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Kennewick Man's avatar

There are two very different views crashing here. The Trump Administration is looking at cost benefit ratios and is maneuvering toward a hegemonic geopolitical position. The problem is that the conditions for a type of hegemonic position the US enjoyed after WWII are simply not there anymore. The US does not have a globally dominant economy, financially is burdened with a giant debt, and is challenged with capable military technologies and even Hollywood lost some of its earlier popularity. Around half the US population would be unwilling to fight a lasting conflict if it comes down to it.

At the same time the situation for Russia is for more close up and personal. Ukraine is attempting to become a huge security risk permanently with NATO assistance. The war is very expensive with large numbers of casualties and complex cultural issues at the same time. Russia is fighting against traditionally Russian cities and population groups as well. The US is trying to force the negotiations to formulate a policy that supports the aims described above and it is most likely that the Russian Federation will keep up the struggle. North Korea, China and Iran already learned their lessons and they understand if Russia goes down it is their turn after. Therefore, they will keep standing by Russia with military and economic support. If the Chinese economy is pushed too far they just might come to the conclusion that it is time to repeat North Korea 1950s style, send in a million men army and take over Ukraine in a matter of weeks regardless of the losses and consequences. As the present balance of power stands a united Russian, Chinese, North Korean and Iranian effort can take over the full of Ukraine so fast that NATO will simply not have enough time to mobilize large enough forces to oppose them effectively. This move would cause an instant tectonic move and change the geopolitical balance of the planet. As far as a possible nuclear war is concerned, it would be against the best interest of all participants but it does not necessarily mean it is not going to happen.

Mr Eric Chan's avatar

Russia has alot of escatory moves left. Absolutely no need for China, Iran, N Korea military assistence. Russia can easily deal with collective NATO chichuahas. Lets see how far the fascist of the west wants to push this.

Kennewick Man's avatar

I think China, Iran and North Korea have vested geopolitical interests in making sure Russia stays on top of this situation. If Russia goes under (very unlikely) the US will start hunting those three like they were bunnies in Australia. In the early 1950s China sent in a huge army to save North Korea from the US with good reason. They did not want a hyper-aggressive US army to camp on their own border.

Herman's avatar

Thank you for the enlightening article. Apparently, unless this is political theater, president Trump, the self-proclaimed pacifist and dealmaker who is always so sad about the many young soldiers dying in the war in Ukraine, is going to double down on that same war. Now that the loot is in (the minerals deal)... It's hard to believe that he might be so cynical. If he turns out to be, it would be a rude awakening and a bitter disappointment for many people.

James Schwartz's avatar

If China puts boots on the ground that starts WWIII. The North Koreans supposedly have boots on the ground but I’m not sure that’s been verified by independent news outlets but China boots? That’s a bridge too far for NATO and probably the US too. Russia on its own could blitzkreig Ukraine and I’m not sure why they haven’t yet but they could use tech from Iran and China. Boots on the ground is a situation that would be condemned world wide.

Norma Brown's avatar

All of western Europe is already deeply IN on this war and the slaughter it entails, Russia will invite whomever it likes to support it. And if that means WWIII and nuclear war, well, hey, isn't that better than not letting America rule the world?

John Acord's avatar

The only practical solution is to eliminate the borderlands entirely by simply returning to the pre-1939 borders and partitioning the borderlands between Poland, Hungary, and Romania. This would eliminate the metastasizing cancer, allow Europe to return to peace and prosperity, and spare the world WW3. As for the neocons, please send them to clean up the mine fields they are responsible for planting.

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May 10, 2025
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John Acord's avatar

Prior to WWI, much of Western Ukraine was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In 1939, Stalin invaded Poland and annexed its western territories, which are now part of Ukraine. After the Second World War, Stalin also seized much of Romania. Transcarpathia was also seized from Hungary, and Slovakia may also have some claims. Regardless, the "borderlands" are a cancer that needs to be removed for all or our sakes, and especially for the millions of people that have endured the tyranny of the Bandera Nazis

Norma Brown's avatar

then Russia will have to escalate as well. The US isn't going to come out of this a winner but it appears Trump isn't smart enough to get out while he can. He still suffers the illusion that the US rules the world.

jana petkovska's avatar

Unbelievable. The latest Trump's sharp turn toward the almost same rhetoric of his predecesors suggests that he genuinely meant "to make America great again". Just as it was for years with american tentacles spread all around the World. But it will not work. All empires have their expiring date. The last was ancient Rome. It didn't collapse becouse of loosing it's imperial power, or threats from outside. It collapsed from inside, as a result, first, of it's moral and spritual degradation. And second, when you, conquer and kill to the point when the Karmic law of the Univers must turn on against you. American collective Karmic debt is huge. Trump should stop piling more karma on his country by sending more soldiers and arms to Ukraine. Is he so stupid, or is he so clever, or is he hiding something else in his scenario. Whatever he plans, this war will not happen. There are higher invisible forces, above him, who are playing out their scenario of PEACE ON EARTH just now. America can never be great again, but it will survive in another format.

Feral Finster's avatar

I was predicting this from the outset. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.

David Stewart's avatar

If Trump couldn't make his Liberation Day tariffs stick he's unlikely to have better luck enforcing secondary sanctions.

Bent Bang's avatar

Trump call him self a master of making deals But so far he has failed in almost every aspect USA NATO EUs proxy war against Russia in Ukraine have escalated So have Israel’s illegal genocide war in Gaza which Trump support 100 %. He even bomb Yemen Threats Iran and China over Taiwan Remember he said he would stop it in Ukraine and he want to be a peace president 24 hours 😂His MAGA propaganda is a relic from the 60s and don’t have a chance now. Not matter how much Trump scream threaten and decide ridiculous old fashioned sanctions the power in the world will move from West to East The BRICS alliance will soon have 50% of the world’s population as members And I contrary to USA and EU is it not a war alliance but based on cooperation trade and mutual benefit USA is only about 4% of the world’s population and the days where they can decide what the rest of the world shall do is definitely over It is obvious that Trump don’t know much about what’s going on in the world outside USA. Have he ever been in China ? If he travel around in China with it’s 1.5 billion people he will see that they are light years ahead of USA and EU. Both technologies military and infrastructure with a strong homogeneity culture. USA have an army on about 1.5 M personnel China and Russia have about 4 M personnel together and their weapon production and capacity is far from USA NATO. So start a war against China is suicide For every one warship USA produce China produces 10. China haven’t been to war since WW2 USA have been in more than 250 wars and have lost them all War are never the solution Cooperation trade peace are the solution But USA can’t accept any country are stronger than them so therefore they want us to believe that China Russia India and other BRICS countries are our enemies But it’s a lie. They don’t want war with the West Trumps trade war and tariffs are also a loser game with no winners and USA can’t beat the rest of the world USA are more depending on the world than they world are depending on USA With a debt on 37.000 trillion $+ a divided population with big domestic conflicts Trump should focus to MAGA from within and not by threat attack sanctions and make insane tariffs on the hole world

Ohio Barbarian's avatar

Russia won't accept an unconditional 30 day ceasefire, no how, no way. The Russians know Ukraine would just use it to get more weapons and pick more men up off the streets to throw into the line.

Putin just said he would renew the direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul without preconditions, but Zelensky already demanded the unconditional ceasefire come first.

Seems to me the US Empire plan is to keep the war going as long as possible, which means until the Zelensky regime collapses. Then the war will end the way it always had to end--on Russia's terms. That's OK as far as the US MIC is concerned; they'll just look to start another war somewhere else.

erik_skm's avatar

There's a lot to design, build and bill for maritime and Artic security which should occupy military industry for a long long time, even without starting a hot war anywhere.

I tend to agree that the US is purposefully leading along Ukraine (and Europeans) so that military realities can cement the compehensive economic and security arrangement in Europe that Trump and Putin are trying to negotiate. After all, the Europeans are not negotiationcapable, so a settlement had to be reached which they can't blowup and they'll just have to bear. But I don't think that means extend the war indefinitely, but only with token support for Ukraine and promises and half fulfilled promises of real support.

Ohio Barbarian's avatar

The only reason they won’t extend it indefinitely is because they know they can’t. Just like Nixon in Vietnam; he promised to bring the troops home in six weeks(I know he did because I remember seeing him say that on TV—I was 10) and it only took him almost four years.

Trump out did Tricky Dick by saying he’d end the Ukraine War in a day, that’s all.

I agree with you vis-a-vis the Europeans; they’ll go along with any agreement the US endorses.

Mr Eric Chan's avatar

News flash, the most war mongering nation in history fails to negotiate a ceasefire in a war it provoked, was the leading belligerant participant in planning, tactics, intel, financing, weapons supply etc. Who would have thought?

Robert Billyard's avatar

Trump is presiding over a bankrupt empire and refuses to face that reality. The only question now is how much more damage will he be left to do.

Nakayama's avatar

I see that American leadership elites (and those real policy makers around them) are too naive and consider things to be too easy. Trump's toughening up against Russia is likely due to being convinced that China has already kowtowed and will be successfully led to drift away from Russia, so the US can defeat each piecemeal. Indeed, China has not finished its morphing into domestic circulation, and China will never reach the kind of autarky that Russia does, even if the Thorium reactor news is 100% true. However, the anti-Xi faction in the CCP is still the CCP. They will not do anything that hurts their long-term dictatorship over China. The US tactics have now made Xi look better than he truly is. By the time the anti-Xi faction decides to stick with Russia, the US would have lost to multiple opponents piecemeal, rather than winning by divide-and-conquer. I predict that the US will achieve something Xi could only dream about (to drive Russia towards China) and the US will achieve something Putin loved to see but without a solid grasp (to drive China towards Russia whole party-wide).

Large empires cannot be buried by their competitors or successors. Large empires always bury themselves.

Velociraver's avatar

Xi and Putin just spent 7 hours signing literally dozens of agreements. There is no daylight between them for USA to exploit.

Nakayama's avatar

There were some noticeable gaps, and Putin had done proper preparation to defend against a potential Chinese surrender to the US. But the US has blown its chances due to its ignorance of international realities. Chinese people traditionally don't like Russians, even now. And Russians don't like Chinese either. The bridge between the two was the Chinese Communist Party being a USSR puppet at its beginning. But even this link was interrupted due to the Mao-Khrushchev conflict. After Russia rejected communist ideology, the link between Russia and China is purely geopolitical and economic.

The only possible way for the US/West to drive a wedge into the Russia-China relationship is to be nice to Russia so that Putin would have driven Russia into NATO or the EU rather than leaning east. Instead, the US/West wants to fragment Russia such that Russians hold their noses to align with China. They know the Chinese are not reliable, but the SMO and context gave Russians no choice. The same can be said about China. Xi is pro-Russia (strictly speaking, the USSR) due to his ideological roots. The anti-Xi faction wanted what Putin used to want: to integrate into the West. The difference is, Putin wants coexistence, CCP wants to infiltrate and subvert from within. The US actions will drive the anti-Xi faction toward Russia just the same as the US drove Putin and Russia toward China. Putin did not like China because China exploited Russia's financial difficulties before 2008 and stole Russian technology by unauthorized reverse engineering (Su-27, Kilo sub, and the Sovremenny-class destroyer, etc).

Velociraver's avatar

No 🤣 Russia and China today are not the same nations Bryzinski and Kissinger thought they could toy with and manipulate.

Nakayama's avatar

Yes today the two are familiar with the American tricks and track records. The Chanes once were there had been blown. So what I said is history at best and somewhat irrelevant by now.

User's avatar
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May 10, 2025
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Nakayama's avatar

Pardon my confusion: I am not sure I understand your semantics correctly. Did you mean that the US and Russia unite to defeat the Chinese Communists? Around 2008, I still had that hope. By now, I believe that hope was faulty, nonexistent. While China (the Chinese Communist regime) is an enemy of the American Ideal, the US today is the enemy of most of the world. Most people in the world do not understand the evil of the Chinese Communists, but they have had very personal experience with Americans looting their countries and twisting their national politics to serve deep-state and globalists (not even to serve the American people). If there is a country in the world that needs an urgent change in orientation, it is the US. By now, I see the US as being too corrupt to effectively renew itself as it has done multiple times in the past. Perhaps by 1992, it was already too late. Because I live in the US now, I am not giving up my trivial effort in helping to right the ship. I have to believe there is still a chance to right the ship.

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May 10, 2025
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Nakayama's avatar

CCP takes a much heavier toll on the Chinese people than the US plutocracy on the American population. The American Conservatives have grown to understand that the US is the evil empire and has caused wars in the world since the 1980, but mostly after 1992. However, I see most American Conservatives and Conservatives elsewhere not quite seeing the evils of the Chinese Communists.

Parti's avatar

I said it before. Russia made a mistake by fighting Ukraine with gloves. If the US escalates, it may be time to hit Ukraine real hard. Take out all energy, water, create a new wave of refugees and get rid of the government officials and SBU officers. Putin played somewhat nice because he feels sorry for Ukrainians and still sees them as brothers. Furthermore he thought at one point there will be someone rational to negotiate in Europe or the US. But nobody in the West is either rational nor smart. They are all blinded by hate and delusion. Just don't understand how Putin doesn't seem to grasp that.

Nakayama's avatar

I partially agree. Initially, playing it soft is fine. But by now, after the US signing the so-called mineral deals, there is no point in playing it soft anymore. Not only do the future punches have to be harder, the denazification afterwards has to be hard as well no matter what the Western NAZI says.

Parti's avatar

More weapons? What's there left to send? Tanks and aircraft's are useless. Send in the Taurus and Russia will retaliate against the airfields they take off from. More weapons means more dead Ukrainians. They will continue until nobody is left there it seems. Funny how delusional the US is. I mean, in the end they would set up Europe in flames and not their own homeland...

Feral Finster's avatar

Trump got played again. The "minerals deal" was an obvious trap, and Trump stumbled right into it.

Meanwhile, the idea that denazification be restricted to four oblasts is a dr facto admission thst the SMO failed in ita purposes.

Parti's avatar

Hence why nothing will be restricted to the 4 oblasts. This thing will end in Kiev.

Feral Finster's avatar

So what had Russia been waiting for all this time?

Parti's avatar

for once Putin still acknowledges that the Ukrainians are still brothers. That means he feels sorry for them. Secondly, the Russians thought the longer the war will drag on, the more likely it will be to cut a deal with the West. Everyone knows Europe is struggling the most under the sanctions. However, nobody in the West seems reasonable enough to make a deal. He'll, the EU has even doubled down on their anti Russian sentiment.

Feral Finster's avatar

Ukraine and the West sees Putin’s hesitation as contemptible weakness and act accordingly. We keep hearing that the West is collapsing, but not only do they shun any offramp, they keep doubling down as they smell blood.

Parti's avatar

You are right when the Western politicians see the Russian hesitation as a weakness. But it doesn't mean it's true. The Russians can endure a lot until they just snap.