The US is replicating its anti-Russian regional containment model against China.
Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby gave a landmark speech in Manilla during the first leg of his Southeast Asian tour in early August that amounted to the US introducing the NATO 3.0 concept to the region. As Trump 2.0’s military-strategic mastermind explained it, the US is offloading more of the responsibility for maintaining regional status quos onto its allies and partners that share the same interest, which in this context is “an Asia free from hegemony”. The unstated purpose is to contain China.
He cited the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s speech at late May’s Shangri La Dialogue to justify Trump 2.0’s policy of “maintaining a posture of deterrence by denial along the first island chain” from Japan to Borneo. The Philippines sits in the middle and is therefore irreplaceable to building what’s been described elsewhere as AUKUS+. Readers can learn more about this concept and its US-backed Japanese-Philippine(-Indonesian?) core here.
In his words, “we are actively building a strong denial defense to back up a peace through strength approach of a lastingly favorable balance of power in Asia. We are systematically strengthening our forward posture, hardening our footprint, and driving deep interoperability with key countries that are willing to shoulder their share of the burden. This is not merely about performing in symbolic exercises for the cameras; it is about fielding combat-credible forces capable of defeating real military aggression.”
This leaves no doubt about the US’ intent to contain China by “Leading From Behind” in the Asia-Pacific upon the region’s implementation of the NATO 3.0 concept through the accelerated construction of the AUKUS+ network. Of importance, Colby pointed out that the Philippines is “a model ally”, which is what Hegseth described Poland as while there during the first leg of his European tour in early 2025. It can therefore be assumed that the US envisages it playing a similar role in the region.
Accordingly, observers should expect that the Philippines will become the US’ regional military bastion primed to play the leading role in containing China by dint of its geostrategic location just like Poland vis-à-vis Russia as recently confirmed by President Karol Nawrocki, all in close coordination with the US. Of course, the Philippines can’t do this on its own just like Poland can’t either, but their respective roles in containing the US’ regional adversaries are mostly as logistical bases and launchpads for US forces.
In practice, the end goal is for them to host enough supplies, US forces, and missiles to correspondingly deter China from making a military move on Taiwan and Russia from doing the same on Ukraine after the ongoing hostilities finally end, otherwise the Philippines and Poland will intervene then the US will follow. Japan is being primed for the same role as the Philippines but might not involve itself in hostilities at first for escalation-control reasons and to avoid a global economic shock if China directly retaliates.
Its economy is much more important to the world’s than Poland’s, let alone the Philippines, but all three are the US’ mutual defense allies so any direct retaliation by China or Russia instead of only attacking their forces in Taiwan and Ukraine respectively in each scenario would prompt an American response. As can be discerned from Colby’s speech, the US is replicating its anti-Russian regional containment model against China, which has enormous implications for global stability and raises the risk of World War III.
I live in Russia too! I accept that Japan - one of, if not, the most non-sovereign nation on the planet... will inevitably try and show its muscle - of course whilst hiding behind the US, of course it will. But what can Japan really do? It's in total disarray internally.
The over the top response to Putin visiting the Irutup yesterday is laughable. Russia has no beef with Japan. It is Japan that thinks it has beef with Russia. So what is it going to do, try to take back the Kuril Islands? Come on! )))
As the US is further strained to keep even some of its hegemony, and is being strangled by China on rare earths supply and processing, the US will have to step back and smell the roses. This cannot continue down this path for much longer. It has no weapons and cannot even maintain 2 theatres - the Ukraine and Middle East, yet alone the Pacific as well.
When a super power has to resort to straight out lying to its own people, it is only a matter of time before the whole thing collapses and the world will see the US for what it is. The US will see the US for what it is. There will be a huge shift from US dominance to US acceptance.
Ultimately, I would put my money on Russia and China any day. They have the resources and THAT is key. The US will attempt to drag Kazakhstan and others to its side, but relying on others to prop up your power is NOT a good state of affairs, IMO )
Balikatan exercises seem to be a regular training grounds for this sort of thing