There will be no 100% across the board tariff on China other than a symbolic gesture. It would cause a severe disturbance in the U.S. economy, which is too dependent on Chinese finished products, components and materials. It's a bluff. Trump tried it earlier this year and quickly backpedaled. Empty store shelves and interrupted supply chains are too strong of an argument.
Even the anti-Xi faction rumored to have grabbed significant power from Xi would not kowtow 100%. The claim of power by the Chinese Communist Party had much to do with nationalism, and the CCP has never short-changed the nationalism aspect since 1949. So China will bow a little (note rare earth export from China has surged 60% over the last few years, and the US has allowed the newest AI chips to be exported to China), but not a lot.
Small correction - it's not the newest AI chips that Trump's administration allowed Nvidia to resume shipping to China, just their H20 chip. The only difference is transistor density and power requirements - otherwise they can both carry the same workload. It's just that the H20 is not on the most recent generation of chip lithography, so you need to use more of them to get the same effect (and larger power demands).
" Even the anti-Xi faction rumored to have grabbed significant power from Xi "
Ha haaa... Ok. I felt it confusedly .That could explain a lot of things.
And is there a relationship with Iran and the anti-Khamenei faction which took power, betrayed every former allies and protected ( Palestinians, Hezbollah, Syria) and snubbed a russian offer of defensive alliance?
Before they are pro-US or anti-US, they are first Chinese Communists. There is Xi's bottom line, and there is a "party line". The party as a whole is willing to compromise with the US as long as it does not hurt too much and protects their private interests. Xi's anti-US attitude has many reasons, one is that he grew up as one of Mao's admirers and is ideologically convinced that Mao's direction was the right one, although he did not agree with Mao's policies. In a sense, absolute power corrupts absolutely, and most CCP officials are more corrupt than ordinary Chinese.
His fearmongering about BRICS is the inverse of the Alt-Media's glorification of this group but both serve the purpose of creating a false dichotomy (BRICS vs the West) that in turn (inadvertently in Alt-Media's case) "justifies" more US pressure against BRICS members like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, albeit for reasons of the US' own hegemonic interests vis-a-vis their bilateral ties and not anything having to do with the talking club that's BRICS.
All this Alt-Media hype is so counterproductive because it justifies every form of pressure that the US is placing on BRICS countries due to the false dichotomy that they've created.
There's a reason why China, India, and other members' officials repeatedly stress that BRICS is non-West but not anti-West. It's Alt-Media that created this myth that's now turning into a nightmare.
Had it not been for the countless hype pieces about BRICS that have turned it into a common household name and associated it with destroying the US-led West, I'm not so sure many Americans would support all these pressure campaigns.
But since they falsely believe that BRICS is dedicated to dethroning the dollar and thus leading to (potentially radically) reduced living standards for most Americans, they go along with it, even though it's all for hegemony.
I know that I'm in the minority here, 99% of my "peers" and likely the majority of my audience thinks BRICS is going to destroy the dollar "anytime now" (it's always "right around the corner", eh? lol).
That's fine, folks can believe whatever they want to, but it's my assessed as I've explained here and elsewhere that all these hype about BRICS is backfiring but a few top influencers make a living off of this so they'll never correct the record.
China saw a fall of 20% of Russia oil purchase the 6 first months of 2025. At "only" 17 billions dollars against 100 during all 2024.
China sell for near 500 bls dollars to USA and buy for near 200 included goods and services and approximately the same with UE. Both USA, UE make 1000 billions sell, ,600 billions import. Add Japan and South Korea and you immediately see that if you only look at bizness, China and India must throw Russia away.
Resist to secondary sanctions are not at all a question of interest and big money. Because we read and hear a lot in AMC and comments that stopping oil and gaz purchase would be terrible for China and India. No. Simply no. Annoying, yes, bothering, yes, a little big more expensive, yes. But terrible economically, NO. Another bullshit sang by AMC "pundits".
Nothing compared to loose 1000 billions turnover and possibility to buy hundreds billions strategic purchases .
Then If China and India don't comply, it will only be for strategic and political reason. Not for their immediate interest.
Now let see Russia.
Russia export for 200 bls $ energy and 60% to China and India. Compared to 2,2 trillions dollars GDP, it's much but not awful.
If Trump launch those sanctions, oil and gaz price will skyrocket and black oil market will terribly grow then Russia would probably sell much less oil and gaz but far more expensive. Then it could be a marginal effect not too difficult to overcome.
Perhaps right know, Russians, Indians and Chineses work forcefully establish parallel networks in case...
One plate: Russia on the west side, the US on the east side, China north, and India south. There is a giant mountain in the shape of a cross in the center. The mountain is nearly impassable both geographically and geopolitically between the US and Russia, and between China and India. The US tries to use USD and market access to entice and whip China and India to its side to become compliant, if not as vassals. Russia has actual physical goods needed by both China and India. Plus, Russia only wants trades that both sides can agree on, and asserts much less pressure on the domestic or foreign policies of India and China. China is in a stronger position than India.
I think the bottom line is between raw materials and USD. China and India will not reach a sufficient extent of autarky in the foreseeable future. They need to import, so they need USD. The best source of USD is directly from the US through exports. I think China will comply with the US pressure marginally, while India will comply a lot. Note that Russia has railroads reaching Chinese borders before the Republic of China was established, while the Russians are still talking about a corridor to India.
The only good thing out of this wrestling is that probably more and more countries will add more physical materials into their currency collaterals. And secretly, pricing trades based on gold but settling with whatever is convenient in the clearing house. The exterior mirage of BRICS will be blown off, but the real spirit of BRICS will survive under the wind.
Remember the big shock that was for USA and Europe when the rest of the world for the first time since USSR destruction, refused to comply to sanction Russia like West waited and was sure of it.
This refusal was a cannon shot in the world order. A real revelation and a very big trauma for western rulers.
Imagine just a minute Trump launching secondary sanctions and both China and India( and Brazil and others) say: " fuck you!".
It would be an historical global shift.
Are India and China and others as ready for this test of strength as they were when they quietly welcomed the previous and stupefied the western world?
IMHO, neither China nor India is ready. certainly not others. Therefore, they will all "appear" to be "compliant". Trump will declare victory, Putin may smirk. Mostly business as usual, but some victims will pay a bit more -- as long as the euro carries some purchasing power.
The US State Department's “Pivot (back) to Asia ” presumes that Asian nations desire the presence of the US hegemony. Whereas nations such as South Korea, Japan, Phillipines, Thailand and (unfortunately) Australia may be "toeing the line" at the moment Trump's erratic decision making process and the bullying attitude to dissidents is more likely to encourage both India and China to become self sufficient in the same way that Russia has dealt with US tariffs. In my opinion it is the height of hypocrisy for the US (and Europe) to position themselves as freedom loving democracies whilst interfering in the political, financial and trade affairs of other independent nations. The Monroe Doctrine is still active. USA is, or has become a pariah on the international stage and it appears that no improvement in foreign policy is in sight.
Because you think that Europe wished the American presence
For memory, Churchill sold UK to USA in 1942, since that moment, the big proud and vaillant UK became a US puppet. Germany, Austria, Italia, Denmark were looser of WW2 and occupied, Greece were military occupied by Anglo-Saxon troop scandalously involved in a civil war that did 1 million dead and that is this betray of Yalta agreement that pushed USSR to military occupy eastern Europe( with the crocodile s tears of Churchill with his "Iron Curtain that felt on Europe". France were occupied too and de Gaulle kicked US ass to go out from our land. And untill Sarkozy, France tried to keep USA at a certain distance.
Yes, a true love story. 😂
Do you think that South American or Est and west Asía called US présence?
To the extent Trump is still rational, a proposition which I am increasingly questioning, I do not believe the sanctions will ever be applied. The majority of us simply want Ukraine ended on Russia's terms.. Most of us realize Ukraine was a disaster from inception.
Trump's rationality is now in question because of his increasingly erratic behavior, most importantly on the Epstein issue. The information space is entirely polluted on this question, but I have the following hypotheses:
1/ The Epstein volte face indicates war with Iran may be imminent because you can't ask a country being bribed/extorted by another to send troops on behalf of the country bribing/extorting you (most likely imo).
2/ Trump agreed to do this as some sort of deal with Netanyahu to avoid war with Iran.
3/ Trump's mental decline has accelerated and he now believes he can order his MAGA supporters into compliance (he can't). In this case he needs to be asked to step down or be removed by the 25th amendment. This case may also be likely given other signs of mental decline.
The one thing that can be said with certainty is that Trump decided (irrationally or not) the issue needed to ended immediately bc otherwise a multi-year inconclusive special counsel was the obvious way to bury it. Regardless of what he thinks, he lost half his base and the midterms will be lost as MAGA sits out voting. I do not think this is recoverable. War with Iran plus not ending Ukraine will only make it worse.
There is no 11 dimensional chess, no master plan. Trump appears weak, stupid and easily manipulated because he is in fact weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
BRICS is a fragile agreement. Xi not going to Brazil for the last BRICS meeting was telling as there may be leadership change within the CCP coming. BRICS as a currency faces logistics to become mainstream and most likely fails with the rise of digital currencies. Hard currency is a thing of the past. How do you move a billion dollars worth of gold? It’s very costly just from the security needed not to mention the amount and weight of the gold. Stablecoins are now eating up US treasuries as record amounts meaning the dumping of US debt that China thought would sink the country has failed. The dollar is still the currency of the world. Like it or not.
What I will say now is just a reflexion to full the debate. Not a clever analysis.
Imagine that India and China comply. Comply really, without trick to use intermediates. Imagine everybody stop officially buying cheap russian oil and gaz.
Will the prices not sky rocketed? It would be good for US producer and especially for fracturation industry.
China can buy to all Iran and Venezuelan production.
But for India, South Korea, Japan, Europe, it would be the coup de grâce.
It's a relationship based on pragmatic business. Read better and see there are lots of trade ties between the two. Russian oil is a must for both to maintain manufacturing
And DT has made a mistake in giving in to the Neo Cons on tariffs. Have you seen the obvious signs of Sino India raproachment at SCO? It's bound to happen as both are pragmatic so as not to de- growth if the US acts bully
There will be no 100% across the board tariff on China other than a symbolic gesture. It would cause a severe disturbance in the U.S. economy, which is too dependent on Chinese finished products, components and materials. It's a bluff. Trump tried it earlier this year and quickly backpedaled. Empty store shelves and interrupted supply chains are too strong of an argument.
+ I cannot imagine the Chinese openly giving in to Trump in this, because that would boil down to a humiliating act of submission.
Depending of what faction really rules China.
Even the anti-Xi faction rumored to have grabbed significant power from Xi would not kowtow 100%. The claim of power by the Chinese Communist Party had much to do with nationalism, and the CCP has never short-changed the nationalism aspect since 1949. So China will bow a little (note rare earth export from China has surged 60% over the last few years, and the US has allowed the newest AI chips to be exported to China), but not a lot.
Small correction - it's not the newest AI chips that Trump's administration allowed Nvidia to resume shipping to China, just their H20 chip. The only difference is transistor density and power requirements - otherwise they can both carry the same workload. It's just that the H20 is not on the most recent generation of chip lithography, so you need to use more of them to get the same effect (and larger power demands).
Thank you!
AI is still software programming. Therefore, it is still possible to develop an AI system without burning as many cycles as the brute force approach.
" Even the anti-Xi faction rumored to have grabbed significant power from Xi "
Ha haaa... Ok. I felt it confusedly .That could explain a lot of things.
And is there a relationship with Iran and the anti-Khamenei faction which took power, betrayed every former allies and protected ( Palestinians, Hezbollah, Syria) and snubbed a russian offer of defensive alliance?
Before they are pro-US or anti-US, they are first Chinese Communists. There is Xi's bottom line, and there is a "party line". The party as a whole is willing to compromise with the US as long as it does not hurt too much and protects their private interests. Xi's anti-US attitude has many reasons, one is that he grew up as one of Mao's admirers and is ideologically convinced that Mao's direction was the right one, although he did not agree with Mao's policies. In a sense, absolute power corrupts absolutely, and most CCP officials are more corrupt than ordinary Chinese.
https://nakayama1.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/157968800?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts%2Fpublished
Iran's domestic matters are beyond my knowledge.
You really think that the boss of a big Chinese company is a communist?
You really think that a powerful apparatchik leaving in luxury and lust offered by power is still a communist?
Do you remember the communist apparatchik of USSR and elsewhere and what they became?
This looks like a fire test for BRICS and SCO.
Absolutely, it's a do-or-die moment in my assessment.
Very interesting Andrei. Thank you.
1: both India China comply
2: both China India resist
3 China resist India comply
4 India resist China comply
We can see that in 3/4 cases BRICS are dead.
What is interesting is also to see what factions will rule in India or China.
If either China or India comply, that mean their own bizness pro-western faction rule and Xi and Modi have lost their authority.
However, they're a 5th possibility: Trump never launch those secondary sanctions.
That would mean USA fear BRICS and is finally weak.
Am I wrong? Right?
Tell me.
BRICS is over-hyped and its reality is a shadow of what Alt-Media claims:
https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/did-the-latest-brics-summit-achieve-anything-of-tangible-significance-at-all
If Trump doesn't impose any sanctions, it's not because he fears BRICS.
It would be because 100% tariffs on both for a long period could harm the US economy.
His fearmongering about BRICS is the inverse of the Alt-Media's glorification of this group but both serve the purpose of creating a false dichotomy (BRICS vs the West) that in turn (inadvertently in Alt-Media's case) "justifies" more US pressure against BRICS members like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, albeit for reasons of the US' own hegemonic interests vis-a-vis their bilateral ties and not anything having to do with the talking club that's BRICS.
All this Alt-Media hype is so counterproductive because it justifies every form of pressure that the US is placing on BRICS countries due to the false dichotomy that they've created.
There's a reason why China, India, and other members' officials repeatedly stress that BRICS is non-West but not anti-West. It's Alt-Media that created this myth that's now turning into a nightmare.
Had it not been for the countless hype pieces about BRICS that have turned it into a common household name and associated it with destroying the US-led West, I'm not so sure many Americans would support all these pressure campaigns.
But since they falsely believe that BRICS is dedicated to dethroning the dollar and thus leading to (potentially radically) reduced living standards for most Americans, they go along with it, even though it's all for hegemony.
I know that I'm in the minority here, 99% of my "peers" and likely the majority of my audience thinks BRICS is going to destroy the dollar "anytime now" (it's always "right around the corner", eh? lol).
That's fine, folks can believe whatever they want to, but it's my assessed as I've explained here and elsewhere that all these hype about BRICS is backfiring but a few top influencers make a living off of this so they'll never correct the record.
I'm completely OK with you about BRICS.
We saw the complete disaster of Kazan, and I saw, astonished, all the jesters of AMC describing it as a triumph. Bunch of assholes.
Then my bad English betrayed me. :)
What I want to mean is that if Trump don't launch secondary sanctions against China and India , it's that he fear their ability to harm US economy.
It is the same sign of weakness for USA.
If I had to bet on all that, I think by 75% that those sanctions will not be launched.
And if they are, 75% that India and China lay down and comply.
Just one more thing: "comply" is not always a binary switch, especially for geopolitics between large nations.
Tell more please.
Kinda ok, I don't buy or sell anymore to Russia, now it's Mongolia(or others) whic will buy and sell to Russia and then to us?
And if we let speak about numbers?
Russian oil represent 20% of China oil import
China saw a fall of 20% of Russia oil purchase the 6 first months of 2025. At "only" 17 billions dollars against 100 during all 2024.
China sell for near 500 bls dollars to USA and buy for near 200 included goods and services and approximately the same with UE. Both USA, UE make 1000 billions sell, ,600 billions import. Add Japan and South Korea and you immediately see that if you only look at bizness, China and India must throw Russia away.
Resist to secondary sanctions are not at all a question of interest and big money. Because we read and hear a lot in AMC and comments that stopping oil and gaz purchase would be terrible for China and India. No. Simply no. Annoying, yes, bothering, yes, a little big more expensive, yes. But terrible economically, NO. Another bullshit sang by AMC "pundits".
Nothing compared to loose 1000 billions turnover and possibility to buy hundreds billions strategic purchases .
Then If China and India don't comply, it will only be for strategic and political reason. Not for their immediate interest.
Now let see Russia.
Russia export for 200 bls $ energy and 60% to China and India. Compared to 2,2 trillions dollars GDP, it's much but not awful.
If Trump launch those sanctions, oil and gaz price will skyrocket and black oil market will terribly grow then Russia would probably sell much less oil and gaz but far more expensive. Then it could be a marginal effect not too difficult to overcome.
Perhaps right know, Russians, Indians and Chineses work forcefully establish parallel networks in case...
What do you think of this perspective?
One plate: Russia on the west side, the US on the east side, China north, and India south. There is a giant mountain in the shape of a cross in the center. The mountain is nearly impassable both geographically and geopolitically between the US and Russia, and between China and India. The US tries to use USD and market access to entice and whip China and India to its side to become compliant, if not as vassals. Russia has actual physical goods needed by both China and India. Plus, Russia only wants trades that both sides can agree on, and asserts much less pressure on the domestic or foreign policies of India and China. China is in a stronger position than India.
I think the bottom line is between raw materials and USD. China and India will not reach a sufficient extent of autarky in the foreseeable future. They need to import, so they need USD. The best source of USD is directly from the US through exports. I think China will comply with the US pressure marginally, while India will comply a lot. Note that Russia has railroads reaching Chinese borders before the Republic of China was established, while the Russians are still talking about a corridor to India.
The only good thing out of this wrestling is that probably more and more countries will add more physical materials into their currency collaterals. And secretly, pricing trades based on gold but settling with whatever is convenient in the clearing house. The exterior mirage of BRICS will be blown off, but the real spirit of BRICS will survive under the wind.
It's a big probability.
However.
Remember the big shock that was for USA and Europe when the rest of the world for the first time since USSR destruction, refused to comply to sanction Russia like West waited and was sure of it.
This refusal was a cannon shot in the world order. A real revelation and a very big trauma for western rulers.
Imagine just a minute Trump launching secondary sanctions and both China and India( and Brazil and others) say: " fuck you!".
It would be an historical global shift.
Are India and China and others as ready for this test of strength as they were when they quietly welcomed the previous and stupefied the western world?
IMHO, neither China nor India is ready. certainly not others. Therefore, they will all "appear" to be "compliant". Trump will declare victory, Putin may smirk. Mostly business as usual, but some victims will pay a bit more -- as long as the euro carries some purchasing power.
The US State Department's “Pivot (back) to Asia ” presumes that Asian nations desire the presence of the US hegemony. Whereas nations such as South Korea, Japan, Phillipines, Thailand and (unfortunately) Australia may be "toeing the line" at the moment Trump's erratic decision making process and the bullying attitude to dissidents is more likely to encourage both India and China to become self sufficient in the same way that Russia has dealt with US tariffs. In my opinion it is the height of hypocrisy for the US (and Europe) to position themselves as freedom loving democracies whilst interfering in the political, financial and trade affairs of other independent nations. The Monroe Doctrine is still active. USA is, or has become a pariah on the international stage and it appears that no improvement in foreign policy is in sight.
Because you think that Europe wished the American presence
For memory, Churchill sold UK to USA in 1942, since that moment, the big proud and vaillant UK became a US puppet. Germany, Austria, Italia, Denmark were looser of WW2 and occupied, Greece were military occupied by Anglo-Saxon troop scandalously involved in a civil war that did 1 million dead and that is this betray of Yalta agreement that pushed USSR to military occupy eastern Europe( with the crocodile s tears of Churchill with his "Iron Curtain that felt on Europe". France were occupied too and de Gaulle kicked US ass to go out from our land. And untill Sarkozy, France tried to keep USA at a certain distance.
Yes, a true love story. 😂
Do you think that South American or Est and west Asía called US présence?
Hollywood is definitely a wonderfull weapon
To the extent Trump is still rational, a proposition which I am increasingly questioning, I do not believe the sanctions will ever be applied. The majority of us simply want Ukraine ended on Russia's terms.. Most of us realize Ukraine was a disaster from inception.
Trump's rationality is now in question because of his increasingly erratic behavior, most importantly on the Epstein issue. The information space is entirely polluted on this question, but I have the following hypotheses:
1/ The Epstein volte face indicates war with Iran may be imminent because you can't ask a country being bribed/extorted by another to send troops on behalf of the country bribing/extorting you (most likely imo).
2/ Trump agreed to do this as some sort of deal with Netanyahu to avoid war with Iran.
3/ Trump's mental decline has accelerated and he now believes he can order his MAGA supporters into compliance (he can't). In this case he needs to be asked to step down or be removed by the 25th amendment. This case may also be likely given other signs of mental decline.
The one thing that can be said with certainty is that Trump decided (irrationally or not) the issue needed to ended immediately bc otherwise a multi-year inconclusive special counsel was the obvious way to bury it. Regardless of what he thinks, he lost half his base and the midterms will be lost as MAGA sits out voting. I do not think this is recoverable. War with Iran plus not ending Ukraine will only make it worse.
There is no 11 dimensional chess, no master plan. Trump appears weak, stupid and easily manipulated because he is in fact weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Wild how Trump’s move might end up pushing China and India closer—could play right into Russia’s hands.
BRICS is a fragile agreement. Xi not going to Brazil for the last BRICS meeting was telling as there may be leadership change within the CCP coming. BRICS as a currency faces logistics to become mainstream and most likely fails with the rise of digital currencies. Hard currency is a thing of the past. How do you move a billion dollars worth of gold? It’s very costly just from the security needed not to mention the amount and weight of the gold. Stablecoins are now eating up US treasuries as record amounts meaning the dumping of US debt that China thought would sink the country has failed. The dollar is still the currency of the world. Like it or not.
What I will say now is just a reflexion to full the debate. Not a clever analysis.
Imagine that India and China comply. Comply really, without trick to use intermediates. Imagine everybody stop officially buying cheap russian oil and gaz.
Will the prices not sky rocketed? It would be good for US producer and especially for fracturation industry.
China can buy to all Iran and Venezuelan production.
But for India, South Korea, Japan, Europe, it would be the coup de grâce.
No?
Great analysis.
It's a relationship based on pragmatic business. Read better and see there are lots of trade ties between the two. Russian oil is a must for both to maintain manufacturing
Follow the news more. Coz of an idiot called Lindsay Graham a united SCO statement came yesterday
Can you tell us what does this OCS statement say?
And DT has made a mistake in giving in to the Neo Cons on tariffs. Have you seen the obvious signs of Sino India raproachment at SCO? It's bound to happen as both are pragmatic so as not to de- growth if the US acts bully
You're funny.
Can you tell us those evident signs ?
My last memory of OCS is an official statement wanted by China that India refuse to sign. A true love story. 😂