Trump 2.0 Must Urgently Declare Its Position Towards Nukes In Estonia

The potential transfer of tactical nukes to the UK’s control for use with their planned Estonian-based F-35As would unprecedentedly worsen the already dangerous NATO-Russian security dilemma.

It was earlier advised that “Trump 2.0 Must Urgently Declare Its Position Towards Poland’s Nuclear Weapons Plans”, which it has yet to do despite Warsaw’s intentions worsening the already dangerous NATO-Russian security dilemma, but now it must also declare its position towards nukes in Estonia too. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna reaffirmed in an interview last month that his country isn’t opposed to hosting other NATO allies’ nukes. That would unprecedentedly worsen tensions with Russia.

This scenario first arose last summer after the Defense Minister declared that his country is interested in hosting nuclear-capable F-35As from its allies, with the outlet that he said this to suggesting that the UK could deploy some of the 12 that it plans to purchase after they’re transferred. That was analyzed here at the time. Late last year, British media then reported that the US might once again store tactical nukes in the UK, which revived that scenario as explained here. It’s therefore credible and can’t be ruled out.

The reason why it should be taken more seriously than ever before isn’t just due to the Foreign Minister reaffirming this policy that was already known to all, but due to the larger context within which he did so, namely the highly uncertain post-START era and associated risk of a global nuclear arms race. This greatly raises the chance that the UK will request that the US transfer the tactical nukes that it reportedly plans to once again base there to the UK’s control for use with their planned Estonian-based F-35As.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to the scenario of nukes in Estonia by reminding everyone that “Estonia is very close to us, and we don’t threaten Estonia, just like any other European country. However, if there are nuclear weapons on Estonian territory aimed at us, our nuclear weapons will be aimed at Estonian territory, and Estonia must clearly understand it. Russia will always do what it must to ensure its own security, especially when it comes to nuclear deterrence issues.”

Nevertheless, Estonia appears hellbent on hosting nukes presumably as a means of deterring the Russian invasion that its leadership is pathologically afraid is inevitable, but these calculations inadvertently discredit its stated belief in Article 5’s inviolability. After all, Estonia is signaling that it can’t take direct NATO military assistance for granted in that far-fetched scenario despite already hosting several allies’ forces, ergo the alleged need to host nukes too in order to assure that it isn’t hung out to dry.

The reality is that Russia has no plans to invade NATO since its rapid military-technical advances since 2022 have proven that it can counter the bloc’s security threats without having to invade and it also has no interest in occupying a hostie population just for the sake of it at the risk of sparking World War III. As Peskov confirmed, all that Russia will do is aim its nukes at Estonia in response, but the significance of such a move shouldn’t be downplayed since it means that Estonia would be destroyed if war breaks out.

In any case, war isn’t inevitable, and the risk thereof could decrease if Trump 2.0 declares that it won’t transfer tactical nukes to the UK’s control for use with their planned Estonian-based F-35As. The UK’s only remaining nuclear capability is submarine-launched missiles, which it can’t deploy to Estonia since the latter lacks an active submarine base, but its Soviet-era one could possibly be refurbished for this purpose. The US would likely have to agree to that, however, but it remains to be seen whether it would.