Ukraine Is Presenting Itself As A Reliable Mercenary Force Against Russia In Africa

The WSJ’s piece makes it seem like the armed forces’ recent gains around the capital are the result of this secret Ukrainian intervention, which is intended to imbue policymakers with the notion that the US can successfully roll back speculative Russian influence in Africa by proxy so long as they keep funding Kiev.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported this week that “Ukraine Is Now Fighting Russia in Sudan”, which can be regarded as the follow-up to CNN’s report from last September about how “Ukraine’s special services ‘likely’ behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says”. According to their sources, Ukraine dispatched special forces there last summer to fight against Wagner’s local allies, during which time they also helped improve the armed forces’ drone and mining capabilities.

Most dramatically, however, is the claim that Ukraine helped evacuate Chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan from the capital of Khartoum to Port Sudan. None of what is written can be independently verified, but it wouldn’t be surprising if there’s some truth to their report. After all, by presenting itself as a reliable mercenary force against Russia in Africa, Ukraine likely hopes to keep the foreign aid spigot flowing indefinitely.

The West has turned now-rebranded Wagner into a bogeyman whose sole purpose in the narrative context is to justify more of their meddling across the continent, but they’re uncomfortable doing this directly at the level that’s required to contain Russia, ergo the need for a reliable proxy like Ukraine. The timing of the WSJ’s report comes amidst the Congressional deadlock over more aid for that country, thus hinting that the intent is to show policymakers that these funds are paying off in unexpected ways.

Their piece makes it seem like the armed forces’ recent gains around the capital are the result of this secret Ukrainian intervention, which is intended to imbue policymakers with the notion that the US can successfully roll back speculative Russian influence in Africa by proxy so long as they keep funding Kiev. Although the WSJ referenced the State Department’s warning to others not to intervene in this war, it’s obvious that Washington will turn a blind eye towards Kiev’s intervention, which it clearly approved.

This assessment is based on the claim that Sudan has been sending arms to Ukraine in secret this entire time that were paid for by its patrons, so it’s unimaginable that the US would suddenly turn against either of those two when they’re both advancing its interests vis-à-vis Russia. Khartoum is helping to relieve Kiev’s arms shortage, which is more severe than ever nowadays, while the latter is fighting as Washington’s proxy in that country against Moscow’s supposedly Wagner-backed local allies there.

If the aforesaid allegation is credible, then it would explain why Sudan has been giving Russia the runaround on their plans from 2020 to open up a naval base in Port Sudan, which prompted the recent proposal here for Russia to seek an alternative in nearby Somaliland instead. This would also add more context to why the US diplomatically intervened to negotiate ceasefires for the same conflict that it provoked since freezing it could lead to more arms being sent to Ukraine instead of staying inside Sudan.

Re-evaluating everything in light of this insight, it would appear in hindsight that Burhan did indeed bite the American media’s bait that his country’s conflict is supposedly due to Russian meddling, after which he later requested a Ukrainian special forces intervention out of desperation and then sold Kiev arms. This enabled him to keep the West on his side, thus making it more difficult for his opponents to topple his de facto military-led government and therefore giving him a chance to stay in power or at least alive.

His reactions were predictable, which is why they could even have been manipulated if American intelligence thought to “engineer” them in advance. In that case, the aforementioned media bait might not have been simple opportunism, but part of a sophisticated psychological influence operation aimed at getting him to secretly arm Ukraine on a false anti-Russian basis. Burhan kept up the charade by retaining cordial ties with Russia but now his double game has been exposed.

Moscow can either distance itself from Khartoum out of self-respect to signal displeasure with it arming Kiev or try to “win back” its wayward partner in some creative way, both policy options of which are independent of exploring whether Somaliland could host a naval base instead. Regardless of whatever Russia does, which should be respected by its supporters even if they disagree with the decision, its diplomats shouldn’t deceive themselves into thinking that ties will return to normal anytime soon.