Russia tacitly acknowledges that June’s parliamentary elections represent a “Battle for Armenia” just like Hungary’s own later this month represent a “Battle for Hungary”.
If Iran escapes from this war with an honourable tie, TRIPP will be dead in the water. Indeed, if she emerges with all her borders intact, and secure, TRIPP will be toast. I think that would deter Türkiye from acting precipitously, seeking a deal with Iran over the Zangezur Corridor.
I respectfully don't think that Iran is going to risk war with Azerbaijan, which has proven its formidableness in ground operations in 2020 and again in 2023, and thus possibly also its Turkish ally whose armed forces are even more formidable and much larger.
Azerbaijan is indeed vulnerable due to how easily its resource-exporting-dependent economy could collapse through targeted drone and missile strikes, but Iran has taken one heck of a beating during this war, and they've also used a lot of missile stockpile too.
I know that they likely still have more than the US and Israel claim, but still, Iran isn't going to be in any shape to fight Azerbaijan and possibly also Turkiye anytime soon. If anything, those two will likely be emboldened to accelerate implementation of TRIPP, not deterred.
Andrew, I don't think neither that Azerbaijan will risk a war against Iran. As you say, two Iranian missiles and its economy collapse. But more over, Azerbaijan attacking Iran could be the perfect justification for Russia to solve all its problems in south Caucasus and central Asia. It's a move of 250 km in plain.
Turkey will not dare moving in this case.
You can see that Azerbaijan remain perfectly still and nice with all the current traffic between Russia and Iran.
Agreed, and I would add that Alyiev leads a brittle regime with dwindling political capital from the "winner effect" of Karabagh. He seems to be in a bind: he must "push the envelope" to satisfy western backers, but not push his luck. Never get into a fight with someone that has less to lose than you do, especially when you've got two such neighbors. Hypothesize this scenario: he give's Russia/Iran a reason to intervene and they hand Karabagh back to the Armenians (conditionally) to cement an Armenian client.
I used the word tie advisedly because anything other than a loss for Iran would change the balance of power in Central Asia irrevocably. It would enable Russia and China to gain easy access to Iran’s territory and thus (a) rearm and repair that country’s military prowess and her infrastructure, and (b) thwart Ankara’s ambition to create a Turkic-speaking arc in that critical region of Eurasia.
Moreover, in what would be a de facto reshuffling of global geopolitics and geoeconomics if Iran isn’t defeated, the BRI’s route through Chabahar, as is currently planned, will proceed unhindered, making a deal between Turkiye and Iran more likely, and hence securing Russia’s Black Sea flank.
More importantly though, Andrew, when the avoidance of defeat at the hands of America is tantamount to a (political) victory it will be easier for Russia to secure her southern flank and China to consolidate her power in Central Asia, thereby clipping America’s wings in her to attempt to gain hegemony over South East Asia, as envisaged in Trump’s National Security Strategy
I realise there are a lot of ‘if this then that’ combinations in such prognoses, but the above is as good or bad as any.
One can say everything on Poutine, absolutely everything . But seeing his action the last 30 years, nobody, absolutely nobody, ever never can say that he is a fool. Even if himself says that he has been fooled. He can mistake, he can be mistaken, he can be in a weak position, but he is not a fool. A fool don't take a country from hell to prosperity, dignity and power.
Finally, I think that he have no real respect for talkative and pretentious academics without responsibility. He is a action man, at the highest level and as such he has always been surrounded by a crowd of adviser each more prestigious and brillant than the others and they all were sure of vision.... diametrically opposed...
I even think that he uses those public advisers in making believe that they influence him only like kind of decoy and screen. As for Doughine, Bordachev, and others.
Armenia is a small country living amidst a large Muslim population. They need and get protection from Russia.
Aligned with Russia they have what Russia has. A large nuclear arsenal , Vast oil/gas /mineral resources of all kinds. ARMENIA is FO RTUNATE to have Rsssian potection.
It is increasingly difficult to understand Putin "Le jongleur" as he tries to keep as many balls up in the air as to invite a fall to the ground of all of them, simultaneously.
One thing is clear to me: a) there will be an EU army whose task will be to continue the Ukraine war as far as possible, and b) US-NATO will continue the encirclement of Russia from the South. How Russia will be able to fight on these two fronts is not known. Furthermore, what will be the price she will have to pay? Where is the BRICS advance in dedollarization? What is China's role in helping Russia?
Grosso modo, the result will be that either the EU or Russia will cease to exist. The remaining entity, if any, will become strategically insignificant. This will leave the US and China to collect the pieces.
Bravo BRICS, bravo SCO, bravo CSTO, bravo Eurasian Union, etc., all that remains of a foreign policy devoid of realism and unsupported by military force.
The reason the Soviet Bloc resisted for so long in the most dramatic Cold War was the discipline of its members. When the Soviets tried to relax that, the end quickly arrived. This is my offer of reflection to the current Russian leadership.
Actually, neither you or me or anybody have never understood Poutine.
For more than 30 years, he acted secretly, in terrible conditions, always in the week position. He always was secret and concealer. It's at this price, he succeeded in liberating his country from westerners, then from oligarchs, then from westerner "liberals", in mending links with China and Iran. He played poker for 35 years with wealthy and powerful giants and only with a pair of seven.
That reminds me all the kings who inherited devastated kingdom and made it great again.
France: Philippe Auguste, Charles VII, Henri IV
Those three had so terrible conditions that they were very secret and always surprising. Their enemies were so powerful that if they had known their intentions, they would had been broken.
I think it's the same for Poutine.
The three had excellent and brillant sons who continued their work.
Will the successor of Poutine, be a brillant, smart and resolute chief?
Indeed, the socio-economic conditions in Russia when Putin arrived to power were truly terrible. He skillfully created (?) a period of calm in Russia's relationships with the West and profited from it to improve the economic conditions. Possibly, the West may have given him a period of grace, hoping for a return to the good old Yeltsin times. While the French kings freed and consolidated France's borders, most of them even extended them; Putin showed inexplicable timidity in taking such actions for Russia. He allowed the CIA to de facto run Ukraine, abstained from preventing the Maidan setup, and let a weak Yanukovych be chased away by a bunch of agents and Ukrainian nationalists. The Soviet Union pursued the latter until the late 1950s, when they finally assassinated Bandera, and still the job had not been completed. Furthermore, he could have accepted the Donbass republics into Russia right after the Maidan coup, as many Russians on both sides of the border were hoping. This could have spared a lot of both Russian and Ukrainian lives and the destruction that came with the SMO. The man appears to be risk-averse and have a soft spot for the West and the Israelis.
If Iran escapes from this war with an honourable tie, TRIPP will be dead in the water. Indeed, if she emerges with all her borders intact, and secure, TRIPP will be toast. I think that would deter Türkiye from acting precipitously, seeking a deal with Iran over the Zangezur Corridor.
I respectfully don't think that Iran is going to risk war with Azerbaijan, which has proven its formidableness in ground operations in 2020 and again in 2023, and thus possibly also its Turkish ally whose armed forces are even more formidable and much larger.
Azerbaijan is indeed vulnerable due to how easily its resource-exporting-dependent economy could collapse through targeted drone and missile strikes, but Iran has taken one heck of a beating during this war, and they've also used a lot of missile stockpile too.
I know that they likely still have more than the US and Israel claim, but still, Iran isn't going to be in any shape to fight Azerbaijan and possibly also Turkiye anytime soon. If anything, those two will likely be emboldened to accelerate implementation of TRIPP, not deterred.
Andrew, I don't think neither that Azerbaijan will risk a war against Iran. As you say, two Iranian missiles and its economy collapse. But more over, Azerbaijan attacking Iran could be the perfect justification for Russia to solve all its problems in south Caucasus and central Asia. It's a move of 250 km in plain.
Turkey will not dare moving in this case.
You can see that Azerbaijan remain perfectly still and nice with all the current traffic between Russia and Iran.
Alyiev is ambitious....but smart...and wise
Agreed, and I would add that Alyiev leads a brittle regime with dwindling political capital from the "winner effect" of Karabagh. He seems to be in a bind: he must "push the envelope" to satisfy western backers, but not push his luck. Never get into a fight with someone that has less to lose than you do, especially when you've got two such neighbors. Hypothesize this scenario: he give's Russia/Iran a reason to intervene and they hand Karabagh back to the Armenians (conditionally) to cement an Armenian client.
And west is definitely blocked central Asia and south Russia.
Azerbaijan is a tiny , tiny hinge. With a tiny population.
It's not huge Ukraine with a big population and a huge border with UE.
I used the word tie advisedly because anything other than a loss for Iran would change the balance of power in Central Asia irrevocably. It would enable Russia and China to gain easy access to Iran’s territory and thus (a) rearm and repair that country’s military prowess and her infrastructure, and (b) thwart Ankara’s ambition to create a Turkic-speaking arc in that critical region of Eurasia.
Moreover, in what would be a de facto reshuffling of global geopolitics and geoeconomics if Iran isn’t defeated, the BRI’s route through Chabahar, as is currently planned, will proceed unhindered, making a deal between Turkiye and Iran more likely, and hence securing Russia’s Black Sea flank.
More importantly though, Andrew, when the avoidance of defeat at the hands of America is tantamount to a (political) victory it will be easier for Russia to secure her southern flank and China to consolidate her power in Central Asia, thereby clipping America’s wings in her to attempt to gain hegemony over South East Asia, as envisaged in Trump’s National Security Strategy
I realise there are a lot of ‘if this then that’ combinations in such prognoses, but the above is as good or bad as any.
One can say everything on Poutine, absolutely everything . But seeing his action the last 30 years, nobody, absolutely nobody, ever never can say that he is a fool. Even if himself says that he has been fooled. He can mistake, he can be mistaken, he can be in a weak position, but he is not a fool. A fool don't take a country from hell to prosperity, dignity and power.
Finally, I think that he have no real respect for talkative and pretentious academics without responsibility. He is a action man, at the highest level and as such he has always been surrounded by a crowd of adviser each more prestigious and brillant than the others and they all were sure of vision.... diametrically opposed...
I even think that he uses those public advisers in making believe that they influence him only like kind of decoy and screen. As for Doughine, Bordachev, and others.
Armenia is a small country living amidst a large Muslim population. They need and get protection from Russia.
Aligned with Russia they have what Russia has. A large nuclear arsenal , Vast oil/gas /mineral resources of all kinds. ARMENIA is FO RTUNATE to have Rsssian potection.
It is increasingly difficult to understand Putin "Le jongleur" as he tries to keep as many balls up in the air as to invite a fall to the ground of all of them, simultaneously.
One thing is clear to me: a) there will be an EU army whose task will be to continue the Ukraine war as far as possible, and b) US-NATO will continue the encirclement of Russia from the South. How Russia will be able to fight on these two fronts is not known. Furthermore, what will be the price she will have to pay? Where is the BRICS advance in dedollarization? What is China's role in helping Russia?
Grosso modo, the result will be that either the EU or Russia will cease to exist. The remaining entity, if any, will become strategically insignificant. This will leave the US and China to collect the pieces.
Bravo BRICS, bravo SCO, bravo CSTO, bravo Eurasian Union, etc., all that remains of a foreign policy devoid of realism and unsupported by military force.
The reason the Soviet Bloc resisted for so long in the most dramatic Cold War was the discipline of its members. When the Soviets tried to relax that, the end quickly arrived. This is my offer of reflection to the current Russian leadership.
Actually, neither you or me or anybody have never understood Poutine.
For more than 30 years, he acted secretly, in terrible conditions, always in the week position. He always was secret and concealer. It's at this price, he succeeded in liberating his country from westerners, then from oligarchs, then from westerner "liberals", in mending links with China and Iran. He played poker for 35 years with wealthy and powerful giants and only with a pair of seven.
That reminds me all the kings who inherited devastated kingdom and made it great again.
France: Philippe Auguste, Charles VII, Henri IV
Those three had so terrible conditions that they were very secret and always surprising. Their enemies were so powerful that if they had known their intentions, they would had been broken.
I think it's the same for Poutine.
The three had excellent and brillant sons who continued their work.
Will the successor of Poutine, be a brillant, smart and resolute chief?
Indeed, the socio-economic conditions in Russia when Putin arrived to power were truly terrible. He skillfully created (?) a period of calm in Russia's relationships with the West and profited from it to improve the economic conditions. Possibly, the West may have given him a period of grace, hoping for a return to the good old Yeltsin times. While the French kings freed and consolidated France's borders, most of them even extended them; Putin showed inexplicable timidity in taking such actions for Russia. He allowed the CIA to de facto run Ukraine, abstained from preventing the Maidan setup, and let a weak Yanukovych be chased away by a bunch of agents and Ukrainian nationalists. The Soviet Union pursued the latter until the late 1950s, when they finally assassinated Bandera, and still the job had not been completed. Furthermore, he could have accepted the Donbass republics into Russia right after the Maidan coup, as many Russians on both sides of the border were hoping. This could have spared a lot of both Russian and Ukrainian lives and the destruction that came with the SMO. The man appears to be risk-averse and have a soft spot for the West and the Israelis.
He really reminds me Charles VII. No king in France history began so low.
He did hugely. A true resurrection of the country and a true revolution like very few in an History.
His son Louis XI were also a man like Poutine, he didn't like wars, was ruthless and was a diplomatic genius.
Poutine did the first part of the job. Time has come to see if his successor will be good ....or not.
nice to hear that you have captured your reason.
Because you have been hard on Putin because he is weak, but now suddenly a real turn.
thumbs up, hats off, continue on that path you old bandit (in a positive sense)