The most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would be that the US seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions, Russia doesn’t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off.
The idea that Trump wants to end this and restart normal relations with Russia is absurd. He's obvsly acting and now he's humiliating everyone, including Americans, in his dumb act to get a deal for the neocons.
Russia, China, and Iran should stand up to the bully jointly and do it today, versus letting the US and Europe continue the bloodshed in Ukraine, while building up their militaries for future bullying of China bia the Philippines.
All waiting for the inevitable does is ensure more people. Good luck managing escalation now or then.
"The most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would be that the US seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions, Russia doesn’t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off."
None of these things will happen. Ukraine's latest attack was made with the full knowledge and participation of the United States and its catamites.
What a shitshow. I've seen reports of US ISR assets flying over the the area when the attack went down.
That western citizens are being outright lied to by a group of bloodthirsty, power hungry psychopaths is outright demoralizing. Not sure why barely any sees through the bs.
As far as the basic motivation of the Deep State, Empire or whatever we call it I see three major possibilities:
1, The covid hysteria and related depopulation agenda as Plan A failed, in fact it is gradually blowing up in their respected faces without achieving any of the major goals. Therefore, they had to turn to Plan B or C. Replacing covid with a more deadly virus would take them to an uncontrollable swamp.
2, Plan B is to force Russia out of isolation and reload the dual power sharing system of the 1945 to 1991 Cold War period. This is a least likely but possible version.
3, Plan C: A decision has been reached at the 99th Degree Level to trigger a nuclear war before China reaches full domination on a planetary scale. They just want to achieve this in a way where the whole weight of the act is not assigned to them. Otherwise they will be hunted like bunnies in Australia to the end of days by the survivors of the genocide. In the renewed, simplified geopolitical image they envision they will have only stripped down security structures compared to the present. This is a game where all possible outcomes cannot be calculated. They are looking at the fast recovery rate of the post-Chernobyl environment and they realized that recovery is possible.
Any way I look at it, The International Association of Psychopaths want to carry their act to a conclusion. By the end of this century they want to alter the demographic balance of the planet to a point where they cannot be challenged anymore. This world became overcomplicated to their Neanderthal minds and the only solution they see is a close to total destruction. God will be on our side and if God is with us who can be against us?
The drone attack seriously diminished any peace talks that involve Zelensky. The guy goes on world TV and thoroughly embarrasses Putin and brings us all to the brink of nuclear war. Trump immediately put out the statement that he had no prior knowledge of the attack as the planes that were hit are part of a treaty between the US and Russia as they are constantly monitored in case they move to begin arming them. I’m not sure people realize the situation we are in right now. Whoever helped in this attack could be in deep shit here. I can’t for the life of me believe Zelensky planned this alone and if some part of the US govt went ahead and helped without Trump’s knowledge to me that’s an act of treason and should be sought out and tried and shot. If it was England or France they have opened themselves up to retaliation too. This is a deep state move trying their best to have Article 5 imposed to bring the US into this war. Any peace deal going forward will be without Zelensky and Ukraine holds even less cards than before.
This ain’t Trumps war. Watch as he walks away and Ukraine gets fucking destroyed. Then the US hedge funds will come in and rebuild it. We will make money anyway.
Putin’s asinine invasion made America energy dominant! Query—what are the two biggest special interest groups that support Republicans? Big Oil and defense contractors…that’s who has benefited most from Putin’s invasion. All Putin had to do was not invade Ukraine and Gazprom could have kept making billions in profits every year from Germany.
Germany gave Russia hundreds of billions of euros for their natural gas. And Biden allowed Russia to complete NS2 unlike Trump and Biden even gave Putin an out with his “minor incursion” comment…this is all on Putin! Now Putin’s coffers are empty and NS2 sits unused and decaying.
Biden literally threatened Nordstream on camera the same year it blew up. They were going to continue provoking until Russia responded, much as now, albeit Putin’s restraint isn’t weakness, it’s wisdom. There are other ways to respond besides doing exactly what they want you to do.
My opinion is similar to many comments here. I don't think Trump alone can decisively influence the US government machine on this matter. The European nations cannot fight against Russia in conventional warfare, but they can harass Russia enough to make the Russian people impatient. I am afraid that among all the participants of this war, Russia is the one whose government is the most susceptible to "public opinion". The first natural consequence of this landscape is that Russia will be forced to take over Ukraine (minus Galicia) and has to deal with rebuilding and development catch-up. However, when freed up, Novorossiya will catch its breath and contribute greatly to Russia's economy. Russia will need another good leader like Putin to come after Putin to finish this job and handle the high-tension relationship with the West. How I evaluate a powerful leader has a high weight on picking and grooming successors. Putin is not going to last another 20-30 years.
The US cannot coerce Russia militarily. NATO is positioning itself as Europe’s defender, but lacks the industrial capacity to sustain peer-to-peer conflict, is wholly dependent on Americans for the remotest chance of success, is unable satisfactorily to defend its sea lines of communication against Russian submarine, or its training and industrial infrastructure against strategic ballistic bombardment, is comprised of a diverse mix of inexperienced conventional forces, and lacks the capacity to think and act strategically.
Do know what NATO is?? An agreement by Europeans to die fighting our enemies before they get to our borders. NATO is the best deal America has ever been a part of.
The US doesn't have the power to end it. at best they can drag it out more. Nor do you need to stop Putin. He can die tomorrow and it would make little difference in the outcome. This has always been about what the Russian people want. They will only follow someone that will give it to them. Every deep strike into them home, only makes them more determined that every that this Ukraine government will not exist and to settle for nothing less than no NATO weapons any where in that county. Those are not Putin's term, that is the minimum that those people will accept to end it.
Trump needs to get his head out of his ass and immediately terminate all aid to the Zelenskyy regime to avoid WW III; also withdraw from an obsolete NATO as it is controlled by anti-democratic warmongers and is inimical to the survival and well-being of the American people. George Washington was right.
Maybe it's time for the Russians to give Iran & the Yemenis Oreshniks. Maybe it's time for the Russians to do to the Americans & their vassels. What they've been doing against the Russians for decades. Maybe it's time for the Chinese to help the Russians do these things. This article is stating everything from an American or Western View. Putin's patience is perceived as weakness in the West. But even he will come to the conclusion enough is enough. Let's face facts here, no matter what the outcome of this conflict is. The Americans & their vassels are going to keep on provoking Russia. The Russians will be fully aware of this. Putin is making a massive mistake if he believes for 1 second any agreement can be reached about a security for the whole of Europe. There's only him who is interested in that. Of course he is right for wanting this. But he's dealing with desperate failures posing as leaders in the West. They've got no interest in peace with Russia. One day he'll realise this fact, that's when we have to worry. He's deluded if he hasnt realised the West doesn't do common sense anymore.
While Andrew's observations are always interesting and welcome, the notion that Ukraine, Europe, and the US should submit to the tyrannical regime of the billionaire oligarch Vladimir Putin is abhorrent and seems unlikely to win popular approval in the liberal democracies. The citizens of liberal western democracies have a legitimate fear of tyranny.
* Ukraine is the only one that would have to submit to anything in the most realistic best-case scenario from Russia's perspective
* Public opinion doesn't play much of a role in the formulation of European foreign policy so I don't consider it to be relevant
* Those citizens can fear whatever it may be, and they can continue supporting national militarization policies, Russia just doesn't want them deploying troops to Ukraine
Europeans believe that what Putin has stated are his intentions in Europe are true. They correctly fear Russian tyranny and seem likely to resist the idea that Ukraine should be handed over to Putin. Believe Putin.
Correlation doesn't mean causation, as the famous saying goes, you're making a logical fallacy in believing that foreign policy is formulated based on public opinion in this case.
Anyhow, what's the relevance to my analysis? This is so random. It's not related to what I wrote about the dynamics between Russia, the US, and Ukraine.
Europe's only pertinence is the scenario of them formally dispatching troops to Ukraine during or after hostilities, but that's not the primary focus of my analysis. Also, I don't believe that public opinion at large supports them doing that.
Imperial structures have much more power than we imagine, while nominal national governments have much less power. I believe Trump was genuine in attempting to end the war, but Empire does not wish to end the war. This split has shown the true nature of Empire and where it is centered. European leaders could have followed Trump, go along with the “hegemon” but they are first and foremost creatures of Empire. All European integrationist institutions were set up to serve Empire, from EU, Euro, NATO, etc. Empire controls media, deep state structures, monetary policy, financial system, and most dominant political parties. Europe is ruled from the City of London, the true center of Empire. The US was stealthily taken over by Empire and turned into an obedient vassal; it has provided the military muscle to Empire. Trump shows the impotence of nominal institutions of governments. Empire rules directly through control of media, deep state structures, military, and all associated industrial complexes and financial interests. Empire makes its own reality. And we don’t know to what extent Empire controls levers of power in Russia. Things aren’t as they made to appear to us.
The STATE has an owner: the Ruling Class! The fractions of the Ruling Class form a consortium that administers the State according to the interests of these fractions. Deep State is nothing more than a common sense concept adorned with shallow political science. Deep State is inherent to ANY bourgeois State! The STATE is therefore adjective: Bourgeois State! The STATE cannot be approached as a guardian of ALL, i.e., defender of the COLLECTIVE! The analysis must involve the relations between the SOCIAL CLASSES!
While I agree with much of what you say, you neglect to mention that those ruling classes have united in a supra-national criminal enterprise - Empire. It is a continuation of what used to be called British Empire, which was itself a creation of dominant Big Money interests. National deep states structures aren’t defending the nationally based ruling classes alone. You can see this clearly in Germany. National economic interests were harmed by imperial meddling to put a stop to Russsia’s energy exports, but there was hardly any noise from German ruling classes. Like in all other imperial vassals, ruling classes are part of the supra-national criminal enterprise; they do what they are expected to do, and they all know their place.
Who, what, where is Empire? You have given us the where, London. But who and what makes up Empire? Name some names with power, some institutions that exercise power. "Empire" is too vague, mystical.
I cannot explain Empire in a few sentences. Just because you are unable to discern it, it does not mean it doesn’t exist. I recommend reading Carroll Quigley’s books Anglo-American Establishment, and Tragedy and Hope. There is also a recently published book Two World Wars and Hitler. Empire is hidden in plain sight.
Russians have a legitimate fear that Europeans are broke and have a ridiculous hatred of Russia, and desire to attack Russia and steal its resources. So maybe keep your military away from Russia's border.. Otherwise European "fears" (such as they are) may become a self-fulfilling prophesy. You dont want trade, fine. Feel free to shoot your own toes off. This pov is just stupid and uninformed of everything since 2008.
You go more into debt and faster! The aim is not so much military victory against Russia, as the destruction of the Western Civilization. This diminishment is a carefully managed process with multiple vectors of attack - culture, religion, philosophical underpinnings, family, culture, health, transfer of wealth, military and financial exhaustion, uncontrolled immigration inflows, inducing helplessness, fear, despair, reduction in energy and food supplies, etc.
Yes the war against Russia nominally is a war against western people in reality by their own so called ‘elites.’ Their peoples just don’t see it for the most part.
We have a legitimate fear of the tyrannies we live in, which is why we need to create fake foreign threats to distract our people and redirect their anger offshore. I have no love for Putin just as I had no love for the Taliban or Vietcong, but we are the aggressor in this conflict. We should stop and instead focus on fixing our countries.
The contrite Azovs are school kids compared with Russia's actively violent ultranationalist militias, some embraced and even mobilized by government - "Controlled nationalism." Several have official units in the Russian Armed Forces; Russian Imperial Movement, Rusich Group, Night Wolves, and the defunct Russkii Obraz, Russian National Union, Great Russia, Slavic Union, and so on.
You're describing the putin regime's modus operandi - mobilization of violent far right thugs and militias, for use domestically and militarily. Tebs if thousands, if not more.
How many book, article and white paper citations would you like?
Azov's are several hundred ragtag Girl Scouts. You're bad at this.
How cool! You believe in "democracy"! Even worse: "REPRESENTATIVE democracy!" What world do you live in? Do you really believe that you are free and control your destiny being called every 4 years to choose between marked cards?....how old are you?
The airbases of Russia's strategic nuclear fleet at Olenya in the Arctic and Belaya in Siberia are part of the list of strategic assetts which have long been disclosed by the USA and Russia to each other as part of Confidence Building Measures for lowering of nuclear threshold, and are continuously monitored by the opposite party for any suspicious movement of readying up for a strategic strike. Under George Bush Jr, American bombers had obtained high resolution photographs and telemetry data pertaining to those bases using German equipment mounted on American B 52 bombers which had overflown Russia approaching from the North Pole enroute Afghanistan on sorties for bombing Bin Laden post 9/11. Without an iota of doubt, the government or the deep state of the USA has treacherously betrayed its agreement with Russia and weaponised the previliged info it had accessed thanks to that agreement, by providing real time details of location co-ordinates of those Russia bases to the Ukrainian Army for launching bombings. This situation is no different than the spectre of USA launching a decapitation strike on those bases using nuclear tipped ICBM's or hypersonic vehicles, treacherously catching Russia unawares.
If, as Ukraine has claimed, Israeli drones were smuggled in wooden casings into Russia and then mounted clandestinely onto trucks by secret agents without knowledge of truck operators and truck drivers, and when the trucks reached some spot within range of the intended targets, the drones suddenly took off from the truck roofs and bombed the Russian bases, then this plot which is a ripoff from the Mossad leaf book, is actually a very serious instance of cross-country crime. Without a shred of doubt, those drones needed US or European satellite guidance via GPS to determine when point of preplanned takeoff had been reached during their passive piggyback ride on those trucks. Simply put, in terms of gravity of the crime it is akin to someone smuggling a knapsack nuke into Hanover airport in cargo bay of a passenger jetliner maybe Lufthansa, and then that nuke getting shifted in a check in bag into the airport and thence onward to some building or secluded open plot of land, and going boom kaput. Actually, all of this botheration is not even needed. An Oreshnik or Yakhont can do a much cleaner job without all of this cumbersome process, and the eventual firecracker burst can be spinned off as a tale of the smuggled knapsack. It makes no difference because any narrative will do so long as it amuses the audience. And perfectly legitimate, because precedent has been set by the EU already. So, don't be surprised to feel an earthquake of sorts at places you never suspected anytime from now. May Europe RIP.
What the EU has just done in Russia is no legitimate act of war. It is an instance of hijack and misuse of civilian transport and ports of call in a foreign nuclear-armed country with the motive of precipitating a global
nuclear catastrophe. It is a grave crime against humanity that merits an asymmetrical form of punishment to mete justice. Unlike legitimate belligerent acts of war, the doctrine of graded escalation does not govern the probable counter-response in such a case; in fact all moral compunctions about refraining from escalation cease to hold in this case.Even a tiny country like Israel has a doctrine of considering an attack on its nuclear arsenal as akin to a nuclear attack, and so does the UK and USA, because such a situation potentially threatens to upset the strategic balance of nuclear parity so crucial to MAD deterrence. And if such an attack has been effected illegitimately via hijack of civilian transport, it is no different than ramming a hijacked jetliner into the Empire State building with a knapsack nuke on board.
Any charade of circular peace talks with the EU or US becomes essentially pointless at this time. Russia should now go its own way, without the encumbrance of letting staged outcomes of farcical negotiations restrict the freedom of its operational strategy. Today Ukraine is saying that it had been planning meticulously for executing this (grave terrorist) operation. Well, Ukrainians had been boasting (or bluffing) two years ago that they can hijack ICBM's of Russia by means of recourse to flyby's with ECM-enabled drones. So what? Does this mean Ukraine has plans underway to MISfire Russian ICBM's with their nuclear payloads and all at maybe Africa or somewhere to render them expended without loss of European lives. Africans who might perish in the nuclear inferno are legitimate collateral casualties for the cause of a greater good? Well, there is urgent need to stop a madman gone berserk by any means, even if it amounts to a shower of lollies upon Europe with Oreshniks. Those who have executed this dastardly operation cannot be treated as PoW's upon capture. They are grave criminals and Russia ought to issue Red corner notices for their arrest. Any EU country harbouring and sheltering the suspects such as Andrei Artem Timofiev should be treated to a sumptuous feast with nukes.
There can be no mercy even for any diplomat involved in pulling this up. Would the USA spare any foreign diplomat or Ambassador were he or she to be involved in smuggling a knapsack nuke and exploding it at Ft Langley? Diplomats will perish in the ensuing nuclear war anyways, so what's the point in sanctity of diplomatic immunity?
The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's bomber fleet took 18 months to plan and execute. Zelensky said so publicly. That puts it squarely within Biden's time, although he may have been cognitively unaware, and certainly within the influence of Blinken, Sullivan and possibly Nuland. Zelensky knew of this when he made his pleas to Trump in his last White House visit and maybe thats why Trump and Vance squashed him publicly. Maybe they knew also.
USA does not need to coerce Ukraine into concessions nor sanction Russia and its' energy trade. If USA just walks away from Ukraine, (ceases all military and intelligence support, withdraws all US government agencies and defunds US NGOs supporting Ukraine), then nature will have its way, Zelensky will retreat to some remote hide-away and Russia will solve the problem.
Trump is clearly not in charge of the "Ukraininan project". Besides that he is too busy playing golf.
The idea that Trump wants to end this and restart normal relations with Russia is absurd. He's obvsly acting and now he's humiliating everyone, including Americans, in his dumb act to get a deal for the neocons.
Russia, China, and Iran should stand up to the bully jointly and do it today, versus letting the US and Europe continue the bloodshed in Ukraine, while building up their militaries for future bullying of China bia the Philippines.
All waiting for the inevitable does is ensure more people. Good luck managing escalation now or then.
Yes, good point. I think the moment for unification around that idea passed. They'd all be sitting around the high table rn if that were true.
"The most realistic best-case scenario for Russia would be that the US seriously tries coercing Ukraine into concessions, Russia doesn’t devastatingly retaliate to any subsequently desperate Ukrainian provocations, and then Ukraine capitulates shortly thereafter once the US cuts it off."
None of these things will happen. Ukraine's latest attack was made with the full knowledge and participation of the United States and its catamites.
What a shitshow. I've seen reports of US ISR assets flying over the the area when the attack went down.
That western citizens are being outright lied to by a group of bloodthirsty, power hungry psychopaths is outright demoralizing. Not sure why barely any sees through the bs.
As far as the basic motivation of the Deep State, Empire or whatever we call it I see three major possibilities:
1, The covid hysteria and related depopulation agenda as Plan A failed, in fact it is gradually blowing up in their respected faces without achieving any of the major goals. Therefore, they had to turn to Plan B or C. Replacing covid with a more deadly virus would take them to an uncontrollable swamp.
2, Plan B is to force Russia out of isolation and reload the dual power sharing system of the 1945 to 1991 Cold War period. This is a least likely but possible version.
3, Plan C: A decision has been reached at the 99th Degree Level to trigger a nuclear war before China reaches full domination on a planetary scale. They just want to achieve this in a way where the whole weight of the act is not assigned to them. Otherwise they will be hunted like bunnies in Australia to the end of days by the survivors of the genocide. In the renewed, simplified geopolitical image they envision they will have only stripped down security structures compared to the present. This is a game where all possible outcomes cannot be calculated. They are looking at the fast recovery rate of the post-Chernobyl environment and they realized that recovery is possible.
Any way I look at it, The International Association of Psychopaths want to carry their act to a conclusion. By the end of this century they want to alter the demographic balance of the planet to a point where they cannot be challenged anymore. This world became overcomplicated to their Neanderthal minds and the only solution they see is a close to total destruction. God will be on our side and if God is with us who can be against us?
The drone attack seriously diminished any peace talks that involve Zelensky. The guy goes on world TV and thoroughly embarrasses Putin and brings us all to the brink of nuclear war. Trump immediately put out the statement that he had no prior knowledge of the attack as the planes that were hit are part of a treaty between the US and Russia as they are constantly monitored in case they move to begin arming them. I’m not sure people realize the situation we are in right now. Whoever helped in this attack could be in deep shit here. I can’t for the life of me believe Zelensky planned this alone and if some part of the US govt went ahead and helped without Trump’s knowledge to me that’s an act of treason and should be sought out and tried and shot. If it was England or France they have opened themselves up to retaliation too. This is a deep state move trying their best to have Article 5 imposed to bring the US into this war. Any peace deal going forward will be without Zelensky and Ukraine holds even less cards than before.
Remember how long Trump’s temper tantrum with Zelenskii lasted? A week, tops?
Trump remains weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
This ain’t Trumps war. Watch as he walks away and Ukraine gets fucking destroyed. Then the US hedge funds will come in and rebuild it. We will make money anyway.
It's Trump’s war now. He isn't walking away, any more than he cucked out of leaving Syrian.
Putin’s asinine invasion made America energy dominant! Query—what are the two biggest special interest groups that support Republicans? Big Oil and defense contractors…that’s who has benefited most from Putin’s invasion. All Putin had to do was not invade Ukraine and Gazprom could have kept making billions in profits every year from Germany.
Germany gave Russia hundreds of billions of euros for their natural gas. And Biden allowed Russia to complete NS2 unlike Trump and Biden even gave Putin an out with his “minor incursion” comment…this is all on Putin! Now Putin’s coffers are empty and NS2 sits unused and decaying.
Biden literally threatened Nordstream on camera the same year it blew up. They were going to continue provoking until Russia responded, much as now, albeit Putin’s restraint isn’t weakness, it’s wisdom. There are other ways to respond besides doing exactly what they want you to do.
My opinion is similar to many comments here. I don't think Trump alone can decisively influence the US government machine on this matter. The European nations cannot fight against Russia in conventional warfare, but they can harass Russia enough to make the Russian people impatient. I am afraid that among all the participants of this war, Russia is the one whose government is the most susceptible to "public opinion". The first natural consequence of this landscape is that Russia will be forced to take over Ukraine (minus Galicia) and has to deal with rebuilding and development catch-up. However, when freed up, Novorossiya will catch its breath and contribute greatly to Russia's economy. Russia will need another good leader like Putin to come after Putin to finish this job and handle the high-tension relationship with the West. How I evaluate a powerful leader has a high weight on picking and grooming successors. Putin is not going to last another 20-30 years.
The US cannot coerce Russia militarily. NATO is positioning itself as Europe’s defender, but lacks the industrial capacity to sustain peer-to-peer conflict, is wholly dependent on Americans for the remotest chance of success, is unable satisfactorily to defend its sea lines of communication against Russian submarine, or its training and industrial infrastructure against strategic ballistic bombardment, is comprised of a diverse mix of inexperienced conventional forces, and lacks the capacity to think and act strategically.
Do know what NATO is?? An agreement by Europeans to die fighting our enemies before they get to our borders. NATO is the best deal America has ever been a part of.
The US doesn't have the power to end it. at best they can drag it out more. Nor do you need to stop Putin. He can die tomorrow and it would make little difference in the outcome. This has always been about what the Russian people want. They will only follow someone that will give it to them. Every deep strike into them home, only makes them more determined that every that this Ukraine government will not exist and to settle for nothing less than no NATO weapons any where in that county. Those are not Putin's term, that is the minimum that those people will accept to end it.
Trump needs to get his head out of his ass and immediately terminate all aid to the Zelenskyy regime to avoid WW III; also withdraw from an obsolete NATO as it is controlled by anti-democratic warmongers and is inimical to the survival and well-being of the American people. George Washington was right.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Preach Sinster Finster!! Preach!
Maybe it's time for the Russians to give Iran & the Yemenis Oreshniks. Maybe it's time for the Russians to do to the Americans & their vassels. What they've been doing against the Russians for decades. Maybe it's time for the Chinese to help the Russians do these things. This article is stating everything from an American or Western View. Putin's patience is perceived as weakness in the West. But even he will come to the conclusion enough is enough. Let's face facts here, no matter what the outcome of this conflict is. The Americans & their vassels are going to keep on provoking Russia. The Russians will be fully aware of this. Putin is making a massive mistake if he believes for 1 second any agreement can be reached about a security for the whole of Europe. There's only him who is interested in that. Of course he is right for wanting this. But he's dealing with desperate failures posing as leaders in the West. They've got no interest in peace with Russia. One day he'll realise this fact, that's when we have to worry. He's deluded if he hasnt realised the West doesn't do common sense anymore.
While Andrew's observations are always interesting and welcome, the notion that Ukraine, Europe, and the US should submit to the tyrannical regime of the billionaire oligarch Vladimir Putin is abhorrent and seems unlikely to win popular approval in the liberal democracies. The citizens of liberal western democracies have a legitimate fear of tyranny.
Thanks for the feedback, Mark. To your points:
* Ukraine is the only one that would have to submit to anything in the most realistic best-case scenario from Russia's perspective
* Public opinion doesn't play much of a role in the formulation of European foreign policy so I don't consider it to be relevant
* Those citizens can fear whatever it may be, and they can continue supporting national militarization policies, Russia just doesn't want them deploying troops to Ukraine
Public opinion-Eurobarometer. Europeans fear Putin.
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3372?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Europeans believe that what Putin has stated are his intentions in Europe are true. They correctly fear Russian tyranny and seem likely to resist the idea that Ukraine should be handed over to Putin. Believe Putin.
Correlation doesn't mean causation, as the famous saying goes, you're making a logical fallacy in believing that foreign policy is formulated based on public opinion in this case.
Anyhow, what's the relevance to my analysis? This is so random. It's not related to what I wrote about the dynamics between Russia, the US, and Ukraine.
Europe's only pertinence is the scenario of them formally dispatching troops to Ukraine during or after hostilities, but that's not the primary focus of my analysis. Also, I don't believe that public opinion at large supports them doing that.
Imperial structures have much more power than we imagine, while nominal national governments have much less power. I believe Trump was genuine in attempting to end the war, but Empire does not wish to end the war. This split has shown the true nature of Empire and where it is centered. European leaders could have followed Trump, go along with the “hegemon” but they are first and foremost creatures of Empire. All European integrationist institutions were set up to serve Empire, from EU, Euro, NATO, etc. Empire controls media, deep state structures, monetary policy, financial system, and most dominant political parties. Europe is ruled from the City of London, the true center of Empire. The US was stealthily taken over by Empire and turned into an obedient vassal; it has provided the military muscle to Empire. Trump shows the impotence of nominal institutions of governments. Empire rules directly through control of media, deep state structures, military, and all associated industrial complexes and financial interests. Empire makes its own reality. And we don’t know to what extent Empire controls levers of power in Russia. Things aren’t as they made to appear to us.
The STATE has an owner: the Ruling Class! The fractions of the Ruling Class form a consortium that administers the State according to the interests of these fractions. Deep State is nothing more than a common sense concept adorned with shallow political science. Deep State is inherent to ANY bourgeois State! The STATE is therefore adjective: Bourgeois State! The STATE cannot be approached as a guardian of ALL, i.e., defender of the COLLECTIVE! The analysis must involve the relations between the SOCIAL CLASSES!
While I agree with much of what you say, you neglect to mention that those ruling classes have united in a supra-national criminal enterprise - Empire. It is a continuation of what used to be called British Empire, which was itself a creation of dominant Big Money interests. National deep states structures aren’t defending the nationally based ruling classes alone. You can see this clearly in Germany. National economic interests were harmed by imperial meddling to put a stop to Russsia’s energy exports, but there was hardly any noise from German ruling classes. Like in all other imperial vassals, ruling classes are part of the supra-national criminal enterprise; they do what they are expected to do, and they all know their place.
Who, what, where is Empire? You have given us the where, London. But who and what makes up Empire? Name some names with power, some institutions that exercise power. "Empire" is too vague, mystical.
I cannot explain Empire in a few sentences. Just because you are unable to discern it, it does not mean it doesn’t exist. I recommend reading Carroll Quigley’s books Anglo-American Establishment, and Tragedy and Hope. There is also a recently published book Two World Wars and Hitler. Empire is hidden in plain sight.
Thanks, I will have a look
Russians have a legitimate fear that Europeans are broke and have a ridiculous hatred of Russia, and desire to attack Russia and steal its resources. So maybe keep your military away from Russia's border.. Otherwise European "fears" (such as they are) may become a self-fulfilling prophesy. You dont want trade, fine. Feel free to shoot your own toes off. This pov is just stupid and uninformed of everything since 2008.
How do you attqack Ruyssia if you are broke and have no military?
You go more into debt and faster! The aim is not so much military victory against Russia, as the destruction of the Western Civilization. This diminishment is a carefully managed process with multiple vectors of attack - culture, religion, philosophical underpinnings, family, culture, health, transfer of wealth, military and financial exhaustion, uncontrolled immigration inflows, inducing helplessness, fear, despair, reduction in energy and food supplies, etc.
Yes the war against Russia nominally is a war against western people in reality by their own so called ‘elites.’ Their peoples just don’t see it for the most part.
Use a rich friend to help.
We have a legitimate fear of the tyrannies we live in, which is why we need to create fake foreign threats to distract our people and redirect their anger offshore. I have no love for Putin just as I had no love for the Taliban or Vietcong, but we are the aggressor in this conflict. We should stop and instead focus on fixing our countries.
So go sign up. The various neonazi paramilitaries supporting the Kiev regime gladly accept foreign volunteers.
The contrite Azovs are school kids compared with Russia's actively violent ultranationalist militias, some embraced and even mobilized by government - "Controlled nationalism." Several have official units in the Russian Armed Forces; Russian Imperial Movement, Rusich Group, Night Wolves, and the defunct Russkii Obraz, Russian National Union, Great Russia, Slavic Union, and so on.
https://www.sova-center.ru/racism-xenophobia/publications/2024/10/d50504/
https://nvmproject.com/advanced-stats
Nazis can be found in many countries.
In Ukraine, it's like the Army outsourced its dirty work to the KKK.
You're describing the putin regime's modus operandi - mobilization of violent far right thugs and militias, for use domestically and militarily. Tebs if thousands, if not more.
How many book, article and white paper citations would you like?
Azov's are several hundred ragtag Girl Scouts. You're bad at this.
You are asserting facts not in evidence.
I'd prefer a more anemic nonresponse. My first comment included reports from SOVA Research Center - still operating in Russia.
Why haven't you done the laziest, stupidest accusations yet? About my USAID or CIA employment.
How cool! You believe in "democracy"! Even worse: "REPRESENTATIVE democracy!" What world do you live in? Do you really believe that you are free and control your destiny being called every 4 years to choose between marked cards?....how old are you?
Let me ask you a question: did you vote in the last election, or in the one before it if you live in a country that has a vote? Be honest.
Some are and some aren’t. I know both. Most of the German men I know are, and most of the German women I know aren’t.
The airbases of Russia's strategic nuclear fleet at Olenya in the Arctic and Belaya in Siberia are part of the list of strategic assetts which have long been disclosed by the USA and Russia to each other as part of Confidence Building Measures for lowering of nuclear threshold, and are continuously monitored by the opposite party for any suspicious movement of readying up for a strategic strike. Under George Bush Jr, American bombers had obtained high resolution photographs and telemetry data pertaining to those bases using German equipment mounted on American B 52 bombers which had overflown Russia approaching from the North Pole enroute Afghanistan on sorties for bombing Bin Laden post 9/11. Without an iota of doubt, the government or the deep state of the USA has treacherously betrayed its agreement with Russia and weaponised the previliged info it had accessed thanks to that agreement, by providing real time details of location co-ordinates of those Russia bases to the Ukrainian Army for launching bombings. This situation is no different than the spectre of USA launching a decapitation strike on those bases using nuclear tipped ICBM's or hypersonic vehicles, treacherously catching Russia unawares.
If, as Ukraine has claimed, Israeli drones were smuggled in wooden casings into Russia and then mounted clandestinely onto trucks by secret agents without knowledge of truck operators and truck drivers, and when the trucks reached some spot within range of the intended targets, the drones suddenly took off from the truck roofs and bombed the Russian bases, then this plot which is a ripoff from the Mossad leaf book, is actually a very serious instance of cross-country crime. Without a shred of doubt, those drones needed US or European satellite guidance via GPS to determine when point of preplanned takeoff had been reached during their passive piggyback ride on those trucks. Simply put, in terms of gravity of the crime it is akin to someone smuggling a knapsack nuke into Hanover airport in cargo bay of a passenger jetliner maybe Lufthansa, and then that nuke getting shifted in a check in bag into the airport and thence onward to some building or secluded open plot of land, and going boom kaput. Actually, all of this botheration is not even needed. An Oreshnik or Yakhont can do a much cleaner job without all of this cumbersome process, and the eventual firecracker burst can be spinned off as a tale of the smuggled knapsack. It makes no difference because any narrative will do so long as it amuses the audience. And perfectly legitimate, because precedent has been set by the EU already. So, don't be surprised to feel an earthquake of sorts at places you never suspected anytime from now. May Europe RIP.
What the EU has just done in Russia is no legitimate act of war. It is an instance of hijack and misuse of civilian transport and ports of call in a foreign nuclear-armed country with the motive of precipitating a global
nuclear catastrophe. It is a grave crime against humanity that merits an asymmetrical form of punishment to mete justice. Unlike legitimate belligerent acts of war, the doctrine of graded escalation does not govern the probable counter-response in such a case; in fact all moral compunctions about refraining from escalation cease to hold in this case.Even a tiny country like Israel has a doctrine of considering an attack on its nuclear arsenal as akin to a nuclear attack, and so does the UK and USA, because such a situation potentially threatens to upset the strategic balance of nuclear parity so crucial to MAD deterrence. And if such an attack has been effected illegitimately via hijack of civilian transport, it is no different than ramming a hijacked jetliner into the Empire State building with a knapsack nuke on board.
Any charade of circular peace talks with the EU or US becomes essentially pointless at this time. Russia should now go its own way, without the encumbrance of letting staged outcomes of farcical negotiations restrict the freedom of its operational strategy. Today Ukraine is saying that it had been planning meticulously for executing this (grave terrorist) operation. Well, Ukrainians had been boasting (or bluffing) two years ago that they can hijack ICBM's of Russia by means of recourse to flyby's with ECM-enabled drones. So what? Does this mean Ukraine has plans underway to MISfire Russian ICBM's with their nuclear payloads and all at maybe Africa or somewhere to render them expended without loss of European lives. Africans who might perish in the nuclear inferno are legitimate collateral casualties for the cause of a greater good? Well, there is urgent need to stop a madman gone berserk by any means, even if it amounts to a shower of lollies upon Europe with Oreshniks. Those who have executed this dastardly operation cannot be treated as PoW's upon capture. They are grave criminals and Russia ought to issue Red corner notices for their arrest. Any EU country harbouring and sheltering the suspects such as Andrei Artem Timofiev should be treated to a sumptuous feast with nukes.
There can be no mercy even for any diplomat involved in pulling this up. Would the USA spare any foreign diplomat or Ambassador were he or she to be involved in smuggling a knapsack nuke and exploding it at Ft Langley? Diplomats will perish in the ensuing nuclear war anyways, so what's the point in sanctity of diplomatic immunity?
The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's bomber fleet took 18 months to plan and execute. Zelensky said so publicly. That puts it squarely within Biden's time, although he may have been cognitively unaware, and certainly within the influence of Blinken, Sullivan and possibly Nuland. Zelensky knew of this when he made his pleas to Trump in his last White House visit and maybe thats why Trump and Vance squashed him publicly. Maybe they knew also.
USA does not need to coerce Ukraine into concessions nor sanction Russia and its' energy trade. If USA just walks away from Ukraine, (ceases all military and intelligence support, withdraws all US government agencies and defunds US NGOs supporting Ukraine), then nature will have its way, Zelensky will retreat to some remote hide-away and Russia will solve the problem.
Brute force is for school children.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/