Three Details That Most Observers Missed From SIPRI’s Latest International Arms Trends Report

What these three trends have in common is their adverse impact on Russian national security.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is regarded as the top authority on the international arms trade, released its latest report about related trends from 2021-2025 last month. The top takeaway is that “Europe was the region with the largest share of total global arms imports (33 per cent) for the first time since the 1960s”, but there are three other relatively more minor details therein that most observers missed but which are also important to be aware of. They are as follows:

----------

1. South Korea Edged Out The US As Poland’s Top Arms Supplier

Last year’s report covering the years 2020-2024 noted that Poland imported 42% of its arms from South Korea during that period and 45% from the US, yet the last report shows that it imported 47% from South Korea and 44% from the US. This respectively amounted to 46% of South Korean arms exports from 2020-2024 and 58% from 2021-2025. In total, South Korea exported 2.2% of the world’s arms during the first period and 3% during the second, thus showing the global importance of sales to Poland.

Why this matters is that it represents the first time to the best of the author’s knowledge that a NATO member is now supplied more by an Asian country than a fellow Western one. Poland’s enormous military build-up, which has resulted in it now fielding NATO’s third-largest army, is also a boon for the South Korean arms industry. With Poland increasingly demonstrating the quality of these wares to its allies during NATO drills, it’s possible that other members of the bloc might soon follow its lead.

2. Kazakhstan’s Is Gradually Replacing Russian Arms With Western Ones

During the period 2020-2024, Kazakhstan imported 6.4% of its arms from Spain and 1.5% from Turkiye as its second- and third-largest arms suppliers, with Russia far ahead of them with 88% of its supplies. During the latest period from 2021-2025, imports from Spain increased to 7.9% while France replaced Turkiye as Kazakhstan’s third-largest supplier at 3.6%, with Russia’s share slightly decreasing to 83%. The decrease in Russia’s supplies was therefore roughly replaced by the increase in Western supplies.

Why this matters is that it contextualizes Kazakhstan’s decision last December to produce NATO-standard shells, the potential consequences of which were analyzed here as possibly placing it on an irreversible collision course with Russia. The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” across the South Caucasus could also facilitate the flow of more Western arms by reducing transport costs. It’s therefore expected that Kazakhstan will continue to gradually replace its Russian arms with Western ones.

3. Israel Became Germany’s Largest Arms Partner Due To A Mega Arms Deal

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

----------

What these three trends have in common is their adverse impact on Russian national security. The Kremlin likely assumed that Poland and Germany would continue militarizing, even competing to lead Russia’s containment, but South Korea and Israel’s new respective roles as their top suppliers probably came as a surprise. What it might not have anticipated at all, however, was the West gradually making gains in the Kazakh arms market. Russia will have to deal with these latent threats somehow or another.