The Somali Defense Minister’s request for Saudi Arabia to replicate its South Yemeni campaign in Somaliland coupled with reports about those two’s and Egypt’s impending alliance that would thus de facto include their Eritrean ally strongly suggest that something big might soon be afoot.
This constellation of major defense agreements cannot have come about overnight; moreover, the fact that it operates at variance with U.S. strategic aims vis-à-vis Israel is significant. Before 2021–3 the UAE–Saudi relationship, with some exceptions, had generally improved, with both sides respecting each other’s spheres of influence in Yemen (the Saudis in the north, the Emiratis along the coast). Relations began to crack as doubts about the Biden administration’s commitment to the coalition there, as well as the incipient U.S.–Iran détente, prompted a renewal of Saudi–Iran ties, including via China and the restoration of Saudi–Qatari relations. So arguably U.S. policy under Biden had more to do with the dramatic Saudi–Emirati unraveling (notably in Sudan) rather than organic evolution.
The persistence of dynamics under Trump, however, suggests that supranational “deep-state” and some state actors are dictating events, foiling efforts by regional and international players to effect stability. (The unfolding of events, arguably by design, has also shaped reactions, ensnaring state interests.) Probably they are also spreading disinformation to spread mistrust, but their level of access to elite levels—with its ability to reverse policy in short order—is remarkable. The fact that the Saudi core of Trump’s “Arab NATO” is now directly clashing with a central U.S.–Israeli priority—the security of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa—is nothing short of astonishing. The biggest winners appear to be Iran and the Houthis, given that this conflict offers them room to revive.
No, what is changing the dynamic is the development of the global LNG market which has already surpassed the importance of the global oil market even even if most people don’t realize it. So MBS understands that worthless oil is the future…now it could be 30 years or 100 years but it is coming. So Saudi Arabia is planning for a future with worthless oil and it must use its oil wealth now to build a foundation that can survive a world with worthless oil.
So Russia would seem to be in a strong position in a world in which natural gas is the most important commodity…except LNG is the form that is important and Putin invested in pipelines instead of LNG export infrastructure. So every economic zone except EU will max out domestic production and then LNG will be for emergency. So China getting lucky with fracking and Argentina somehow doing something right and Nigeria having huge reserves means once everything matures then the world will have a solid 30 year window with cheap natural gas which means that is the window to perfect renewables and max our efficiency. The future is very clear and MBS knows it and Putin knows it and Xi knows it and Biden knows it.
Trump doesn’t know it but the fact Rubio knows it is all that matters presently for America and so far Rubio is winning the internal battles over Vance who thinks coal is the most important commodity!?!
In fact, “deep-state” and other forces seem to have adroitly converted Trump’s “Arab NATO” into a “Muslim Brotherhood (MB) NATO”, cemented by the Saudi–MB/Iran détente. The synchronicity of this alliance with other geopolitical developments, especially the overlap between some of its members and TRIPP, does not seem accidental either. I think this plays into a broader scheme to revitalize Brzezinski’s Islamist “Green Arc” for use vs. Russian and Chinese energy corridors from the MENA to South-Central Asia (the subordination of India and Afghanistan to Turkey/Pakistan/Qatar fits nicely), likely presaging a major escalation on other fronts such as the Arctic as well.
A breakdown shows a kaleidoscopic pattern emerging:
*Burgeoning Pakistan–Ukraine–MB (Turkey/Qatar) defense and energy ties;
*U.S. attempts to use Pakistan as wedge vs. China vis-à-vis India/Afghanistan;
*Pakistani/Islamist expansionism in Bangladesh (‘24 coup) and Myanmar;
*“Deep-state” divide-and-rule to sever Turkic sphere from Russia (and China);
*Iranian and Turkish/Qatari pressure tactics (likely sanctioned by liberal-globalist EU actors) vs. “uncooperative” multipolar actors such as Russia, India, and China where geopolitical aims clash
In hindsight, I think the Biden-era power play in the South Caucasus, combined with Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan, effectively synergized shared Western/Iranian–“MB NATO” interests, effectively contributing to the deterioration in Russia–Azerbaijan ties; pressuring if not fracturing Russo-Sino economic ties with the KSA and Israel (by disrupting the Abraham Accords and BRI); and offering further inducements for Turkish/Qatari stealth encroachment, such as in Syria. Additionally, Muslim demographic advantages dovetail with the “Green Arc”, a means to counter various states by means of Turkic (and to some extent Iranian) incursion.
With like people uniting why not have European people unite ?? USA, Russia,EU . Europeans have had 2 catastrophic World Wars that killed 10's of millions. Time to form a union of people of European origin. We all look alike.
The answer is so simple: all those folks didn't perceive they were, above all considerations, Greeks and not Athenians or Spartans, Indians and not Hurons or Ottawa, Slavs and not Russian or Poles.
It's the reason why great empires use national-separatism as their favorite tool to divide for better rule.
There is not only one but two nationalism: the nationalism with unite: French, Russian, Spanish, Italian, Indian. And the nationalism which exclude : German, Slavs non Russian, African and Asian ethnics,
A lot of things are possible, but that doesn't mean that they're likely. I thought these arguments against that scenario that were presented by this guy here were persuasive:
"Political comment on Somaliland and Israel
The idea that SomaliLand offered Israel to accept 1.5 million Palestinians doesn't make sense to any side! (It was denied by leaders of Somaliland)
First, 1.5 million people will change the demographics of a tribal society, which no tribe will accept.
Second, the tribe that got recognized by Israel is pro-Israel, why bring 1.5 anti-Israel people to such population?
Third, Israel wants a foot in the Horn of Africa, why bring people who want the end of Israel in the first place?"
Never a boring day in geopolitics. On the plus side, I think Somaliland will prevail. In addition to the essential nature of Ethiopian access to sea, and Israeli need to monitor West Yemen and Iran, there is also the coalition of South-Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda. All 3 African nations are landlocked, Israeli allies and need access to sea - so will support Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Besides, don't Turkey and Egypt support opposite sides in Lybia? Also, Turkey promoting Muslim Brotherhood doesn't make Saudis a bit apprehensive? I think the Saudis are too wide-eye fantasizing about Iranian influence gone away for good.
Makes so much sense for all parties involved, but maybe held up by Iran's influence (and military power) within the region.
Russia and China withholding support in exchange for bigger concessions gained elsewhere, and neighboring counties being paid off makes the blitzkrieging of Iran a near-certainty. At this rate, it will be a miracle if the Iranian regime survives the year.
They will be brought to the negotiating table completely neutered and fully compliant.
The current clash between Saudi and Israeli/Emirati interests hardly portends a renewed campaign vs. Iran. In fact, it complicates Trump’s efforts to forge a unified alliance vs. Iran and its allies, while undermining pacts such as the Abraham Accords. If anything, it might signal that “containment” of Sino-Russo economic interests (including but not limited to the Horn region, the center of the dispute) is taking precedence over a Venezuela-like campaign vs. the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”, likely aided by factionalism and “deep-state” meddling in the affairs of the Trump administration and regional powers like Egypt, i.e., a campaign to persuade Trump and Sisi that Ethiopia, with its Israeli/Emirati ties, is a bigger problem than the Houthis (and their Iranian patrons, obviously).
One could reasonably speculate, in fact, that Iranian agents might have played a role in this setup, given that it stands to benefit more than anyone else from the results. The looming clash over Somaliland and the GERD plays into the hands of its “Axis” partners, as well as other Islamist players such as Turkey and its proxies, e.g., Jolani’s Syria. After all, a wider regional war, intersecting with the Saudi–UAE rivalry in Sudan, would undermine the linchpin of Israeli security architecture in the Red Sea area, while signaling a possible U.S.–Israel rift on a raft of issues from Gaza (Trump virtually imposed a settlement on Bibi) to Yemen and of course Syria. All this gives Iran and Co. a major incentive to exploit the resultant power vacuum, with a renewed Iran–Israel war likely.
there must be some pretty strong vapors of genius floating that make countries who lived all their lives in virtue to sell their souls to the most depraved buyers...
This constellation of major defense agreements cannot have come about overnight; moreover, the fact that it operates at variance with U.S. strategic aims vis-à-vis Israel is significant. Before 2021–3 the UAE–Saudi relationship, with some exceptions, had generally improved, with both sides respecting each other’s spheres of influence in Yemen (the Saudis in the north, the Emiratis along the coast). Relations began to crack as doubts about the Biden administration’s commitment to the coalition there, as well as the incipient U.S.–Iran détente, prompted a renewal of Saudi–Iran ties, including via China and the restoration of Saudi–Qatari relations. So arguably U.S. policy under Biden had more to do with the dramatic Saudi–Emirati unraveling (notably in Sudan) rather than organic evolution.
The persistence of dynamics under Trump, however, suggests that supranational “deep-state” and some state actors are dictating events, foiling efforts by regional and international players to effect stability. (The unfolding of events, arguably by design, has also shaped reactions, ensnaring state interests.) Probably they are also spreading disinformation to spread mistrust, but their level of access to elite levels—with its ability to reverse policy in short order—is remarkable. The fact that the Saudi core of Trump’s “Arab NATO” is now directly clashing with a central U.S.–Israeli priority—the security of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa—is nothing short of astonishing. The biggest winners appear to be Iran and the Houthis, given that this conflict offers them room to revive.
No, what is changing the dynamic is the development of the global LNG market which has already surpassed the importance of the global oil market even even if most people don’t realize it. So MBS understands that worthless oil is the future…now it could be 30 years or 100 years but it is coming. So Saudi Arabia is planning for a future with worthless oil and it must use its oil wealth now to build a foundation that can survive a world with worthless oil.
So Russia would seem to be in a strong position in a world in which natural gas is the most important commodity…except LNG is the form that is important and Putin invested in pipelines instead of LNG export infrastructure. So every economic zone except EU will max out domestic production and then LNG will be for emergency. So China getting lucky with fracking and Argentina somehow doing something right and Nigeria having huge reserves means once everything matures then the world will have a solid 30 year window with cheap natural gas which means that is the window to perfect renewables and max our efficiency. The future is very clear and MBS knows it and Putin knows it and Xi knows it and Biden knows it.
Trump doesn’t know it but the fact Rubio knows it is all that matters presently for America and so far Rubio is winning the internal battles over Vance who thinks coal is the most important commodity!?!
What drivel.
In fact, “deep-state” and other forces seem to have adroitly converted Trump’s “Arab NATO” into a “Muslim Brotherhood (MB) NATO”, cemented by the Saudi–MB/Iran détente. The synchronicity of this alliance with other geopolitical developments, especially the overlap between some of its members and TRIPP, does not seem accidental either. I think this plays into a broader scheme to revitalize Brzezinski’s Islamist “Green Arc” for use vs. Russian and Chinese energy corridors from the MENA to South-Central Asia (the subordination of India and Afghanistan to Turkey/Pakistan/Qatar fits nicely), likely presaging a major escalation on other fronts such as the Arctic as well.
A breakdown shows a kaleidoscopic pattern emerging:
*Burgeoning Pakistan–Ukraine–MB (Turkey/Qatar) defense and energy ties;
*U.S. attempts to use Pakistan as wedge vs. China vis-à-vis India/Afghanistan;
*Pakistani/Islamist expansionism in Bangladesh (‘24 coup) and Myanmar;
*“Deep-state” divide-and-rule to sever Turkic sphere from Russia (and China);
*Iranian and Turkish/Qatari pressure tactics (likely sanctioned by liberal-globalist EU actors) vs. “uncooperative” multipolar actors such as Russia, India, and China where geopolitical aims clash
In hindsight, I think the Biden-era power play in the South Caucasus, combined with Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan, effectively synergized shared Western/Iranian–“MB NATO” interests, effectively contributing to the deterioration in Russia–Azerbaijan ties; pressuring if not fracturing Russo-Sino economic ties with the KSA and Israel (by disrupting the Abraham Accords and BRI); and offering further inducements for Turkish/Qatari stealth encroachment, such as in Syria. Additionally, Muslim demographic advantages dovetail with the “Green Arc”, a means to counter various states by means of Turkic (and to some extent Iranian) incursion.
How much of the Saudi success in South Yemen can be attributed to American ISR, AWACS, and AI?
To the extent that this may be the case, it is doubtful that the Americans would extend the same assistance to a campaign against Somaliland.
Further, all of these countries are entirely dependent on the United States. They can do nothing that the Americans do not permit.
With like people uniting why not have European people unite ?? USA, Russia,EU . Europeans have had 2 catastrophic World Wars that killed 10's of millions. Time to form a union of people of European origin. We all look alike.
Why ancient Greeks didn't unite?
Why Gauls didn't unite?
Why american natives didn't unite?
Why Slavs don't unite?
The answer is so simple: all those folks didn't perceive they were, above all considerations, Greeks and not Athenians or Spartans, Indians and not Hurons or Ottawa, Slavs and not Russian or Poles.
It's the reason why great empires use national-separatism as their favorite tool to divide for better rule.
This is why they will need to:
" 14–17% of the world’s population is of predominantly European descent or ancestry."
There is not only one but two nationalism: the nationalism with unite: French, Russian, Spanish, Italian, Indian. And the nationalism which exclude : German, Slavs non Russian, African and Asian ethnics,
Is there a possibility of the IDF forcibly moving Gazan and West Bank Palestinians to Somaliland?
A lot of things are possible, but that doesn't mean that they're likely. I thought these arguments against that scenario that were presented by this guy here were persuasive:
"Political comment on Somaliland and Israel
The idea that SomaliLand offered Israel to accept 1.5 million Palestinians doesn't make sense to any side! (It was denied by leaders of Somaliland)
First, 1.5 million people will change the demographics of a tribal society, which no tribe will accept.
Second, the tribe that got recognized by Israel is pro-Israel, why bring 1.5 anti-Israel people to such population?
Third, Israel wants a foot in the Horn of Africa, why bring people who want the end of Israel in the first place?"
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2005624378327765178
Never a boring day in geopolitics. On the plus side, I think Somaliland will prevail. In addition to the essential nature of Ethiopian access to sea, and Israeli need to monitor West Yemen and Iran, there is also the coalition of South-Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda. All 3 African nations are landlocked, Israeli allies and need access to sea - so will support Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Besides, don't Turkey and Egypt support opposite sides in Lybia? Also, Turkey promoting Muslim Brotherhood doesn't make Saudis a bit apprehensive? I think the Saudis are too wide-eye fantasizing about Iranian influence gone away for good.
Makes so much sense for all parties involved, but maybe held up by Iran's influence (and military power) within the region.
Russia and China withholding support in exchange for bigger concessions gained elsewhere, and neighboring counties being paid off makes the blitzkrieging of Iran a near-certainty. At this rate, it will be a miracle if the Iranian regime survives the year.
They will be brought to the negotiating table completely neutered and fully compliant.
The current clash between Saudi and Israeli/Emirati interests hardly portends a renewed campaign vs. Iran. In fact, it complicates Trump’s efforts to forge a unified alliance vs. Iran and its allies, while undermining pacts such as the Abraham Accords. If anything, it might signal that “containment” of Sino-Russo economic interests (including but not limited to the Horn region, the center of the dispute) is taking precedence over a Venezuela-like campaign vs. the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”, likely aided by factionalism and “deep-state” meddling in the affairs of the Trump administration and regional powers like Egypt, i.e., a campaign to persuade Trump and Sisi that Ethiopia, with its Israeli/Emirati ties, is a bigger problem than the Houthis (and their Iranian patrons, obviously).
One could reasonably speculate, in fact, that Iranian agents might have played a role in this setup, given that it stands to benefit more than anyone else from the results. The looming clash over Somaliland and the GERD plays into the hands of its “Axis” partners, as well as other Islamist players such as Turkey and its proxies, e.g., Jolani’s Syria. After all, a wider regional war, intersecting with the Saudi–UAE rivalry in Sudan, would undermine the linchpin of Israeli security architecture in the Red Sea area, while signaling a possible U.S.–Israel rift on a raft of issues from Gaza (Trump virtually imposed a settlement on Bibi) to Yemen and of course Syria. All this gives Iran and Co. a major incentive to exploit the resultant power vacuum, with a renewed Iran–Israel war likely.
In this scenario puntland and somaliland are both in danger, could this threat propel them to work together?
there must be some pretty strong vapors of genius floating that make countries who lived all their lives in virtue to sell their souls to the most depraved buyers...