s now taking on a new dimension. Given their deteriorating ties since 2022, it was to be expected that they’d spy on each other, but few could have expected Ukraine’s innuendo that Hungary might be preparing an invasion and Hungary’s innuendo that Ukraine might try to orchestrate a Color Revolution. These claims deserve to be scrutinized.

Ukraine’s build upon smears that Hungary is a Russian proxy and might therefore be ordered to open a “second front” sometime in the future on the pretext of protecting its co-ethnics. While they’re indeed being discriminated against, the costs of a Hungarian military intervention in their support far outweigh the benefits. Hungary would ostracize itself from the West, open itself up to crippling sanctions and possibly even allied attack, and have to incorporate or forcibly expel Zakarpattia’s Ukrainian population.

Hungary’s claims are more believable since Ukraine already behaves as a Western proxy. Former Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov boasted in January 2023 that “We’re carrying out NATO’s mission today, without shedding their blood.” The Wall Street Journal then reported in March 2024 that Ukraine was fighting Russia in Sudan, while last summer, a GUR official claimed credit for a deadly Tuareg attack on Wagner in Mali. It thus wouldn’t be surprising if Ukraine is helping the West undermine Russian-friendly Orban.

With this insight in mind, Ukraine is much more of a credible threat to Hungary than the inverse. In fact, Ukraine might exploit the latest tensions as the pretext for ramping up pressure on Hungary, which could in turn prompt more European countries to do the same. Any legal action against the Hungarian opposition for their collusion with the Ukrainian special services might also lead to serious EU sanctions. Hungary must therefore brace itself for major meddling ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.