The processes that are unfolding will take a lot of time to complete, perhaps even a generation or longer, so expectations of a swift transition to full-blown multipolarity should be tempered.
The problem is that US/NATO views normal economic developments in other nations and even their own populations as risk factors to their own hegemony. I am counting on acts of sabotage, similar to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. This is a target rich planet, Russia, China and Mongolia just signed a major deal to build a gas line from Siberia to China. Gradually, in the interest of world peace, these type of acts have to be taken under control.
There is a constant daily flow of drugs coming into America from Mexico, South America and the Caribbean. The US Navy just destroyed a small boat and killed 11 individuals in a well advertised act after the boat left Venezuela. (Some of the passengers just might have been simple migrants, the boat did not need an 11 person crew.) At the same time the US placed a $50 million prize on the head of President Maduro of Venezuela and is threatening that country with war. It could be a lot easier to take the larger Mexican drug shipments under control but Venezuela – with major oil reserves – is the target as it is in a political standoff with the US many years ago. It is not less than a challenge to the Monroe Doctrine that we are looking at here. And Maduro is not shy anymore, his population is fed up with the US acts and he is talking major war if attacked while collecting an army.
WAPO is calling the destroyed boat an 'alleged' drug vessel. This was a completely open boat, very narrow, built for speed, maybe around 26 to 30 feet long. Lets see if a clear image comes to the surface on the content if any.
All the US need do is offer Modi a pat on the head, the relaxation of a few tariffs and the continued assurance that the West will look the other way at any persecution of Muslims (keeping this realization in a back pocket for future use as convenient) and Modi will be back, wagging his tail like a good boy.
Andrej, remeber how just recently you expressed some disdain for BRICS, SCO, BRI etc suggesting it is more powerful in the heads of the enthusiasts than in reality.
Well, true, the block is not a power to be reckoned with and would be easy to confront. However, from one perspective it can be seen that these organisations are not in a hurry aiming to displace existing westie power structures and chase them away thus alarming them. They just fill in space which is left vacant with westies natural decline and offer evolutionary migration from Western financial claws, leaving no gap behind for westies to return. One small step at the time, boiling the westies frog. The rise is exponential: slow at first
> but nothing allow you to say it will go straight up exponentially
I asked my dad, and he allowed it.
.
I did not claim that these will rise and drive out Westies ways, my claim is that Westies will decline in inverted exponential way (slow at first then rapidly later) and BRICS, SCO, BRI or whatever other world organisation will just fill in the void. They need not doing more, just to be there ready and offer some more rope to help Westies hang themselves.
.
If you wanted to argue against what I said, you would need to argue that The West is not on an irreversible inverted-exponential decline path.
edit:
> it's easy to speak about exponential when you are at the begining
Beginning was during WW1 and WW2. Conversion from capitalism to debt and finance driven economies (debtalism) during 70's was the nail in the coffin. They will never return from ticket clipping economy model.
It's going to be interesting to see how the economics of a new system will work out. On the surface it seems the world is cursed to live with the most powerful countries hoovering up resources coupled with either inflation (via $'s for now) or deflation (via AU+ later).
Good article Mr Korybko. Although I'm not convinced by the concept of "global majority". Let me highlight a paradox: "Multipolarity" proposes "alternative global governance" - the Eastern/Global South version of globalisation, basically. Globalisation is centralisation. "multipolar centralisation" is an oxymoron. Hence, it's essentially a false construct, or perhaps, rather, an illusion ... - that one can have pseudo-'decentralisation' yet centralisation at the same time. I think this is where a lot of people get very confused and is why so many in alt-media have been portraying "multipolarity" and BRICS as something completely different from the Western model.
Leaving the above aside, though, I'm in general agreement that the shift will be slow - but even this shift (from Western Globalism to Eastern Globalism) will only be a transitory phase. Genuine/authentic decentralisation will follow, but that could take 2 to 3 generations. In the context of Thucydides’ Trap and Mimetic Rivalry (and possible contagion), the outlook is potentially very volatile.
You can read my analysis (from a Southern Hemisphere perspective situated between West and East) here:
The famous Korean Zen master Chinul once remarked that large karma moves slowly, while small karma changes quickly. This is very large karma. The article's admonitions regarding the timing are well taken.
Frankly, Andrew, I’m at a loss to understand why more wasn’t made at the SCO Leaders Meeting in Tianjin of the transparent efforts by Britain and the other usual Western suspects to stir the pot in Central Asia; to increase their presence and influence in a region which effectively constitutes the backyards of both Russia and China.
I would have thought the appointment of a British Defence attaché to Kazakhstan, plus some kind of defence pact between Britain and Astana, would, alone, have been a subject of heated discussion at the meeting.
Add to that, the presence of Erdogan in Tianjin and the silence (in public) is deafening. After all, the Turkish leader has often voiced his desire to include all Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia in an Ankara-led revival of the Ottoman Empire, thereby posing a genuine existential threat to Moscow and Beijing.
And to top it all, the subject of America helping herself to a ninety nine-year lease on the Zangezur Corridor, linking Azerbaijan and Turkiye, seemingly attracted little if any attention.
All of these measures, if realised, would almost certainly cut Russia off from her North-South passage to India and bring the BRI to a halt. Talk about existential threats.
Finally, and in passing, I wonder if the proposed SCO bank isn’t specifically intended to seduce the ‘Stans’ into marrying Moscow and Beijing until death do them part, albeit bigamously. I certainly hope these issues were discussed behind closed doors.
If we look at the progress of the BRICS, SCO, and Belt & Road, we ware witnessing the Global South moving to creat new political-economic relations based on the principle of developments.
CSTO is Russia-centric, SCO is China-centric. They served different purposes at different times. With the coined term BRICS well circulated, the older organizations will morph to serve different purposes. CSTO may add an economic component (especially after the Ukraine War dies down). As long as the organizations focus on their original goals and do the job, multiple organizations in parallel are just fine. I hope India, Brazil, and South Africa will all be able to either launch their own regional cooperation organizations or take on more active roles in existing organizations.
The problem is that US/NATO views normal economic developments in other nations and even their own populations as risk factors to their own hegemony. I am counting on acts of sabotage, similar to the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. This is a target rich planet, Russia, China and Mongolia just signed a major deal to build a gas line from Siberia to China. Gradually, in the interest of world peace, these type of acts have to be taken under control.
There is a constant daily flow of drugs coming into America from Mexico, South America and the Caribbean. The US Navy just destroyed a small boat and killed 11 individuals in a well advertised act after the boat left Venezuela. (Some of the passengers just might have been simple migrants, the boat did not need an 11 person crew.) At the same time the US placed a $50 million prize on the head of President Maduro of Venezuela and is threatening that country with war. It could be a lot easier to take the larger Mexican drug shipments under control but Venezuela – with major oil reserves – is the target as it is in a political standoff with the US many years ago. It is not less than a challenge to the Monroe Doctrine that we are looking at here. And Maduro is not shy anymore, his population is fed up with the US acts and he is talking major war if attacked while collecting an army.
I'll have a piece about Power of Siberia 2 out tomorrow.
WAPO is calling the destroyed boat an 'alleged' drug vessel. This was a completely open boat, very narrow, built for speed, maybe around 26 to 30 feet long. Lets see if a clear image comes to the surface on the content if any.
That said, US Navy don't shot like that for nothing. They issue summons before shooting.
When a warship say "stop", you better stop. If not, don't come crying.
In Mediterranean when you sail, you can be stopped by any warship of any nation or ships of Frontex.
That happened to me several times. They call you on radio, identify you and sometimes requires to board for control.
If you don't answer when you don't answer, you can have a visit of a helico or a light boat.
A fast boat which not answer and flee away is already dead.
All the US need do is offer Modi a pat on the head, the relaxation of a few tariffs and the continued assurance that the West will look the other way at any persecution of Muslims (keeping this realization in a back pocket for future use as convenient) and Modi will be back, wagging his tail like a good boy.
Andrej, remeber how just recently you expressed some disdain for BRICS, SCO, BRI etc suggesting it is more powerful in the heads of the enthusiasts than in reality.
Well, true, the block is not a power to be reckoned with and would be easy to confront. However, from one perspective it can be seen that these organisations are not in a hurry aiming to displace existing westie power structures and chase them away thus alarming them. They just fill in space which is left vacant with westies natural decline and offer evolutionary migration from Western financial claws, leaving no gap behind for westies to return. One small step at the time, boiling the westies frog. The rise is exponential: slow at first
Exponential??? Yes, it's easy to speak about exponential when you are at the begining. 😂😂
You can be sure that it's slow, very very slow, but nothing allow you to say it will go straight up exponentially.
It's only wishful thinking.
> but nothing allow you to say it will go straight up exponentially
I asked my dad, and he allowed it.
.
I did not claim that these will rise and drive out Westies ways, my claim is that Westies will decline in inverted exponential way (slow at first then rapidly later) and BRICS, SCO, BRI or whatever other world organisation will just fill in the void. They need not doing more, just to be there ready and offer some more rope to help Westies hang themselves.
.
If you wanted to argue against what I said, you would need to argue that The West is not on an irreversible inverted-exponential decline path.
edit:
> it's easy to speak about exponential when you are at the begining
Beginning was during WW1 and WW2. Conversion from capitalism to debt and finance driven economies (debtalism) during 70's was the nail in the coffin. They will never return from ticket clipping economy model.
What beginning?
It's going to be interesting to see how the economics of a new system will work out. On the surface it seems the world is cursed to live with the most powerful countries hoovering up resources coupled with either inflation (via $'s for now) or deflation (via AU+ later).
Good article Mr Korybko. Although I'm not convinced by the concept of "global majority". Let me highlight a paradox: "Multipolarity" proposes "alternative global governance" - the Eastern/Global South version of globalisation, basically. Globalisation is centralisation. "multipolar centralisation" is an oxymoron. Hence, it's essentially a false construct, or perhaps, rather, an illusion ... - that one can have pseudo-'decentralisation' yet centralisation at the same time. I think this is where a lot of people get very confused and is why so many in alt-media have been portraying "multipolarity" and BRICS as something completely different from the Western model.
Leaving the above aside, though, I'm in general agreement that the shift will be slow - but even this shift (from Western Globalism to Eastern Globalism) will only be a transitory phase. Genuine/authentic decentralisation will follow, but that could take 2 to 3 generations. In the context of Thucydides’ Trap and Mimetic Rivalry (and possible contagion), the outlook is potentially very volatile.
You can read my analysis (from a Southern Hemisphere perspective situated between West and East) here:
https://energyshifts.substack.com/p/mimetic-rivalry-in-the-tower-of-babel
The famous Korean Zen master Chinul once remarked that large karma moves slowly, while small karma changes quickly. This is very large karma. The article's admonitions regarding the timing are well taken.
Frankly, Andrew, I’m at a loss to understand why more wasn’t made at the SCO Leaders Meeting in Tianjin of the transparent efforts by Britain and the other usual Western suspects to stir the pot in Central Asia; to increase their presence and influence in a region which effectively constitutes the backyards of both Russia and China.
I would have thought the appointment of a British Defence attaché to Kazakhstan, plus some kind of defence pact between Britain and Astana, would, alone, have been a subject of heated discussion at the meeting.
Add to that, the presence of Erdogan in Tianjin and the silence (in public) is deafening. After all, the Turkish leader has often voiced his desire to include all Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia in an Ankara-led revival of the Ottoman Empire, thereby posing a genuine existential threat to Moscow and Beijing.
And to top it all, the subject of America helping herself to a ninety nine-year lease on the Zangezur Corridor, linking Azerbaijan and Turkiye, seemingly attracted little if any attention.
All of these measures, if realised, would almost certainly cut Russia off from her North-South passage to India and bring the BRI to a halt. Talk about existential threats.
Finally, and in passing, I wonder if the proposed SCO bank isn’t specifically intended to seduce the ‘Stans’ into marrying Moscow and Beijing until death do them part, albeit bigamously. I certainly hope these issues were discussed behind closed doors.
It's the way of the big fat turkey. Never speak loud, always move back, never disturb, and above all , never never upset bizness.
If we look at the progress of the BRICS, SCO, and Belt & Road, we ware witnessing the Global South moving to creat new political-economic relations based on the principle of developments.
CSTO is Russia-centric, SCO is China-centric. They served different purposes at different times. With the coined term BRICS well circulated, the older organizations will morph to serve different purposes. CSTO may add an economic component (especially after the Ukraine War dies down). As long as the organizations focus on their original goals and do the job, multiple organizations in parallel are just fine. I hope India, Brazil, and South Africa will all be able to either launch their own regional cooperation organizations or take on more active roles in existing organizations.