Representatives from the Presidential Administration, Ministry of Defense, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs have recently addressed these threats, which risk spiraling into a three-front proxy war against Russia in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia if they aren’t preemptively thwarted.
Wherever US/NATO shows up destruction and war follows, instantly. Like hidden hands are constantly manipulating to bring down normal life in nations that possess too much oil or refuse to toe the US/NATO party line. The underlying plan is becoming more and more obvious: Depopulation on a planetary scale. US/NATO is mindlessly forcing the wars toward a nuclear confrontation but I am not sure they will be happy when they get there. I would love to hear what Xi says to Trump tomorrow about this in Beijing.
Friendship and hospitality are only for people who have no designs on you. For now, I do think Russia can count Iran, China, and NK as friendly as they depend on Russia for one reason or another. As for the collective West? The answer is obvious.
They're very reluctant to do anything that significantly harms Russia since they fear that Russia would then conclude that its Sino-Indo balancing act has failed and then pivot to China.
A Russian pivot to China would harm India even more significantly than India could ever harm Russia since India fears that China would coerce its junior Russian partner into cutting off arms and spares to India.
India is still disproportionately dependent on Soviet and Russian equipment despite its recent indigenization program and import diversification so China and Pakistan would be able to militarily blackmail India.
India's only realistic option would be to pivot towards the US, thus becoming its junior partner like Russia would have already become China's by then, with the consequence being the cession of its hard-earned strategic autonomy.
If India ever ends its reliance on Soviet and Russian equipment, which many expect might still take at least two decades at minimum and only if everything perfectly proceeds according to plan, then maybe it would hypothetically harm Russia.
Till then, reducing energy imports under US pressure (both tariffs and the spectre of the US intensifying its rapprochement with Pakistan) is the absolute worst that India will likely do, which doesn't deal any significant harm to Russia.
It's mutual Russian-Indian balancing act vis-a-vis China and the US respectively that fascinated me so much that I wrote my PhD dissertation on the role that Pakistan can play in the Russian half of this act:
To oversimplify, gradual improvements in Russian-Pakistani ties can serve to keep Indian-US ones in check while maintaining trust with China (Pakistan's "iron brother") as Russia also strengthens ties with India.
Russia must avoid spooking India into pivoting to the US, thus forcing Russia to pivot to China at the cost of becoming its junior partner, as well as avoid spooking China into cutting a deal with the US at Russia's possible expense.
This is a constant imperative that will define Russian grand strategy indefinitely unless Russia or India first pivots to China or the US and thus upsets the balance by inevitably ushering into protracted bi-multipolarity.
Russia and India's shared goal is to midwife tri-multipolarity with a view towards making complex multipolarity inevitable, as in no serious chance of returning to any variant of bipolarity, but it's much easier said than done.
All these Alt-Media jesters as you rightly describe them either lack the analytical ability to understand this balancing act, let alone acknowledge it (and usually for reasons of ideology or competence), or are receiving perks or even getting paid by someone for ignoring or denying it.
Also, in the event that Russia pivots to China with all that could entail, my vision -- which was upended by Pakistan's post-modern coup in April 2022 radically restoring hitherto rapidly declining US influence there -- Pakistan could serve as an imperfect counterbalance to China for averting the more dire consequences of becoming China's junior partner.
The scenario that I spent the preceding few years working on, both in terms of my analysis and "in real life" by traveling to Pakistan five times to -- among other things -- help set the basis for this eventuality, was trans-Afghan connectivity turbocharging Russian-Pakistani trade and creating the possibility of expanding this corridor to India if the status quo in Kashmir is formalized as part of a Russian-mediated peace deal that could also lead to overland Russian pipelines reaching India via Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia.
See Andrew's reply. I think Russia and India both have sufficient reasons to maintain good relationship with each other even if the relationship is not perfect.
From a non-Russian non-Indian perspective, I think India can make the best contribution to the world by becoming the leader of the nonaligned countries such that the world has at least three power groups. A stool needs at least three legs. And a world aligned into two camps would have to go to war, sooner or later.
and which traitor would you suggest to replace him, a left hand occult like those that dominate serbia? 2 of 3 decision centers occupied by satanists is too much already, how did it work for serbia letting the lunatics lead? you want to share your expertise now? some people think: it should happen to anyone because it happened to me; others - it should happen to no one because it happened to me.
Russia remains Kazakhstan's closest military and economic partner by far, but yes, he does play a double-game as I recently explained here regarding his suspicious obsequiousness towards Trump:
kazahs were grandomaniacs since the soviet times. not as lowly as the azeri, but with the same determination. and this feeling was only encouraged in the last decades.
It will not last long if it let west surround it like that. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, India, and tomorrow, Kazakhstan , Kirghizistan, Tadjikistan.
Yes, and the West, for its part, is capable of holding its place in the "wall of shields", even if it costs them. That's even how it has always ended up defeating its adversaries. Russia has historically demonstrated its ability to also hold its place in the wall of shields. In that respect, it is very Western. Apparently, other regions of the world only know 'every man for himself' and 'save yourself if you can, each for himself and God for all.'"
The military history of a civilization is very representative of its history as a whole. The military history of the West — from Pericles to the present day, passing through Roman maniples, the Saxon shield wall, the Viking shield wall, the Swiss pike square, the Dutch firing line, and modern warfare — shows that the entire power of our civilization lies in our unique perception of discipline, which is not, as in other cultures, mere submission or a longing for martyrdom.
jinping's xiongnu blood and romanian handler. he didnt just watch passively this encirclement, he produced it by challenging all countries in the region, starting with japan even in the days of its imposition. anybody was china's friend before, the world was better and also the west was much more accepted than today.
I think China does see that problem, but China has to first solve the problem of economic development. When the job was half done, Xi took over and believed that the job was already done. Instead of trying to befriend everybody, Xi started the traditional imperial strategy of "befriending the far away and attacking the neighbors." In the process, Xi infuriated many countries that would prefer to remain on good terms with China. Before Xi, I think you can give China's foreign policies a passing grade. In many aspects, Xi and Trump are similar in personality but have opposite agendas.
Anti-China has been used by Mao as a distraction from domestic economic problems in then China. Xi tried to do the same. Xi is also unhappy that Western industries were leaving China for India, especially for the high-tech industry. However, I don't think Indian students in the US are actively working on industrial and military espionage against the US. At least not to the extent that the US wants to highlight such activities. The opposite can be said about China.
Chinese Communists have always been against the US since during WW2. That orientation had been further strengthened by the ensuing Chinese Civil War, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. If the US has waken up to the "China threat" in the last twenty years, then Chinese Communists have never forgotten that since the 1940s. I have seen declassified memoirs about ChiCom sending agents to the US before the end of WW2 (likely after the OSS established contacts with CCP at Yan'an.)
Mao attended "Yale Divinity School" in China before OSS' (Oh So Social) Brown Shoe Boys "made contact with CCP at Yan'an". Yale's Skull & Bones satanists ran the "Divinity School" in China as well as the OSS. Hidden hand behind history.
China is just not very good in foreign policy. It pursues a totally self-destructive anti-India strategy, and is also trying to get Russian minerals for as cheap as it gets. Back in early 2010s it had friendly relations with Israel, but that is totally gone by now. What with channelling Chinese money to pro-Hamas media and political organizations in the US.
Andrew, amazing! The Triad only know figuring it out! I find that very hard to believe when many of us have seen this coming for several years now. I've personally been following the "creep" in the Caucusus, and Eurasia for a long time and I'm not alone.
The US has made it opening and publicly clear that it intends to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia to steal its vast resources.
And the BIG question is, what will Russia do about it there and in Ukraine? Putin says the end is close in Ukraine. I don't see it. How many more red lines must be crossed before Russia puts down the hammer?
It seems more evident by the day that the woke West deepstate will continue their covert attacks on and encirclement of Russia. Whatever happens in Ukraine and whatever their populations want.
Does Russia have any realistic option other than delivering a crushing blow on a major Nato target? It doesn't need to be all-out nuclear war, and Nato's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine would give enough justification.
"Does Russia have any realistic option other than delivering a crushing blow on a major Nato target?"
No, thanks to Russian dithering and indecision.
The problem is that the Russian leadership really do not want to fight the West. They want to be allowed to join it. The Russian populace just want to be consumers.
Completely agree, Patrick. The US will not get involved in protecting any country in the EU should Russia take out Brussels, or Berlin, London, or Paris. Combined, the EU is toothless.
and if france succeeds in changing putin just because he doesn't belong to the postmodernist-parnassianist occults they control, this might very well happen; they were already surpassed by (a case i know best) "subordinated" romania in impact in eastern europe, ON FRENCH NETWORKS AND INFLUENCE, by dacia against renault ON FRENCH INVESTMENT, PATENTS AND EXPERTISE and by a romanian hobby traders against carrefour (so leroy merlin will be next) ON INFRASTRUCTURE, TRADE RELATIONS AND PORTFOLIO BUILT FROM ZERO, and russia (well influenced by the same romania) is even bigger. france priorities seems to be two in this period: subverting the europeans, including france herself, and sharing the spoils with the byzantines, and getting a place in the first row in every format meant to destroy it. i never dared to ask, is macron the same guy from quake wars 2?
Kazakhstan is surrounded on three sides by China and Russia, and the two of them are the dominant trading partners. It is diversifying to increase its sovereignty, which includes closer ties with China. That is very different to becoming a proxy warrior against Russia. It is also dependent upon Russia for the ability to export most of the oil it sends to Europe..
Same with Azerbaijan that is rapidly growing its trade ties with China, with Russia on its northern border and Iran on its southern border, together with a now neutral Georgia. Armenia isn't even on Russia's border, with Georgia between it and Russia; and Iran on its southern border (with which trade is rapidly growing). They will also be very cognizant of what a much weaker Russian army did to Georgia in 2008. More independent yes, proxy warriors, no.
The West is desperate and trying everything possible to undermine Russia, but these nations are not a Ukraine, or a Georgia of 2008. Georgia's escape from European vassalage was a very major hit to these plans.
I am looking at the map and I see a big blue patch there. And lo and behold, we have the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed on 12 August 2018 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, by the five littoral states: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, convention that has military exclusions:
The Military Exclusion Provisions
The Convention's military provisions are among its most clearly worded clauses. It expressly prohibits the presence of armed forces not belonging to any of the five coastal states, and further regulates the navigation of warships, submarines, and other underwater vessels. Lexology
The practical implications are sweeping: the outright exclusion of military vessels from third states means that, for instance, NATO states are not able to deploy ships or troops in the Caspian Sea.
Going further, the convention also prevents non-Caspian countries from leasing ports in order to establish foreign military bases in the region. Warsaw Institute
The Kremlin's own summary of the Convention lists the key military principles, including compliance with the prohibition of armed forces not belonging to the parties, and non-provision by any party of its territory to other states to commit aggression or undertake other military actions against any other party.
Strategic Motivation
The littoral states define the Caspian as a "peace" sea through these provisions. This part was particularly important for Russia and Iran, whose governments remained concerned about the possible military participation of Western countries in the region.
The inclusion of this clause excluding external military forces has effectively contributed to strengthening Russia's leading naval position on the Caspian, reinforcing its broader military projection capacity.
Ratification Status (an important caveat)
The Convention was signed by the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, replacing the Soviet-Iranian treaties of 1921 and 1940. However, its formal entry into force has been complicated. As of late 2024, four states have ratified it, but Iran has not, delaying full entry into force, though provisions have been applied provisionally in practice.
Iran's holdout is primarily over a separate issue — the delimitation of straight baselines along its coast — rather than the military provisions themselves, which Iran strongly supported. Iran considers itself the most disadvantaged party in terms of seabed delimitation, and it is only when the straight baseline is established to Iran's satisfaction that it is likely to complete ratification.
More recently, a Caspian Sea Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation Agreement was signed on October 8, 2025 by Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, reaffirming the 2018 Convention's demilitarization principles while adding joint commitments against terrorism, smuggling, and illegal fishing.
In summary, the prohibition on outside military forces is real, explicitly negotiated, and represents one of the Convention's least controversial provisions — largely because both Russia and Iran, the two powers most concerned about Western (especially US/NATO) military encroachment, were strongly aligned on this point.
As such, I am wondering how will the NATO leap over the Caspian Sea. How will the Azer and Kazakh navies will be beefed up, etc. While the Azeri might have direct support from Turkyie, the Kazakhs are caught between Russia and China, big time. Are we to totally ignore these facts and that geography is destiny? Iran holds the world at ransom with the Strait of Hormuz, for instance....
Wherever US/NATO shows up destruction and war follows, instantly. Like hidden hands are constantly manipulating to bring down normal life in nations that possess too much oil or refuse to toe the US/NATO party line. The underlying plan is becoming more and more obvious: Depopulation on a planetary scale. US/NATO is mindlessly forcing the wars toward a nuclear confrontation but I am not sure they will be happy when they get there. I would love to hear what Xi says to Trump tomorrow about this in Beijing.
"Russia has only two allies: the army and the navy". Seems Putin's sentimental policies are not working. Is it not he time for a change?
Long overdue in my personal opinion.
Friendship and hospitality are only for people who have no designs on you. For now, I do think Russia can count Iran, China, and NK as friendly as they depend on Russia for one reason or another. As for the collective West? The answer is obvious.
China would be glad to sell Russia out.
You underestimate the Chinese
I'd love to be wrong, but keep in mind Chinese pressure on Iran to make any deal to keep the Americans happy.
Short-termism at its worst.
yes, but not yet.
And India?
They're very reluctant to do anything that significantly harms Russia since they fear that Russia would then conclude that its Sino-Indo balancing act has failed and then pivot to China.
A Russian pivot to China would harm India even more significantly than India could ever harm Russia since India fears that China would coerce its junior Russian partner into cutting off arms and spares to India.
India is still disproportionately dependent on Soviet and Russian equipment despite its recent indigenization program and import diversification so China and Pakistan would be able to militarily blackmail India.
India's only realistic option would be to pivot towards the US, thus becoming its junior partner like Russia would have already become China's by then, with the consequence being the cession of its hard-earned strategic autonomy.
If India ever ends its reliance on Soviet and Russian equipment, which many expect might still take at least two decades at minimum and only if everything perfectly proceeds according to plan, then maybe it would hypothetically harm Russia.
Till then, reducing energy imports under US pressure (both tariffs and the spectre of the US intensifying its rapprochement with Pakistan) is the absolute worst that India will likely do, which doesn't deal any significant harm to Russia.
It's mutual Russian-Indian balancing act vis-a-vis China and the US respectively that fascinated me so much that I wrote my PhD dissertation on the role that Pakistan can play in the Russian half of this act:
https://mgimo.ru/upload/diss/2022/Korybko_diss.pdf
To oversimplify, gradual improvements in Russian-Pakistani ties can serve to keep Indian-US ones in check while maintaining trust with China (Pakistan's "iron brother") as Russia also strengthens ties with India.
Russia must avoid spooking India into pivoting to the US, thus forcing Russia to pivot to China at the cost of becoming its junior partner, as well as avoid spooking China into cutting a deal with the US at Russia's possible expense.
This is a constant imperative that will define Russian grand strategy indefinitely unless Russia or India first pivots to China or the US and thus upsets the balance by inevitably ushering into protracted bi-multipolarity.
Russia and India's shared goal is to midwife tri-multipolarity with a view towards making complex multipolarity inevitable, as in no serious chance of returning to any variant of bipolarity, but it's much easier said than done.
All these Alt-Media jesters as you rightly describe them either lack the analytical ability to understand this balancing act, let alone acknowledge it (and usually for reasons of ideology or competence), or are receiving perks or even getting paid by someone for ignoring or denying it.
Also, in the event that Russia pivots to China with all that could entail, my vision -- which was upended by Pakistan's post-modern coup in April 2022 radically restoring hitherto rapidly declining US influence there -- Pakistan could serve as an imperfect counterbalance to China for averting the more dire consequences of becoming China's junior partner.
The scenario that I spent the preceding few years working on, both in terms of my analysis and "in real life" by traveling to Pakistan five times to -- among other things -- help set the basis for this eventuality, was trans-Afghan connectivity turbocharging Russian-Pakistani trade and creating the possibility of expanding this corridor to India if the status quo in Kashmir is formalized as part of a Russian-mediated peace deal that could also lead to overland Russian pipelines reaching India via Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia.
Honestly, I suspect that wishful thinking plays a significant role.
Humans love neat stories with heroes to root for and villains to boo.
Bingo!
See Andrew's reply. I think Russia and India both have sufficient reasons to maintain good relationship with each other even if the relationship is not perfect.
From a non-Russian non-Indian perspective, I think India can make the best contribution to the world by becoming the leader of the nonaligned countries such that the world has at least three power groups. A stool needs at least three legs. And a world aligned into two camps would have to go to war, sooner or later.
In a minute.
and which traitor would you suggest to replace him, a left hand occult like those that dominate serbia? 2 of 3 decision centers occupied by satanists is too much already, how did it work for serbia letting the lunatics lead? you want to share your expertise now? some people think: it should happen to anyone because it happened to me; others - it should happen to no one because it happened to me.
selling one self to highest bid has a name what was it ?
Prostitution
👍 same as corruption …number one tool of non-evolution and destruction…
so many krompromats among us …
how many lies make one’s truth ?
asking far more than just jewish lie …
Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev was in Moscow for the Victory Day 3 days ago. Does he play a double game?
Russia remains Kazakhstan's closest military and economic partner by far, but yes, he does play a double-game as I recently explained here regarding his suspicious obsequiousness towards Trump:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/kazakhstans-president-is-suspiciously
It also voluntarily complies with some Western sanctions against Russia and openly declares so too so it's not a secret:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/kazakhstans-pro-eu-pivot-poses-a
Yes.
kazahs were grandomaniacs since the soviet times. not as lowly as the azeri, but with the same determination. and this feeling was only encouraged in the last decades.
What is incomprehensible for me is China's total inaction regarding the real encirclement of its borders by the West.
If somebody has an answer...
China wants to avoid any confrontation so it can continue to sell things and make money.
It will not last long if it let west surround it like that. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, India, and tomorrow, Kazakhstan , Kirghizistan, Tadjikistan.
Yup. Short termism and wishful thinking.
In contrast with China, the West cares only for power, domination and control.
Yes, and the West, for its part, is capable of holding its place in the "wall of shields", even if it costs them. That's even how it has always ended up defeating its adversaries. Russia has historically demonstrated its ability to also hold its place in the wall of shields. In that respect, it is very Western. Apparently, other regions of the world only know 'every man for himself' and 'save yourself if you can, each for himself and God for all.'"
The story of the medieval Russian prince, who was offered the choice of weapons or treasure, and who chose weapons, comes prominently to mind.
The military history of a civilization is very representative of its history as a whole. The military history of the West — from Pericles to the present day, passing through Roman maniples, the Saxon shield wall, the Viking shield wall, the Swiss pike square, the Dutch firing line, and modern warfare — shows that the entire power of our civilization lies in our unique perception of discipline, which is not, as in other cultures, mere submission or a longing for martyrdom.
jinping's xiongnu blood and romanian handler. he didnt just watch passively this encirclement, he produced it by challenging all countries in the region, starting with japan even in the days of its imposition. anybody was china's friend before, the world was better and also the west was much more accepted than today.
I think China does see that problem, but China has to first solve the problem of economic development. When the job was half done, Xi took over and believed that the job was already done. Instead of trying to befriend everybody, Xi started the traditional imperial strategy of "befriending the far away and attacking the neighbors." In the process, Xi infuriated many countries that would prefer to remain on good terms with China. Before Xi, I think you can give China's foreign policies a passing grade. In many aspects, Xi and Trump are similar in personality but have opposite agendas.
Anti-China has been used by Mao as a distraction from domestic economic problems in then China. Xi tried to do the same. Xi is also unhappy that Western industries were leaving China for India, especially for the high-tech industry. However, I don't think Indian students in the US are actively working on industrial and military espionage against the US. At least not to the extent that the US wants to highlight such activities. The opposite can be said about China.
Chinese Communists have always been against the US since during WW2. That orientation had been further strengthened by the ensuing Chinese Civil War, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. If the US has waken up to the "China threat" in the last twenty years, then Chinese Communists have never forgotten that since the 1940s. I have seen declassified memoirs about ChiCom sending agents to the US before the end of WW2 (likely after the OSS established contacts with CCP at Yan'an.)
Mao attended "Yale Divinity School" in China before OSS' (Oh So Social) Brown Shoe Boys "made contact with CCP at Yan'an". Yale's Skull & Bones satanists ran the "Divinity School" in China as well as the OSS. Hidden hand behind history.
I did not know that. Thank You.
China is just not very good in foreign policy. It pursues a totally self-destructive anti-India strategy, and is also trying to get Russian minerals for as cheap as it gets. Back in early 2010s it had friendly relations with Israel, but that is totally gone by now. What with channelling Chinese money to pro-Hamas media and political organizations in the US.
Andrew, amazing! The Triad only know figuring it out! I find that very hard to believe when many of us have seen this coming for several years now. I've personally been following the "creep" in the Caucusus, and Eurasia for a long time and I'm not alone.
The US has made it opening and publicly clear that it intends to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia to steal its vast resources.
And the BIG question is, what will Russia do about it there and in Ukraine? Putin says the end is close in Ukraine. I don't see it. How many more red lines must be crossed before Russia puts down the hammer?
The last phrase of the last sentence is the key. Pretending that there was no problem is what led to this.
It seems more evident by the day that the woke West deepstate will continue their covert attacks on and encirclement of Russia. Whatever happens in Ukraine and whatever their populations want.
Does Russia have any realistic option other than delivering a crushing blow on a major Nato target? It doesn't need to be all-out nuclear war, and Nato's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine would give enough justification.
"Does Russia have any realistic option other than delivering a crushing blow on a major Nato target?"
No, thanks to Russian dithering and indecision.
The problem is that the Russian leadership really do not want to fight the West. They want to be allowed to join it. The Russian populace just want to be consumers.
I think you'll be proven very wrong quite soon.
I hope you are correct but we've been hearing that Russia is going to take the gloves off for real this time for four years now and it never happens.
Best explanation for what the empire is really up to... excellent read:
https://globaleconomicindicator.com/the-petroyuan-trap-the-u-s-plan-to-break-chinas-economic-sovereignty/
Completely agree, Patrick. The US will not get involved in protecting any country in the EU should Russia take out Brussels, or Berlin, London, or Paris. Combined, the EU is toothless.
and if france succeeds in changing putin just because he doesn't belong to the postmodernist-parnassianist occults they control, this might very well happen; they were already surpassed by (a case i know best) "subordinated" romania in impact in eastern europe, ON FRENCH NETWORKS AND INFLUENCE, by dacia against renault ON FRENCH INVESTMENT, PATENTS AND EXPERTISE and by a romanian hobby traders against carrefour (so leroy merlin will be next) ON INFRASTRUCTURE, TRADE RELATIONS AND PORTFOLIO BUILT FROM ZERO, and russia (well influenced by the same romania) is even bigger. france priorities seems to be two in this period: subverting the europeans, including france herself, and sharing the spoils with the byzantines, and getting a place in the first row in every format meant to destroy it. i never dared to ask, is macron the same guy from quake wars 2?
How? By crushing Ukraine now!
Kazakhstan is surrounded on three sides by China and Russia, and the two of them are the dominant trading partners. It is diversifying to increase its sovereignty, which includes closer ties with China. That is very different to becoming a proxy warrior against Russia. It is also dependent upon Russia for the ability to export most of the oil it sends to Europe..
Same with Azerbaijan that is rapidly growing its trade ties with China, with Russia on its northern border and Iran on its southern border, together with a now neutral Georgia. Armenia isn't even on Russia's border, with Georgia between it and Russia; and Iran on its southern border (with which trade is rapidly growing). They will also be very cognizant of what a much weaker Russian army did to Georgia in 2008. More independent yes, proxy warriors, no.
The West is desperate and trying everything possible to undermine Russia, but these nations are not a Ukraine, or a Georgia of 2008. Georgia's escape from European vassalage was a very major hit to these plans.
I am looking at the map and I see a big blue patch there. And lo and behold, we have the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed on 12 August 2018 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, by the five littoral states: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, convention that has military exclusions:
The Military Exclusion Provisions
The Convention's military provisions are among its most clearly worded clauses. It expressly prohibits the presence of armed forces not belonging to any of the five coastal states, and further regulates the navigation of warships, submarines, and other underwater vessels. Lexology
The practical implications are sweeping: the outright exclusion of military vessels from third states means that, for instance, NATO states are not able to deploy ships or troops in the Caspian Sea.
Going further, the convention also prevents non-Caspian countries from leasing ports in order to establish foreign military bases in the region. Warsaw Institute
The Kremlin's own summary of the Convention lists the key military principles, including compliance with the prohibition of armed forces not belonging to the parties, and non-provision by any party of its territory to other states to commit aggression or undertake other military actions against any other party.
Strategic Motivation
The littoral states define the Caspian as a "peace" sea through these provisions. This part was particularly important for Russia and Iran, whose governments remained concerned about the possible military participation of Western countries in the region.
The inclusion of this clause excluding external military forces has effectively contributed to strengthening Russia's leading naval position on the Caspian, reinforcing its broader military projection capacity.
Ratification Status (an important caveat)
The Convention was signed by the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, replacing the Soviet-Iranian treaties of 1921 and 1940. However, its formal entry into force has been complicated. As of late 2024, four states have ratified it, but Iran has not, delaying full entry into force, though provisions have been applied provisionally in practice.
Iran's holdout is primarily over a separate issue — the delimitation of straight baselines along its coast — rather than the military provisions themselves, which Iran strongly supported. Iran considers itself the most disadvantaged party in terms of seabed delimitation, and it is only when the straight baseline is established to Iran's satisfaction that it is likely to complete ratification.
More recently, a Caspian Sea Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation Agreement was signed on October 8, 2025 by Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, reaffirming the 2018 Convention's demilitarization principles while adding joint commitments against terrorism, smuggling, and illegal fishing.
In summary, the prohibition on outside military forces is real, explicitly negotiated, and represents one of the Convention's least controversial provisions — largely because both Russia and Iran, the two powers most concerned about Western (especially US/NATO) military encroachment, were strongly aligned on this point.
As such, I am wondering how will the NATO leap over the Caspian Sea. How will the Azer and Kazakh navies will be beefed up, etc. While the Azeri might have direct support from Turkyie, the Kazakhs are caught between Russia and China, big time. Are we to totally ignore these facts and that geography is destiny? Iran holds the world at ransom with the Strait of Hormuz, for instance....
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
What you’re doing is called soliciting. Try another street corner and leave us alone.