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Nakayama's avatar

If this was indeed Trump's plan, then it shows the power of moles planted into the administration of DJT. China will come out as the biggest winner in this Indo-Paki conflict. Note that China also controls a portion of Kashmir and has a passable land corridor into Afghanistan (mostly closed for security reasons).

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Tani's avatar

If DT doesn't realise the geo- politics he is really credulous

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Nakayama's avatar

I do believe DJT has no clue about geopolitics. After all, geopolitics deals with much larger real estate than his experiences have covered :-) However, jokes aside, Trump's concern was US domestic, and the reason he was elected was that people were concerned about the US domestic problems. His handlers have successfully used weaknesses in his personality (boasting, etc.) to mislead him and derail his policy focus. To look in the right direction is simply not enough to be a good POTUS. If he cannot be smarter and wiser, then he needs to have fewer personality faults. Morality is another matter, we were not electing the national saint.

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Herman's avatar

An U-turn from "pivot to Asia (China)" to "Sino-US bi-multipolarity" in the blink of an eye... With Trump, it never gets boring. What's next? Fasten seat belts.

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Velociraver's avatar

Sun Tzu would.never fall for that 🤣 Trump is a fool.

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Kurvingrad's avatar

Stupid, but not a fool

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Ladyc's avatar

But he’s followed with banning morectech exports and even Chinese student visas. I think it was a temporary truce to let both sides regroup.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Please. There is no method.

Trump appears to be weak, stupid and easily manipulated because he is in fact weak, stupid and easily manipulated. This is like trying to discern patterns in tea leaves or attempting to determine the will of the gods through harumancy.

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Kurvingrad's avatar

Of course there is a method.

Trump's method is "no method".

.

And it seems to work

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Gene Frenkle's avatar

No, Trump’s voters are the group that is easily manipulated. Biden did a great job and so it makes perfect sense for Trump to continue all of Biden’s policies. And all of the jobs we lost to globalization happened under Bush/Cheney who Trump voters were manipulated into voting for before Trump.

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Kurvingrad's avatar

So it's retardicans fault for being stupider than demoncrats?

Who was manipulated for voting blood thirsty Clinton or bomb-Obama?

All US voters are easily manipulated. Retards or Demons.

Biden did a great job.... licking icecream.

It was schadenfreudical pleasure seeing a retard war hawk like Sleepy Joe (youtube is polluted with his speches from before presidency) end up as a literal sockpuppet, an autosign avatar of a president, pissing and shitting all over his own legacy at every single step. An extraordinary self-inflicted humiliation no one else could've done.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Don't feed the troll.

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Gene Frenkle's avatar

We agree on most things now…so I’m a troll because I was right about everything in the past??

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Gene Frenkle's avatar

Biden did a great job as president. And Trump inherited 20 combat deaths a year down from 15 a week under Bush/Cheney. Trump maintained the 20 deaths a year and Biden got it to around 5 a year. More soldiers have died in accidents in Trump’s first 3 months than died in 4 years in combat under Biden.

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Kurvingrad's avatar

The Mumbly cartoon show.

Great cartoon.

Biden would've had an episode if it was revived again.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mumbly_Cartoon_Show#/media/File%3AThe_Mumbly_Cartoon_Show_card.JPG

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J M Hatch's avatar

No one but Uncle Sam itself will plunk that much money it into Pakistan, much less Afghanistan to develop something that will take 5/10 years to come to fruition. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and USA are not stable enough, in ascending order of instability. Narcotic Drug trade, sure, that's weeks to months before it starts to pay off, but large scale mining no way.

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Feral Finster's avatar

If Afghanistan were such a treasure trove of minerals waiting to be exploited, the Chinese would have already started investing.

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J M Hatch's avatar

If it could be done Belgian Congo style, they would, and probably are for somethings. Otherwise, Yep, Rare Earth mining without any refining at all would be a logistics nightmare. Refining even to get concentrate that is worth shipping requires infrastructure that no one would invest in unless they were criminally insane and doing it as a fraud rather than actually trying to move goods(looking at you, Uncle Sam).

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Feral Finster's avatar

It's an excuse, a way to rope Trump in because he's too stupid to note the obvious.

Remember how Trump was convinced to continue the occupation of Syria because oil? The actual amount of oil was a rounding error, no more, but the lure of piracy was enough to convince Trump.

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J M Hatch's avatar

Yes, at least it gives him a fig leaf. He probably suspects it’s a fraud, but that’s his family business so he’s quite okay when others do it as long as it can’t come back on his ego. I’m sure somedays he wakes up ready to blow up the gulf oil supply to kill both the EU and China, but then he thinks about all the good bribes he can shake down by holding off the real Neo-cons attempt at crashing the world economy, like a 200 M airplane.

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Velociraver's avatar

I would suggest that while US policy changes every four years, China plans for the long game. What may take Western enterprises five years can probably be done by China in three, or less. PAK is all hopped up on a Chinese aviation tech high, and ripe for a deal that would slam the door in Uncle Sam's face. China also will not require the same conditions as the west and provide more bang for the buck, as other projects demonstrate.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Every four years? Hell, tariffs sometimes change intraday.

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J M Hatch's avatar

Like you said below, they usually change every time someone leaves his office or someone is allowed in to whisper sweet nothings into his ear. The flunkies can't type them up fast enough.

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Tani's avatar

You voice interesting concerns- but if DT is foolish enough to return to the Nixon Kissinger line he is risking much more than damaging Indo US relations.

He may well split his own party.

By the way, India doesn't make " allegations" about terrorists harboured by Pakistan - it has concrete proof which has been handed over several times to Pakistan and the US.

You make the same mistake as most Westerners - creating a false equivalence between India and Pakistan.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Trump's support is a cult of personality. His policies don't matter, and his cult will support him, no matter what those policies are.

To be fair, the same could be said for his enemies. Trump could cure jock itch and they'd complain about it.

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Ohio Barbarian's avatar

There is a lot of speculation here, which to your credit you freely admit, but I think you're missing a key point, which is that Donald Trump does not have the final word on American foreign policy. He is not that important. That lies with the oligarchy which rules the US Empire, and they like to stay behind the scenes.

Sometimes they are divided, as they are with Israel and Russia, and may well be with India. None of them, however, want to see nuclear war on the Subcontinent, and Modi's strident persecution of Indian Muslims isn't exactly a recipe for stability, and more importantly to our oligarchy, profitability.

They know that Modi brought this latest crisis on primarily for domestic political reasons when they already have enough shit on their plates right now, thank you very much, and they're expressing their irritation through Trump, who really can throw a nice tantrum when he sets his mind to it.

There is no dominant grand imperial policy towards China now. It's in flux. Trump slapped on idiotically high tariffs, China responded by shifting its exports to other Asian countries, Trump hurriedly backed down, our oligarchy started reassessing its China policy, and now along comes Modi to try to take advantage of all the world's distractions to serve his own political ends.

Is it any wonder American oligarchs are a little miffed at him right now?

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Berta Nelson's avatar

Andrew, I appreciate this "educated guess" concerning recent developments in the DJT, India, Pakistan situation. Seems to me these "mineral deals" are likely a cover for investment foothold of Blackrock. Mining takes years & lots of labor & money. Real estate holdings simply need "development" such as Trump Towers. Seeing the growing agreements between Pakistan & China, DJT is simply inserting himself as USA into the neighborhood. Sure, the trade corridor can continue but USA will have oversight & probably leverage over the situation. Same is intended in Ukraine but President Putin is intending to cut it off. He would be foolish to allow Blackrock on Russia's doorstep. As to China, is it REALLY so very interested in sucking up to USA? We'll see.

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James Schwartz's avatar

Trump has to have a back up plan. Modi has been speaking out of both sides of his mouth when it comes to the US and now they are angry that Trump is doing it to them? India has taxed and tariffed US goods and wants more US investment then turns around and joins Brics? Modi is getting a taste of his own medicine. I’m guessing he dislikes the taste. Trump is like an elephant. He never forgets if you fuck around with him. Payback is a bitch in his world and he lives to deliver it. India does what’s best for their country and Trump is doing the same thing and somehow that’s wrong? Fuck Modi.

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Velociraver's avatar

It's entirely possible that, at this point, NOBODY is interested in an alliance with USA/Israel (because they are one and the same), and it will get very messy as an angry and jilted America lashes out.

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RalfB's avatar

Trump is not so much interested in access to minerals, as in Pakistan's prospective role in isolating and containing Iran.

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Qlqxxqq's avatar

A good read, but the entire piece is completely speculative. Not a negative critique, just realistic. Who has facts that you could report as factual anyways. He’s acting like he’s on drugs and can’t make a decision.

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Yoel Yonan's avatar

In other words, you’re clueless! Got it! Sit down and let the big boys handle it.

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Gene Frenkle's avatar

Where do you get the notion Trump wants to retake Bagram? Trump wisely surrendered to the Taliban and it was the Deep State that wanted to somehow trick him into keeping a small force in Bagram for counterterrorism. But Biden’s “over the horizon” force in Qatar has worked fine for counterterrorism. Do you think Trump wants to restart a war with the Taliban after surrendering to them??

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Ladyc's avatar

Interesting ideas. I do wonder though- is the ‘reset’ with China oversold? The effective tariffs are still double what they were on Inauguration Day, but the roller coaster and spin doctoring has the markets joyful. They are told how to interpret the latest twist/turn, but is it really going to be smooth sailing now? Or does Trump just need good press over the trade war while he locks in trillions of Gulf investment to evade a (mild) US recession? I can see the potential angle about Pakistan, Afghanistan and the minerals, but after three hundred years of failed western attempts in grappling with Afghanistan I’m wondering what in his calculus makes anything possible now. Also, does he think a minerals deal with Pak would divide its loyalties to China? Im doubtful. Also India still has suspended the Indus water treaty and no water is forthcoming to Pak yet. Isn’t that a win for India if Trump ignores it? As for China, Trump needs to buy time for the US economy to change structurally. But I’m doubtful Xi will fulfill any promises.

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