The EU would plunge into a full-blown recession if it complied, but that might be what Trump wants so as to bankrupt its companies and thus give US ones a greater edge in the newly tariff-free EU market.
"Scenario 1) the EU complies by crashing its own economy in exchange for the US escalating its involvement in the conflict"
I'm afraid that this is the most plausible scenario. Our European alphas are so obsessed with the chimerical Russian threat that nothing else seems to matter anymore.
These are not 'European alphas'. These are village idiots and clowns bought by the pound by the American deep state. Ursula and Kallas are prime examples.
"These concerns make it difficult to conclude exactly what Trump’s motives are...", "there are three plausible scenarios...", "the coming weeks will clarify Trump’s evolving policy...".
One of the greatest values of the analyses by AK is that, in a world where so many self-professed geopolitical analyst always know it all, he honestly admits that he doesn't and cannot predict the future with a crystal ball!
I think that Trump is bluffing in order to resist pressure from committed supporters of Project Ukraine like Lindsey Graham. He knows that it would be suicidal for EU to accept a complete embargo on Russian hydrocarbons and enact huge tariffs on India and China, even while it is led by spineless creatures like Macron, Starmer and Merz. At least, I hope so.
So I heard Russia has started targeting military cargo planes of NATO arriving in Western Ukraine for weapons delivery. I guess American planes will not be used, but other NATO countries will see their cargo planes destroyed if they cannot offload quickly. Next will be attacking the trains from Poland and Romania. The West can prick as much as they want, Russia should respond with heavier hammer faster.
At every stage of this war we have heard that escalation is foolish, reckless, unpopular and will lead to disaster. The West escalates anyway.
Hell, the eu is foaming at the mouth for NATO to get directly and actively involved in a hot war. What does Trump think that would do to eu purchases of Russian oil?
If Trump doesn't want to buy Russian oil then thats his business. If other countries want to buy Russian oil then thats their business, not his. Similarly he can tariff Russia and China to Hell and back and that is his business also. Meanwhile Australia has improving relations and significant trade with both China, Indonesia and India so we will attend to our business, thank you.
Lol, I wondered where you're going with the first two sentences but you nailed it with the last one by going in the direction which is both totally unexpected and hilarious at the same time.
Alas, I think that either UE or whatever european country, have no more the strength to resist to USA. Even European will is broken.
European countries, especially UK, France and Germany are ruled by oligarchs which only think to their immediate money and their status of new aristocrats. Macron, Merz and the english moron are just minions. No more strategic vision for states and nations, just the immediate interest of oligarchy and the rapacity of a clergy of eunuchs( politics, médias , officials).
And european oligarchy have even more interest in or with USA than in Europe.
Clergy of eunuchs is just frighten but people and is obsessed by tightening the necklace to avoid ending up impaled in public place.
I often urge people to open their eyes to the larger image and in this case this is truly necessary. The sword Trump is swinging over Europe is a double-edged instrument. On the one hand if fossil fuel prices are forced even higher EU economies will start shrinking just like in Germany. At the same time, decimating Chinese – EU economic exchange would be another blow to the EU nations. I think this is what Trump is truly driving for, following the instructions of his handlers. Europe is pushed toward a self-destructive path: War with Ukraine and/or economic collapse. The process and the underlying logic clearly resembles the deprivation and starvation deaths measured out by Stalin and his Judeo-Bolshevik hordes during the 1920 to 1930s period in the Soviet Union.
Ok, it seem you learned history with Hollywood product or reader digest.
You know the main reason of sovietic starvation in 30's?
Staline knew that without being a great industrial country, USSR would be destroyed. So he decided to build a huge siderurgic and metallurgic capacity. For that, he asked mainly to british a french industrials.
French and British, and others, build douzains of factories in USSR.
To pay that, USSR had nothing. About wheat. There was a brillant Swedish bizness man who proposed to pay those factories with wheat.
And Staline requisitioned wheat, in Ukraine, in Russia, everywhere in USSR to offer an industry to his country.
It's monstrous, cynical, crazy.
But it this industry that build the 120000 tanks, the 160000 howitzer, the 80000 planes that finally crushed the nazi beast.
Without that, all Europe would still live as slave of the German Nazis.
And it's not USA alone , with which could have destroy Hitler army .
Excuse me sir, but your comparison with sovietic starvation is totally inept.
And your use of the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes", especially in speaking of Staline, disqualified you. For reminds, it was the favourite expression of european nazis to speak about USSR. Kind of expression that made 40 millions deads in Europe.
Hello mr. Darras. With all respect, but if you have problems with the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes" I recommend you to read Solzhenitsyn's "Two Hundred Years Together" about the history of the Jews in Russia. It has been translated in French and German. Not in English.
On the other hand, it is true that in the second part of Stalin's rule, during and after the war, the dominant role of the Jews in Russia was brought to an end - to their great chagrin. That's the reason why some American Jews with ancestors in Russia hate Russia so much. Think of Victoria Nuland, for instance.
I've read Soljenitsyne, Une Journée d'Yvan Denisovitch, not good, boring. L'Archipel du Goulag, much more interesting in describing the process of totalitarianism ( and not only communist) : "who, what kind of people, where, how and how avoid the trap". But really bad written.
He probably spoke of the history of Jews in russian empire,, and the importance of Jew people in the October revolution, their important presence aming the apparatchiks and especially the terrible Tcheka, but, first I've never read him using the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes", which is a typical and pavlovian nazi expression. The favorite expression of Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels and their fans in occupied Europe( French too) to speak about Russia.
Second, Staline made a end to internationalism and refocus on nationalism, so jews lost a lot of power and position.
But the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes" is the kind of expression that qualify much more those who use it that those it is supposed to describe.
If you say "negro", I know you're a racist, if you say "fagett" I know you are homophobe, if you say "judeo bolchevik hordes" ,I think you have some sympathy for Nazism.
Third.
The comparison between holomodor and the current situation is irrelevant
For a "weak, stupid and easily manipulated", he's not doing bad at all. Glass half full, we'd have a major world war by now if Avatar or Camelface or Hilary "blood on hands" Clinton were at the US helm. So far, better than any other realistic proposition.
.
PS
He learned how to resist urges from stroking his ego and streetwise mob are hard to mousetrap.
Inconvenient observations are often mislabelled as "excuses"
> once the rockets fly.
I said "so far".
This does not exclude a possibility that rockets will (or will not) fly in the future, it claims that we'd already have "rockets fly" in every other hypothetical scenario.
"This does not exclude a possibility that rockets will (or will not) fly in the future, it claims that we'd already have "rockets fly" in every other hypothetical scenario."
A prime example of you assuming facts not in evidence in order to justify Trump.
"Scenario 1) the EU complies by crashing its own economy in exchange for the US escalating its involvement in the conflict"
I'm afraid that this is the most plausible scenario. Our European alphas are so obsessed with the chimerical Russian threat that nothing else seems to matter anymore.
These are not 'European alphas'. These are village idiots and clowns bought by the pound by the American deep state. Ursula and Kallas are prime examples.
That makes sense. It would explain their strange behaviour. I cannot help thinking of certain German politicians of the past and the present as well.
"These concerns make it difficult to conclude exactly what Trump’s motives are...", "there are three plausible scenarios...", "the coming weeks will clarify Trump’s evolving policy...".
One of the greatest values of the analyses by AK is that, in a world where so many self-professed geopolitical analyst always know it all, he honestly admits that he doesn't and cannot predict the future with a crystal ball!
Great work, thank you Andrew!
I think that Trump is bluffing in order to resist pressure from committed supporters of Project Ukraine like Lindsey Graham. He knows that it would be suicidal for EU to accept a complete embargo on Russian hydrocarbons and enact huge tariffs on India and China, even while it is led by spineless creatures like Macron, Starmer and Merz. At least, I hope so.
They will call Trump's bluff. What does Trump think the war they've been calling for will do to deliveries of oil from Russia?
3 is the correct answer.
Trump's proposal just goes to prove that there is no difference between NATO and the E.U.
Ukraine cannot be allowed in the E.U. since it would give Ukraine, and the Ukrainian NAZI's the opportunity to continue their fight against Russia.
The E.U. is no longer an economic trading bloc.
So I heard Russia has started targeting military cargo planes of NATO arriving in Western Ukraine for weapons delivery. I guess American planes will not be used, but other NATO countries will see their cargo planes destroyed if they cannot offload quickly. Next will be attacking the trains from Poland and Romania. The West can prick as much as they want, Russia should respond with heavier hammer faster.
At every stage of this war we have heard that escalation is foolish, reckless, unpopular and will lead to disaster. The West escalates anyway.
Hell, the eu is foaming at the mouth for NATO to get directly and actively involved in a hot war. What does Trump think that would do to eu purchases of Russian oil?
If Trump doesn't want to buy Russian oil then thats his business. If other countries want to buy Russian oil then thats their business, not his. Similarly he can tariff Russia and China to Hell and back and that is his business also. Meanwhile Australia has improving relations and significant trade with both China, Indonesia and India so we will attend to our business, thank you.
Lol, I wondered where you're going with the first two sentences but you nailed it with the last one by going in the direction which is both totally unexpected and hilarious at the same time.
Alas, I think that either UE or whatever european country, have no more the strength to resist to USA. Even European will is broken.
European countries, especially UK, France and Germany are ruled by oligarchs which only think to their immediate money and their status of new aristocrats. Macron, Merz and the english moron are just minions. No more strategic vision for states and nations, just the immediate interest of oligarchy and the rapacity of a clergy of eunuchs( politics, médias , officials).
And european oligarchy have even more interest in or with USA than in Europe.
Clergy of eunuchs is just frighten but people and is obsessed by tightening the necklace to avoid ending up impaled in public place.
I often urge people to open their eyes to the larger image and in this case this is truly necessary. The sword Trump is swinging over Europe is a double-edged instrument. On the one hand if fossil fuel prices are forced even higher EU economies will start shrinking just like in Germany. At the same time, decimating Chinese – EU economic exchange would be another blow to the EU nations. I think this is what Trump is truly driving for, following the instructions of his handlers. Europe is pushed toward a self-destructive path: War with Ukraine and/or economic collapse. The process and the underlying logic clearly resembles the deprivation and starvation deaths measured out by Stalin and his Judeo-Bolshevik hordes during the 1920 to 1930s period in the Soviet Union.
Ok, it seem you learned history with Hollywood product or reader digest.
You know the main reason of sovietic starvation in 30's?
Staline knew that without being a great industrial country, USSR would be destroyed. So he decided to build a huge siderurgic and metallurgic capacity. For that, he asked mainly to british a french industrials.
French and British, and others, build douzains of factories in USSR.
To pay that, USSR had nothing. About wheat. There was a brillant Swedish bizness man who proposed to pay those factories with wheat.
And Staline requisitioned wheat, in Ukraine, in Russia, everywhere in USSR to offer an industry to his country.
It's monstrous, cynical, crazy.
But it this industry that build the 120000 tanks, the 160000 howitzer, the 80000 planes that finally crushed the nazi beast.
Without that, all Europe would still live as slave of the German Nazis.
And it's not USA alone , with which could have destroy Hitler army .
Excuse me sir, but your comparison with sovietic starvation is totally inept.
And your use of the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes", especially in speaking of Staline, disqualified you. For reminds, it was the favourite expression of european nazis to speak about USSR. Kind of expression that made 40 millions deads in Europe.
Hello mr. Darras. With all respect, but if you have problems with the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes" I recommend you to read Solzhenitsyn's "Two Hundred Years Together" about the history of the Jews in Russia. It has been translated in French and German. Not in English.
On the other hand, it is true that in the second part of Stalin's rule, during and after the war, the dominant role of the Jews in Russia was brought to an end - to their great chagrin. That's the reason why some American Jews with ancestors in Russia hate Russia so much. Think of Victoria Nuland, for instance.
Thanks :)
I've read Soljenitsyne, Une Journée d'Yvan Denisovitch, not good, boring. L'Archipel du Goulag, much more interesting in describing the process of totalitarianism ( and not only communist) : "who, what kind of people, where, how and how avoid the trap". But really bad written.
He probably spoke of the history of Jews in russian empire,, and the importance of Jew people in the October revolution, their important presence aming the apparatchiks and especially the terrible Tcheka, but, first I've never read him using the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes", which is a typical and pavlovian nazi expression. The favorite expression of Hitler, Himmler, Goebbels and their fans in occupied Europe( French too) to speak about Russia.
Second, Staline made a end to internationalism and refocus on nationalism, so jews lost a lot of power and position.
But the expression "judeo-bolchevic hordes" is the kind of expression that qualify much more those who use it that those it is supposed to describe.
If you say "negro", I know you're a racist, if you say "fagett" I know you are homophobe, if you say "judeo bolchevik hordes" ,I think you have some sympathy for Nazism.
Third.
The comparison between holomodor and the current situation is irrelevant
Best regards
Ok, if we delete the word "hordes", we are on the same page.
Perhaps, but his admin just approved its first weapons package for Ukraine:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5506847-ukraine-receives-lethal-aid/
Conclusion: from now on it's Trump's war just as well.
Don't kid yourself. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. He will be mousetrapped into war.
For a "weak, stupid and easily manipulated", he's not doing bad at all. Glass half full, we'd have a major world war by now if Avatar or Camelface or Hilary "blood on hands" Clinton were at the US helm. So far, better than any other realistic proposition.
.
PS
He learned how to resist urges from stroking his ego and streetwise mob are hard to mousetrap.
You assume facts not in evidence. Anyway, your excuses won't matter once the rockets fly.
> You assume facts not in evidence.
Observations are not assumptions or 'excuses'.
Inconvenient observations are often mislabelled as "excuses"
> once the rockets fly.
I said "so far".
This does not exclude a possibility that rockets will (or will not) fly in the future, it claims that we'd already have "rockets fly" in every other hypothetical scenario.
"This does not exclude a possibility that rockets will (or will not) fly in the future, it claims that we'd already have "rockets fly" in every other hypothetical scenario."
A prime example of you assuming facts not in evidence in order to justify Trump.
If that's how you want to rename your TDS, so be it.
Others call it 'reasonable and logical probability'.