The Outcome Of Armenia’s Latest Round Of Unrest Will Be Pivotal For The Region’s Future

If Armenia becomes a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate like Pashinyan’s opponents fear that he agreed to, then Turkiye could become a force to be reckoned with in the Eurasian Heartland, but that scenario could be derailed if it becomes Russian-friendly once again and averts an Azeri(-Turkish?) invasion.

Armenia is experiencing yet another round of unrest, the background of which RT explained here, which can be summarized as growing opposition against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from civil society and the church over his foreign policy, increasingly authoritarian tendencies, and economic mismanagement. The arrest of Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan and two archbishops over their alleged involvement in a coup plot catalyzed the latest protests but their roots stem from the Karabakh Conflict.

Azerbaijan’s victory led to the dissolution of the unrecognized separatist entity known as “Artsakh”, which occupied universally recognized Azerbaijani territory for several decades that Armenians nonetheless considered ancestral to them. That outcome was therefore very painful for many, who initially blamed Russia per Pashinyan’s insinuation but eventually realized that his disastrous foreign policy was to blame, after which their protests against him were forcefully put down.

His cession of disputed mountainous border villages to Azerbaijan then made many wonder whether he might also cede southern Syunik Province. The November 2020 ceasefire called for the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor, which Baku calls the “Zangezur Corridor”, across that province but Pashinyan thus far refused. His warming ties with Azerbaijan and historic visit to Turkiye in late June sparked speculation that he might soon comply, however, and even cede Syunik in the interests of “peace”.

The earlier mentioned arrests right around the time of his visit prompted RT chief Margarita Simonyan to tweet the following: “Since returning from Turkey, Mr Pashinyan - or is it Effendi Pashinyan now - has unleashed a campaign of smears, searches and threats against the Armenian Apostolic Church and its head Catholicos Karekin II. To Armenians living in their homeland: what are you waiting for? For your sons to be beheaded, and your daughters to be enslaved into harems - again?”

Her assessment of what’s at stake reflects what many of her co-ethnics are also worried about but shouldn’t be spun as evidence of “Russian meddling” since the unrest is purely organic and entirely local. Even so, if the protests succeed in toppling Pashinyan, then Armenia might flip from becoming a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate (prior to which he envisaged it becoming a joint American-French one) to a Russian-friendly ally once again, which could have profound reverberations for the region.

So long as his successors don’t revive revanchist fantasies that could be exploited to justify a “special operation” by Azerbaijan (with Turkiye’s possible participation), and such a conflict is averted regardless of the pretext, then the restoration of Russian influence in Armenia could stymie Turkiye’s regional plans. Given that Georgia is nowadays Russian-friendly while Iran is very suspicious of Azerbaijan, Turkiye’s most reliable route to Azerbaijan and the Central Asian Republics beyond is through Armenia.

None of them would likely cut off Turkish-Central Asian trade, but all three could ensure that their corridors aren’t exploited to expand Turkish military influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. If Armenia becomes a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate like Pashinyan’s opponents fear that he agreed to, then Turkiye could become a force to be reckoned with in the Eurasian Heartland, but that scenario could be derailed if it becomes Russian-friendly once again and averts an Azeri(-Turkish?) invasion.