Trump authorising American Private Military Contractors (PMCs) along this corridor is a stunt to occupy this region, stress out the Russians, coerce the Iranians, appease the Armenians, excite Erdogan and laud and magnify the Azeris as well as interfering with peace negotiations in a region geographically and culturally distant from American shores. All of this with plausible deniability when things go arse up because the troops won't officially be US GIs or Marines.
It's funny( sad fun), Escobar or Crooke or others AMC jesters don't speak at all about that. Not a word. You know, Russia is the best, Russia is the strongest, US hegemon is dead....
Russia is strategically in a terrible position. For years now, AMC have been singing that Poutine is a chess master. It seems the there are a few too in Langley or State Département.
US have cut Russia west. US is cutting Russia south. If Kazakhstan or Iran turn west, it's over.
Russia challenged the global oligarchy.
I'm sorry, but it became obvious in Kazan for me that it lost this war.
The only way to win this war was not to destroy Ukrainian army. The only way was either the split of NATO or the economic collapse of NATO members.
NATO is still here, even bigger, even more submitted to USA.
In Kazan we have seen EVERY member of BRICS humiliate Poutine. Remember, the first day of summit, he claimed that BRICS must launch a financial system to kill the dollar. The day after, every members claim loud that they didn't want at all to fight against the dollar. China, India and Brazil even forced a big russian official to deny what Poutine said and pitifully claim that the agenda was not to kill dollar.
In failing to lead BRICS member in this way, Russia lost the war.
It's an attrition war. West is patient and hugely powerful than Russia.
Putin is Judeo Bolshevik end masonic puppet he is friend of Henry Kissinger. Russia is Run by judeo Bolshevik end west judeo Masonic same ethnic group.
Not their only option. A colour counter-revolution in Armenia, followed by a sovereign request for "peacekeeping forces" that seal off the borders. Or if that fails, engineering a civil war and intervening on behalf of one party followed by another frozen conflict.
The latest unrest, which Yerevan strongly suggested was foreign-backed, failed to effect any political change whatsoever on this subject.
Even if a "popular revolution" emerges yet again, it can be brutally put down without fear of Western sanctions.
The only realistic regime change scenario, in my estimation, is a "patriotic military coup" but even that's very unlikely.
Anyhow, for argument's sake, let's assume that Pashinyan is deposed one way or another (with or without foreign involvement) like you think might soon happen.
Neither Russia nor Iran, the first of which is involved in Ukraine and the second o which was hit very hard by Israel, is going to go to war over Armenia.
There's a very real risk that NATO member Turkiye would get directly involved and then escalate the crisis into a global one involving that bloc.
As for the civil war scenario, that actually increases the likelihood of foreign military intervention by Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye, not reduces it.
I just don't see either of them conforming to your expectations. I'm aware of such wishful thinking, but time and again, it almost never materializes.
I learned throughout the course of the special operation and the Israel-Resistance War not to expect Russia or Iran to "do the unthinkable".
You're welcome to continue holding out hope that they will, but I'm pretty sure that you're going to be disappointed like many of their supporters already are.
I appreciate the detailed reply, but I assure you that this is not "hope as a strategy" or wishing for a specific outcome on my part. I'm deeply saddened that the Armenians and Azeri's didn't reach a "land for peace & autonomy" deal in the 20 years after the 1990s Karabakh wars so that they could manage their national differences and prevent foreign adventurists from infiltrating their politics and weaponising their hatreds and insecurities. Small countries never seem to learn.
However, in the hierarchy of national interests (existential >vital>strategic>commercial), one is ultimately willing to die as well as kill for existential and vital interests, endure deeper sacrifices. There is deep division in Armenia and a plurality of the people believe that their existential interests are being betrayed; Iran has a vital interest in keeping friendly North-South trade route optionality, and existential interests in securing their northern border; Russia has vital & even existential interests in securing the South Caucuses from infiltration as with the Chechnyan wars. Ultimately China also has strategic and commercial interests in keeping Iran viable. Turkey, Isreal and the US have strategic and commercial interests - but these are dwarfed in comparison. These two are also at a disadvantage in projecting power into the Caucuses, and Turkey is too economically vulnerable to both Russia and the damage Iran could inflict (direct gas exports, sabotage of Azeri and even Iraqi pipelines. The US backed away in 2008, Turkey backed down after the 2015 shootdown of the Russian fighter, and again in 2020 in Idlib.
Moreover, Azerbaijan is a one-trick pony. All the economy depends on a pipeline that can suffer an accident at any time.
The reality is that Central Asia is landlocked and dominated by Russia and China. Some people have not understood what the industrial and technological capacity of China means in strategic terms.
China doesn't want a conflict, but if their interests are threatened, don't expect that it will surrender.
And China and Russia together are much more powerful today than the USA and its reluctant allies.
If Kazakhstan turns west, Russia has no access south at east of Caspian see.
If Armenia and Azerbaijan shut, it's west Caspian which is forbidden to Russia. Both make all south forbidden for Russia. West being already forbidden, it's game over.
Could you explain where China must pass to go to Armenia?
No US is not too far. It has a military slave with Turkey , just near the place with a huge military and nuclear base there.
And if you think that China will make war to Nato for Armenia, I can't nothing for you.
Other things aside, Russia needs to assure its naval superiority in the Caspian Sea. High-speed boat traffic is no match in volume against the railroads, but can still be useful when neighbors on land shows hostility before open warfare breaks out.
It's also a back door to open another front against Russia; that was the whole point of turning Armenia against Russia; G. Soros strategy; 5 years is an extremely long time to ask a human to remember. Soros, if you remember, is a protechia of the Rothschild's
This entire setup was skilfully engineered by the usual suspects:
*Stage incidents, spread rumors, and offer incentives to undermine Russia–Azerbaijan ties, thereby luring Aliyev and his advisers into a NATO/EU trap
*Use globalist (pseudo-)“nationalist” Armenians to threaten Pashinyan with a colour-revolution should he work with Russia and/or Azerbaijan vis-à-vis Turkey
*Further pit Trump vs. Russia by offering American PMCs lucrative ’security’ diplomacy—committing Trump to Armenia’s defence
Either way, the PTB have managed to estrange Trump and Aliyev from Putin, while cementing Biden’s pro-Armenia Caucasus policy. Regardless of outcome, Russia will be excluded from the region.
Anglo-Saxons, for centuries now, have a real gift for using lowlifes, scoundrels, garbages, bastards and lunatics in the countries they want to submit.
A real gift of sons of bitches.
No others as such a gift to build rotten and disgusting compradores leaders.
It's not genius, it's only a miserable shabby trick.
They think they are lions or eagles, they only are hyenas and vultures.
Ok, that works.
The Anglo abject vampire sucks the blood of world.
That works but that don't deserve any respect nor admiration.
And as every tricks, when it is known, it comes to a end.
The whole world have been fucked by Anglos the last century. Those bastards were rotting the heads of nations while Hollywood lulled consciences .
You really believe at all these bullshits or you recite the perfect prayer of little Escobar illustrated?
Incredible.
Aliyev? Servant of a so called cabale? No Aliyev had his own agenda for him and his country. That's all.
Police state?. Yes perhaps but Aliyev has a really great and good popularity.
Russia's allies will stand firmly?
What allies? How firmly? Like with the fight against the dollar?
Hadn't you enough proofs that BRICS are a big pile of shit? Without cohesion, totaly unready, just a bizness club of second class for outsider only anxious to access the first class for half of them.
People are waking up? What people? Those which elect Macron, Merz, Starmer and all the bunch of jester?
Those which are being replaced by Africa's and West Asians?
Wake up yourself sir.
In following the flute players in a kind of enchanted dream you go straight toward the river.
Trump authorising American Private Military Contractors (PMCs) along this corridor is a stunt to occupy this region, stress out the Russians, coerce the Iranians, appease the Armenians, excite Erdogan and laud and magnify the Azeris as well as interfering with peace negotiations in a region geographically and culturally distant from American shores. All of this with plausible deniability when things go arse up because the troops won't officially be US GIs or Marines.
This is no longer a local conflict. It’s a geopolitical corridor war:
The United States aims to block Russia and Iran from southward expansion.
Turkey is building a Turkic axis across the Caucasus.
The EU wants energy and transit routes independent of Moscow.
China has recalibrated east-west logistics through Iran.
And Russia—once the unchallenged hegemon in the South Caucasus—is being outflanked on all sides. see also my substack article:
https://leonvermeulen.substack.com/p/the-south-caucasus-corridor-war-how
How much?
Strategic disaster.
It's funny( sad fun), Escobar or Crooke or others AMC jesters don't speak at all about that. Not a word. You know, Russia is the best, Russia is the strongest, US hegemon is dead....
Russia is strategically in a terrible position. For years now, AMC have been singing that Poutine is a chess master. It seems the there are a few too in Langley or State Département.
US have cut Russia west. US is cutting Russia south. If Kazakhstan or Iran turn west, it's over.
Russia challenged the global oligarchy.
I'm sorry, but it became obvious in Kazan for me that it lost this war.
The only way to win this war was not to destroy Ukrainian army. The only way was either the split of NATO or the economic collapse of NATO members.
NATO is still here, even bigger, even more submitted to USA.
In Kazan we have seen EVERY member of BRICS humiliate Poutine. Remember, the first day of summit, he claimed that BRICS must launch a financial system to kill the dollar. The day after, every members claim loud that they didn't want at all to fight against the dollar. China, India and Brazil even forced a big russian official to deny what Poutine said and pitifully claim that the agenda was not to kill dollar.
In failing to lead BRICS member in this way, Russia lost the war.
It's an attrition war. West is patient and hugely powerful than Russia.
And Poutine is not eternal.
I don't know how Russians will deal with that.
Putin is Judeo Bolshevik end masonic puppet he is friend of Henry Kissinger. Russia is Run by judeo Bolshevik end west judeo Masonic same ethnic group.
This is quickly turning into a catastrophe for Russia.
What happens if Russia and Iran decide to overturn the chessboard, like Russia did in Georgia in 2008?
I don't foresee either of them going to war with Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye over this.
Not their only option. A colour counter-revolution in Armenia, followed by a sovereign request for "peacekeeping forces" that seal off the borders. Or if that fails, engineering a civil war and intervening on behalf of one party followed by another frozen conflict.
The latest unrest, which Yerevan strongly suggested was foreign-backed, failed to effect any political change whatsoever on this subject.
Even if a "popular revolution" emerges yet again, it can be brutally put down without fear of Western sanctions.
The only realistic regime change scenario, in my estimation, is a "patriotic military coup" but even that's very unlikely.
Anyhow, for argument's sake, let's assume that Pashinyan is deposed one way or another (with or without foreign involvement) like you think might soon happen.
Neither Russia nor Iran, the first of which is involved in Ukraine and the second o which was hit very hard by Israel, is going to go to war over Armenia.
There's a very real risk that NATO member Turkiye would get directly involved and then escalate the crisis into a global one involving that bloc.
As for the civil war scenario, that actually increases the likelihood of foreign military intervention by Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye, not reduces it.
I just don't see either of them conforming to your expectations. I'm aware of such wishful thinking, but time and again, it almost never materializes.
I learned throughout the course of the special operation and the Israel-Resistance War not to expect Russia or Iran to "do the unthinkable".
You're welcome to continue holding out hope that they will, but I'm pretty sure that you're going to be disappointed like many of their supporters already are.
I appreciate the detailed reply, but I assure you that this is not "hope as a strategy" or wishing for a specific outcome on my part. I'm deeply saddened that the Armenians and Azeri's didn't reach a "land for peace & autonomy" deal in the 20 years after the 1990s Karabakh wars so that they could manage their national differences and prevent foreign adventurists from infiltrating their politics and weaponising their hatreds and insecurities. Small countries never seem to learn.
However, in the hierarchy of national interests (existential >vital>strategic>commercial), one is ultimately willing to die as well as kill for existential and vital interests, endure deeper sacrifices. There is deep division in Armenia and a plurality of the people believe that their existential interests are being betrayed; Iran has a vital interest in keeping friendly North-South trade route optionality, and existential interests in securing their northern border; Russia has vital & even existential interests in securing the South Caucuses from infiltration as with the Chechnyan wars. Ultimately China also has strategic and commercial interests in keeping Iran viable. Turkey, Isreal and the US have strategic and commercial interests - but these are dwarfed in comparison. These two are also at a disadvantage in projecting power into the Caucuses, and Turkey is too economically vulnerable to both Russia and the damage Iran could inflict (direct gas exports, sabotage of Azeri and even Iraqi pipelines. The US backed away in 2008, Turkey backed down after the 2015 shootdown of the Russian fighter, and again in 2020 in Idlib.
Moreover, Azerbaijan is a one-trick pony. All the economy depends on a pipeline that can suffer an accident at any time.
The reality is that Central Asia is landlocked and dominated by Russia and China. Some people have not understood what the industrial and technological capacity of China means in strategic terms.
China doesn't want a conflict, but if their interests are threatened, don't expect that it will surrender.
And China and Russia together are much more powerful today than the USA and its reluctant allies.
No one would accept mobilisation in Europe.
yes, at the small terrorism game, an underground group can lead a hard life to PMS and even Azeri or Turkish forces.
This group, feed by Iran or Georgia can transform west Armenia in Hell for a compradore government or foreign occupation forces.
And China.
A little bit too far no?
To begin with have a look at a map. Russia and China can access every region in Eurasia. The USA is too far, not China.
You better look a map yourself.
If Kazakhstan turns west, Russia has no access south at east of Caspian see.
If Armenia and Azerbaijan shut, it's west Caspian which is forbidden to Russia. Both make all south forbidden for Russia. West being already forbidden, it's game over.
Could you explain where China must pass to go to Armenia?
No US is not too far. It has a military slave with Turkey , just near the place with a huge military and nuclear base there.
And if you think that China will make war to Nato for Armenia, I can't nothing for you.
If Kazakhstan turns West it would be occupiedby China and Russia in one week.
Total population of Kazakhstan?
How many of those are Russian?
Turkey to militaryly confront Russia and China for the sake of Americans wet dreams? Ah, yes because they are slaves!
Send your application to some intelligent intelligence service. You have a great future.
Russia and China Invade the Kazakhstan?
Stop smoking crack man.
😂😂😂
Incredible to live in such chimera.
Russia is already at war with Ukrain, it don't invade Armenia, why do you want it invade Kazakhstan, three time more populated and 100 time bigger?
And you think China will follow?without a frontier with Kazakhstan ?
You make me think to a kid who say " my daddy will come and beat you".
Other things aside, Russia needs to assure its naval superiority in the Caspian Sea. High-speed boat traffic is no match in volume against the railroads, but can still be useful when neighbors on land shows hostility before open warfare breaks out.
Russian dithering and indecision writ large.
That analysis is the equivalent of a snake 🐍 in the grass
Can you explain please?
It's also a back door to open another front against Russia; that was the whole point of turning Armenia against Russia; G. Soros strategy; 5 years is an extremely long time to ask a human to remember. Soros, if you remember, is a protechia of the Rothschild's
This entire setup was skilfully engineered by the usual suspects:
*Stage incidents, spread rumors, and offer incentives to undermine Russia–Azerbaijan ties, thereby luring Aliyev and his advisers into a NATO/EU trap
*Use globalist (pseudo-)“nationalist” Armenians to threaten Pashinyan with a colour-revolution should he work with Russia and/or Azerbaijan vis-à-vis Turkey
*Further pit Trump vs. Russia by offering American PMCs lucrative ’security’ diplomacy—committing Trump to Armenia’s defence
Either way, the PTB have managed to estrange Trump and Aliyev from Putin, while cementing Biden’s pro-Armenia Caucasus policy. Regardless of outcome, Russia will be excluded from the region.
How does Iran expand southward?
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Nobody know who are the loosers. And being on the winner side don't lean that you're a winner too. Side of winner? Ask to Ukrainians.
Not "people" but "some people".
Shade.
Anglo-Saxons, for centuries now, have a real gift for using lowlifes, scoundrels, garbages, bastards and lunatics in the countries they want to submit.
A real gift of sons of bitches.
No others as such a gift to build rotten and disgusting compradores leaders.
It's not genius, it's only a miserable shabby trick.
They think they are lions or eagles, they only are hyenas and vultures.
Ok, that works.
The Anglo abject vampire sucks the blood of world.
That works but that don't deserve any respect nor admiration.
And as every tricks, when it is known, it comes to a end.
The whole world have been fucked by Anglos the last century. Those bastards were rotting the heads of nations while Hollywood lulled consciences .
Vampire is naked now.
You really believe at all these bullshits or you recite the perfect prayer of little Escobar illustrated?
Incredible.
Aliyev? Servant of a so called cabale? No Aliyev had his own agenda for him and his country. That's all.
Police state?. Yes perhaps but Aliyev has a really great and good popularity.
Russia's allies will stand firmly?
What allies? How firmly? Like with the fight against the dollar?
Hadn't you enough proofs that BRICS are a big pile of shit? Without cohesion, totaly unready, just a bizness club of second class for outsider only anxious to access the first class for half of them.
People are waking up? What people? Those which elect Macron, Merz, Starmer and all the bunch of jester?
Those which are being replaced by Africa's and West Asians?
Wake up yourself sir.
In following the flute players in a kind of enchanted dream you go straight toward the river.
Wake up sir
I don't pretend to anything and you should begin by answer my arguments.
Keep on dreaming with jesters sir.