The Spanish-US Spat Could Lead To NATO’s Unraveling

It’s manageable for now, but if it becomes a protracted problem and the US locates its bases from Spain to “Major Non-NATO Ally” Morocco, then the US and the EU might find themselves backing opposite sides in a future Moroccan-Spanish war over the latter’s remaining North African holdings.

A leaked Pentagon memo suggested that the US seek Spain’s suspension from NATO for refusing to allow it access, basing, and overflight (ABO) rights during the Third Gulf War. Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchez dismissed it while a NATO official said that there’s no provision for suspending members. NATO allies rallied around Spain as the BBC noted in their report, which also reminded everyone that Sanchez earlier criticized US-Israeli attacks on Iran and flat-out refused Trump’s demand to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

From Trump’s perspective, Spain was already a disloyal ally for being the only one that refused his spending demand, but refusing to allow the US ABO rights during the Third Gulf War crossed a red line. Nevertheless, as the abovementioned NATO official said, there’s no provision for suspending members. Therefore, if Trump still decides to implement the memo’s suggestion, he’ll essentially be forcing the bloc to choose between the US and Spain: it can either give Spain the cold shoulder or lose US support.

From NATO’s perspective, retaining unity is paramount in the face of what’s (arguably wrongly) perceived as the so-called “Russian threat” (that even traditionally anti-Russian Estonia no longer believes is imminent), so any such move by Trump would throw it into a dilemma. Nevertheless, if pressed to choose, it’s more important for them to remain on Trump’s good side, without which they can’t keep fueling the Ukrainian Conflict till 2029 in the hopes of a Democrat then returning to the White House.

Spain is thus expected to be thrown under the bus by NATO, but all that would mean in practice is that the US wouldn’t provide any Article 5 support in the event that Morocco tries to forcefully wrest control over Spain’s several North African holdings that Rabat considers to be occupied territory. Leading EU countries could still try to deter Morocco through hybrid economic-military means, however, and could intervene in Spain’s support against it in the scenario of war over these lands too.

Interestingly, the US might back “Major Non-NATO Ally” Morocco in that event if its air and naval base from Spain are transferred there, which is possible in light of the new 10-year American-Moroccan defense roadmap. In that case, the US and the EU could find themselves on opposite sides of a future Spanish-Moroccan War despite both being NATO members, which could further worsen intra-bloc tensions to the point of an irreconcilable rift. The US might as well try to take Greenland if that happens.

From Spain’s perspective, preserving its North African holdings is a matter of prestige, but it can’t be discounted that Spain’s growing foreign-born population could ultimately lead to a policy reversal. The 10 million already in Spain now account for one-fifth of all residents. It added ~700,000 last year alone, one-third of the EU’s increase in 2025, and Sanchez just decided to legalize ~500,000 illegal immigrants. It’s therefore within the realm of possibility that Morocco peacefully obtains those territories instead.

Reflecting on the Spanish-US spat: 1) Spain is being punished for defying the US; 2) NATO is expected to support the US over Spain if forced to choose; and 3) the US might relocate its bases from Spain to Morocco and then back Rabat against Madrid if they go to war over the latter’s North African holdings. In terms of NATO unity, this spat definitely presents a challenge thereto, but it’s still manageable for now. If it becomes a protracted problem, however, then it could potentially lead to NATO’s unraveling.