The US’ Reportedly Planned Rapprochement With Eritrea Could Also Benefit Ethiopia

It might lead to a US-brokered Ethiopian-Eritrean peace deal that includes security guarantees, a US-controlled corridor from the Red Sea to Ethiopia via Eritrea modeled off of the one that was announced last August across southern Armenia, and maybe even a joint Ethiopian-US port in Assab.

Reuters reported earlier in the month that the US plans to lift its Biden-era sanctions on Eritrea that were imposed over its contentious role in Ethiopia’s Northern Conflict that raged from 2020-2022. Speculation has swirled about what the quid pro quo would be for initiating this rapprochement with a country whose officials are known for their fiery anti-American rhetoric and human rights abuses. Trump 2.0 is incredibly pragmatic, however, so this presumably isn’t being done with no ulterior motive in mind.

One hypothesis is that the US plans to station some of its forces in the mountainous areas of Eritrea for swift retaliation against the nearby Houthis if they blockade the Bab el Mandeb again. The thinking goes that neighboring Djibouti, where it already has a base, won’t reverse its policy of prohibiting offensive operations against that group. Meanwhile, the US might not want to recognize nearby Somaliland for this purpose to avoid angering the African Union and Arab League, both of which support Somalia.

That’s plausible, while another hypothesis that isn’t mutually exclusive with the abovementioned is that the US wants to monopolize Eritrea’s critical minerals deposits, with sanctions relief facilitating this and helping to return Eritrea to the broader international community by breaking the taboo of ties with it. Given its location, American companies could also sell some of these resources to the EU, the Gulf Kingdoms, and India, thus enabling the US to play a more strategic role in all three of their economies.

This also makes sense, but knowing how Trump 2.0 always thinks big, it’s possible that the primary motivation is to reshape regional geopolitics in the Horn. To oversimplify the situation, Ethiopia’s rival Egypt backs its nemesis Eritrea, and both support Ethiopia’s TPLF rebels that were responsible for the previously mentioned Northern Conflict (they earlier used to be the core of the former ruling coalition). Egypt, Eritrea, and the TPLF are also active in neighboring Sudan, which they’re turning against Ethiopia.

As Egypt’s strategic encirclement of Ethiopia tightens, Ethiopia continues trying to diversify from its dependence on Djibouti for sea access, which is its Achilles’ heel. Its MOU with Somaliland about this has yet to be implemented, but as tensions with Eritrea worsen, some now believe that Ethiopia plans to right the historic wrong of the TPLF giving the Port of Assab to Eritrea if it goes to war and wins. Any US-Eritrean rapprochement, however, could lead to a creative solution to this dilemma.

It’s possible that the US might replicate the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which is a 99-year-leased US-controlled corridor through southern Armenia for unlocking access to landlocked Central Asia, in Eritrea. If paired with security guarantees to both Eritrea and Ethiopia, this might suffice for replacing Egypt’s influence and fostering a lasting peace between them. Ethiopia would also finally obtain reliable access to the sea since Eritrea wouldn’t dare cut off a US-controlled corridor.

A US-brokered Ethiopian-Eritrean peace deal that includes security guarantees, a US-controlled corridor from the Red Sea to Ethiopia via Eritrea, and maybe even a joint Ethiopian-US port in Assab would radically reshape regional geopolitics. The catalyst of conflict, Eritrea’s support of anti-state (and in some cases terrorist) forces inside of Ethiopia as part of an Egyptian-backed regional power play, would be no more. The Horn’s development would then accelerate as investments follow peace and connectivity.