I don’t want to “like” this piece but I do accept its logical validity. A fourth, less likely scenario is that Russia and China decide neither of the aforementioned scenarios are acceptable to them and decisively intervene, thus triggering what is then ikely to become nuclear WWIII. A fifth, even less likely scenario is that regime change happens in the USA and / or Israel, whether spontaneously or as engineered by a foreign party. There have been several recent articles in the mainstream media suggesting that the USA is getting perilously low on missile stocks, especially interceptors. Of course, given their provenance, such stories might be bait-and-switch pieces planted by deep state agencies. Even if true, I accept that the conflict is likely to go nuclear before the aggressors become genuinely vulnerable due to a loss of air defence capabilities.
It is clear the Iranians have decided enough is enough and they plan to go for broke. It is also clear to Russia and China if the Ameraelis get away with this then they will be next. Russia and China cannot afford to let Iran fall. Having said that, as the grownups on the planet facing the unhinged adolescent Americans, they are also more likely to use economic pressure to stop the Trumpians resorting to nukes when they know they are losing.
If the Americans did use nuclear weapons on Iran they would need to use a lot against 92 million people to destroy the place. And that would not just poison the Middle East it would poison the world including Americans.
Most likely Islamist elements—linked to Iran, the Turkish–Qatari axis, and/or both—will manipulate the Anglo-French into giving Ukraine radioactive material that will be used in a false-flag incident, resulting in a MAD scenario for the ‘infidel’ (non-Muslim) powers. That will bring down both the West and Russia, including Israel, while relieving pressure on Muslim powers such as Iran.
Yes, and also because Muslims have infiltrated top NATO command structures through instrumentalization, including their ties to supranational liberal-globalist/Islamist networks. Also, WWIII would affect the equatorial regions less than areas farther north, so it would have less impact on Muslim-majority areas.
Jews are not a monolith, given nationalist–internationalist fissures. The Jews who support liberal-leftist globalism also tend to oppose Zionism, being Marxist-aligned. These ‘Jews’ openly provide cover for Islamist attacks on Jews and others who do not support ‘their’ agenda (which, in truth, is *not* ‘theirs’, but Muslims’). Zionist Jews, along with anti-Zionist Orthodox Jews, support traditionalist forces against the ‘Red–Green’ bloc. Even the fascists, being European nationalists, looked upon anticommunist Jews more favorably than they did upon Muslim Arabs, the latter of whom consistently sided with the anti-Zionist Soviets from 1917 on.
EU figureheads are hardly more intelligent or wield more ‘control’ than Trump and Co. do. They operate within institutional and parallel structures that are run by manipulative actors. The latter have infiltrated Western society and have preselected so-called ‘leaders’ they are able to use. These puppeteers are hardly ‘imaginary’, and take great pains to disguise their identities. (Why do you think the standard ‘conspiratorial’ rejoinder is that they are messianic Jews?)
Andrew, I don't understand something in option 2. You speak about a possible coup of Guardians of Revolution, United by their ideology....favouring USA????
I don't understand. Their ideology show USA as the " Great Satan".
It would be unideological IRGC members, as in those that don't truly believe in the ideology of the US as the "Great Satan", have become disillusioned by it over time, or don't believe that it's worth the costs of maintaining even if they're still true believers in it in principle.
The IRGC is a highly ideological institution, more so than most armed forces, and there have been very few, if any, ‘defections’ over the years, so I consider this possibility a long shot.
Perhaps but one must remember that in Syria, they were the firsts to give up without fighting the place they was supposed to defend. Their treason launched the big stampede which ousted Assad and permitted to jihadist to take the country'
It remains to be seen, they're pretty ideological as far as I'm aware, but I wouldn't rule out the scenario. In any case, it's one of Trump 2.0's goals, I believe, whether or not it's ultimately attainable.
My analysis differ somewhat from the author‘s. Iranian strategy and its implementation are more flexible than Western equivalents, hence its ability to reconstitute its military-industrial complex; it already seems to have replenished its ballistic-missile stockpiles, based on early indicators. Iran’s geographic layout, leadership style, cultural matrix, and skilled workforce far surpass anything NATO is equipped to handle, in terms of versatility. Its soft power is massive as well, not least through its influence on the Muslim diaspora.
The prospect of a fragmented Iran is lessened by the unwillingness of its neighbors—Turkey, Azerbaijan, and/or Pakistan—to facilitate the entry of large ground forces. So far the U.S. and Israel seem to be waging a more intense version of the July War. History shows that a reliance on airstrikes, blockades, and/or targeted assassinations, as well as a chimerical ‘color revolution’, will have less chance of success in Iran than elsewhere, owing to a variety of factors, not least Iran’s institutional resiliency.
Finally, Islamist actors such as Iran have more clout, intelligence, and ruthlessness than most Westerners put together. More than ever they will marshal their covert links in an effort to turn the ‘infidel’ powers against each other, à la Lenin’s attempts to maneuver the ‘capitalists’ into MAD. Mass migration and social engineering have allowed subversive forces to exert influence on or enter the Western elite, including its military-intelligence forces. An Islamist–(pseudo-?)leftist infrastructure will enable the false flag that sparks WWIII.*
*Most likely a Ukrainian nuclear incident to be blamed on Russia that results in a NATO–Russia war, destroying all the ‘infidel’ powers.
Hmm, I think there is a plausible scenario 4, new ayatollah, war goes on for several weeks, both sides declare victory and Brics continue. Basically nothing changes.
Marco, that's completely inappropriate and violates my golden rule against ad hominem attacks, especially against myself and including speculation about my motives. I'm not a "closeted zionist", I simply reflect reality as I sincerely understand it to be. Please don't personally attack me again, thank you.
No, he merely recognizes that Russian and Iranian interests are often at odds. It is no coincidence that the forces trying to provoke a NATO–Russia war and/or topple Trump also tend to be proximate to pro-Iran/-Islamist/-AoR ‘Red–Green’ (i.e., intersectional, liberal-globalist/leftist, ‘anti-imperialist’) networks. The Epstein files and Zelensky’s nuclear threats suspiciously escalated as soon as Trump finalized his Iran attack plans.
Nothing has been mentioned about the massive anti-war, anti-Trump protests erupting all across the USA. Trump has betrayed his MAGA base, and the millions who voted for him because he said he would be the "Peace President." The USA is also in rapid, economic freefall which the blocking of the Straights of Hormuz could trigger the final collapse as soon as the stock market opens tomorrow in the USA. Another important fact that has not been mentioned is that Donald Trump and the USA have already lost face. There is no putting lipstick on this pig this time. The entire world has turned against him, the USA and Israel. And, a final point, Iran has declared Jihad on the USA and Israel and has vowed to fight to the finish. Iran, left standing without finishing off Israel and the USA in the region, will only live to fight another day. Finally, for the first time since Iraq, Americans will be seeing hundreds, maybe thousands of their boys returning home in body bags, and the destruction of billions of dollars of US strategic resources across the region destroyed. There is no way the USA, Trump, or that genocidal pig, Netanyahu come out of this except in a very serious way. Amen!
"Nothing has been mentioned about the massive anti-war, anti-Trump protests erupting all across the USA." because they're not happening.
"Outcry" from some quarters, on social media.
From some Democratic politicians and pundits, for bypassing Congress, for seemingly having no plan for "later," from a few for the Bibi-Orange bromance.
From some fringe magaworld players (Cucker Tarlson fans), but mainstream maga contorts their reasoning to justify his actions and/or keeps their mouths shut.
Massive protests? Only in your imagination. Perhaps the next "No Kings" will be larger, but not because of this (unless Americans start dying in numbers). No one protests on behalf of the poor, misunderstood Iranian theocracy.
The Vietnamese and North Koreans defeated the biggest military force for the same reasons Palestinians and Iranians will ultimately defeat their aggressors. They were fight a just cause for their homeland. That is a power beyond weapons.
Also at work are, the US has depleted its weapons significantly on its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia and in topping up the ever wasteful and forever attacking someone, Israelis. Unlike Iran, and indeed Russia, the US does not have a competent weapons manufacturing industry which can replace quickly. Military experts agree, years would be needed to replace what has been used.
Israel is self sufficient in nothing but hate, rage and terrorism. It makes none of its weapons in any independent sense and is totally dependent on the world for parts. Destroy its ports and airports and it folds in a week. Plus it is universally detested and boycotts will grow and sanctions will increase.
Both the Palestinians and Iranians have studied the evil bastards who have attacked them for years and understand them better than they do themselves, particularly the Israelis. The US is weak where it matters. The younger generations do not want to be soldiers or fight wars and the US simply does not have the boots on the ground to win any war, let alone against Iran. Israel has spread itself across seven fronts, ego-driven, and does not have the boots on the ground or a competent, sane, army which can hold ground. The Palestinian Resistance defeated them in Gaza, at great cost, but defeated them all the same.
As to Balkanization, well, more American delusions. Clearly no understanding of the Iranian people and their culture. If a foreign State assassinated the American President and took out Congress would the US balkanize? probably a greater chance than Iran with its 7000 year history.
A surprisingly shallow analysis from an usually more trustworthy analyst.
Option 1 is possible, but only within the subgroup of a general option 1 where Iran survive the onslaught. Considering everything, it is much more likely that Iran is, and can, take whatever aerial campaign the US and Israel dish out - aerial only campaign don't have the best track record when it comes to overthrowing governments, as in they never worked afaik - and give back as much as it can. A shallow, very shallow peace may emerge later with Iran tripling down against Israel and US. I wouldn't be surprised if the first thing they do after this is to revoke the fatwa against nuclear weapons, and buy truckloads of anti-ship missiles.
Option 2 is delusional. Especially after the murder of Khomeini, the idea that "non ideological IRGC members" - an oxymoron if i ever read one - could stage a succesful coup is preposterous. What share of the population, or of the institution, let alone the main army, would follow them? Calling it "the Venezuelan route" doesn't help either, considering that once screened the white house PR messages Venezuela does not seem to have subordinated itself too much either.
Option 3 is vaguely possible, but i write this only because it is not clear how resilient is the ground army in Iran, or how strong are eventual revolutionaires.
Question for Andrew, what stops Russia from taking out Zelenksy? I mean, if the others can do it, why can't the Russians do the same? At least, it will allow for new elections.
My guess is taking out Zelensky doesn’t serve a useful purpose. It would make him a martyr for the West and create a possible narrative for enhanced NATO support. SMO is being prosecuted at the rate the Russian Military deems appropriate. Western support is waning and no reason to fan the flames.
Who cares about martyrs? If NATO will engage more, Russia should do what they should have done a long time ago and use nuclear weapons. Putin and Xi look more and more like weak leaders while the West has no morals and no ethics.
I partially disagree. The "destroyed" part could be projected on both Viet Nam and North Korea. Despite them being "destroyed" they're still present, and sovereign. The nuke scenario would fully fit the "destroyed" assignment. It can never be ruled out but it wasn't applied to Viet Nam nor Afghanistan. Both wars the US empire undeniably lost.
Scenario's:
Scenario 1. Sounds partially realistic. They (the "reformists" like Pezachian) accept a form of subordination whereby they succeed the IRGC in militarely stopping support for regional militias/allies aspiring for self determination and only provide oil to China fully in coordination with US imperial diktats.
Scenario 2. Sounds partially realistic. Venezuela however doesn't currently have US-friendly members in charge. They're just scared to death as they have no allies that can support them in a military confrontation. The photo ops with Delcy and the military shaking hands with US (and CIA) are information warfare with the mid term to long term political intent on lowering the moral of population so they eventually can move in US puppets which is not yet possible. They can't military confront because China unwilling and Russia unable because occupied at home. The "reformist" Pezachian however would indisputably be a US-friendly member. Pezachian who was referred to as the absent goal keeper by the Israeli's. He would sell out Iran for sure and he could wield an AK47 a walk down the whole Iranian coast line and the US+Israeli's would still not touch him.
Scenario 3. Sounds partially realistic. Your lens looks limited. The most likely actors are the Kurds. And yes, the 5K "ISIS" inmates released from Al Hol in Syria will be injected in the Iranian war theater. The CIA infiltrated Balochi separatists too but they are a headache to the Pakistani's and they also set back local Chinese combined economic projects (they murder Chinese engineers with CIA help). Pakistan getting involved wouldn't be against Iran but to protect itself.
Scenario 4. Russia recognizes the pending treat coming from its southern front as well as the severing of important logistics routes and assists Iran in withstanding the US onslaught and replicates another US Viet Nam scenario. It has the means because the US has no control over the Caspian Sea and the Azeri's can be militarily neutralized if need be.
Scenario 5. China attributing the required resources to enable Iran to defend itself. Having them sink an air craft carrier for example and having them take down a number of F35 and B2's which would bring the US empire to its knees and would enable China to reassert control over its separatist Taiwan province. From the current course of events, this looks highly unlikely because Xi Jin Ping seems to have set his eyes on continued economic expansion to the detriment of those who bonded with China.
Iran should ask for the united territories and genocidal states of America and Zionist regime of Israel give up their nuclear weapons and and weapons of mass destruction, give back the land to the Palestinians and surrender themselves to the ICC and be prosecuted for crimes against humanity
I think that the 48 iranian leaders killed in 24h( who gave their location to US services?) and the fact that Pezeskian is not on the kille list, lead to think that the coup is already done.
Is this a joke this story assumes that America and Israel win.
I would like to remind you that America has already supplied one military of more than a million men to invade Iran and after 7 years and hundreds of thousands of dead they lost.
I agree with you on the principle of the 3 potential outcomes.
However, for the first one when Iran survives, I think that will mean the destruction of Israel and the thorough defeat of the USA to the extent they won’t try this again.
Short of that, t’s a death spiral for Iran that doesn’t make any sense to me in an existential war (as it is now for Iran).
I don’t want to “like” this piece but I do accept its logical validity. A fourth, less likely scenario is that Russia and China decide neither of the aforementioned scenarios are acceptable to them and decisively intervene, thus triggering what is then ikely to become nuclear WWIII. A fifth, even less likely scenario is that regime change happens in the USA and / or Israel, whether spontaneously or as engineered by a foreign party. There have been several recent articles in the mainstream media suggesting that the USA is getting perilously low on missile stocks, especially interceptors. Of course, given their provenance, such stories might be bait-and-switch pieces planted by deep state agencies. Even if true, I accept that the conflict is likely to go nuclear before the aggressors become genuinely vulnerable due to a loss of air defence capabilities.
It is clear the Iranians have decided enough is enough and they plan to go for broke. It is also clear to Russia and China if the Ameraelis get away with this then they will be next. Russia and China cannot afford to let Iran fall. Having said that, as the grownups on the planet facing the unhinged adolescent Americans, they are also more likely to use economic pressure to stop the Trumpians resorting to nukes when they know they are losing.
If the Americans did use nuclear weapons on Iran they would need to use a lot against 92 million people to destroy the place. And that would not just poison the Middle East it would poison the world including Americans.
This would require Russia and China to become far more aggressive and proactive.
Most likely Islamist elements—linked to Iran, the Turkish–Qatari axis, and/or both—will manipulate the Anglo-French into giving Ukraine radioactive material that will be used in a false-flag incident, resulting in a MAD scenario for the ‘infidel’ (non-Muslim) powers. That will bring down both the West and Russia, including Israel, while relieving pressure on Muslim powers such as Iran.
Because Islamist elements are genius level strategic planners and have found a way to insulate themselves from nuclear winter?
Yes, and also because Muslims have infiltrated top NATO command structures through instrumentalization, including their ties to supranational liberal-globalist/Islamist networks. Also, WWIII would affect the equatorial regions less than areas farther north, so it would have less impact on Muslim-majority areas.
You mean Jews mate. They are the infiltrators.
Jews are not a monolith, given nationalist–internationalist fissures. The Jews who support liberal-leftist globalism also tend to oppose Zionism, being Marxist-aligned. These ‘Jews’ openly provide cover for Islamist attacks on Jews and others who do not support ‘their’ agenda (which, in truth, is *not* ‘theirs’, but Muslims’). Zionist Jews, along with anti-Zionist Orthodox Jews, support traditionalist forces against the ‘Red–Green’ bloc. Even the fascists, being European nationalists, looked upon anticommunist Jews more favorably than they did upon Muslim Arabs, the latter of whom consistently sided with the anti-Zionist Soviets from 1917 on.
Unfortunately for 78 years very few Jews have condemned the Israeli regime and its terrorism and atrocities and most have funded it.
Because the british and french have to be tricked into supporting Ukraine?
Come on. No shadowy conspiracy of imaginary infiltrators is needed. The brits and french will do it on their own.
EU figureheads are hardly more intelligent or wield more ‘control’ than Trump and Co. do. They operate within institutional and parallel structures that are run by manipulative actors. The latter have infiltrated Western society and have preselected so-called ‘leaders’ they are able to use. These puppeteers are hardly ‘imaginary’, and take great pains to disguise their identities. (Why do you think the standard ‘conspiratorial’ rejoinder is that they are messianic Jews?)
Andrew, I don't understand something in option 2. You speak about a possible coup of Guardians of Revolution, United by their ideology....favouring USA????
I don't understand. Their ideology show USA as the " Great Satan".
It would be unideological IRGC members, as in those that don't truly believe in the ideology of the US as the "Great Satan", have become disillusioned by it over time, or don't believe that it's worth the costs of maintaining even if they're still true believers in it in principle.
The IRGC is a highly ideological institution, more so than most armed forces, and there have been very few, if any, ‘defections’ over the years, so I consider this possibility a long shot.
Perhaps but one must remember that in Syria, they were the firsts to give up without fighting the place they was supposed to defend. Their treason launched the big stampede which ousted Assad and permitted to jihadist to take the country'
From the looks of it they believe more in Power and Money than they believe in Allah...
Thank you Andrew, I didn't know that even GRC was rotten...like Venezuela state apparatus....and Syria.
It remains to be seen, they're pretty ideological as far as I'm aware, but I wouldn't rule out the scenario. In any case, it's one of Trump 2.0's goals, I believe, whether or not it's ultimately attainable.
48 heads of Iranian state apparatus, and Pezeskian not on the list. I think the coup is already made.
My analysis differ somewhat from the author‘s. Iranian strategy and its implementation are more flexible than Western equivalents, hence its ability to reconstitute its military-industrial complex; it already seems to have replenished its ballistic-missile stockpiles, based on early indicators. Iran’s geographic layout, leadership style, cultural matrix, and skilled workforce far surpass anything NATO is equipped to handle, in terms of versatility. Its soft power is massive as well, not least through its influence on the Muslim diaspora.
The prospect of a fragmented Iran is lessened by the unwillingness of its neighbors—Turkey, Azerbaijan, and/or Pakistan—to facilitate the entry of large ground forces. So far the U.S. and Israel seem to be waging a more intense version of the July War. History shows that a reliance on airstrikes, blockades, and/or targeted assassinations, as well as a chimerical ‘color revolution’, will have less chance of success in Iran than elsewhere, owing to a variety of factors, not least Iran’s institutional resiliency.
Finally, Islamist actors such as Iran have more clout, intelligence, and ruthlessness than most Westerners put together. More than ever they will marshal their covert links in an effort to turn the ‘infidel’ powers against each other, à la Lenin’s attempts to maneuver the ‘capitalists’ into MAD. Mass migration and social engineering have allowed subversive forces to exert influence on or enter the Western elite, including its military-intelligence forces. An Islamist–(pseudo-?)leftist infrastructure will enable the false flag that sparks WWIII.*
*Most likely a Ukrainian nuclear incident to be blamed on Russia that results in a NATO–Russia war, destroying all the ‘infidel’ powers.
Hmm, I think there is a plausible scenario 4, new ayatollah, war goes on for several weeks, both sides declare victory and Brics continue. Basically nothing changes.
Looks like Andrew is a closeted zionist
Marco, that's completely inappropriate and violates my golden rule against ad hominem attacks, especially against myself and including speculation about my motives. I'm not a "closeted zionist", I simply reflect reality as I sincerely understand it to be. Please don't personally attack me again, thank you.
No, he merely recognizes that Russian and Iranian interests are often at odds. It is no coincidence that the forces trying to provoke a NATO–Russia war and/or topple Trump also tend to be proximate to pro-Iran/-Islamist/-AoR ‘Red–Green’ (i.e., intersectional, liberal-globalist/leftist, ‘anti-imperialist’) networks. The Epstein files and Zelensky’s nuclear threats suspiciously escalated as soon as Trump finalized his Iran attack plans.
Nothing has been mentioned about the massive anti-war, anti-Trump protests erupting all across the USA. Trump has betrayed his MAGA base, and the millions who voted for him because he said he would be the "Peace President." The USA is also in rapid, economic freefall which the blocking of the Straights of Hormuz could trigger the final collapse as soon as the stock market opens tomorrow in the USA. Another important fact that has not been mentioned is that Donald Trump and the USA have already lost face. There is no putting lipstick on this pig this time. The entire world has turned against him, the USA and Israel. And, a final point, Iran has declared Jihad on the USA and Israel and has vowed to fight to the finish. Iran, left standing without finishing off Israel and the USA in the region, will only live to fight another day. Finally, for the first time since Iraq, Americans will be seeing hundreds, maybe thousands of their boys returning home in body bags, and the destruction of billions of dollars of US strategic resources across the region destroyed. There is no way the USA, Trump, or that genocidal pig, Netanyahu come out of this except in a very serious way. Amen!
I don't see any viable pathway for protests to end US participation in this war.
"Nothing has been mentioned about the massive anti-war, anti-Trump protests erupting all across the USA." because they're not happening.
"Outcry" from some quarters, on social media.
From some Democratic politicians and pundits, for bypassing Congress, for seemingly having no plan for "later," from a few for the Bibi-Orange bromance.
From some fringe magaworld players (Cucker Tarlson fans), but mainstream maga contorts their reasoning to justify his actions and/or keeps their mouths shut.
Protests have been small, despite the East Coast's big thaw this sunny weekend (~20 C in DC), and protestors are super lefty: https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cr5lz3v1003o
Massive protests? Only in your imagination. Perhaps the next "No Kings" will be larger, but not because of this (unless Americans start dying in numbers). No one protests on behalf of the poor, misunderstood Iranian theocracy.
Got a link?
The Vietnamese and North Koreans defeated the biggest military force for the same reasons Palestinians and Iranians will ultimately defeat their aggressors. They were fight a just cause for their homeland. That is a power beyond weapons.
Also at work are, the US has depleted its weapons significantly on its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia and in topping up the ever wasteful and forever attacking someone, Israelis. Unlike Iran, and indeed Russia, the US does not have a competent weapons manufacturing industry which can replace quickly. Military experts agree, years would be needed to replace what has been used.
Israel is self sufficient in nothing but hate, rage and terrorism. It makes none of its weapons in any independent sense and is totally dependent on the world for parts. Destroy its ports and airports and it folds in a week. Plus it is universally detested and boycotts will grow and sanctions will increase.
Both the Palestinians and Iranians have studied the evil bastards who have attacked them for years and understand them better than they do themselves, particularly the Israelis. The US is weak where it matters. The younger generations do not want to be soldiers or fight wars and the US simply does not have the boots on the ground to win any war, let alone against Iran. Israel has spread itself across seven fronts, ego-driven, and does not have the boots on the ground or a competent, sane, army which can hold ground. The Palestinian Resistance defeated them in Gaza, at great cost, but defeated them all the same.
As to Balkanization, well, more American delusions. Clearly no understanding of the Iranian people and their culture. If a foreign State assassinated the American President and took out Congress would the US balkanize? probably a greater chance than Iran with its 7000 year history.
A surprisingly shallow analysis from an usually more trustworthy analyst.
Option 1 is possible, but only within the subgroup of a general option 1 where Iran survive the onslaught. Considering everything, it is much more likely that Iran is, and can, take whatever aerial campaign the US and Israel dish out - aerial only campaign don't have the best track record when it comes to overthrowing governments, as in they never worked afaik - and give back as much as it can. A shallow, very shallow peace may emerge later with Iran tripling down against Israel and US. I wouldn't be surprised if the first thing they do after this is to revoke the fatwa against nuclear weapons, and buy truckloads of anti-ship missiles.
Option 2 is delusional. Especially after the murder of Khomeini, the idea that "non ideological IRGC members" - an oxymoron if i ever read one - could stage a succesful coup is preposterous. What share of the population, or of the institution, let alone the main army, would follow them? Calling it "the Venezuelan route" doesn't help either, considering that once screened the white house PR messages Venezuela does not seem to have subordinated itself too much either.
Option 3 is vaguely possible, but i write this only because it is not clear how resilient is the ground army in Iran, or how strong are eventual revolutionaires.
Question for Andrew, what stops Russia from taking out Zelenksy? I mean, if the others can do it, why can't the Russians do the same? At least, it will allow for new elections.
My guess is taking out Zelensky doesn’t serve a useful purpose. It would make him a martyr for the West and create a possible narrative for enhanced NATO support. SMO is being prosecuted at the rate the Russian Military deems appropriate. Western support is waning and no reason to fan the flames.
If your story helps you feel better, enjoy - even though the actual reason is ANEMIA.
Who cares about martyrs? If NATO will engage more, Russia should do what they should have done a long time ago and use nuclear weapons. Putin and Xi look more and more like weak leaders while the West has no morals and no ethics.
Good response...wondering how wide the protection extends to his associates.
I partially disagree. The "destroyed" part could be projected on both Viet Nam and North Korea. Despite them being "destroyed" they're still present, and sovereign. The nuke scenario would fully fit the "destroyed" assignment. It can never be ruled out but it wasn't applied to Viet Nam nor Afghanistan. Both wars the US empire undeniably lost.
Scenario's:
Scenario 1. Sounds partially realistic. They (the "reformists" like Pezachian) accept a form of subordination whereby they succeed the IRGC in militarely stopping support for regional militias/allies aspiring for self determination and only provide oil to China fully in coordination with US imperial diktats.
Scenario 2. Sounds partially realistic. Venezuela however doesn't currently have US-friendly members in charge. They're just scared to death as they have no allies that can support them in a military confrontation. The photo ops with Delcy and the military shaking hands with US (and CIA) are information warfare with the mid term to long term political intent on lowering the moral of population so they eventually can move in US puppets which is not yet possible. They can't military confront because China unwilling and Russia unable because occupied at home. The "reformist" Pezachian however would indisputably be a US-friendly member. Pezachian who was referred to as the absent goal keeper by the Israeli's. He would sell out Iran for sure and he could wield an AK47 a walk down the whole Iranian coast line and the US+Israeli's would still not touch him.
Scenario 3. Sounds partially realistic. Your lens looks limited. The most likely actors are the Kurds. And yes, the 5K "ISIS" inmates released from Al Hol in Syria will be injected in the Iranian war theater. The CIA infiltrated Balochi separatists too but they are a headache to the Pakistani's and they also set back local Chinese combined economic projects (they murder Chinese engineers with CIA help). Pakistan getting involved wouldn't be against Iran but to protect itself.
Scenario 4. Russia recognizes the pending treat coming from its southern front as well as the severing of important logistics routes and assists Iran in withstanding the US onslaught and replicates another US Viet Nam scenario. It has the means because the US has no control over the Caspian Sea and the Azeri's can be militarily neutralized if need be.
Scenario 5. China attributing the required resources to enable Iran to defend itself. Having them sink an air craft carrier for example and having them take down a number of F35 and B2's which would bring the US empire to its knees and would enable China to reassert control over its separatist Taiwan province. From the current course of events, this looks highly unlikely because Xi Jin Ping seems to have set his eyes on continued economic expansion to the detriment of those who bonded with China.
Iran should ask for the united territories and genocidal states of America and Zionist regime of Israel give up their nuclear weapons and and weapons of mass destruction, give back the land to the Palestinians and surrender themselves to the ICC and be prosecuted for crimes against humanity
I think that the 48 iranian leaders killed in 24h( who gave their location to US services?) and the fact that Pezeskian is not on the kille list, lead to think that the coup is already done.
Iran is Russia's neighbor, bbecause of that it will not go the way of Venezuela. .Iran, China, Ruussia abig part of the MULTIPOWERE world. That Simple
Yes, you are.
How's about feigning peace while building nukes?
Is this a joke this story assumes that America and Israel win.
I would like to remind you that America has already supplied one military of more than a million men to invade Iran and after 7 years and hundreds of thousands of dead they lost.
I agree with you on the principle of the 3 potential outcomes.
However, for the first one when Iran survives, I think that will mean the destruction of Israel and the thorough defeat of the USA to the extent they won’t try this again.
Short of that, t’s a death spiral for Iran that doesn’t make any sense to me in an existential war (as it is now for Iran).