I like your work- don't get me wrong..but as someone involved in policy too for a long time, and in touch with the public mood, I know that bullying India is a bad idea.
The US tried it in 1971 and also in 1999 openly. Failed both times.
I am a historian too and can tell you that Indian strength lies in its autarky and ability to be resilient - like Russia
I agree with you, it's not productive for the US to behave this way, and I also don't expect India to capitulate, all that I'm saying -- and it's only a minor, passing observation -- is that the possibility still exists.
For decades, successive Indian governments have evaded and dribbled successive American administrations.
The present Indian government is even more well-equipped to accomplish this, although it may not be to the satisfaction of the Don's administration or the Don himself.
"..The first troubling sign came after Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, which was followed by him threatening to rescind or modify India’s sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port...", and
".. Regardless of however one might feel about these policies, they’re India’s sovereign right to practice, and neither of them objectively goes against the US’ interests..."
The unbridled hubris that dictates US foreign policy is totally unacceptable. Who does Trump think he is when he insists on meddling in the sovereign policies of mature independent nations who genuinely try to co-operate with others seeking a free and prosperous future. US foreign policy is uni-directional : always disrespectfully seeking subservience and domination rather than international co-operation of equal and mutually beneficial terms.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. People had such high hopes for his first maladminstration, when he governed like a meaner and more dysfunctional version Dubya's second term.
Trump's second term will be a more reckless version of Biden.
It seems Exceptionalism is breaking out of Trump, just like it broke out of every modern American president, even Obama. Fact is that Obama was an exceptionally dark man for president. The rule is that any country with substantial GNP and population has to be Subordinated. After Russia, India and China I am concerned about a coming Coalition of Insubordinable Nations. The type of pressure where the US is questioning the sovereignty of nations with nuclear capabilities is a dangerous poker game. Somebody, one day, just might call America’s hand.
Relatively speaking, the US prefers to force allies and neutrals to position themselves clearly and publicly to be the vassals of the US. Russia's diplomacy welcomes that kind of support (say, from Belarus and NK), but Russia has a high tolerance for countries to remain ambivalent until the last moment (such as India or China). Russia should increase its purchase of India's consumer goods a little bit. As for S-400 sales, it is better kept at the lowest possible level without straining diplomatic relationships. As "LJones" said: the influence from the UK is still a bit too strong.
Not anymore. India is very conscious of the way it's elites have compromised in the past. Go to X and see how most Indians consider themselves Bharat now
What " course correction"? India is a proud and independent country. If the foolish DT administration doesn't read it's history it can blame itself. There will be counter- sanctions on US giants. Btw, we don't depend at all on the US for arms. The jet engine deal is a dud and the US can only shoot itself silly if it behaves atrocious as it has been doing.
No government will dare to be seen as slavishly kow towing to a bully
"What course correction?": I don't know, whatever India might do if it decides to capitulate to pressure, which I'm very clearly not implying that it would do but am also not ruling out either since it remains a possibility (however faint).
As an analyst whose work is read by diplomats, both Russian and foreign, along with a wide range of foreign experts and of course average folks alike, I couldn't in good professional conscience dismiss a realistic (albeit in my opinion unlikely) possibility from my work.
Maybe you're used to reading journalists, pundits, activists, propagandists, etc., but my work is mostly analysis, so it should be assessed differently than the information products that you're seemingly accustomed to.
Since the first two were originally published at a now-defunct site, I can't pin them here on my page otherwise I would to prevent misunderstandings like this one.
"No government will dare to be seen as slavishly kow towing to a bully"
Let me tell you about a place called "europe" where not only do the local rulers kow tow slavishly, they compete as to who is the most servile and abject.
Hell, the United States in 2023 committed an Act Of War against germany and the german reaction was something to the effect that bad slaves deserve their beatings.
Not only does the United States like it this way, they demand it. Aside from Israel, there are only catamites and enemies.
I think too much is made of India's potential for "great power" status. I suspect they have already peaked, or will shortly. There are deep structural and resource problems that are intractable in my opinion. Not to mention corruption, cultural problems and brain drain.
That said, they are a counter-weight to China and retarding that would be a bad thing.
The bigger problem that I can foresee is that China would use Pakistan to hold down India in any SE Asian conflict. It is possible that some of these US efforts are aimed at eventually reducing that potential by getting Pakistan onboard...
Does anyone else ever wonder how someone as transparently stupid as Howard NutLick could have possibly gotten so insanely wealthy? Nepotism and ass kissing? Bc he is the single dumbest person to serve in an American administration as a cabinet secretary in my lifetime and that's really saying something.
I like your work- don't get me wrong..but as someone involved in policy too for a long time, and in touch with the public mood, I know that bullying India is a bad idea.
The US tried it in 1971 and also in 1999 openly. Failed both times.
I am a historian too and can tell you that Indian strength lies in its autarky and ability to be resilient - like Russia
I agree with you, it's not productive for the US to behave this way, and I also don't expect India to capitulate, all that I'm saying -- and it's only a minor, passing observation -- is that the possibility still exists.
It being a bad idea is literally the theme of the article.
As usual, you are thoughtful and discerning.
For decades, successive Indian governments have evaded and dribbled successive American administrations.
The present Indian government is even more well-equipped to accomplish this, although it may not be to the satisfaction of the Don's administration or the Don himself.
"..The first troubling sign came after Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, which was followed by him threatening to rescind or modify India’s sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port...", and
".. Regardless of however one might feel about these policies, they’re India’s sovereign right to practice, and neither of them objectively goes against the US’ interests..."
The unbridled hubris that dictates US foreign policy is totally unacceptable. Who does Trump think he is when he insists on meddling in the sovereign policies of mature independent nations who genuinely try to co-operate with others seeking a free and prosperous future. US foreign policy is uni-directional : always disrespectfully seeking subservience and domination rather than international co-operation of equal and mutually beneficial terms.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. People had such high hopes for his first maladminstration, when he governed like a meaner and more dysfunctional version Dubya's second term.
Trump's second term will be a more reckless version of Biden.
Minus the 10m plus unvetted migrants from the 3rd world of course.
It seems Exceptionalism is breaking out of Trump, just like it broke out of every modern American president, even Obama. Fact is that Obama was an exceptionally dark man for president. The rule is that any country with substantial GNP and population has to be Subordinated. After Russia, India and China I am concerned about a coming Coalition of Insubordinable Nations. The type of pressure where the US is questioning the sovereignty of nations with nuclear capabilities is a dangerous poker game. Somebody, one day, just might call America’s hand.
Relatively speaking, the US prefers to force allies and neutrals to position themselves clearly and publicly to be the vassals of the US. Russia's diplomacy welcomes that kind of support (say, from Belarus and NK), but Russia has a high tolerance for countries to remain ambivalent until the last moment (such as India or China). Russia should increase its purchase of India's consumer goods a little bit. As for S-400 sales, it is better kept at the lowest possible level without straining diplomatic relationships. As "LJones" said: the influence from the UK is still a bit too strong.
I'd take great care with India. Still way too much british influence for my taste.
Not anymore. India is very conscious of the way it's elites have compromised in the past. Go to X and see how most Indians consider themselves Bharat now
What " course correction"? India is a proud and independent country. If the foolish DT administration doesn't read it's history it can blame itself. There will be counter- sanctions on US giants. Btw, we don't depend at all on the US for arms. The jet engine deal is a dud and the US can only shoot itself silly if it behaves atrocious as it has been doing.
No government will dare to be seen as slavishly kow towing to a bully
"What course correction?": I don't know, whatever India might do if it decides to capitulate to pressure, which I'm very clearly not implying that it would do but am also not ruling out either since it remains a possibility (however faint).
As an analyst whose work is read by diplomats, both Russian and foreign, along with a wide range of foreign experts and of course average folks alike, I couldn't in good professional conscience dismiss a realistic (albeit in my opinion unlikely) possibility from my work.
Maybe you're used to reading journalists, pundits, activists, propagandists, etc., but my work is mostly analysis, so it should be assessed differently than the information products that you're seemingly accustomed to.
Here are several of my prior analyses to bring you up to speed on media literacy:
* Media Literacy, Not Intimidation & Censorship, Is The Best Way To Fight So-Called Propaganda
https://archive.is/5ATuC
* A Review Of The Most Common Roles In The Alt-Media Community
https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/a-review-of-the-most-common-roles-in-the-alt-media-community
* Pre-Bunking, Media Literacy, & Democratic Security
https://korybko.substack.com/p/pre-bunking-media-literacy-and-democratic
Since the first two were originally published at a now-defunct site, I can't pin them here on my page otherwise I would to prevent misunderstandings like this one.
"No government will dare to be seen as slavishly kow towing to a bully"
Let me tell you about a place called "europe" where not only do the local rulers kow tow slavishly, they compete as to who is the most servile and abject.
Hell, the United States in 2023 committed an Act Of War against germany and the german reaction was something to the effect that bad slaves deserve their beatings.
Not only does the United States like it this way, they demand it. Aside from Israel, there are only catamites and enemies.
I think too much is made of India's potential for "great power" status. I suspect they have already peaked, or will shortly. There are deep structural and resource problems that are intractable in my opinion. Not to mention corruption, cultural problems and brain drain.
That said, they are a counter-weight to China and retarding that would be a bad thing.
The bigger problem that I can foresee is that China would use Pakistan to hold down India in any SE Asian conflict. It is possible that some of these US efforts are aimed at eventually reducing that potential by getting Pakistan onboard...
Does anyone else ever wonder how someone as transparently stupid as Howard NutLick could have possibly gotten so insanely wealthy? Nepotism and ass kissing? Bc he is the single dumbest person to serve in an American administration as a cabinet secretary in my lifetime and that's really saying something.