Ukrainian Mercenaries Were Caught Training Indian-Designated Terrorists In Drone Warfare

Whether this was done at the US’ behest or behind the US’ back remains to be determined, but there’s no doubt that this is an extremely unfriendly move, and it’s also very likely that Russia tipped India off.

Six Ukrainians and one American were just arrested in India on the grounds that they illegally crossed from there into neighboring Myanmar to train Indian-designated terrorists in drone warfare. For those who aren’t aware, Northeast India has historically been the scene of multiple ethno-separatist insurgencies since independence, and some of these groups now take refuge in war-torn Myanmar and train there. The most recent conflict to erupt was in Manipur in early 2023 and was reviewed here at the time.

Three factors are reshaping regional geopolitics. The most important one is the détente between India and the US brought about by their as-yet-unsigned trade deal after several years of tense ties under Biden and the first year of Trump 2.0. This is followed by Bangladesh’s post-Hasina “Pakistanization” after its US-backed coup in summer 2024 and then the latest round of Myanmar’s civil war in which the US is suspected of backing anti-government groups but also wants critical minerals from the junta too.

Accordingly, while the US is now on better terms with India, it’s still continuing to contain it through Bangladesh and might want India to allow its border regions to be used for arming anti-government groups in Myanmar for coercing the junta into a critical minerals deal. India is neutral in that war despite having pragmatic ties with the junta and many sympathizing with the unarmed members of the political opposition, however, so one hypothesis is that the US didn’t ask and is doing this behind India’s back.

If that’s the case, then Trump either signed off on it or his “deep state” is also going behind his own back as well, perhaps to unilaterally make progress on the geopolitical project that the former Bangladeshi leader warned about in early 2024 regarding the carving out of a Christian proxy state in the region. Either scenario would bode ill for their newfound détente, but there’s another one that should be considered too, and it’s that Ukraine is doing this on its own initiative without US approval.

Zelensky declared in late January that “Ukraine needs a dedicated, strong intelligence unit capable of operating abroad at a level comparable to the world’s best combat foreign intelligence agencies. Your perspective lies in external operations – not just influence, not just the collection of data or recruitment of agents, but real combat and other asymmetric operations that are essential to protecting Ukraine’s interests.” This follows Ukraine’s mercenary activity in Sudan and Mali that aligns with US interests.

Sometimes its mercenary activity goes against the US’ interests, however, such as with regard to Russia’s accusation that Ukraine has clandestinely partnered with Rwandan-backed rebels in that country’s conflict with the Congo whose resource-centric peace deal Trump brokered last year. This precedent suggests that it might have also gone behind the US’ back in India, likely for cash, or the US could throw Ukraine under the bus on this pretext after India busted what might have actually been a joint operation.

Hopefully the public will be updated about this investigation given the political importance of this case. At the very least, Ukraine was training Indian-designated terrorists in drone warfare, and possibly at the US’ behest. It’s also likely that India was tipped off by Russia, which closely monitors all Ukrainian mercenary activity, thus further debunking the viral claim that Russia believes that India “betrayed” it. The reality is that they’re working hand-in-hand to stop Ukrainian mercenaries in the region.