If Trump’s tariffs don’t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the “G2”/“Chimerica” scenario.
Trump is hellbent on destroying anyone's rise, not only to power, but to independence and national sovereignty. They are all "enemies" of the US and the US Dollar. His own words. China, India, Africans and Asians will not be bullied into submission as was the EU under von der Leyen. Ya think the rest of the world wants to go that route? I don't have a crystal ball, but given Trump's eating habits, stress, rage and anger, he might not live out the next three years of his regime.
Jasmine, have you noticed how JD Vance has kinda disappeared lately? They claim he's travelling across the country to sell "The Great Big Beautiful Bill." One could also think that he's distancing himself from Trump, both in the short term and long term. Should Trump succumb, JD would not present such a polarizing and comic figure. He would, nevertheless, continue the same US pursuit of hegemony. Long term, he's the obvious Republican heir apparent IF he doesn't screw up. Not much would change in US foreign policy, the world would just be spared the tragic comedy show on a daily basis.
During Biden’s first year, I would have bet the farm that he would not make it to January, 2025, but he did. POTUS has the best medical care in the world. Add to that Trump’s well-known germophobia, and about the only thing that could bring him down is assassination or his COVID shots.
Trump is behaving so badly with India that he has revealed himself to be far more ignorant than supposed. No way can any Indian govt pander to this crass behaviour
We'll see. I'd really like to see that. I'm so ashamed since 17 years to see France lay down like a whore at each command of USA, Germany or oligarchy.
What are doing Poutine and russian people is amazing and make me believe in humanity.
China and India must show if they deserve respect and even admiration too.
Trump has 3.5years left of his Whitehouse tenancy and there is little sign yet that his style of "diplomacy" will be continued thereafter. Meanwhile India continues to take a middle path that is based primarily on preserving Indian sovereignty, stability, and dignity with regard to its international relations. Actually it is nobodys' business who India choose to buy its oil from except India and the oil marketer so Trumps' pomposity is all sizzle and no sausage.
Whatever happens between the US and India, I doubt that G2/Chimerica will become a scenario any time soon. The issue is certainly not that China is not big enough, its economy not big enough, or its manufacturing capacity not big enough. The issue is leadership. Before we truly reach a multipolar world, we will go through a dual-power stage first: US-Russia. China will have better days when it has a better political culture to allow good and competent people to bubble to the top. That scenario did happen many times in the past in Chinese history. The people and the economy can remain more or less the same, but a few key figures at the top can make the difference between good and pure magic. That day still seems at least a few years away in the best of the situation.
The US 28th Infantry Division was based on the Pennsylvania National Guard. After the US mobilization for WW2, the 28th ID had been through multiple reviews and it failed repeatedly. general Marshal sent at least four personal picks to be the division commanders trying to straighten it up. The last one was general Omar Bradley, and he finally got the 28th ID to win a passing mark. By the end of the Normandy battles, Germany launched a big counterstrike at Mortain. The US obtained a warning through ULTRA decryption, but kept the 28th ID in the dark. 28th ID was holding the bottom of a bag and suffered major blows and retreated, but the division did not break. Once German momentum was judged to be spent, a much larger force at the mouth of the bag started to tighten and swallowed the bulk of German forces in Normandy.
Most people know 101st Airborne holding Bastogne and the story of "Nuts!" but not many people know which units hold the German force with a much larger superiority in infantry, armor, guns, etc. for long enough time to allow 101st AB to reach Bastogne and prepare a defense. The worst force contrast happened to the zone of 28th ID with two of its forward infantry regiments virtually grounded to powder. Yet various American units, 28th ID included, bought enough time to slow down the much larger German force and allowed the US high command to move various reserve units forward. By the time German Southern force decided to bypass Bastogne (still a couple of days before "Nuts!") the strategic level failure of German operations had been pinned down. How can a poorly rated division at the beginning eventually become a solid cornerstone for the final victory? I say, leadership and the transformation brought in by the leadership.
I think that China rulers showed very very very high performances those 30 last years and are creating today's the world of tomorrow .
Look at the consumption of energy by humankind since 1000 years, it's amazing. You have a first leap at the beginning of the industrial era. Then you have a regular and strong evolution. But since 10 years, it's amazing, china alone use ten time more energy than all humankind in year 2000.
And China is the big and crushing leader in renewable energies which are less expensive that oil, gaz or coal in all the Big South.
Every year, Chinese Navy build the same tonnage that all the French fleet which is the second of NATO.
Now China is the most wealthy nation of the world in patrimony, has the more powerful computers of the planet, IA as good as USA, and crushing leader in robotised factories and a lot of thing.
30 years ago, nobody was able to imagine that. 15 years ago neither.
Ok, China is far from perfect but the work done is amazing and wonderful. Chinese people never been so happy in all their history.
Please, as we say in France, don't throw the baby with the water of the bath.
Concerning the battle of the bulge, it's funny to see that this tiny tiny battle in front of History is the biggest that US army did alone out of frontiers in all its History. And those jokers want to give lessons to Russians and imagine that they have the best army of the history of the galaxy. Funny
Concerning the behaviour of a troop under fire, nobody can say before beginning of war what troops will hold on and what troops will cry their mother. No-bo-dy.
Handsome bodybuilders with white teeth and high tech equipment with roaring names ( marines, SAS, commandos, Legionnaires, Seals) proved recently they were not so strong in front of Vietnamese,Houthis or Afghan miserable guerilleros in sandals with old Kalash.
Concerning officers, it's worst. Remember that, in the 4 fist months of WW1, Joffre, french general in chief dismissed ...160 french generals(160!!!) for insufficiency and hundreds of colonels and Majors.
There is a joke: Everybody is trying to train Robots to behave more human-like, but only China can train humans to behave like robots.
Do not get blinded by superficial appearances. China started its industrial buildup in 1930s when Communists were much closer to bandits than land reformists. The improvement in China's industry was large enough to trigger the Japanese Empire to move forward with their timetable and launch the invasion of China before they were ready. Were the Chinese smart enough to fight against the Communist forces during the Chinese Civil War, China's achievement would have been far better.
India considers its sovereignty paramount, even more important, significant and valuable than economic growth.
When forced to choose between sovereignty/independence and wealth, we will gladly endure another one hundred years of abject poverty if needed, but we will not bend the knee.
Indians don't want superpowerdom. They want independence - they have seen foreign rule for thousands and thousands of years, invaded by the turks, persians, arabs, central asians, mongols, timurids, and every western european powers.
The Indian sense of civilisation is not understood by many (similar to the Russian Dusha)
Deep state America is indeed powerful: Trump admin is just vaneer and bluff.
I'm sure their NGO s across India are preparing for the next election and further silliness to try n take some semblance of vassel policy n control.
Whether cleaver Indians in respective ministries have balls to take on the US in all its manifestations .. that will be the tell: so, next 1-2 yes we'll see..
This is a sharp analysis of the complex US-India-China dynamics. Tariffs seem less about trade and more about geopolitics—pushing India into a tough spot between US pressure and China’s influence.
Trump is hellbent on destroying anyone's rise, not only to power, but to independence and national sovereignty. They are all "enemies" of the US and the US Dollar. His own words. China, India, Africans and Asians will not be bullied into submission as was the EU under von der Leyen. Ya think the rest of the world wants to go that route? I don't have a crystal ball, but given Trump's eating habits, stress, rage and anger, he might not live out the next three years of his regime.
🤞🏻 Though I don't think Vance will be any better 😕
Jasmine, have you noticed how JD Vance has kinda disappeared lately? They claim he's travelling across the country to sell "The Great Big Beautiful Bill." One could also think that he's distancing himself from Trump, both in the short term and long term. Should Trump succumb, JD would not present such a polarizing and comic figure. He would, nevertheless, continue the same US pursuit of hegemony. Long term, he's the obvious Republican heir apparent IF he doesn't screw up. Not much would change in US foreign policy, the world would just be spared the tragic comedy show on a daily basis.
I have🧐🤔 Agreed. Exactly. Yep.
During Biden’s first year, I would have bet the farm that he would not make it to January, 2025, but he did. POTUS has the best medical care in the world. Add to that Trump’s well-known germophobia, and about the only thing that could bring him down is assassination or his COVID shots.
What the fuck are "the shadows of the Cabal"?
Well, if India wants to be a great power, the time has now come to prove that it indeed is.
India is under no compulsion to prove anything to anybody.
India doesn't want to be a great power, it wants to be sovereign.
The Indian quest for sovereignty is mistaken for a desire to be a 'great power', but that is not what we want or desire or aim for.
Thank you for the clarification.
Trump is behaving so badly with India that he has revealed himself to be far more ignorant than supposed. No way can any Indian govt pander to this crass behaviour
Ho yes it can.
Already did, governments of: Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Japan,Vietnam, UE, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland, and others.
None of which are a “pole” in our multipolar world. India, China, and Russia are not going to cower and capitulate to Trump’s tantrums.
We'll see. I'd really like to see that. I'm so ashamed since 17 years to see France lay down like a whore at each command of USA, Germany or oligarchy.
What are doing Poutine and russian people is amazing and make me believe in humanity.
China and India must show if they deserve respect and even admiration too.
I have doubts. But I'm a tired low faith man. :)
Trump has 3.5years left of his Whitehouse tenancy and there is little sign yet that his style of "diplomacy" will be continued thereafter. Meanwhile India continues to take a middle path that is based primarily on preserving Indian sovereignty, stability, and dignity with regard to its international relations. Actually it is nobodys' business who India choose to buy its oil from except India and the oil marketer so Trumps' pomposity is all sizzle and no sausage.
Thank you Andrew. It would be great.
If India challenges USA, I'll never say again that it's a big fat turkey and I will respect her with a new eye .
Whatever happens between the US and India, I doubt that G2/Chimerica will become a scenario any time soon. The issue is certainly not that China is not big enough, its economy not big enough, or its manufacturing capacity not big enough. The issue is leadership. Before we truly reach a multipolar world, we will go through a dual-power stage first: US-Russia. China will have better days when it has a better political culture to allow good and competent people to bubble to the top. That scenario did happen many times in the past in Chinese history. The people and the economy can remain more or less the same, but a few key figures at the top can make the difference between good and pure magic. That day still seems at least a few years away in the best of the situation.
The US 28th Infantry Division was based on the Pennsylvania National Guard. After the US mobilization for WW2, the 28th ID had been through multiple reviews and it failed repeatedly. general Marshal sent at least four personal picks to be the division commanders trying to straighten it up. The last one was general Omar Bradley, and he finally got the 28th ID to win a passing mark. By the end of the Normandy battles, Germany launched a big counterstrike at Mortain. The US obtained a warning through ULTRA decryption, but kept the 28th ID in the dark. 28th ID was holding the bottom of a bag and suffered major blows and retreated, but the division did not break. Once German momentum was judged to be spent, a much larger force at the mouth of the bag started to tighten and swallowed the bulk of German forces in Normandy.
Most people know 101st Airborne holding Bastogne and the story of "Nuts!" but not many people know which units hold the German force with a much larger superiority in infantry, armor, guns, etc. for long enough time to allow 101st AB to reach Bastogne and prepare a defense. The worst force contrast happened to the zone of 28th ID with two of its forward infantry regiments virtually grounded to powder. Yet various American units, 28th ID included, bought enough time to slow down the much larger German force and allowed the US high command to move various reserve units forward. By the time German Southern force decided to bypass Bastogne (still a couple of days before "Nuts!") the strategic level failure of German operations had been pinned down. How can a poorly rated division at the beginning eventually become a solid cornerstone for the final victory? I say, leadership and the transformation brought in by the leadership.
You're harsh with China.
I think that China rulers showed very very very high performances those 30 last years and are creating today's the world of tomorrow .
Look at the consumption of energy by humankind since 1000 years, it's amazing. You have a first leap at the beginning of the industrial era. Then you have a regular and strong evolution. But since 10 years, it's amazing, china alone use ten time more energy than all humankind in year 2000.
And China is the big and crushing leader in renewable energies which are less expensive that oil, gaz or coal in all the Big South.
Every year, Chinese Navy build the same tonnage that all the French fleet which is the second of NATO.
Now China is the most wealthy nation of the world in patrimony, has the more powerful computers of the planet, IA as good as USA, and crushing leader in robotised factories and a lot of thing.
30 years ago, nobody was able to imagine that. 15 years ago neither.
Ok, China is far from perfect but the work done is amazing and wonderful. Chinese people never been so happy in all their history.
Please, as we say in France, don't throw the baby with the water of the bath.
Concerning the battle of the bulge, it's funny to see that this tiny tiny battle in front of History is the biggest that US army did alone out of frontiers in all its History. And those jokers want to give lessons to Russians and imagine that they have the best army of the history of the galaxy. Funny
Concerning the behaviour of a troop under fire, nobody can say before beginning of war what troops will hold on and what troops will cry their mother. No-bo-dy.
Handsome bodybuilders with white teeth and high tech equipment with roaring names ( marines, SAS, commandos, Legionnaires, Seals) proved recently they were not so strong in front of Vietnamese,Houthis or Afghan miserable guerilleros in sandals with old Kalash.
Concerning officers, it's worst. Remember that, in the 4 fist months of WW1, Joffre, french general in chief dismissed ...160 french generals(160!!!) for insufficiency and hundreds of colonels and Majors.
You don't know before.
There is a joke: Everybody is trying to train Robots to behave more human-like, but only China can train humans to behave like robots.
Do not get blinded by superficial appearances. China started its industrial buildup in 1930s when Communists were much closer to bandits than land reformists. The improvement in China's industry was large enough to trigger the Japanese Empire to move forward with their timetable and launch the invasion of China before they were ready. Were the Chinese smart enough to fight against the Communist forces during the Chinese Civil War, China's achievement would have been far better.
It's your right to think that and I respect it but I don't agree at all. Your hate of communism obscures your vision of History.
India considers its sovereignty paramount, even more important, significant and valuable than economic growth.
When forced to choose between sovereignty/independence and wealth, we will gladly endure another one hundred years of abject poverty if needed, but we will not bend the knee.
Indians don't want superpowerdom. They want independence - they have seen foreign rule for thousands and thousands of years, invaded by the turks, persians, arabs, central asians, mongols, timurids, and every western european powers.
The Indian sense of civilisation is not understood by many (similar to the Russian Dusha)
Deep state America is indeed powerful: Trump admin is just vaneer and bluff.
I'm sure their NGO s across India are preparing for the next election and further silliness to try n take some semblance of vassel policy n control.
Whether cleaver Indians in respective ministries have balls to take on the US in all its manifestations .. that will be the tell: so, next 1-2 yes we'll see..
https://open.substack.com/pub/xnfsx123/p/the-1-trillion-opportunity-why-the?r=52tcsj&utm_medium=ios
US finally ready to dump whatever QUAD it had visioned.
Trumplestiltskins the hateful.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thiagodearagao/p/top-5-non-obvious-symmetries-between?r=2di31u&utm_medium=ios
mutTrump won't be able to do it...
This is a sharp analysis of the complex US-India-China dynamics. Tariffs seem less about trade and more about geopolitics—pushing India into a tough spot between US pressure and China’s influence.
Ok, today I bet that India is already laying like a slut in heat in front of a contemptuous american master.
Modi has no proudness. He spent his time in letting India insulted by USA and he run up again to rub to Trump leg. Disgusting.
India gave up all possibilities to become a major.
Conducted a benefit vs. cost analysis for Trump on maintaining India as a strategic economic partner:
https://open.substack.com/pub/xnfsx123/p/the-1-trillion-opportunity-why-the?r=52tcsj&utm_medium=ios