There Might Be More To The Von Der Leyen-GPS-Russia Hoax Than Scoring Cheap Infowar Points

NATO might exploit this hoax as the pretext for commencing large-scale but “plausibly deniable” electronic warfare provocations against Kaliningrad that could spike the risk of a civilian accident.

The Financial Times’ Brussels Bureau Chief Henry Foy prompted panic across Europe last week when he reported that Russian electronic warfare succeeded in jamming the GPS of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plane right as she was about to land in Bulgaria. The thought that Putin supposedly tried to assassinate a Western leader through “plausibly deniable” means complemented the purpose of her visit by drawing attention to the supposed “Russian threat” that the frontline states face.

The problem though is that this never happened. FlightRadar24, which is the world’s most reputable source for in-flight information, shared data debunking this claim. Bulgaria itself later walked back its initial support of this story, which its pro-Western leadership would never have done had there been any truth to it. Politico then published a piece to their credit about how this allegation is starting to unravel. All of this lent credence to Russian officials’ denials that their country jammed von der Leyen’s plane.

Foy’s report was therefore exposed as a hoax, but the question naturally arises of why this false narrative implying that Russia sought to assassinate a Western leader through “plausibly deniable” means was planted in the first place regardless of whether it was on his own initiative or in collusion with others. While casual observers might chalk it up as a means of scoring cheap infowar points against Russia at a politically convenient time (i.e. von der Leyen’s trip to the frontline states), there might be more to it.

Astute observers will recall the recurring threats made against Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad since the special operation began. These include Lithuania’s brief blockade of that region, Poland’s renaming of it to “Krolewiec” in reference to the long-gone time when it was a Polish fief, and NATO’s military buildup that’s explicitly predicated in part on neutralizing Russian military forces there. It thus wouldn’t be far-fetched to speculate that Foy’s hoax is meant to justify aggressive signals jamming in Kaliningrad.

“SVR Once Again Warned About A British-Ukrainian False Flag Provocation At Sea” in August, which reminded folks of the Baltic’s role in the current tensions. Its symbolic transformation into a “NATO lake” after Finland and Sweden joined NATO, which followed decades of close cooperation with that hitherto made them de facto members anyhow, might have emboldened the West to stage “plausibly deniable” large-scale electronic warfare provocations against Kaliningrad. This could boost Western morale.

Although NATO would be implicated due to it being the only realistic culprit, the bloc might expect that tensions would still remain manageable, all while the public praises their leaders for approving “bold hybrid warfare” operations on Russia’s own turf. This is a dangerous assumption, however, since it takes for granted that such aggressive signals jamming won’t result in a civilian accident. If it does, then Russia might unleash its full electronic warfare potential against the West in a rare symmetrical escalation.

Of course, it’s also possible that Foy’s von der Leyen-GPS-Russia hoax was indeed just some random attempt to score cheap infowar points against Russia, though it can’t confidently be ruled out that this was a perception management operation aimed at advancing the aforesaid goal. Kaliningrad remains too tantalizing of a target for Western warmongers to ignore, especially those who want to provoke a crisis that could pull Trump deeper into mission creep, and this hoax provides the pretext for attempting that.