Trump’s Chabahar Sanctions Waiver Revocation & Bagram Airbase Talk Pile Pressure On India

The US decided that India’s rise as a Great Power must be derailed and it’ll pursue this by all possible means.

Trump finally went through with February’s threat to rescind his first term’s sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port that was promulgated to help India aid Afghanistan’s reconstruction. That facility is partially run by India, which relies on it as the North-South Transport Corridor’s point of entry for connecting with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Russia. The US was hitherto pleased with India’s thrust into the CARs, however, since it was considered a gentle means of balancing Chinese influence.

Those calculations have since changed as a result of Trump’s fury at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to emulate the EU’s lopsided trade deal with the US by removing all or at least most tariffs on American imports. Revoking this waiver is meant to put India in a strategic dilemma. It can either defy the US’ anti-Iranian sanctions at the cost of secondary sanctions on top of the 50% tariffs he already imposed or comply with them at the expense of ceding influence in the CARs to China.

Coming amidst the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement, the US’ goal appears to be to exacerbate Indian hawks’ threat assessment of China in the hopes that they’ll then persuade their leadership to capitulate to its demands, which would turn India into the US’ largest-ever vassal state. In parallel, Trump recently reaffirmed his goal of returning US troops to Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase, which would reshape South Asian geopolitics by restoring Pakistan’s position as the US’ top regional ally due to its facilitation of this.

These back-to-back moves discomfit India and conform to fears that the US is hellbent on derailing its rise as a Great Power. The Chabahar sanctions waiver revocation could be a followed by the revocation of its S-400 sanctions waiver, some worry, while Pakistan’s restoration of its traditional status as the US’ top regional ally could see it purchase state-of-the-art American arms paid for by their shared Saudi ally. These credible scenarios could intensify the US’ attempted containment of India if they materialize.

Even if India capitulated to American demands to essentially become its largest-ever vassal state, however, the US-Pak rapprochement would probably remain on track since both have an interest in re-establishing their influence over Afghanistan. Returning troops to Bagram Airbase would enable the US to simultaneously threaten Russia, China, and Iran, while Pakistan could connect with the new TRIPP Corridor to turbocharge their shared Turkish ally’s regional influence at those three’s expense.

This insight reduces the chances that India will give into the US’ blackmail, which were already low even before these latest developments since removing all or at least most tariffs on American imports – especially agricultural ones – would spike unemployment and inevitably lead to socio-political unrest. Likewise, dumping Russian oil and arms (the official pretexts for Trump’s 50% tariffs) would make India dependent on the US, which could then “sell it out” to China as part of a “G2”/“Chimerica” grand deal.

The US is therefore expected to continue trying to subordinate India as a vassal. Whether it capitulates or resists, the outcome will be the same, and it’s that the US-Pak rapprochement would remain on track in order to tighten the containment noose around India all while all efforts are made to destabilize it from within by exploiting displeasure over the economy to provoke socio-political unrest. The US decided that India’s rise as a Great Power must be derailed and it’ll pursue this by all possible means.