The US Is Toughening Its Negotiating Stance Towards Russia
This might presage the peace process’ collapse and the resultant intensification of their proxy war.
Trump and Vance’s latest comments on their country’s talks with Russia show that the US’ negotiating stance has toughened. The first echoed Zelensky by calling for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and threatened to impose sanctions if it’s violated, which followed the second revealing that Russia’s demand for Ukraine to withdraw from the entirety of the disputed regions is “asking for too much”. Altogether, they confirm the US’ growing impatience with the peace process, which began in late March.
Back then, Trump threatened to impose strictly enforced secondary sanctions against those who purchase Russia’s oil if he determined that it’s responsible for the peace talks’ potential failure. One month later, he speculated that Putin is “just tapping me along”, during which time he reaffirmed the aforesaid sanctions threat. Shortly after, the US and Ukraine signed their long-awaited minerals deal, which this analysis here correctly predicted would be followed by more American weapons packages.
Although it was planned far in advance of the abovementioned developments, Putin’s latest meeting with Xi in Moscow arguably took the form of Russia’s response seeing as how he and his Chinese counterpart spent a whopping seven hours together in talks. It was foreseen right before their meeting that “Putin & Xi Might Hash Out A Grand Deal That Would Enter Into Force If The Ukraine Talks Collapse”, which appears to have been exactly what happened and could have provoked Trump’s latest post.
The US already knows that Russia is against an unconditional 30-day ceasefire because it rightly fears, per the precedent of prior ceasefires during the Minsk Accords era, that this would be exploited to give Ukraine time to rotate its troops and rearm ahead of reinitiating hostilities. It’s also important for Russia to obtain full control over the entirety of the disputed regions as part of a peace deal in order to fully incorporate and denazify those territories that it now legally considers to be its own.
Vance’s comments make it clear that the US considers this to be “asking too much” and therefore won’t coerce Ukraine into withdrawing from them, thus suggesting that Trump’s subsequent call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire is meant to indefinitely freeze the Line of Contact against Russia’s wishes. Threatening strictly enforced secondary sanctions for lack of compliance, presumably against those who purchase Russia’s oil, is meant to simultaneously pressure Putin and his country’s top oil clients.
In connection with that, Trump’s disclosure that he discussed joint efforts to end the Ukrainian Conflict in his latest call with Erdogan and his recent remark about how “I think it’s a natural thing to ask” China to assist with this suggests that he envisages Erdogan and Xi pressuring Putin. They’d be incentivized to do so for fear of the US enforcing Trump’s threatened secondary sanctions against their countries if they refuse or fail after trying. Modi could be roped into this too since India is another top Russian oil client.
Unless there’s a breakthrough, such as Russia steamrolling across the Line of Contact or conceding to freeze it in exchange for something significant from the US (which the public might not be privy to), this sequence of events suggests that the peace process might soon collapse. The US is preparing for that scenario by signaling why it might happen from its perspective and hinting at what it’ll do in that case (i.e. more anti-Russian sanctions and arms for Ukraine) so its proxy war with Russia might soon escalate.
There are two very different views crashing here. The Trump Administration is looking at cost benefit ratios and is maneuvering toward a hegemonic geopolitical position. The problem is that the conditions for a type of hegemonic position the US enjoyed after WWII are simply not there anymore. The US does not have a globally dominant economy, financially is burdened with a giant debt, and is challenged with capable military technologies and even Hollywood lost some of its earlier popularity. Around half the US population would be unwilling to fight a lasting conflict if it comes down to it.
At the same time the situation for Russia is for more close up and personal. Ukraine is attempting to become a huge security risk permanently with NATO assistance. The war is very expensive with large numbers of casualties and complex cultural issues at the same time. Russia is fighting against traditionally Russian cities and population groups as well. The US is trying to force the negotiations to formulate a policy that supports the aims described above and it is most likely that the Russian Federation will keep up the struggle. North Korea, China and Iran already learned their lessons and they understand if Russia goes down it is their turn after. Therefore, they will keep standing by Russia with military and economic support. If the Chinese economy is pushed too far they just might come to the conclusion that it is time to repeat North Korea 1950s style, send in a million men army and take over Ukraine in a matter of weeks regardless of the losses and consequences. As the present balance of power stands a united Russian, Chinese, North Korean and Iranian effort can take over the full of Ukraine so fast that NATO will simply not have enough time to mobilize large enough forces to oppose them effectively. This move would cause an instant tectonic move and change the geopolitical balance of the planet. As far as a possible nuclear war is concerned, it would be against the best interest of all participants but it does not necessarily mean it is not going to happen.
Thank you for the enlightening article. Apparently, unless this is political theater, president Trump, the self-proclaimed pacifist and dealmaker who is always so sad about the many young soldiers dying in the war in Ukraine, is going to double down on that same war. Now that the loot is in (the minerals deal)... It's hard to believe that he might be so cynical. If he turns out to be, it would be a rude awakening and a bitter disappointment for many people.