If Poland “loses” the Baltic States to Ukraine, then it’ll slip into geostrategic irrelevancy after the conflict ends, especially since the US would then consider Ukraine to be the most promising regional leader instead of Poland and accordingly privilege Kiev at Warsaw’s expense.
1. Take a step back. Pretend that Canada were to allow its territory to be used for drone attacks on the US. The American response would be brutal and immediate. Meanwhile, the Russian frog gets closer to boiling.
2. Poland's sole geostrategic relevance stems from its proximity to the West's chosen enemy.
I think Andrew is suggesting A, wih B already happening. C: would obvious result on a big hit on the Baltic idiot nation putting an end to Baltic warfare.
2. 230K troops and growing make Poland Jointly with Turkey very relevant. And with realistic plans to grow further.
Dude, Iran has been killing American soldiers since at least 2007 and we didn’t strike Iranian soil until 2025!! You go to war beyond your borders and it’s fair game!! The solution is obvious—don’t invade other countries!!
"If Poland “loses” the Baltic States to Ukraine, then it’ll slip into geostrategic irrelevancy after the conflict ends, especially since the US would then consider Ukraine to be the most promising regional leader instead of Poland and accordingly privilege Kiev at Warsaw’s expense."
After the conflict ends, Ukraine will require $trillions to reconstruct; but since no country in the West is exactly flooding with credit, me think it is inevitable Ukraine will remain a rump state, and be a regional leader of nothing but criminals, drugs and used arms dealers...
I also think Poland will remain in geostrategic irrelevancy irrespective. But that's another story.
Are we now at the stage where Ukraine is a significant challenge to Russia, could possibly last beyond the end of 2026, has troops, weapons and conscription options to continue?
News to me.
I thought the whole key of Ukraine's defence was
Slavyansk → Kramatorsk → Druzhkovka → Konstantinovka → Krasny Liman
40% gone in the last month.
You seem to be predicting based on a Ukrainian victory. I doubt any European country's military are planning for that - or any politician that expects to last longer than Starmer or Macron
Vyshneve explosion: facility did not belong to Ukraine's Armed Forces, General Staff says
A lot of weapons seem to be there - British French or German?
I really don't think it matters who supplies drones or missiles most will get blown up soon after arrival in Ukraine. Ukraine broke the rules of engagement and now Russia will hit civilian adjacent targets in a way it would not before.
Russia is in Ukraine…to end the war all Putin has to do is retreat to Russia. All Zelensky has to do is make Putin being in Ukraine not worth it for the Russian people. For most of the conflict Zelensky wanted a ceasefire along with Article 5 type guarantees from America but neither Biden nor Trump would provide Ukraine with that. So Zelensky had to come up with another tool to keep Putin from violating a ceasefire which is hopefully what striking Moscow will keep Putin to his word.
I hope your prediction will be the future though past precedence is not encouraging nor is the beliefs of the Kremlin that Trump is theirs and Russia's saviour.
I agree they can't trust Trump. But then I never thought Putin trusted Europe at the Minsk agreements or that anyone trusted the promises "not an inch further".
You look at the alternative - which is to challenge the bare face lie up front, and chose to move on. Price of dealing with west is knowing they can't keep their word.
In regards Minsk 1, 11 and Anchorage and deceit, Putin always says we were tricked. Can one believe that could possibly be true???
Many possible alternatives but no confirmations, but to have been dealing with Witkopf and Kushner and not paying brides is not believable in my opinion. Too much does not add up and no slicing or dicing makes it any clearer without nefarious covert desires by big Russian actors being very influential on proceedings.
The immediate future could show what the future holds but if reticence on the RFs part returns a la VVP then an each way bet is all one can suggest.
Does Putin say we were fooled, or they were dishonest. Seems a bit nuanced to me.
I'd also say that on German unification, Minsk 1&2 there was nothing to be gained in not signing or calling them out as liars at the time. Nor was there at Anchorage which was essentially a nothing deal giving Trump some background to say he hadn't just given up (when he rightly had)
I think you might be right, he actually says something like we were cheated not verbatim. I see it as being fooled and not wanting to see or believe the USreal is not agreement capable and its only goal is to destroy or balkanize Russia and knowing that means he was fooled. The whole Ukraine situation was thoroughly planned and premeditated over decades by the US etc yet the reticence of Putin is monumental and seems to be ongoing. Whether that will lead to a safe and secure Russia well??????? Who knows but I feel he is willing to compromise with the stated declared enemy and is seeking a deal that is illusive I believe and severely detrimental to the average Russian worker but positive for the oligarchs of his liking.
As I try to understand Andrew's perspective in his writings, I've come to believe he harbors a nostalgia for the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. Unlike those imagined glory days, the present reality is that, once again, Poland is being set up as the anti-Russia. Perhaps, one can recall the last time France and England promised Poland that they had their back. One should consider the most likely scenario in which NATO is removed from Ukraine and along with Belarus becomes part of a union state with Russia. The Polish comprador elite will find plenty of income potential while jeopardizing the safety and well being of Poles; their only real path to prosperity is thru peace, and that means neutrality, and an exit from Nuclear Armed Terrorist Organization.
As I suggested to someone else in this thread, please kindly refrain from speculating about my personal views. I've proven by credentials as a "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" from 2013 till today, stretching from the Russian MFA-run MGIMO (my alma mater where I received my MA and PhD) to Sputnik (2014-2019) to cooperation with various top think tanks here.
I was also falsely implicated in an absurd Russian "meddling" scandal in summer 2020:
I therefore don't need to prove anything to you all but two references to my personal views in a single thread and within less than an hour of each other is a too much and prompted me to clarify everything to stop more speculation. If you're going to continue being personal, then please quietly leave and go somewhere else. It's an instant block from now on.
My page is for discussing the subjects that I write about, not gossiping about me.
Please don't make assumptions about me. I'm analyzing everything according to how I personally understand it to be, not due to my personal views.
Since you're probably going to ask, I'd prefer that Russia's December 2021 requests to the US and NATO be implemented, namely in this case withdrawing all pre-1997 NATO members' troops and equipment from every country that joined afterwards:
Having clarified my personal views, which aren't anyone's business anyhow but your post was very obnoxious, I expect you to stop speculating about my views.
Also, just because you seem to be a bit confused, Elena, I don't do "wishful thinking".
If you're expecting my work to reflect solely what I wish reality would be, then please unsubscribe (you don't have to announce your departure) and look elsewhere for such material because you're not going to find it here.
I'm not going to accept any more speculation about my personal views. You've been warned.
I don't like your sarcasm when I asked you very nicely to stop speculating about my views, motives, etc., since this forum is for discussing the subjects that I write about, not gossiping about me as a person.
I regret having to block you, but if I don't enforce my community standards, then everything will ultimately spiral out of control and this forum will become indistinguishable from the cesspool that Twitter/X has become.
1. Take a step back. Pretend that Canada were to allow its territory to be used for drone attacks on the US. The American response would be brutal and immediate. Meanwhile, the Russian frog gets closer to boiling.
2. Poland's sole geostrategic relevance stems from its proximity to the West's chosen enemy.
three Drone options:
A: Build in Balts,
B: Allow to fly through Balts (and Poland)
C: Launch from Balts.
I think Andrew is suggesting A, wih B already happening. C: would obvious result on a big hit on the Baltic idiot nation putting an end to Baltic warfare.
2. 230K troops and growing make Poland Jointly with Turkey very relevant. And with realistic plans to grow further.
Indeed, this is all a competition to see who was the be the sucker nation.
C is already happening. 230K troops ain't gonna cut it.
Dude, Iran has been killing American soldiers since at least 2007 and we didn’t strike Iranian soil until 2025!! You go to war beyond your borders and it’s fair game!! The solution is obvious—don’t invade other countries!!
"If Poland “loses” the Baltic States to Ukraine, then it’ll slip into geostrategic irrelevancy after the conflict ends, especially since the US would then consider Ukraine to be the most promising regional leader instead of Poland and accordingly privilege Kiev at Warsaw’s expense."
After the conflict ends, Ukraine will require $trillions to reconstruct; but since no country in the West is exactly flooding with credit, me think it is inevitable Ukraine will remain a rump state, and be a regional leader of nothing but criminals, drugs and used arms dealers...
I also think Poland will remain in geostrategic irrelevancy irrespective. But that's another story.
"think it is inevitable Ukraine will remain a rump state, and be a regional leader of nothing but criminals, drugs and used arms dealers..."
and the only conceivable police force for such a threat to the EU is the Polish military.
This seems to me to be so obvious if entirely unspoken, that there must be plans along these or similar lines already at both EU and Nato.
" US would then consider Ukraine to be the most promising regional leader instead of Poland and accordingly privilege Kiev at Warsaw’s expense."
What exact "privileges" has Poland been getting up to this point ? None as far as I can tell.
I'm confused by this.
Are we now at the stage where Ukraine is a significant challenge to Russia, could possibly last beyond the end of 2026, has troops, weapons and conscription options to continue?
News to me.
I thought the whole key of Ukraine's defence was
Slavyansk → Kramatorsk → Druzhkovka → Konstantinovka → Krasny Liman
40% gone in the last month.
You seem to be predicting based on a Ukrainian victory. I doubt any European country's military are planning for that - or any politician that expects to last longer than Starmer or Macron
meanwhile - any thoughts on this:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/07/8042901/
Vyshneve explosion: facility did not belong to Ukraine's Armed Forces, General Staff says
A lot of weapons seem to be there - British French or German?
I really don't think it matters who supplies drones or missiles most will get blown up soon after arrival in Ukraine. Ukraine broke the rules of engagement and now Russia will hit civilian adjacent targets in a way it would not before.
Russia is in Ukraine…to end the war all Putin has to do is retreat to Russia. All Zelensky has to do is make Putin being in Ukraine not worth it for the Russian people. For most of the conflict Zelensky wanted a ceasefire along with Article 5 type guarantees from America but neither Biden nor Trump would provide Ukraine with that. So Zelensky had to come up with another tool to keep Putin from violating a ceasefire which is hopefully what striking Moscow will keep Putin to his word.
You think Russia is suffereing from this war but not Europe or Ukraine?
You are confusing a psyop on western voters to get more money for Ukraine with the situation on the ground where Ukraine is collapsing.
I hope your prediction will be the future though past precedence is not encouraging nor is the beliefs of the Kremlin that Trump is theirs and Russia's saviour.
I agree they can't trust Trump. But then I never thought Putin trusted Europe at the Minsk agreements or that anyone trusted the promises "not an inch further".
You look at the alternative - which is to challenge the bare face lie up front, and chose to move on. Price of dealing with west is knowing they can't keep their word.
In regards Minsk 1, 11 and Anchorage and deceit, Putin always says we were tricked. Can one believe that could possibly be true???
Many possible alternatives but no confirmations, but to have been dealing with Witkopf and Kushner and not paying brides is not believable in my opinion. Too much does not add up and no slicing or dicing makes it any clearer without nefarious covert desires by big Russian actors being very influential on proceedings.
The immediate future could show what the future holds but if reticence on the RFs part returns a la VVP then an each way bet is all one can suggest.
Does Putin say we were fooled, or they were dishonest. Seems a bit nuanced to me.
I'd also say that on German unification, Minsk 1&2 there was nothing to be gained in not signing or calling them out as liars at the time. Nor was there at Anchorage which was essentially a nothing deal giving Trump some background to say he hadn't just given up (when he rightly had)
I think you might be right, he actually says something like we were cheated not verbatim. I see it as being fooled and not wanting to see or believe the USreal is not agreement capable and its only goal is to destroy or balkanize Russia and knowing that means he was fooled. The whole Ukraine situation was thoroughly planned and premeditated over decades by the US etc yet the reticence of Putin is monumental and seems to be ongoing. Whether that will lead to a safe and secure Russia well??????? Who knows but I feel he is willing to compromise with the stated declared enemy and is seeking a deal that is illusive I believe and severely detrimental to the average Russian worker but positive for the oligarchs of his liking.
B.S.
Good plan by Ukraine. .KeepPoland where it belongs. Off by itself.
You support Banderites ?
As I try to understand Andrew's perspective in his writings, I've come to believe he harbors a nostalgia for the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. Unlike those imagined glory days, the present reality is that, once again, Poland is being set up as the anti-Russia. Perhaps, one can recall the last time France and England promised Poland that they had their back. One should consider the most likely scenario in which NATO is removed from Ukraine and along with Belarus becomes part of a union state with Russia. The Polish comprador elite will find plenty of income potential while jeopardizing the safety and well being of Poles; their only real path to prosperity is thru peace, and that means neutrality, and an exit from Nuclear Armed Terrorist Organization.
As I suggested to someone else in this thread, please kindly refrain from speculating about my personal views. I've proven by credentials as a "Non-Russian Pro-Russian" from 2013 till today, stretching from the Russian MFA-run MGIMO (my alma mater where I received my MA and PhD) to Sputnik (2014-2019) to cooperation with various top think tanks here.
I was also falsely implicated in an absurd Russian "meddling" scandal in summer 2020:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200813220031/http://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=1603
I therefore don't need to prove anything to you all but two references to my personal views in a single thread and within less than an hour of each other is a too much and prompted me to clarify everything to stop more speculation. If you're going to continue being personal, then please quietly leave and go somewhere else. It's an instant block from now on.
My page is for discussing the subjects that I write about, not gossiping about me.
Please don't make assumptions about me. I'm analyzing everything according to how I personally understand it to be, not due to my personal views.
Since you're probably going to ask, I'd prefer that Russia's December 2021 requests to the US and NATO be implemented, namely in this case withdrawing all pre-1997 NATO members' troops and equipment from every country that joined afterwards:
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en
Having clarified my personal views, which aren't anyone's business anyhow but your post was very obnoxious, I expect you to stop speculating about my views.
Also, just because you seem to be a bit confused, Elena, I don't do "wishful thinking".
If you're expecting my work to reflect solely what I wish reality would be, then please unsubscribe (you don't have to announce your departure) and look elsewhere for such material because you're not going to find it here.
I'm not going to accept any more speculation about my personal views. You've been warned.
I don't like your sarcasm when I asked you very nicely to stop speculating about my views, motives, etc., since this forum is for discussing the subjects that I write about, not gossiping about me as a person.
I regret having to block you, but if I don't enforce my community standards, then everything will ultimately spiral out of control and this forum will become indistinguishable from the cesspool that Twitter/X has become.