On the pretext of securing critical mineral and energy supply chains from Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”, Azerbaijan is poised to become the launchpad for expanding NATO influence across the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.
Allowing the US to enter and takeover the Southern flank of Russia, while attacking Russia in Ukraine, was a huge fuck up. Russia should have never, ever, ever allowed the last Azeri-Armenian War to happen. Russia has to be more vigilant regarding the US/NATO plans to encircle it with enemies to it and/or to its allies like Iran and China. No more Mr. Nice Guy. Don't allow that shit to happen again, and look for ways to revert the damage done.
Looking at the 22 last years of russian history, one can itself if everybody smoke pot and kool-aid in the secret services and diplomacy on this country?
They saw nothing coming in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. They were unable to protect from assassination Givi, Motorola , the president of Donetz Republic and others officials of Donbass. They saw nothing coming in Georgia, in Azerbaijan, in Armenia, they let Kazakhstan, Ouzbékistan, Bielarus shake their booty in front Oncle Sam. They let their friend Imran Khan in Pakistan, ousted by a coup without doing anything, even when Khan's supporters where killed by army in the streets. They saw nothing coming in Syria, in Venezuela.
At this point, after all that's happened along Russia's southern periphery since TRIPP's unveiling last August, I honestly don't even think that the MFA has a real plan in mind.
They seem to have, once again, been caught completely flat-footed. Without radical reforms, and I'm not getting my hopes up, I'm worried that Russian diplomacy will continue falling further and further behind till there's another full-blown crisis.
Here's a relevant post that I made elsewhere on social media in response to an online friend sharing some mild critiques of the MFA. For background, they're a former diplomat but now do something else, it's unclear:
I wholeheartedly agree with your critiques of the MFA.
I’m a proud “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” (NRPR) who’s lived here for 12.5 years, received my MA in IR and PhD in Poli-Sci at MGIMO, and worked at Sputnik for half a decade (2014-2019) before freelancing as a strategic consultant.
With all due respect to Russian diplomats, in my honest opinion, the MFA is struggling to adapt to what some have called this “Age of Complexity”.
There are several problems that I’ll briefly list:
* broken feedback loops lead to echo chambers and groupthink, thus perpetuating wishful thinking and leading to Russia overestimating its successes, capabilities, partnerships, etc. while underestimating its adversaries’
* the already broken feedback loops are also tainted by literal propaganda entering what should have remained closed loops through the MFA’s partnerships with top NRPR influencers who always without exception push the totally discredited “5D chess master plan” narrative that Russia is “always winning” and even indisputable setbacks are “part of the plan” so no policy changes of any sort are required
* the LavZakh style of public messaging — my portmanteau of Lavrov and Zakharova — might go viral on social media but, especially in Zakharova’s case with all due respect to her, comes off at times as clownish to foreign observers and is also sometimes bereft of any actual policy substance (mostly just being wishful thinking and tough-sounding rhetoric that’s only rarely followed up by action)
* likewise, it also looks very bad to foreign eyes for the MFA — including Lavrov and Zakharova — to publicly associate with (as in meet and give interviews to) NRPRs who are genuinely anti-Semitic (they don’t just criticize Israel but regularly disparage Jews, Judaism, and the Torah [I’m not Jewish and I have no problem with anyone who criticizes Israel]) and in two cases are a “former” MI6 operative and CIA analyst (there’s also a guy who boasts on video about his ties to Asian and Western agencies who’s met with Lavrov several times and even once had a private dinner with Zakharova and a few others)
In my assessment, one of the greatest foreign policy setbacks for Russia in decades was Armenia and Azerbaijan replacing Russia’s mediation with the US’ and agreeing to TRIPP, which opens Central Asia to the US and NATO and therefore puts newfound multifaceted (and perhaps one day, God forbid, Ukrainian-like) pressure upon Russia along its entire southern periphery.
There has been no public accounting of this enormous grand strategic setback, nobody has taken responsibility, and instead it’s practically taboo to talk about, with there being no indication that the MFA saw this coming or has yet to formulate a response over half a year later.
All of this seems to have emboldened Kazakhstan to declare its plans last December to begin producing NATO-standard shells, something that would have been absolutely unthinkable four years ago but was announced and will now be implemented with barely a shrug from the MFA (and who knows what’ll come next God forbid).
Fresh and creative thinking is urgently required to surmount these new challenges along Russia’s entire southern periphery among others, and attitudes must shift from instinctively disregarding all signs of impending setbacks till it’s too late like has been the case up till now to taking them seriously and behaving proactively to preempt foreign policy setbacks, but the “strategic culture” there is rigidly against this from what I can tell from my MGIMO and other experiences alongside my very close years-long observations of the MFA.
I’m extremely concerned about Russia’s future, and I say this with all honesty as someone with full stakes in this country’s success (my wife and two kids are Russian citizens, I own my apartment, and my life’s savings is in rubles).
I have no idea how Russia is going to manage these very serious challenges if far-reaching aren’t urgently implemented at the MFA from the top down, hopefully as soon as possible or at least right after the SMO ends.
I believe in the value of constructive critiques, which is pretty much anathema to the MFA, and accordingly see so many lost opportunities and setbacks in Russian foreign policy from the start of the SMO to today that are all mostly overshadowed by over-the-top rhetoric from LavZakh about BRICS and multipolarity.
It genuinely seems to me like there’s no real sense of direction, that the increasingly cascading foreign policy setbacks caught the MFA completely flat-footed, and that the next 5-10 years at least might therefore be very difficult for Russia, God forbid.
Anyone who raises awareness of latent threats is shunned by the MFA. They don't want to hear about any of this. From their perspective, everything is more or less fine, and bringing up latent threats implies -- whether intentionally or not -- that they didn't properly do their jobs to preemptively avert them.
Calm, sober analyses of whatever the situation might be are rejected in favor of over-the-top rhetoric lambasting Russia's adversaries and proclaiming the inevitability of Russia's supreme victory over them. It sounds childish to folks like us, but this is how they behave. Just listen to Lavrov or Zakharova.
The worst thing to happen to the MFA was the inclusion of literal propaganda into what should have remained their closed (albeit already arguably broken) feedback loops. From 2023 onward, they started bringing in a bunch of top "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" (NRPR) influencers to Russia for official events.
This was the first time that these figures (propagandists in my opinion since they're not actual analysts but let's stick with calling them "influencers" to be "nice") were allowed to share their views (simply a reflection of the MFA's in every case) with policymakers, experts, and even domestic media at scale.
Prior to this point, Russia kept its policymakers and experts away from its "influencers" in order to avoid the latter contaminating their precious feedback loops by lending false credence as "independent analysts/experts/journalists" (how they're misleadingly presented) to wishful thinking fantasies.
From 2023 onward, however, some were shadowing Valdai, others appearing at SPIEF, still more attending major events like early 2024's inaugural Multipolarity Forum, all the while contaminating Russia's policymaking feedback loops, which couldn't have happened without someone up top allowing it.
These shadowy forces up above, whoever they are and whatever institution they work for, made the decision to have this happen in order to convince policymakers and experts NOT to reform their policies and instead "stick with the plan" DESPITE the clear setbacks that were beginning to pile up.
It gets even more scandalous when you realize that some of these "influencers" are literal spooks, well technically "former" spooks, or still actively in touch with foreign intelligence agencies like one of them occasionally boasts about, yet these shady folks are given almost full access to anyone they want to meet here.
In fact, one of them had a major press tour interviewing something like two dozen leading Russians across a range of institutions, all organized by publicly financed media and a certain organization here. Nobody anywhere in the feedback loop thought to second-guess the wisdom of this.
Instead, it's full speed ahead, doubling down on having these "influencers" contaminate the precious feedback loops (albeit already arguably broken) of what are supposed to be the country's brightest minds. Watching this unfold, I knew for sure that everything would begin spiraling.
No other major country does this, in fact, it's unthinkable. It's incredibly disappointing to watch it unfold here in Russia, where "influencers" are rebranded as "experts" and then allowed to push talking points to actual experts for pressuring them to "stick with the plan" (that obviously requires reform!).
This is a perfect case in point of how surreal everything has gotten. So Pepe boasted the other day about one of his friends in an unnamed European intelligence service at 31:32 of this video:
Think about it: he meets with Lavrov yearly as part of the "International Russophile Movement", once had a private dinner with Zakharova and few others during SPIEF, and has access to every expert in the country.
He's even interviewed Glazyev, Russia's most brilliant official when it comes to Eurasian integration, all while having friends in unnamed European intelligence services, it turns out.
Don't forget that he infamously boasted about contacts in "two separate intelligence services from two separate Asian nations" back during his big hoax in early 2024 about Russia shooting down a nuclear-armed Israeli F-35 over Jordan to save Iran.
So we have someone who's in touch with at least THREE separate intelligence services on TWO separate continents enjoying unrestricted access to whoever the heck he wants in this country.
Imagine if something like this happened in the US: one of Rubio's friends with whom he meets yearly and who's privately dined with his spokesperson, who has access to a bunch of officials on Capitol Hill, the White House, and top US research institutions, casually boasts about his Russian, Chinese, and/or Iranian intelligence friends.
There'd be a global scandal, a MAJOR investigation, possible resignations, and the person at the center of the scandal would surely be aggressively interrogated the next time they came to the US. There might even be an extradition request made if they're in a US-friendly country that might detain them as a favor.
But in Russia? Nah, nope, nothing to see here, no scandal at all, nobody has even the slightest concern that maybe just maybe the guy who's cavorting with multiple intelligence organizations (at least one from officially designated unfriendly countries -- keep in mind that he has a residence in France and is regularly in Italy so maybe one of those two) is being "debriefed" by them every time he leaves Russia and might even be tasked with maliciously influencing them and gathering "socio-political intel".
You'd think that this would be a concern, that they'd want to protect their Foreign Minister and other officials from foreigners who openly boast about their ties to foreign -- including officially designated unfriendly -- intel services, but nope, they don't, and that's a real "black pill" if there ever was one for Russia. If you extrapolate from this and what it all means, not even counting other similar examples, it'll take you to a very dark place.
Nobody here or read this jester no more in our country.
Even in AMC.
If he was really pro-Russian, his live in France and UE would be a pure Hell.
A man, a foreigner , who meet periodically russian officials at the highest level , and sing the glory of Russia every day, would be harshly persecuted.
If he live quietly here, he must have very serious protections.
Yes, he regularly does podcasts from his apartment in Paris and doesn't hide it. I also completely agree that his lack of problems with European officialdom in spite of him publicly meeting with top Russian officials, from Lavrov to Zakharova and Glazyev on down to bunch of others, is very suspicious and hints at something very devious behind the scenes.
The structural problems that I very briefly touched upon above might have remained manageable had Trump not pulled out all the stops and returned to the "might is right" model of International Relations.
The Russian MFA based everything on the assumption that he'd remain restrained by the so-called "rules-based order", thus giving Russia the leeway and breathing space it needs during this sensitive moment.
Instead, as some foresaw (but the MFA typically ignored the warnings), he's "escalated to de-escalate" (I produced a bunch of analyses predicting and covering this from November 2024 onwards).
He went so far and abandoned all diplomatic conventions that Russia is now like a deer in headlights with absolutely no idea what to do next or what will come next. In my opinion, it's now purely improvising.
Trump, Colby, Rubio, and Bessent all believe -- whether one agrees with them or not -- that Russia is weak, spiraling (nowhere near as extremely as its media enemies misportray it as though) and can thus be exploited.
They're sharks, there's blood in the water, and they're circling to get their chunk of flesh. They see no reason to give Russia much of what it demands and instead are only offering scraps as part of a lopsided deal.
Had Russia compromised last spring, it would have probably gotten many more preferential deals, but now the diplomatic and other initiatives apart from the military one are the US', no longer Russia's.
On the military topic, it's of course good that Russia continues to gain ground, but the MFA presumably advised Putin not to compromise up until this point due to three assumptions that have yet to come to pass.
These are: 1) Trump quickly abandoning Ukraine; 2) Europe pulling out of the fight after a wave of conservative revolutions; and 3) the front lines collapsing. I increasingly doubt that any of this will happen.
That's why we're now seeing more foreign policy setbacks for Russia as the US more aggressively exploits what Trump 2.0 genuinely (whether rightly or wrongly) perceives to be its weaknesses.
I also suspect that Rubio and Colby at least figured out what I have about the MFA's broken feedback loops and know how to masterfully exploit them to the hilt with or without their "agents of influence" here.
Russian bureaucracy is infamously "stubborn" and averse to change of any sort, which is why the MFA still rejects any constructive critiques and only surrounds itself with foreign "advisors" who tell it what it wants to hear.
For instance, I met with a very well-connected friend a year ago (almost exactly!) with whom I'd lost touch over the past decade or so, and we discussed Trump, peace talks, etc. for something like 5-6 hours.
It was very enlightening and I enjoyed it, the friend is very nice and intelligence person, but they also in retrospect seemed to be reflecting the official MFA view of everything.
I did my utmost to argue the case for mild compromises in exchange for strategic cooperation with the US on resources (oil, gas, minerals) and essentially jointly shaping the world order.
Those who've read my work for a while, especially back then, know what my vision was since I don't hide it. For those who haven't, then this piece summarizes what I had in mind:
My friend respected my views and understood that I'm just trying to help Russia, but they insisted that Russia would never entertain such possibilities, instead arguing that time was indeed on Russia's side.
Trump would drop Ukraine in the next month at most, they claimed, since he's just a business who doesn't care about geopolitics. They compared him to a corrupt Russian oligarch too.
I counterargued that he's surrounded by very serious people this time around who have very detailed plans and are ready to unleash the US' full might in every way imaginable but my friend didn't believe me.
They intimated that Russia could just "buy Trump out" by dangling some symbolic deals, letting time run its course to break the front lines, and everything would end in the best way possible.
Remember, this isn't a run-of-the-mill NRPR propagandist but a very serious person who's extremely well-connected with the government, think tanks, business, etc.
I explained how Trump won't follow Biden's Afghan footsteps in Ukraine and go down in history for overseeing what would then be the US' most epic strategic loss by surrendering Ukraine to Russia.
My friend disagreed, claiming that all of Russia's goals will indeed be achieved in full, every single maximalist one too, and the world order will then be shaped more by Russia than anyone else.
I gradually realized that they weren't just exchanging views with me, but perhaps maybe wanted me to reflect their views in my work, and that might explain the time that they graciously invested in me.
Nevertheless, as everyone here should know by now, I'm my own man with my own ideas and I won't reflect anyone else's if I don't sincerely share their views, and I strongly disagreed with my friend.
It was after our conversation, recalling how well-connected they are and how they basically share the MFA's unofficial views, that I got a very bad feeling and started to fret about Russia's future.
I then saw so many opportunities wasted, as I sincerely consider the course of events to be, while pressure on Russia intensified and the world order fell apart to Russia's detriment.
I love this country and have invested in its future as I explained in a prior post above, which is why all of this worries me so much, unlike other NRPRs with absolutely zero stakes in Russia's future.
Of course, the MFA being the MFA, they don't see things that way; to them, foreign bullhorns of literal Russian propaganda are Russia's best friends ever, not those who warn it about impending problems.
Is this a decline in results from the RF Diplomatic Corp or a disguised desire to be achieved for undisclosed parties benefit.
Such seemingly inept results continuing to repeat again and again seems highly improbable without some hidden agenda as the SMO is playing out up till now has also appeared to be.
Russia went into Syria and opened up a can of whoop-ass, it's not their fault they couldn't get their shit together so are they supposed to fight all the evil in the world? People want to 2nd guess Pres Putin who else can walk the line between Armageddon and freedom on Earth?
Andrew, I you are right, we live the most dangerous moment of humanity.
Because if Russia leaders are blind vainglorious, we can say exactly the same of USA. The only difference is that at the table of poker, Russia had a three of king and USA has four aces.
But both are blinded by self-satisfaction for the first and insane hubris for the seconds.
And History learned me that the worst cataclysmic wars never comme by the will of belligérants but by a poor assessment of the situation.
And with two ennemies which are way off, and both sitting on a huge pile of weapons, it's heavily dangerous.
What you say about Russians officials explain perhaps the cautious behaviour of Chineses and Indians
Russia;s alley is IRAN. Between Russia & Iran are 3 small countries, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan. They can be crushed in a short period of time. If the USA is depending on such small allies no wonder the USA is not making any gains against Russia. Russia before long will take ALL of U kraine. . Together they will be the biggest,nuclear power country along with the USA but will have the biddest reseaves of oil, gas, minerals and " Black Earth " soils .
They are never been alley Iran end ander 3 small country. Problem Russia is Putler end oligarch in Kremlin end FSB . Russia loos evry single they on geopolitical issues . That’s is problem of this country end world wen niuwe people rise on tunnel in Russia then start WWW 3 . Be ready for this end after this world newer been same again !!! Thank Neoliberal 🤡 for catastrophic failure of humanity end world !!!!
Allowing the US to enter and takeover the Southern flank of Russia, while attacking Russia in Ukraine, was a huge fuck up. Russia should have never, ever, ever allowed the last Azeri-Armenian War to happen. Russia has to be more vigilant regarding the US/NATO plans to encircle it with enemies to it and/or to its allies like Iran and China. No more Mr. Nice Guy. Don't allow that shit to happen again, and look for ways to revert the damage done.
Looking at the 22 last years of russian history, one can itself if everybody smoke pot and kool-aid in the secret services and diplomacy on this country?
They saw nothing coming in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. They were unable to protect from assassination Givi, Motorola , the president of Donetz Republic and others officials of Donbass. They saw nothing coming in Georgia, in Azerbaijan, in Armenia, they let Kazakhstan, Ouzbékistan, Bielarus shake their booty in front Oncle Sam. They let their friend Imran Khan in Pakistan, ousted by a coup without doing anything, even when Khan's supporters where killed by army in the streets. They saw nothing coming in Syria, in Venezuela.
Is there here a bunch of broken arms.
So what does Russia propose to do about it?
At this point, after all that's happened along Russia's southern periphery since TRIPP's unveiling last August, I honestly don't even think that the MFA has a real plan in mind.
They seem to have, once again, been caught completely flat-footed. Without radical reforms, and I'm not getting my hopes up, I'm worried that Russian diplomacy will continue falling further and further behind till there's another full-blown crisis.
Here's a relevant post that I made elsewhere on social media in response to an online friend sharing some mild critiques of the MFA. For background, they're a former diplomat but now do something else, it's unclear:
I wholeheartedly agree with your critiques of the MFA.
I’m a proud “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” (NRPR) who’s lived here for 12.5 years, received my MA in IR and PhD in Poli-Sci at MGIMO, and worked at Sputnik for half a decade (2014-2019) before freelancing as a strategic consultant.
With all due respect to Russian diplomats, in my honest opinion, the MFA is struggling to adapt to what some have called this “Age of Complexity”.
There are several problems that I’ll briefly list:
* broken feedback loops lead to echo chambers and groupthink, thus perpetuating wishful thinking and leading to Russia overestimating its successes, capabilities, partnerships, etc. while underestimating its adversaries’
* the already broken feedback loops are also tainted by literal propaganda entering what should have remained closed loops through the MFA’s partnerships with top NRPR influencers who always without exception push the totally discredited “5D chess master plan” narrative that Russia is “always winning” and even indisputable setbacks are “part of the plan” so no policy changes of any sort are required
* the LavZakh style of public messaging — my portmanteau of Lavrov and Zakharova — might go viral on social media but, especially in Zakharova’s case with all due respect to her, comes off at times as clownish to foreign observers and is also sometimes bereft of any actual policy substance (mostly just being wishful thinking and tough-sounding rhetoric that’s only rarely followed up by action)
* likewise, it also looks very bad to foreign eyes for the MFA — including Lavrov and Zakharova — to publicly associate with (as in meet and give interviews to) NRPRs who are genuinely anti-Semitic (they don’t just criticize Israel but regularly disparage Jews, Judaism, and the Torah [I’m not Jewish and I have no problem with anyone who criticizes Israel]) and in two cases are a “former” MI6 operative and CIA analyst (there’s also a guy who boasts on video about his ties to Asian and Western agencies who’s met with Lavrov several times and even once had a private dinner with Zakharova and a few others)
In my assessment, one of the greatest foreign policy setbacks for Russia in decades was Armenia and Azerbaijan replacing Russia’s mediation with the US’ and agreeing to TRIPP, which opens Central Asia to the US and NATO and therefore puts newfound multifaceted (and perhaps one day, God forbid, Ukrainian-like) pressure upon Russia along its entire southern periphery.
There has been no public accounting of this enormous grand strategic setback, nobody has taken responsibility, and instead it’s practically taboo to talk about, with there being no indication that the MFA saw this coming or has yet to formulate a response over half a year later.
All of this seems to have emboldened Kazakhstan to declare its plans last December to begin producing NATO-standard shells, something that would have been absolutely unthinkable four years ago but was announced and will now be implemented with barely a shrug from the MFA (and who knows what’ll come next God forbid).
Fresh and creative thinking is urgently required to surmount these new challenges along Russia’s entire southern periphery among others, and attitudes must shift from instinctively disregarding all signs of impending setbacks till it’s too late like has been the case up till now to taking them seriously and behaving proactively to preempt foreign policy setbacks, but the “strategic culture” there is rigidly against this from what I can tell from my MGIMO and other experiences alongside my very close years-long observations of the MFA.
I’m extremely concerned about Russia’s future, and I say this with all honesty as someone with full stakes in this country’s success (my wife and two kids are Russian citizens, I own my apartment, and my life’s savings is in rubles).
I have no idea how Russia is going to manage these very serious challenges if far-reaching aren’t urgently implemented at the MFA from the top down, hopefully as soon as possible or at least right after the SMO ends.
I believe in the value of constructive critiques, which is pretty much anathema to the MFA, and accordingly see so many lost opportunities and setbacks in Russian foreign policy from the start of the SMO to today that are all mostly overshadowed by over-the-top rhetoric from LavZakh about BRICS and multipolarity.
It genuinely seems to me like there’s no real sense of direction, that the increasingly cascading foreign policy setbacks caught the MFA completely flat-footed, and that the next 5-10 years at least might therefore be very difficult for Russia, God forbid.
Anyone who raises awareness of latent threats is shunned by the MFA. They don't want to hear about any of this. From their perspective, everything is more or less fine, and bringing up latent threats implies -- whether intentionally or not -- that they didn't properly do their jobs to preemptively avert them.
Calm, sober analyses of whatever the situation might be are rejected in favor of over-the-top rhetoric lambasting Russia's adversaries and proclaiming the inevitability of Russia's supreme victory over them. It sounds childish to folks like us, but this is how they behave. Just listen to Lavrov or Zakharova.
The worst thing to happen to the MFA was the inclusion of literal propaganda into what should have remained their closed (albeit already arguably broken) feedback loops. From 2023 onward, they started bringing in a bunch of top "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" (NRPR) influencers to Russia for official events.
This was the first time that these figures (propagandists in my opinion since they're not actual analysts but let's stick with calling them "influencers" to be "nice") were allowed to share their views (simply a reflection of the MFA's in every case) with policymakers, experts, and even domestic media at scale.
Prior to this point, Russia kept its policymakers and experts away from its "influencers" in order to avoid the latter contaminating their precious feedback loops by lending false credence as "independent analysts/experts/journalists" (how they're misleadingly presented) to wishful thinking fantasies.
From 2023 onward, however, some were shadowing Valdai, others appearing at SPIEF, still more attending major events like early 2024's inaugural Multipolarity Forum, all the while contaminating Russia's policymaking feedback loops, which couldn't have happened without someone up top allowing it.
These shadowy forces up above, whoever they are and whatever institution they work for, made the decision to have this happen in order to convince policymakers and experts NOT to reform their policies and instead "stick with the plan" DESPITE the clear setbacks that were beginning to pile up.
It gets even more scandalous when you realize that some of these "influencers" are literal spooks, well technically "former" spooks, or still actively in touch with foreign intelligence agencies like one of them occasionally boasts about, yet these shady folks are given almost full access to anyone they want to meet here.
In fact, one of them had a major press tour interviewing something like two dozen leading Russians across a range of institutions, all organized by publicly financed media and a certain organization here. Nobody anywhere in the feedback loop thought to second-guess the wisdom of this.
Instead, it's full speed ahead, doubling down on having these "influencers" contaminate the precious feedback loops (albeit already arguably broken) of what are supposed to be the country's brightest minds. Watching this unfold, I knew for sure that everything would begin spiraling.
No other major country does this, in fact, it's unthinkable. It's incredibly disappointing to watch it unfold here in Russia, where "influencers" are rebranded as "experts" and then allowed to push talking points to actual experts for pressuring them to "stick with the plan" (that obviously requires reform!).
This is a perfect case in point of how surreal everything has gotten. So Pepe boasted the other day about one of his friends in an unnamed European intelligence service at 31:32 of this video:
https://youtu.be/i8o3hDyh0hs?t=1892
Think about it: he meets with Lavrov yearly as part of the "International Russophile Movement", once had a private dinner with Zakharova and few others during SPIEF, and has access to every expert in the country.
He's even interviewed Glazyev, Russia's most brilliant official when it comes to Eurasian integration, all while having friends in unnamed European intelligence services, it turns out.
Don't forget that he infamously boasted about contacts in "two separate intelligence services from two separate Asian nations" back during his big hoax in early 2024 about Russia shooting down a nuclear-armed Israeli F-35 over Jordan to save Iran.
So we have someone who's in touch with at least THREE separate intelligence services on TWO separate continents enjoying unrestricted access to whoever the heck he wants in this country.
Imagine if something like this happened in the US: one of Rubio's friends with whom he meets yearly and who's privately dined with his spokesperson, who has access to a bunch of officials on Capitol Hill, the White House, and top US research institutions, casually boasts about his Russian, Chinese, and/or Iranian intelligence friends.
There'd be a global scandal, a MAJOR investigation, possible resignations, and the person at the center of the scandal would surely be aggressively interrogated the next time they came to the US. There might even be an extradition request made if they're in a US-friendly country that might detain them as a favor.
But in Russia? Nah, nope, nothing to see here, no scandal at all, nobody has even the slightest concern that maybe just maybe the guy who's cavorting with multiple intelligence organizations (at least one from officially designated unfriendly countries -- keep in mind that he has a residence in France and is regularly in Italy so maybe one of those two) is being "debriefed" by them every time he leaves Russia and might even be tasked with maliciously influencing them and gathering "socio-political intel".
You'd think that this would be a concern, that they'd want to protect their Foreign Minister and other officials from foreigners who openly boast about their ties to foreign -- including officially designated unfriendly -- intel services, but nope, they don't, and that's a real "black pill" if there ever was one for Russia. If you extrapolate from this and what it all means, not even counting other similar examples, it'll take you to a very dark place.
P.E. live in France???
Si funny.
Nobody here or read this jester no more in our country.
Even in AMC.
If he was really pro-Russian, his live in France and UE would be a pure Hell.
A man, a foreigner , who meet periodically russian officials at the highest level , and sing the glory of Russia every day, would be harshly persecuted.
If he live quietly here, he must have very serious protections.
Yes, he regularly does podcasts from his apartment in Paris and doesn't hide it. I also completely agree that his lack of problems with European officialdom in spite of him publicly meeting with top Russian officials, from Lavrov to Zakharova and Glazyev on down to bunch of others, is very suspicious and hints at something very devious behind the scenes.
Thanks Andrew for your most enlightening comment!
Seems to me that no one wants to engage in sincere diplomacy with Russia
The structural problems that I very briefly touched upon above might have remained manageable had Trump not pulled out all the stops and returned to the "might is right" model of International Relations.
The Russian MFA based everything on the assumption that he'd remain restrained by the so-called "rules-based order", thus giving Russia the leeway and breathing space it needs during this sensitive moment.
Instead, as some foresaw (but the MFA typically ignored the warnings), he's "escalated to de-escalate" (I produced a bunch of analyses predicting and covering this from November 2024 onwards).
He went so far and abandoned all diplomatic conventions that Russia is now like a deer in headlights with absolutely no idea what to do next or what will come next. In my opinion, it's now purely improvising.
Trump, Colby, Rubio, and Bessent all believe -- whether one agrees with them or not -- that Russia is weak, spiraling (nowhere near as extremely as its media enemies misportray it as though) and can thus be exploited.
They're sharks, there's blood in the water, and they're circling to get their chunk of flesh. They see no reason to give Russia much of what it demands and instead are only offering scraps as part of a lopsided deal.
Had Russia compromised last spring, it would have probably gotten many more preferential deals, but now the diplomatic and other initiatives apart from the military one are the US', no longer Russia's.
On the military topic, it's of course good that Russia continues to gain ground, but the MFA presumably advised Putin not to compromise up until this point due to three assumptions that have yet to come to pass.
These are: 1) Trump quickly abandoning Ukraine; 2) Europe pulling out of the fight after a wave of conservative revolutions; and 3) the front lines collapsing. I increasingly doubt that any of this will happen.
That's why we're now seeing more foreign policy setbacks for Russia as the US more aggressively exploits what Trump 2.0 genuinely (whether rightly or wrongly) perceives to be its weaknesses.
I also suspect that Rubio and Colby at least figured out what I have about the MFA's broken feedback loops and know how to masterfully exploit them to the hilt with or without their "agents of influence" here.
Russian bureaucracy is infamously "stubborn" and averse to change of any sort, which is why the MFA still rejects any constructive critiques and only surrounds itself with foreign "advisors" who tell it what it wants to hear.
For instance, I met with a very well-connected friend a year ago (almost exactly!) with whom I'd lost touch over the past decade or so, and we discussed Trump, peace talks, etc. for something like 5-6 hours.
It was very enlightening and I enjoyed it, the friend is very nice and intelligence person, but they also in retrospect seemed to be reflecting the official MFA view of everything.
I did my utmost to argue the case for mild compromises in exchange for strategic cooperation with the US on resources (oil, gas, minerals) and essentially jointly shaping the world order.
Those who've read my work for a while, especially back then, know what my vision was since I don't hide it. For those who haven't, then this piece summarizes what I had in mind:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/creative-energy-diplomacy-can-lay
My friend respected my views and understood that I'm just trying to help Russia, but they insisted that Russia would never entertain such possibilities, instead arguing that time was indeed on Russia's side.
Trump would drop Ukraine in the next month at most, they claimed, since he's just a business who doesn't care about geopolitics. They compared him to a corrupt Russian oligarch too.
I counterargued that he's surrounded by very serious people this time around who have very detailed plans and are ready to unleash the US' full might in every way imaginable but my friend didn't believe me.
They intimated that Russia could just "buy Trump out" by dangling some symbolic deals, letting time run its course to break the front lines, and everything would end in the best way possible.
Remember, this isn't a run-of-the-mill NRPR propagandist but a very serious person who's extremely well-connected with the government, think tanks, business, etc.
I explained how Trump won't follow Biden's Afghan footsteps in Ukraine and go down in history for overseeing what would then be the US' most epic strategic loss by surrendering Ukraine to Russia.
My friend disagreed, claiming that all of Russia's goals will indeed be achieved in full, every single maximalist one too, and the world order will then be shaped more by Russia than anyone else.
I gradually realized that they weren't just exchanging views with me, but perhaps maybe wanted me to reflect their views in my work, and that might explain the time that they graciously invested in me.
Nevertheless, as everyone here should know by now, I'm my own man with my own ideas and I won't reflect anyone else's if I don't sincerely share their views, and I strongly disagreed with my friend.
It was after our conversation, recalling how well-connected they are and how they basically share the MFA's unofficial views, that I got a very bad feeling and started to fret about Russia's future.
I then saw so many opportunities wasted, as I sincerely consider the course of events to be, while pressure on Russia intensified and the world order fell apart to Russia's detriment.
I love this country and have invested in its future as I explained in a prior post above, which is why all of this worries me so much, unlike other NRPRs with absolutely zero stakes in Russia's future.
Of course, the MFA being the MFA, they don't see things that way; to them, foreign bullhorns of literal Russian propaganda are Russia's best friends ever, not those who warn it about impending problems.
Nobody has to.
Touche FF, pay that one.
No shit
Sincere diplomacy? It's a oxymoron.
Is this a decline in results from the RF Diplomatic Corp or a disguised desire to be achieved for undisclosed parties benefit.
Such seemingly inept results continuing to repeat again and again seems highly improbable without some hidden agenda as the SMO is playing out up till now has also appeared to be.
Nothing is as it appears to be I believe.
Great insight, thanks!
Russia went into Syria and opened up a can of whoop-ass, it's not their fault they couldn't get their shit together so are they supposed to fight all the evil in the world? People want to 2nd guess Pres Putin who else can walk the line between Armageddon and freedom on Earth?
Andrew, I you are right, we live the most dangerous moment of humanity.
Because if Russia leaders are blind vainglorious, we can say exactly the same of USA. The only difference is that at the table of poker, Russia had a three of king and USA has four aces.
But both are blinded by self-satisfaction for the first and insane hubris for the seconds.
And History learned me that the worst cataclysmic wars never comme by the will of belligérants but by a poor assessment of the situation.
And with two ennemies which are way off, and both sitting on a huge pile of weapons, it's heavily dangerous.
What you say about Russians officials explain perhaps the cautious behaviour of Chineses and Indians
One can hope!
Russia;s alley is IRAN. Between Russia & Iran are 3 small countries, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan. They can be crushed in a short period of time. If the USA is depending on such small allies no wonder the USA is not making any gains against Russia. Russia before long will take ALL of U kraine. . Together they will be the biggest,nuclear power country along with the USA but will have the biddest reseaves of oil, gas, minerals and " Black Earth " soils .
They are never been alley Iran end ander 3 small country. Problem Russia is Putler end oligarch in Kremlin end FSB . Russia loos evry single they on geopolitical issues . That’s is problem of this country end world wen niuwe people rise on tunnel in Russia then start WWW 3 . Be ready for this end after this world newer been same again !!! Thank Neoliberal 🤡 for catastrophic failure of humanity end world !!!!