Trump’s Disbanding Of A Secret “Deep State” Working Group Raises Hopes Of Peace With Russia

Its inter-agency members sought to sabotage the Russian-US rapprochement.

Reuters reported in mid-June that the Trump Administration had recently disbanded a secret inter-agency working group overseen by now-dismissed National Security Council members tasked with formulating strategies for coercing Russia into concessions to Ukraine. According to their three unnamed US official sources, Trump’s hitherto refusal to escalate American involvement in the conflict led to this initiative losing steam, though he could still potentially reverse gears in the future.

At any rate, what’s most significant about Reuters’ report is that it confirms that a secret group of officials from the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) was set up to manipulate Trump into pressuring Russia, which could have worsened tensions had it succeeded. Just as significantly, however, was its failure to do so thus far. Nevertheless, the plans that they devised could still be implemented by subversive deep state elements and therein lies the problem.

According to Reuters, “Ideas ranged from tailored economic deals designed to peel some countries out of Russia's geopolitical orbit to covert special operations efforts”, the first scenario of which included a proposal to “incentivize” Kazakhstan into cracking down on Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions. That country has been drifting Westward for some time already, which could pose challenges for Russia and China as explained here in summer 2023, but it doesn’t appear that anything came from that scheme.

The second scenario, however, might have speculatively been connected to Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against Russia in early June. No one can say for certain whether or not Trump knew about this in advance, but Reuters’ revelation about the existence of this previously unreported “deep state” working group lends credence to those of his supporters who claimed that he didn’t. After all, it’s entirely possible that this was orchestrated by them without his knowledge, which he might have told Putin.

There’s also the possibility that these “covert special operations efforts” included the two false flag plots in the Baltic Sea that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service recently warned about. Although they claimed that these are joint British-Ukrainian efforts, it can’t be ruled out that the aforementioned subversive “deep state” elements within that working group could have either played a role in their planning and/or might have had a detailed plan ready for pressuring Trump into escalating against Russia afterwards.

This secret “deep state” inter-agency working group’s disbandment therefore raises hopes of peace with Russia and might partially account for the Trump Administration’s latest pragmatism towards it. The Secretary of Defense recently announced that aid for Ukraine will be slashed in the next budget while the Secretary of the Treasury warned against new anti-Russian sanctions. Trump then opposed more such sanctions at the G7, blocked efforts to lower the Russian oil price cap, and stood up Zelensky.

While it’s premature to celebrate the preceding moves since Trump could always flip-flop on his own or be manipulated into escalating, they’re nevertheless positive developments for peace. It remains to be seen whether he’ll stay the course, but what’s important is that he’s back to his pragmatic approach that was briefly disrupted by a period of angry posts about Putin. The best-case scenario is that he proudly defies the “deep state” by finally coercing Ukraine into Russia’s demanded concessions for peace.