The US Might Pursue The “Peaceful Balkanization” Of The Congo

Trump 2.0 might conclude that federalization is the only sustainable solution to the Congo’s protracted political-security crises for averting its (inevitable?) second collapse and subsequently enabling the US to manage the resultant scramble for influence and profits within its newly autonomous states.

Trump oversaw the signing of a joint peace declaration by his Congolese and Rwandan counterparts in early December, which built upon the peace deal signed by their Foreign Ministers in his Secretary of State’s presence over the summer. Less than a week later, Congolese President Felix Tshisekede accused Rwanda of violating their deal amidst the continued offensive of the Kigali-backed M23 rebels with whom Kinshasa is engaged in separate Qatari-facilitated talks that yielded a framework deal last month.

It was earlier assessed that the US’ interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) rare earth minerals (REM) would likely result in Washington enforcing all parties’ compliance with the agreement so as to facilitate US firms’ extraction of this resource from the partially M23-held eastern provinces of North and South Kivu. The newly published National Security Strategy’s (NSS) regional emphasis on energy and REM cooperation with African countries lends credence to this expectation.

Even if an American diplomatic intervention prevents the latest clashes from spiraling out of control into a full-blown crisis, the DRC’s overall political-security situation will remain tense due to M23’s support for the AFC opposition coalition’s goals. That’s the French abbreviation of the Congo River Alliance, which wants to federalize the DRC and reportedly enjoys the backing of former President Joseph Kabila, who was sentenced to death in absentia for treason and other related crimes last fall.

In the scenario of Kabila presiding over an AFC-led government in the DRC, however it might happen, the country’s devolution into a federal state could see resource-rich provinces like the Kivus and the former Katanga (now divided into several smaller provinces) hoarding most of the national wealth. If the federal states become so autonomous that they command their own security forces, then the country would risk “Balkanization”, after which a scramble for influence and profits could commence all across the DRC.

Reuters just published a report about how “M23 rebels entrench their rule in east Congo even as Trump claims peace”, thus creating a de facto autonomous state that could become the model for federalizing the country. Federalization could lead to a civil and even regional war, however, but the risk could be managed if the US proactively proposes this as a solution and then mediates deals over internal borders, wealth-sharing, and security-sharing between the states and the federal government.

Moreover, given the NSS’ emphasis on exploring profitable energy partnerships with African countries, US investment could renovate the REM-bereft western DRC’s Inga I and II dams. It could also finance the Grand Inga Dam, which would be the largest in the world with twice the power generation of China’s Three Gorges Dam, and the hydroelectricity that’s unleashed could industrialize the country and the broader region. Energy-intensive Western AI data centers could also be built in the vicinity too.

Considering that the DRC is now unofficially an American protectorate after the US-mediated peace deal with Rwanda, it’s therefore possible that Trump 2.0 might proactively propose the phased federalization of the country as a means of sustainably resolving its protracted political-security crises. This could avert its (inevitable?) second collapse with the horrifying humanitarian consequences that might follow while managing the scramble for influence and profits within this by-then “peacefully Balkanized” state.