The Russian-Afghan Military-Technical Deal Is A Step Towards Closer Anti-Terrorist Cooperation

Even in the unlikely scenario that their cooperation one day includes the air defense systems that the Afghan Defense Minister said that he’s seeking for deterring Pakistan, Russia already arms Pakistan’s Indian nemesis to the teeth, yet Pakistan didn’t let that stand in the way of improving ties with Russia.

Russia and Afghanistan clinched a military-technical deal on the sidelines of late May’s International Security Forum in Moscow. Afghan Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob revealed that it concerns the repair of Russian-made equipment, of which his country has plenty, and implied that it made Pakistan uneasy. In his words, “In the near future, we will try to ensure that Pakistan no longer dares to attack [Afghan territory].” This was an allusion to the undeclared war between them earlier this year.

Whether he truly believes that this military-technical deal will deter Pakistan or is just grandstanding as is typical for officials from that part of the world to do, Russia’s motivations are solely in the realm of anti-terrorist cooperation. It actually enjoys better relations with Pakistan nowadays than at any time in the past, but at the same time, “Russia Hinted At Its Latent Threat Perception Of Pakistan” twice in May. This relates to Pakistan being the only realistic route through which foreign terrorists enter Afghanistan.

Be that as it may, Russia still envisages comprehensively expanding ties with Pakistan, ergo Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s rescheduled visit sometime later this summer after his initially planned one earlier in the spring was postponed at the last minute due to the outbreak of the Third Gulf War. From its perspective, anti-terrorist cooperation with Afghanistan can restore stability and thus enable it to function as the main transit state for scaling trade with Pakistan, which is a promising emerging market.

This goal contextualizes why Russia became the first country in the world to formally recognize the Taliban’s restored rule over Afghanistan last summer and why the Pakistani Ambassador to Russia is so optimistic about the future course of bilateral relations. It also explains why Alexander Venediktov, the Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, reaffirmed Russia’s willingness to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan in talks with his Pakistani counterpart on the sidelines of late May’s forum.

Russia is the only country other than China which enjoys excellent ties with both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and it can be argued that Russia’s ties with Afghanistan are even stronger than China’s due to their new military-technical deal and Moscow formally recognizing the Taliban’s restored rule. Pakistan might indeed feel uneasy about the aforesaid deal exactly as Yaqoob implied, but it shouldn’t worry about Russia using Afghanistan against it since their security partnership is only aimed against ISIS-K.

Even in the unlikely scenario that their cooperation one day includes the air defense systems that Yaqoob said that Afghanistan seeks for deterring Pakistan, Russia already arms Pakistan’s Indian nemesis to the teeth, yet Pakistan didn’t let that stand in the way of improving ties with Russia. It therefore follows that bilateral relations wouldn’t be harmed by Russia hypothetically doing the same with Afghanistan vis-à-vis Pakistan, though it remains purely speculative and probably wouldn’t happen for a while in any case.

To wrap it up, Russia’s motive for repairing Afghanistan’s Russian-made equipment is to enhance the Taliban’s anti-terrorist capabilities, not to deter or threaten Pakistan. Russian-Pakistani relations are expected to continue improving and will reach a new milestone after Sharif’s visit later this summer. The best-case scenario is that Russia mediates an end to Afghan-Pakistani tensions, which then unlocks more optimal overland trade with Pakistan than through Iran, but that’s admittedly wishful thinking.