The US-Azerbaijani Strategic Partnership Could Destabilize Russia’s Southern Periphery

On the pretext of securing critical mineral and energy supply chains from Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”, Azerbaijan is poised to become the launchpad for expanding NATO influence across the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.

Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Azerbaijan, which is the last part of his South Caucasus tour that also took him to Armenia, saw the signing of a strategic partnership charter between them. Three parts stand out: the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) will connect with the “Middle Corridor across the Caspian Sea in Central Asia; critical minerals and energy will be among the goods that’ll transit through them to the West; and the US and Azerbaijan will strengthen security cooperation.

They respectively challenge Russian interests by: injecting Western economic influence into the South Caucasus and Central Asia; creating critical supply chains that the West accordingly has an interest in securing; and establishing a launchpad for expanding NATO influence in the region on that pretext. Expanding upon the last point, Azerbaijan announced last November that its armed forces completed their conformation to NATO standards, therefore enabling them to serve this military-strategic purpose.

Shortly after, “shadow NATO” Azerbaijan’s and NATO member Turkiye’s “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) partner Kazakhstan announced that it’ll begin producing NATO-standard shells, which might place it on an irreversible collision course with Russia. This was elaborated on here, which detailed how TRIPP optimizes the Azeri-Turkish Axis’ (ATA) military logistics for helping Kazakhstan’s armed forces conform to NATO standards in coordination with the US and swiftly supply them in the event of a crisis with Russia.

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces’ successful conformation with NATO standards was already concerning enough from the perspective of Russia’s national security interests, but Kazakhstan’s following their lead would be even more concerning due to them sharing the world’s longest border, thus possibly sparking a crisis. Even if one doesn’t break out over this issue, it could break out over Kazakhstan reducing its export dependence on the Russian-transiting Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which could take two forms.

Conor Gallagher wrote here in early November about how this could manifest through either an underwater Trans-Caspian Pipeline, which would risk Russia and Iran’s ire due to a regional convention prohibiting unilateral work on this, or a tanker fleet for the same purpose. Strengthened US-Azerbaijani security cooperation, particularly through the US’ initial dispatch of an undisclosed number of ships, is meant to deter Russia and could easily expand to include Kazakhstan and gas-rich Turkmenistan.

On the pretext of securing critical mineral and energy supply chains from Central Asia via TRIPP, which respectively help the US and the EU diversify from dependence on China and Russia, Azerbaijan will become the launchpad for expanding NATO influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery. Just like Azerbaijan became a member of “shadow NATO”, which refers to de facto membership without Article 5 guarantees (like Ukraine arguably has), so too might Kazakhstan soon try to follow in its footsteps.

The ATA is expected to follow US guidance in helping fellow OTS partner Kazakhstan’s armed forces conform to NATO standards as well as militarize the Caspian Sea as part of their encirclement of Russia. In that event, Central Asia would follow the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea in becoming the next new zone of competition between US-led NATO and Russia, therefore spiking the risk of transregional instability across this vast space and associated chances of a Ukrainian-like conflict breaking out.