The Latest Malian Crisis Risks Spiraling Into A Regional War

There’s a growing risk that Tuareg separatism might once again spread from Mali to Niger, and radical Islamist violence could spread further into there and Burkina Faso than it already has, which could prompt direct military interventions by Algeria, Nigeria, France, and/or the US.

It’s been a week since the latest insurgency in Mali by terrorist-designated “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) Tuareg separatists and “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM) radical Islamists sparked the latest Malian Crisis. They’re suspected being backed to various extents by France, Algeria, Ukraine, and the US in pursuit of the five goals that were enumerated here. If the crisis worsens, then it might spill over into Alliance of Sahel States (AES) members Burkina Faso and Niger, thus leading to a regional war.

Niger experienced several Tuareg revolts in the past that could be repeated in the future if the FLA’s affiliates there are emboldened by its success in Mali. JNIM is also active in Niger, as is the Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP), which has a presence in southeastern Mali. Both rival terrorist-designated radical Islamists recently clashed in Niger too. Complicating regional security even more, JNIM dominates northeastern Burkina Faso, so all three AES allies are afflicted by what’s already a regional crisis.

That crisis could spiral into a regional war if there’s another Tuareg revolt in Niger, JNIM and/or ISSP expand their presence there to threaten the nearby capital of Niamey, and/or JNIM steamrolls deeper into Burkina Faso upon being emboldened by its success in Mali. Mali is considered to have the strongest military within the AES, yet counterinsurgency still remains a challenge for the reasons listed here, which are likely even more acute as regards its allies in spite of Wagner and the Africa Corps helping them too.

Any West African War scenario derived from the latest Malian Crisis as explained above probably wouldn’t be limited to those three countries but could possibly prompt direct military intervention from France, the US, Algeria, and even Nigeria. In reverse order, Nigeria fears Niger’s takeover or at least destabilization by terrorists, which could empower its own such terrorists in the north, thus threatening the Christian-majority south even more than it already is and/or de facto partitioning the country.

As for Algeria, although it’s helping Mali’s Tuareg separatists for the Machiavellian reasons listed here, it doesn’t want to see an independent Tuareg state arise from Mali nor especially not a transnational one extending into Niger since this could embolden its own Tuareg separatists. The US and France, meanwhile, have a history of exploiting regional terrorist concerns to justify military interventions in third countries like Libya, Mali, and Syria. All four might therefore intervene in any West African War.

The US was reportedly trying to negotiate a deal with Mali before the latest insurgency-turned-crisis whereby its drones from neighboring Cote d’Ivoire and/or nearby Ghana would assist the junta with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance via flights over the country’s airspace. These bases could soon be used for carrying out offensive operations and possibly even hosting warplanes. Likewise, France could always return to its former bases in the region, albeit with them remaining under local control.

The stage is therefore set for the West African Crisis, which developed from the latest Malian Crisis that was sparked by its latest insurgency, evolving into a West African War in which France, the US, Algeria, and/or Nigeria (the last two in possible coordination with the first two) might directly intervene. The precedent is none other than Mali’s 2012-2013 crisis where Islamic radicals hijacked a prior Tuareg insurgency before France dislodged them. History might not repeat itself, but this time, it might rhyme.