Turkiye’s Reportedly Proposed Military Pipeline To Romania Will Worsen Tensions With Russia

The Polish-led “cordon sanitaire” that’s taking shape along Russia’s western borders will connect with the Turkish-led one that’s poised to emerge along its southern borders, thus tightening NATO’s military-strategic encirclement of Russia per the “NATO 3.0” model.

Bloomberg reported that “Turkey Floats $1.2 Billion Fuel Pipeline to Eastern NATO Allies” for exclusive military use that it plans to unveil during the bloc’s summit in Ankara this summer. They didn’t mention where the fuel that Turkiye plans to send to Romania will come from, but it’s likely Azerbaijan. Of relevance, Azerbaijan entered into a de facto military alliance with Ukraine last month, which came less than half a year after its armed forces completed their conformation to NATO standards in November.

Shortly before Bloomberg’s report, it was observed that “The Russian Triad Is Now On The Same Page Regarding Southern-Emanating Threats From NATO”, all of which stem from the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’s” (TRIPP) role as the bloc’s military logistics corridor to the region. As explained here in early May, TRIPP arguably emboldened the Turkish Energy Ministry the month prior into reviving talk of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, which would bring Turkmen gas to Europe if built.

It’s relevant with respect to Turkiye’s reportedly proposed military pipeline since Azerbaijan is unlikely to be able to fulfill the bloc’s regional military fuel needs on its own, thus raising the chances that NATO accelerates the TRIPP-driven expansion of its influence along Russia’s southern periphery on this pretext. That would accordingly worsen Turkish-Russian tensions even more than the Vertical Gas Corridor via the Balkans was assessed as doing late last year here since Russia openly opposes this undersea pipeline.

Even if Turkiye’s military pipeline plans only extend as far as Azerbaijan, NATO is expected to entrench its influence there right on Russia’s southern border on the basis of securing these energy deposits that’ll by then partially fuel the bloc, which would make Moscow very uneasy. Equally concerning from Russia’s perspective is how this proposed project would complement Poland’s own envisaged US-backed regional energy role through its termination in Romania as the modern-day revival of the Nabucco Pipeline.

Turkiye via Azerbaijan through TRIPP would facilitate the supply of military fuel to the Balkans while Poland via US LNG would facilitate the supply of the same to Central Europe (Czechia, Slovakia, and possibly Hungary). Both Turkish- and Polish-centric pipeline plans could also extend to Ukraine. Turkiye and Poland are two of Russia’s oldest rivals, however, so closer coordination between them in supplying military fuel to NATO’s Eastern Flank could multiply strategic threats to Russia from this direction.

The Polish-led “cordon sanitaire” that’s taking shape along Russia’s western borders will connect with the Turkish-led one that’s poised to emerge along its southern borders, thus tightening NATO’s military-strategic encirclement of Russia per the “NATO 3.0” model presented at the end of this analysis here. Through these means, the US’ weaponization of energy geopolitics wouldn’t just hit the Kremlin’s coffers, but tangibly worsen threats to Russia’s national security as was earlier touched upon here.

The only realistic way to thwart these threats is to prevent Azeri participation in this pipeline, but since Ilham Aliyev is unlikely to be persuaded by Russian diplomacy, it’s unclear what means the Kremlin might consider resorting to instead. The most dramatic scenario is a special operation against this increasingly Ukrainian-like “shadow NATO” member, but that runs the risk of war with Azerbaijan’s mutual defense ally Turkiye, not to mention another protracted conflict. It’s therefore anyone’s guess what Putin will do.