There Are Reasons To Be Skeptical Of Macron’s Reported Intention To Attend The BRICS Summit
He almost certainly intends to use his possible attendance at the upcoming BRICS Summit to bolster France’s reputation in Africa, which aims to restore some of its soft power there that’s been rapidly in decline over the past year as a result of Russia’s “Democratic Security” advances. France isn’t waging a proxy war against any other BRICS member, which is why none of them apparently has any problem with him showing up at that event, thus making Russia the only one that’s skeptical.
French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly asked his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa if he could attend the upcoming BRICS Summit, which prompted Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova to request formal clarification of his intentions. As she aptly phrased her country’s concerns, “we are talking about the organization to which they are in no way a member and toward which they have never even shown any politeness, let alone showing any good intentions or feelings.”
Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov was less skeptical than her and said that nobody should be pushed away, but he also advised that BRICS should “not (be) diverted by some different approaches that in essence do not coincide with the interests of the founding countries.” Interestingly, China’s Global Times published a very optimistic editorial about Macron’s possible attendance at this year’s summit, which aligns with the recent strengthening of Chinese-French ties after his trip to that country two months ago.
He immediately revived his country’s traditional rhetoric about ensuring Europe’s strategic autonomy from the US and particularly with respect to it not being forced to take Washington’s side on the Taiwan issue the moment that he departed from the People’s Republic. The Financial Times then reported earlier this month that Macron is opposed to NATO setting up a liaison office in Japan, both positions of which are pragmatic and deeply appreciated by China, thus placing Global Times’ editorial in context.
Russian geo-economic guru Yaroslav Lissovolik, who’s the visionary thinker responsible for the BRICS+ concept and associated expansion proposals, published an analysis that’s similar in spirit to Global Times’. Titled “Macron opens up the possibility of BRICS++”, he explains how France’s potential partnership with BRICS could help “promote the development of North-South cooperation”, which could in turn contribute to reforming globalization with time by making it more beneficial for everyone.
The reactions from Ushakov, Global Times, and Lissovolik to Macron’s reported interest in attending the upcoming BRICS Summit as its South African host’s guest are reasonable since it makes sense to give him a chance to show whether he’s sincere about cultivating mutually beneficial ties with this group. At the same time, however, Zakharova’s skepticism of his intentions isn’t based on speculation but political fact as she explained. This is especially so when considering the Russian-French proxy war in Africa.
The Kremlin’s newfound appeal to the continent, which is predicated on its formidable “Democratic Security” capabilities helping its partners defend themselves from (mostly Western-orchestrated) Hybrid War threats, has shattered France’s traditional “sphere of influence” there. Macron himself was forced to acknowledge this in early March when he declared that the “age of Francafrique is over”, which would have been unthinkable for any French leader to ever admit just a year ago, let alone several prior.
Nevertheless, instead of responsibly adapting to this geopolitical reality by finally abandoning its centuries-long hegemonic intentions and honestly pursuing mutually beneficial partnerships with the continent, Axios reported last October that France has a detailed plan to push Russia out of Africa. It’s mostly centered on information warfare but has since come to take on true proxy war dimensions as evidenced by the Russian-partnered Central African Republic and Malian authorities’ claims.
They allege that France is supporting armed groups that their governments regard as terrorists, which pushes them even closer to Moscow due to their new partner’s “Democratic Security” expertise in helping defend them from these threats, thus making this counterproductive from Paris’ perspective. Even so, those countries’ former colonizer shows now signs of relenting, and it’s arguably beginning to coordinate with the US in demonizing Wagner as the first step of their plot to recapture control of Africa.
It's within this geostrategic context that Zakharova expressed her skepticism of Macron’s reported request to attend the upcoming BRICS Summit, which she’d have been much more aware of than Ushakov, Global Times, or Lissovolik due to her role in the Russia Foreign Ministry. While the first of those three is one of President Putin’s foreign policy advisors, he might not be as up to speed as she is when it comes to the Russian-French proxy war in Africa, thus explaining his different stance.
The fierce competition between those two countries on that continent does indeed lend credence to her skepticism since it’s difficult to imagine France not exploiting its potential involvement in BRICS to expand their rivalry in Africa to the economic sphere. In fact, that might be precisely what Paris hopes to do, namely take advantage of African countries’ goodwill towards BRICS to partially reinvent its post-“Francafrique” reputation via a partnership with that group in order to gain an edge against Russia there.
While Macron’s recent revival of France’s traditional rhetoric about Europe’s strategic autonomy was appreciated by China just like his reported resistance to the opening of a NATO liaison office in Japan also is, this positive vector of his country’s foreign policy hasn’t improved ties with Russia. It’s completely separate from their relations as proven by the continued waging of a proxy war against it in Africa that’s increasingly seeing France and the US team up against their shared rival in that New Cold War theater.
That being the case, Macron almost certainly intends to use his possible attendance at the upcoming BRICS Summit to bolster France’s reputation in Africa, which aims to restore some of its soft power there that’s been rapidly in decline over the past year as a result of Russia’s “Democratic Security” advances. France isn’t waging a proxy war against any other BRICS member, which is why none of them apparently has any problem with him showing up at that event, thus making Russia the only one that’s skeptical.
This means that he might very well be invited as his South African counterpart’s guest, but this wouldn’t harm Russia’s interests unless he exploits the opportunity to propose a partnership of some sort between his country and BRICS’ other members, especially if this is focused on Africa. If any of them agrees to this, then they risk eroding their presently positive reputations among the masses there since France is widely despised and toxic to be associated with for many.
It's ultimately their sovereign choice whether or not to do this, which should be respected regardless of whatever they decide, but each of them should at least be aware of the increasingly joint Franco-American proxy war on Russia in Africa and how unpopular Paris is among many of its people. These facts might not deter them from cooperating with France there, though they should know that this might be viewed with suspicion from some in Russia and could be at the expense of their reputation in Africa.