This outcome places the US on the path of restoring its unipolar hegemony via sequential lopsided trade deals as it likely sets its sights on the Americas next before finally taking on Asia.
Sound analysis as usual. I like to make the case for one step further: sack the EU leadership for gross incompetency.
The European Union finds itself at a critical juncture in global trade diplomacy. In the span of a few years, it has failed to finalize a key investment deal with China, surrendered critical leverage with the United States, and severed its most strategically advantageous trade relationship with Russia. Russia was not only a major energy supplier, but also the foundation of the EU’s profitable economic model—offering low-cost energy inputs, a significant export market, and, crucially, a competitive choice of trading partners that served as a counterweight to overdependence on any single global power. With three catastrophic economic miscalculations in rapid succession, confidence in the EU Commission’s competence has eroded. One could reasonably argue that such a record justifies calls for its dismissal on grounds of gross strategic and economic failure.
Read in detail on my substack article: Europe's Strategic Trade Crossroads: Between U.S. Dependency and Chinese Stalemate @ https://leonvermeulen.substack.com/
If they don't have the trust from most governments of member countries and EU parliament, they can be replaced in a min. The situation as is that they do enjoy such trust.
Sick. Don't agree that this restores US hegemony because the rest of the world will not cave in, and the US is on the verge of a total economic and political collapse. "The Americas" are already leaving the American sector, and the BRICS+ are solidifying their position as the future order of the world. Trump will singlehandedly destroy the USA, NATO and the EU in very short order. Perhaps then European countries will reclaim their sovereignty and self-respect and join BRICS.
Yep. It looks more and more that Michael Every' @Rabobank and @Zerohedge predictions are correct and that EU will collapse long before the USA. After all, what the current EU agreement shows is that EU can not triangulate vis-a-vis USA and Russia&China coalition.
Yep, it could be the EU first but it could be Japan or the US as well. I would put better odds on the EU like you mentioned. But to me the EU deal basically says the US is tired of subsidizing EU pensions while getting a free ride on defense. The EU is now going to pay as they don't have much of an alternative.
It's not so much pensions but the whole social welfare. That to a large extent goes to non-EU residents. Not that it much increases EU's economic firepower.
And I'm not alone seeing the USofA collapsing very soon. Top economists in the US and EU all warning of it, including CEO's of big US banks. Trump is a wrecking ball, the proverbial bull in the china shop! $37 Trillion debt and rising daily - never to be repaid; $1 Trillion plus just in interest; student debt is astronomical and can never be repaid; real living wage jobs are dwindling rapidly; inflation rising; food, gas and electric going up; unaffordable housing for millions; homeless increasing; drug and alcohol abuse rampant; societal unrest; political chaos and corruption. What else have I missed. Don't need a crystal ball to see this.
First of all I'm not saying what you're predicting is not going to happen. Second of all people have been making the same prediction for decades now. Will it happen tomorrow? 2050? Never? Will Japan collapse first? The UK? The EU? NATO? Will world leaders decide to start another world war to distract from/delay the collapse?
Hence the Yogi Berra quote.
Trump is many things to many people but one thing he didn't do is lose in this trade deal, exactly the opposite.
EU's particularly weak spot. Main US defect is their poor state of education - but that is remediable. On the other hand, they have more energy, minerals, cutting edge technology and better fertility rate.
Treasury yields are not a good indicator, because US pensions providers are forced to invest so much money for the older workers facing retirement. The yields on US stock are so low, pension funds are forced to invest in treasuries.
No, pension funds are not forced to invest in treasuries (they generally have to hold conservative investments, but not exclusively) not that it would matter with debt greater than GDP.
I don't mean they are forced by law. No - the reason they are "forced" is that treasuries have a safe price on which they will be redeemed in 3, 5, 10 or 20 years, depending on their duration. And in-between, their yearly interest coupons are also guaranteed. This is different from real-estate or from company stock. With company stock there is no redemption of capital in 7 years or so.
Liquidity is not everything. You need to take guaranteed capital flows into account. For example, a 10 year Treasury will be redeemed in 10 years with money guaranteed. On the other hand, no-one can (really) guarantee you a redemption price for Google or Netflix in 10 years time.
Obviously, you don't need to guarantee all of the projected outpayments for 2035. And of course, if there is a mass-inflation, it's reasonable to hold MORE capital in companies and real-estate and gold. But, as we have seen from Japan, sometimes you have 2+ decades of low inflation, while prices for shares and real-estate and gold retreat.
There surely is no guarantee the US will succeed but are you willing to bet against Trump right now? The trade imbalances are done. He has done what he set out to do. Congress passed stablecoin regulation which is growing faster than 100x per year and now the US isn’t reliant on the world buying its debt. Every bank will be issuing its own stablecoin. It must have 1:1 reserves for every coin it issues. This is going to be into the trillions. It’s actually hilarious as banks are funding their demise but that’s for another discussion. The money the US will make from tariffs have already given the US its first surplus in decades. We are the largest producer of energy for the world now. Game fucking over.
Dazu folgendes die Infos Zeitraum Juni - Juli 2025
EU Geld ausgaben 2025
Die EU-Kommission will mehr Geld. Auf 2 Billionen Euro beläuft sich der Entwurf für den Haushaltsfinanzrahmen von 2028 bis 2034.
EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen sagte der Ukraine weitere 2,3 Milliarden Euro zu.
"15 Prozent auf alles, der größte aller Deals" Waren Richtung USA umgedreht 0% +
Energieträger aus den USA im Wert von 750 Milliarden US-Dollar kaufen +
600 Milliarden US-Dollar Direktinvestionen mehr in die USA durch europ. besonders deutsche Unternehmen +
Zölle auf die Einfuhr von Stahl und Aluminium in die USA soll auch weiterhin der erhöhte Zollsatz von 50 Prozent gelten.
Bis zu 800 Milliarden Euro will EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen mobilisieren, um die Verteidigungsfähigkeit Europas zu stärken und gleichzeitig die Unterstützung für die Ukraine zu sichern.
Man fragt sich wo wollen die das Geld hernehmen und dann noch gegen Russland in den Krieg ziehen.
Ich gehe nach wie vor davon aus das die EU der Verarschte von seiten Trump ist und nicht die Atommacht Russland. Die Importe der USA aus Russland Stichwort Uran und Raketentriebwerke und andere wichtige Bodenschätze waren seitens der USA nie von Sanktionen betroffen.
What makes you so sure? At every escalation, the AMC assures us that escalation is reckless, unpopular, impossible, that NATO is out of everything from catnip to burrito coverings.
NATO escalates, anyway. They are betting that nuclear war is survivable, at least for the people who count, and besides, Russia doesn't have the stones.
Ich denke genau wie zu Zeiten des "Eisernen Vorhangs" wissen beide Seiten was ein Kriegsausbruch bedeutet.
Bsp. Ich war während meiner Zeit bei der NVA Nationale Volksarmee der DDR in einem Bereich eingebunden, bei dem ich auch begrenzten Zugang zu einer Information hatte, die mir die Augen öffnete.
Der Warschauer Vertrag Gegenstück zu Nato ging davon aus das im Falle des Angriffs der NATO die DDR verlsutig geht und die 1. tatsächliche Verteitigunglinie die deutsch polnische Grenze an Oder und Neiße steht. Mit anderen Worten man kalkulierte das in der 1 Welle die Natostreitkräfte das Gebiet der DDR überrannte und alle Menschen Opfer werden.
Heute hat sich die Grenze nach Osten verschoben und indirekt sehen wir mit umgedrehten Vorzeichen dasselbe in der Ukraine. Es ging und geht nicht um die Menschen, es geht um Land und seine Ressourcen.
Die Frage wird sein wer überlebt, Europa nicht soviel steht fest. Die USA ziehen sich bereits zurück wie ich oben darstellte, das heißt nicht das sie aufgeben, sie machen nur die Schlußrechnung unter den Marshallplan.
Da mit China und den BRICS ein Konkurent aufgetaucht ist, den man Jahre unterschätzt ja belächelt hat, ähnlich halt wie nach 1991 mit dem heutigen Russland, gilt es sich darauf zu konzentrieren und Europa besonders aber Deutschland als Machtfaktor auszuschalten bzw. klar zu machen wo ihr Platz ist.
Das glauben Sie nicht wirklich, oder? Trump hat einen Superdeal gemacht, er verkauft der EU/NATO die veralteten Waffen die immer noch Schaden anrichten können, aber in der modernen Kriegsführung ausgedient haben, das sind die Fakten die sich aus dem Ukraine Konflikt ergeben.
Die EU will Milliarden an die Ukraine zur Unterstützung geben.
Also hat Trump erst einmal dafür gesorgt das das Geld in 1. Linie über die Zölle in die USA fließt. Was dann noch übrig ist wird für die Waffenkäufe gebraucht.
Trump wird den Dollar und die US Wirtschaft stabilisieren wollen, deshalb auch seine Sprüche in Richtung BRICS.
Nächstes Jahr im Oktober Wahlen in Brasilien, heißt es danach nur noch RICZ ?
Gibt es vielleicht eine Absprache durch welche Kanäle auch immer zwischen RF/China und USA - frei nach dem Motto unser Hinterhof ihr haltet euch raus und wir uns aus eurem und was die EU betrifft die schalten wir aus damit sie weder uns noch euch gefährlich wird ?
Yep, my favorite idea was Russia gets Novorossiya whole plus Baltics out of the NATO, and the US gets Greenland and Iran. Maybe China gets Taiwan after TSMC relocates 75% of its cutting edge semiconductor production to the US.
Ich habe das tatsächlich eine Zeitlang getan, meine Antworten oder eigenen Überlegungen zu übersetzen. Aber ich verweise mal auf ein Ereignis.
Purin wird von einem deutschen Journalisten ich glaube englisch oder russisch eine Frage gestellt. Was macht Putin er fragt den Journalisten warum er nicht in seiner Landessprache spricht ob er nicht Stolz auf seine Muttersprache sei.
Dies hat bei mir eine Überlegung ausgelöst, auch wenn gemeinhin englisch als Weltsprache definiert ist, muß ich dies nicht für mich anwenden. Es regt mich in gewisser Weise schon auf wie die deutsche Sprache mit englischen Worten verhunzt wird.
Jedes Volk sollte seine Sprache pflegen, denn es gehört zu seiner Kultur.
und das es heute Programme gibt die Texte egal welcher Sprache automatisch übersetzt ist es so einfach über Sprachbarrieren hinweg zu kommunizieren.
Yes, sure. The main problem with google translate is that it stumbles with German multi-clause grammar. Also, because English has a very strict subject-verb-object structure and German doesn't, it sometimes makes mistakes at identifying German subjects and objects.
I think he was simply shy of using google translate to translate the German text into English. The problem is that German grammar is different from English Grammar and google translate has problems - AI LLM that it is - with the more complicated sentences Germans are so fond of.
Ich hatte mehrer Übersetzer ausprobiert, ins englische übersetzt und dann wieder ins deutsche, was dabei raus kam gefiel mir überhaupt nicht, weil es den Text teilweise entstellte.
Ursula von der Leyen - "Calamity Ushi" - has done it again. As German minister of Defense she messed up the Bundeswehr. As president of the EU Commission she waisted our money on the Covid vaccins. And now she submitted us to the USA, hook, line and sinker. Somebody should stop that woman.
I'd laugh my belly out if that pervert maniac achieves to slice the brics bloc in fine elements, for a new new american century...humen are so stupid all around the world, I know for sure many young midclass folks " adore" western cult decadence. ...even in Russia/China
Ich denke nicht das es vollends Unsinn ist, man denke an das Verhalten Indiens in den BRICS und die Wahlen in Brasilien im Oktober 2026, wenn dann Bolsonaro an die Macht kommt, dann kann es ganz schnell RICS heißen und wie verhält sich Indien, die wollen im Führungsgremium der BRICS nicht an 2.Stelle stehen.
Schon 2023 urteilet die "WELT"
"Die Brics-Staaten wollen ihr loses Bündnis vergrößern. Doch bei ihrem Gipfel in Johannesburg wird von Anfang an deutlich, dass auch Indien einen Führungsanspruch hegt – und nicht hinter China die zweite Geige spielen will."
Da die BRICS kein Verbund wie die EU etc. sind ist es gleichzeitig die Schwäche der BRICS bei allen Vorteilen. Denn das wird dem Westen je nach Vorgehensweise immer die Möglichkeit geben, einen Fußm in die Tür zu bekommen.
Man muß sich nur jedes Jahr mit den Teilnehmern der Bilderberger Konferenz vertraut machen und schauen wo steht eine Wahl oder ein sonstiges Ereignis an, man kann dann regelrecht darauf wetten das dann Teilnehmer auf einmal eine Rolle spielen.
Very interesting piece. Europe is at a fork in the road when it comes to their socialized medicine and free defense. A majority of the US is tired of paying for the defense of Europe. At the same time, the US consumer is subsidizing Europe's socialized medicine through low-cost prescriptions while US customers have to pay higher prices. This will soon end either through this administration or the one after it no matter the party that gains power. Republicans supporters are sick of paying for the defense of an ungrateful continent (say what you want about Trump but he does have a knack for reading the room and responding accordingly.) At the same time, Dem supporters want lower prices in the US to pay for their own projects and they're going to force Europeans to pay for those projects. They also hate defense spending and will force further cuts which will leave Europeans forced to fend for themselves. So, their choices are either spend more on defense and less on their healthcare programs or raise taxes even further which will result in a revolution that would make the French Reign of Terror look like a Sunday picnic.
Sound analysis. Ruining them economically, though, seems a very short sighted way of dealing with vassals, though. Geopolitically, this will push the continent toward Russia, as at some point Brussels and, above all, national elites will realize they signed for their own dismissal and will try to avoid it is a violent departure.
You seem to see von der Leyen as someone with real power over the the member states. She does not have that sort of political power. I expect some/many of the sovereign states which form the so-called EU not to obey this nonsense simply because it goes straight against their national interests. The comedy show in Scotland might therefore very well precipitate the dissolution of this awful organization.
Your model is faulty. So, instead of seeing this as the US finally creating separation from the Continent, allowing it to use its advantages properly without "oversight' from the benighted Europeans, they see the EU as a vassal state because at heart they are communists who can only see the world in terms of colonialism.
Wenn Brasilien fällt im nächsten Oktober 2026 und folgend aus der BRICS ausscheidet ist Venezuela nur eine Frage der Zeit - Kuba ist wie der Iran mittlerweile relativ widerstandsfähig. Aber die Auswirkungen wenn es dann nur noch RICZ heißt sind im Moment nicht wirklich absehbar. Indien ist auch kein wirklich sicherer Kandidate da es immer noch indische Eliten gibt die genau wie ehemals Belarus und Russland in den 90er Jhren an den Westen glauben. Deshalb stemmen Sie sich gegen bestimmte Projekte bzw. stehen dabei auf der Bremse.
"Die Brics-Staaten wollen ihr loses Bündnis vergrößern. Doch bei ihrem Gipfel in Johannesburg wird von Anfang an deutlich, dass auch Indien einen Führungsanspruch hegt – und nicht hinter China die zweite Geige spielen will."
Wenn also Brasilien bei der nächsten Wahl das rechtskonservative Lager unter Bolsonaro bestimmt, fällt Brasilien raus und der Dominoeffekt könnte zu einem Zerfall führen.
Abgesehen davon gibt es noch eine andere Möglichkeit eine Absprache zwischen dem Trump-Lager und Putin/XI-Lager die USA organisieren ihren Hinterhof und Putin und XI ihren und die EU fällt als Faktor der Geopolitik komplett für die Zukunft raus, sodas die alten Grabenkämpfe in Europa neu ausbrechen könnten wobei die USA und Russland beide Nutznießer sind.
Good. This is what Europe gets for having tarriffs on America for years DESPITE the fact that America has provided the bulk of defense spending for Europe.
Great article but let's not forget the situation isn't that easy. Germany and other countries ran structural trade surpluses for decades and everyone knows. Von der Leyen is German and will do anything to help her industry. They took a 15 percent tariff because it could have been worse. She clearly doesn't care that the deal is bad for most other countries within the EU but for Germany it's not that bad, if you look at how bad the trade imbalance between Germany and the US is.
EU Geld Von der Leyen Ausgaben 2025 nur die Zahlen vom Juni/Juli 2025
Die EU-Kommission will mehr Geld. Auf 2 Billionen Euro beläuft sich der Entwurf für den Haushaltfinanzrahmen von 2028 bis 2034.
EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen sagte der Ukraine weitere 2,3 Milliarden Euro für sofort zu.
"15 Prozent auf alles, der größte aller Deals" Waren Richtung USA umgedreht 0% +
Energieträger aus den USA im Wert von 750 Milliarden US-Dollar kaufen +
600 Milliarden US-Dollar mehr in die USA investieren +
Zölle auf die Einfuhr von Stahl und Aluminium in die USA soll auch weiterhin der erhöhte
Zollsatz von 50 Prozent gelten.
Bis zu 800 Milliarden Euro will EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen mobilisieren, um die Verteidigungsfähigkeit Europas zu stärken und gleichzeitig die Unterstützung für die Ukraine zu sichern.
Yes sure Andrew, but you speak like the countries of UE were sovereign and independent yesteday.
Not at all.
For reminds:
- UK lost its sovereignty in 1942 when the half American Churchill sold it in a secret treaty: one know it exist but nobody except firt minister in fonction can read it. Since 1942, UK is a serf.
- Germany, Italy, Austria in 1945, lost the war and became occupied and submitted countries.
- East countries of Europe, in essence slave lands lay down immediately to US master as soon as freed from USSR.
Others don't matter.
France imitated sovereignty. Imitated. Foreign policy of France stopped in 1815 for UK thanks to Russian sacrifice which gave it no advantage. UK took it all. Watch at the french foreign policy since 1815, and conclude yourself. In 1943, France found a new semblance of sovereignty thanks to Staline who required that only de Gaulle and France Libre could represent France, what ulcerated horribly Roosevelt and Churchill.
This appearance of sovereignty longed till the end of USSR and progressively erased till Sarkozy , the "American Friend", who betrayed our country and gave it definitely to the USA, followed by two Young French Leader( US organisation).
It's over.
I'm surprised that one can speak of vassalization of UE as it occured yesterday.
Trump just shortened the chain and show the world that he can fuck us when he want by all the ways he want.
The US is looking with interest at the inability of BRICS to use gold as an alternative payment system. It's not so much a problem with Russia and China but that of Brazil, India and South Africa.
BRICS are like the boys on the island in Lord of the Flies: South Africa destroyed their relationship with the White farmers that produced incredible crop yields; Russia can't even take out a pissant country like Ukraine (and they were how within how many miles of Kiev??); Brazil f-ed up when they elected their current liberal idiot; China is manipulating their currency in order to make themselves look good. India is the one nation that could dominate the other four but, for some reason, they stick with the other four idiots.
India is certainly not as bad as South Africa, or Brazil. But it lacks the discipline China and Russia have. Even though, it has been improving under BJP.
Warwick Powell claims US Trade commitments to Europe will undermine its famous Pivot to Asia. The resources needed for a fraction of the commitments to the EU will crowd out Taiwan, South Korea, Red Sea and the South China Sea.
Nope - EU has no-one that is going to throw them a life-line. Trump is primarily interested in EU's industry relocating to the US. Which they will have to do, because of lower taxes and cheaper energy.
Sound analysis as usual. I like to make the case for one step further: sack the EU leadership for gross incompetency.
The European Union finds itself at a critical juncture in global trade diplomacy. In the span of a few years, it has failed to finalize a key investment deal with China, surrendered critical leverage with the United States, and severed its most strategically advantageous trade relationship with Russia. Russia was not only a major energy supplier, but also the foundation of the EU’s profitable economic model—offering low-cost energy inputs, a significant export market, and, crucially, a competitive choice of trading partners that served as a counterweight to overdependence on any single global power. With three catastrophic economic miscalculations in rapid succession, confidence in the EU Commission’s competence has eroded. One could reasonably argue that such a record justifies calls for its dismissal on grounds of gross strategic and economic failure.
Read in detail on my substack article: Europe's Strategic Trade Crossroads: Between U.S. Dependency and Chinese Stalemate @ https://leonvermeulen.substack.com/
Who will sack the EU leadership? As far as I can make out, they are untouchable.
Is there even a process by which they can be removed?
Europeans like being slaves. A dog may fear an unkind master, but more the worst master ,a dog fears having no Master
If they don't have the trust from most governments of member countries and EU parliament, they can be replaced in a min. The situation as is that they do enjoy such trust.
Ha, ha, ha, ha - like they would ever let themselves be replaced...
Right on Leon!
You live in Russia. Your opinion is garbage.
Really? Have you read all of these posts? Are you and extra terrestrial ET, or a troll instigator?
I am a guy who knows a Russian bootlicker when I see one. Get ready for B-2 spirits to unload on your fugly ass.
The EU doesn't have any leadership, it is a bureaucracy. That is why it is only going to follow orders, US orders specifically..
Plus the demonisation of CO2, stopping cheap reliable electricty in the EU.
(Britain and Australia have done the same)
Sick. Don't agree that this restores US hegemony because the rest of the world will not cave in, and the US is on the verge of a total economic and political collapse. "The Americas" are already leaving the American sector, and the BRICS+ are solidifying their position as the future order of the world. Trump will singlehandedly destroy the USA, NATO and the EU in very short order. Perhaps then European countries will reclaim their sovereignty and self-respect and join BRICS.
Wow. You seem pretty sure of yourself.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra
Yep. It looks more and more that Michael Every' @Rabobank and @Zerohedge predictions are correct and that EU will collapse long before the USA. After all, what the current EU agreement shows is that EU can not triangulate vis-a-vis USA and Russia&China coalition.
Yep, it could be the EU first but it could be Japan or the US as well. I would put better odds on the EU like you mentioned. But to me the EU deal basically says the US is tired of subsidizing EU pensions while getting a free ride on defense. The EU is now going to pay as they don't have much of an alternative.
It's not so much pensions but the whole social welfare. That to a large extent goes to non-EU residents. Not that it much increases EU's economic firepower.
Yep. For sure.
This is a great observation.
And I'm not alone seeing the USofA collapsing very soon. Top economists in the US and EU all warning of it, including CEO's of big US banks. Trump is a wrecking ball, the proverbial bull in the china shop! $37 Trillion debt and rising daily - never to be repaid; $1 Trillion plus just in interest; student debt is astronomical and can never be repaid; real living wage jobs are dwindling rapidly; inflation rising; food, gas and electric going up; unaffordable housing for millions; homeless increasing; drug and alcohol abuse rampant; societal unrest; political chaos and corruption. What else have I missed. Don't need a crystal ball to see this.
First of all I'm not saying what you're predicting is not going to happen. Second of all people have been making the same prediction for decades now. Will it happen tomorrow? 2050? Never? Will Japan collapse first? The UK? The EU? NATO? Will world leaders decide to start another world war to distract from/delay the collapse?
Hence the Yogi Berra quote.
Trump is many things to many people but one thing he didn't do is lose in this trade deal, exactly the opposite.
EU's particularly weak spot. Main US defect is their poor state of education - but that is remediable. On the other hand, they have more energy, minerals, cutting edge technology and better fertility rate.
Poor state of education is because of blacks and foreign nationals who have an IQ of 70.
Unfortunately, state of education in the US is even poor in fairly white states and lily-white suburbs.
All of those things are because of the democrats.
The only question has ever been WHEN? Surely seems "imminent" but has often seemed that way.
Stop kidding yourself. Look at treasury yields. They are not signaling anything like imminent crisis.
Treasury yields are not a good indicator, because US pensions providers are forced to invest so much money for the older workers facing retirement. The yields on US stock are so low, pension funds are forced to invest in treasuries.
No, pension funds are not forced to invest in treasuries (they generally have to hold conservative investments, but not exclusively) not that it would matter with debt greater than GDP.
I don't mean they are forced by law. No - the reason they are "forced" is that treasuries have a safe price on which they will be redeemed in 3, 5, 10 or 20 years, depending on their duration. And in-between, their yearly interest coupons are also guaranteed. This is different from real-estate or from company stock. With company stock there is no redemption of capital in 7 years or so.
The treasury market is not the only liquid market out there, although pension funds can and do invest in less liquid and illiquid assets.
Liquidity is not everything. You need to take guaranteed capital flows into account. For example, a 10 year Treasury will be redeemed in 10 years with money guaranteed. On the other hand, no-one can (really) guarantee you a redemption price for Google or Netflix in 10 years time.
Obviously, you don't need to guarantee all of the projected outpayments for 2035. And of course, if there is a mass-inflation, it's reasonable to hold MORE capital in companies and real-estate and gold. But, as we have seen from Japan, sometimes you have 2+ decades of low inflation, while prices for shares and real-estate and gold retreat.
"Join BRICS" = enslavement to China.
There surely is no guarantee the US will succeed but are you willing to bet against Trump right now? The trade imbalances are done. He has done what he set out to do. Congress passed stablecoin regulation which is growing faster than 100x per year and now the US isn’t reliant on the world buying its debt. Every bank will be issuing its own stablecoin. It must have 1:1 reserves for every coin it issues. This is going to be into the trillions. It’s actually hilarious as banks are funding their demise but that’s for another discussion. The money the US will make from tariffs have already given the US its first surplus in decades. We are the largest producer of energy for the world now. Game fucking over.
Ein interessanter Ansatz.
Dazu folgendes die Infos Zeitraum Juni - Juli 2025
EU Geld ausgaben 2025
Die EU-Kommission will mehr Geld. Auf 2 Billionen Euro beläuft sich der Entwurf für den Haushaltsfinanzrahmen von 2028 bis 2034.
EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen sagte der Ukraine weitere 2,3 Milliarden Euro zu.
"15 Prozent auf alles, der größte aller Deals" Waren Richtung USA umgedreht 0% +
Energieträger aus den USA im Wert von 750 Milliarden US-Dollar kaufen +
600 Milliarden US-Dollar Direktinvestionen mehr in die USA durch europ. besonders deutsche Unternehmen +
Zölle auf die Einfuhr von Stahl und Aluminium in die USA soll auch weiterhin der erhöhte Zollsatz von 50 Prozent gelten.
Bis zu 800 Milliarden Euro will EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen mobilisieren, um die Verteidigungsfähigkeit Europas zu stärken und gleichzeitig die Unterstützung für die Ukraine zu sichern.
Man fragt sich wo wollen die das Geld hernehmen und dann noch gegen Russland in den Krieg ziehen.
Ich gehe nach wie vor davon aus das die EU der Verarschte von seiten Trump ist und nicht die Atommacht Russland. Die Importe der USA aus Russland Stichwort Uran und Raketentriebwerke und andere wichtige Bodenschätze waren seitens der USA nie von Sanktionen betroffen.
The entire point of these "deals" is to get the US to fight Russia on europe's behalf.
This is progressing apace.
The US is not going to fight. The best US will do will be sell armaments and targeting information from space.
NATO is betting otherwise.
They are in for a surprize.
What makes you so sure? At every escalation, the AMC assures us that escalation is reckless, unpopular, impossible, that NATO is out of everything from catnip to burrito coverings.
NATO escalates, anyway. They are betting that nuclear war is survivable, at least for the people who count, and besides, Russia doesn't have the stones.
Ich denke genau wie zu Zeiten des "Eisernen Vorhangs" wissen beide Seiten was ein Kriegsausbruch bedeutet.
Bsp. Ich war während meiner Zeit bei der NVA Nationale Volksarmee der DDR in einem Bereich eingebunden, bei dem ich auch begrenzten Zugang zu einer Information hatte, die mir die Augen öffnete.
Der Warschauer Vertrag Gegenstück zu Nato ging davon aus das im Falle des Angriffs der NATO die DDR verlsutig geht und die 1. tatsächliche Verteitigunglinie die deutsch polnische Grenze an Oder und Neiße steht. Mit anderen Worten man kalkulierte das in der 1 Welle die Natostreitkräfte das Gebiet der DDR überrannte und alle Menschen Opfer werden.
Heute hat sich die Grenze nach Osten verschoben und indirekt sehen wir mit umgedrehten Vorzeichen dasselbe in der Ukraine. Es ging und geht nicht um die Menschen, es geht um Land und seine Ressourcen.
Die Frage wird sein wer überlebt, Europa nicht soviel steht fest. Die USA ziehen sich bereits zurück wie ich oben darstellte, das heißt nicht das sie aufgeben, sie machen nur die Schlußrechnung unter den Marshallplan.
Da mit China und den BRICS ein Konkurent aufgetaucht ist, den man Jahre unterschätzt ja belächelt hat, ähnlich halt wie nach 1991 mit dem heutigen Russland, gilt es sich darauf zu konzentrieren und Europa besonders aber Deutschland als Machtfaktor auszuschalten bzw. klar zu machen wo ihr Platz ist.
Das glauben Sie nicht wirklich, oder? Trump hat einen Superdeal gemacht, er verkauft der EU/NATO die veralteten Waffen die immer noch Schaden anrichten können, aber in der modernen Kriegsführung ausgedient haben, das sind die Fakten die sich aus dem Ukraine Konflikt ergeben.
Die EU will Milliarden an die Ukraine zur Unterstützung geben.
Also hat Trump erst einmal dafür gesorgt das das Geld in 1. Linie über die Zölle in die USA fließt. Was dann noch übrig ist wird für die Waffenkäufe gebraucht.
Trump wird den Dollar und die US Wirtschaft stabilisieren wollen, deshalb auch seine Sprüche in Richtung BRICS.
Nächstes Jahr im Oktober Wahlen in Brasilien, heißt es danach nur noch RICZ ?
Gibt es vielleicht eine Absprache durch welche Kanäle auch immer zwischen RF/China und USA - frei nach dem Motto unser Hinterhof ihr haltet euch raus und wir uns aus eurem und was die EU betrifft die schalten wir aus damit sie weder uns noch euch gefährlich wird ?
Yep, my favorite idea was Russia gets Novorossiya whole plus Baltics out of the NATO, and the US gets Greenland and Iran. Maybe China gets Taiwan after TSMC relocates 75% of its cutting edge semiconductor production to the US.
Hiding your response behind a german-language post is pathetic.
Yes, but now you can take google translate. It's fairly OK.
Ich habe das tatsächlich eine Zeitlang getan, meine Antworten oder eigenen Überlegungen zu übersetzen. Aber ich verweise mal auf ein Ereignis.
Purin wird von einem deutschen Journalisten ich glaube englisch oder russisch eine Frage gestellt. Was macht Putin er fragt den Journalisten warum er nicht in seiner Landessprache spricht ob er nicht Stolz auf seine Muttersprache sei.
Dies hat bei mir eine Überlegung ausgelöst, auch wenn gemeinhin englisch als Weltsprache definiert ist, muß ich dies nicht für mich anwenden. Es regt mich in gewisser Weise schon auf wie die deutsche Sprache mit englischen Worten verhunzt wird.
Jedes Volk sollte seine Sprache pflegen, denn es gehört zu seiner Kultur.
und das es heute Programme gibt die Texte egal welcher Sprache automatisch übersetzt ist es so einfach über Sprachbarrieren hinweg zu kommunizieren.
Yes, sure. The main problem with google translate is that it stumbles with German multi-clause grammar. Also, because English has a very strict subject-verb-object structure and German doesn't, it sometimes makes mistakes at identifying German subjects and objects.
I could, but since the poster is trying to hide, it's not like I am having an honest discussion here.
I think he was simply shy of using google translate to translate the German text into English. The problem is that German grammar is different from English Grammar and google translate has problems - AI LLM that it is - with the more complicated sentences Germans are so fond of.
Ich hatte mehrer Übersetzer ausprobiert, ins englische übersetzt und dann wieder ins deutsche, was dabei raus kam gefiel mir überhaupt nicht, weil es den Text teilweise entstellte.
Können Sie mir erklären warum ich mich verstecken soll? Ich bin gebürtiger DDR Bürger, ich überlasse es Ihnen darüber zu werten.
You miss the point, most likely intentionally so.
Ursula von der Leyen - "Calamity Ushi" - has done it again. As German minister of Defense she messed up the Bundeswehr. As president of the EU Commission she waisted our money on the Covid vaccins. And now she submitted us to the USA, hook, line and sinker. Somebody should stop that woman.
I'd laugh my belly out if that pervert maniac achieves to slice the brics bloc in fine elements, for a new new american century...humen are so stupid all around the world, I know for sure many young midclass folks " adore" western cult decadence. ...even in Russia/China
Ich denke nicht das es vollends Unsinn ist, man denke an das Verhalten Indiens in den BRICS und die Wahlen in Brasilien im Oktober 2026, wenn dann Bolsonaro an die Macht kommt, dann kann es ganz schnell RICS heißen und wie verhält sich Indien, die wollen im Führungsgremium der BRICS nicht an 2.Stelle stehen.
Schon 2023 urteilet die "WELT"
"Die Brics-Staaten wollen ihr loses Bündnis vergrößern. Doch bei ihrem Gipfel in Johannesburg wird von Anfang an deutlich, dass auch Indien einen Führungsanspruch hegt – und nicht hinter China die zweite Geige spielen will."
Da die BRICS kein Verbund wie die EU etc. sind ist es gleichzeitig die Schwäche der BRICS bei allen Vorteilen. Denn das wird dem Westen je nach Vorgehensweise immer die Möglichkeit geben, einen Fußm in die Tür zu bekommen.
Yep. German industrialists hate the situation as is. But there is nothing they can do with the current Bundeskanzler.
Man muß sich nur jedes Jahr mit den Teilnehmern der Bilderberger Konferenz vertraut machen und schauen wo steht eine Wahl oder ein sonstiges Ereignis an, man kann dann regelrecht darauf wetten das dann Teilnehmer auf einmal eine Rolle spielen.
Very interesting piece. Europe is at a fork in the road when it comes to their socialized medicine and free defense. A majority of the US is tired of paying for the defense of Europe. At the same time, the US consumer is subsidizing Europe's socialized medicine through low-cost prescriptions while US customers have to pay higher prices. This will soon end either through this administration or the one after it no matter the party that gains power. Republicans supporters are sick of paying for the defense of an ungrateful continent (say what you want about Trump but he does have a knack for reading the room and responding accordingly.) At the same time, Dem supporters want lower prices in the US to pay for their own projects and they're going to force Europeans to pay for those projects. They also hate defense spending and will force further cuts which will leave Europeans forced to fend for themselves. So, their choices are either spend more on defense and less on their healthcare programs or raise taxes even further which will result in a revolution that would make the French Reign of Terror look like a Sunday picnic.
Sound analysis. Ruining them economically, though, seems a very short sighted way of dealing with vassals, though. Geopolitically, this will push the continent toward Russia, as at some point Brussels and, above all, national elites will realize they signed for their own dismissal and will try to avoid it is a violent departure.
They will do no such thing, as long as Russia remains low status and the United States remains high status.
You seem to see von der Leyen as someone with real power over the the member states. She does not have that sort of political power. I expect some/many of the sovereign states which form the so-called EU not to obey this nonsense simply because it goes straight against their national interests. The comedy show in Scotland might therefore very well precipitate the dissolution of this awful organization.
Your model is faulty. So, instead of seeing this as the US finally creating separation from the Continent, allowing it to use its advantages properly without "oversight' from the benighted Europeans, they see the EU as a vassal state because at heart they are communists who can only see the world in terms of colonialism.
LIBOR dead. Long live SOFR
"If he succeeds in subordinating Brazil, then everything between it and Mexico will naturally fall in line."
There will be some exceptions, at least Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. I hope Brazilians will resist.
Wenn Brasilien fällt im nächsten Oktober 2026 und folgend aus der BRICS ausscheidet ist Venezuela nur eine Frage der Zeit - Kuba ist wie der Iran mittlerweile relativ widerstandsfähig. Aber die Auswirkungen wenn es dann nur noch RICZ heißt sind im Moment nicht wirklich absehbar. Indien ist auch kein wirklich sicherer Kandidate da es immer noch indische Eliten gibt die genau wie ehemals Belarus und Russland in den 90er Jhren an den Westen glauben. Deshalb stemmen Sie sich gegen bestimmte Projekte bzw. stehen dabei auf der Bremse.
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/india-to-lead-brics-in-2026-as-bloc-focuses-on-terror-eyes-un-reform-and-climate-action-article-152123640
oder wie es die deutsche Zeitung "WELT" nannte
"Die Brics-Staaten wollen ihr loses Bündnis vergrößern. Doch bei ihrem Gipfel in Johannesburg wird von Anfang an deutlich, dass auch Indien einen Führungsanspruch hegt – und nicht hinter China die zweite Geige spielen will."
Wenn also Brasilien bei der nächsten Wahl das rechtskonservative Lager unter Bolsonaro bestimmt, fällt Brasilien raus und der Dominoeffekt könnte zu einem Zerfall führen.
Abgesehen davon gibt es noch eine andere Möglichkeit eine Absprache zwischen dem Trump-Lager und Putin/XI-Lager die USA organisieren ihren Hinterhof und Putin und XI ihren und die EU fällt als Faktor der Geopolitik komplett für die Zukunft raus, sodas die alten Grabenkämpfe in Europa neu ausbrechen könnten wobei die USA und Russland beide Nutznießer sind.
Good. This is what Europe gets for having tarriffs on America for years DESPITE the fact that America has provided the bulk of defense spending for Europe.
Great article but let's not forget the situation isn't that easy. Germany and other countries ran structural trade surpluses for decades and everyone knows. Von der Leyen is German and will do anything to help her industry. They took a 15 percent tariff because it could have been worse. She clearly doesn't care that the deal is bad for most other countries within the EU but for Germany it's not that bad, if you look at how bad the trade imbalance between Germany and the US is.
und wie passt das dazu
EU Geld Von der Leyen Ausgaben 2025 nur die Zahlen vom Juni/Juli 2025
Die EU-Kommission will mehr Geld. Auf 2 Billionen Euro beläuft sich der Entwurf für den Haushaltfinanzrahmen von 2028 bis 2034.
EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen sagte der Ukraine weitere 2,3 Milliarden Euro für sofort zu.
"15 Prozent auf alles, der größte aller Deals" Waren Richtung USA umgedreht 0% +
Energieträger aus den USA im Wert von 750 Milliarden US-Dollar kaufen +
600 Milliarden US-Dollar mehr in die USA investieren +
Zölle auf die Einfuhr von Stahl und Aluminium in die USA soll auch weiterhin der erhöhte
Zollsatz von 50 Prozent gelten.
Bis zu 800 Milliarden Euro will EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen mobilisieren, um die Verteidigungsfähigkeit Europas zu stärken und gleichzeitig die Unterstützung für die Ukraine zu sichern.
Yes sure Andrew, but you speak like the countries of UE were sovereign and independent yesteday.
Not at all.
For reminds:
- UK lost its sovereignty in 1942 when the half American Churchill sold it in a secret treaty: one know it exist but nobody except firt minister in fonction can read it. Since 1942, UK is a serf.
- Germany, Italy, Austria in 1945, lost the war and became occupied and submitted countries.
- East countries of Europe, in essence slave lands lay down immediately to US master as soon as freed from USSR.
Others don't matter.
France imitated sovereignty. Imitated. Foreign policy of France stopped in 1815 for UK thanks to Russian sacrifice which gave it no advantage. UK took it all. Watch at the french foreign policy since 1815, and conclude yourself. In 1943, France found a new semblance of sovereignty thanks to Staline who required that only de Gaulle and France Libre could represent France, what ulcerated horribly Roosevelt and Churchill.
This appearance of sovereignty longed till the end of USSR and progressively erased till Sarkozy , the "American Friend", who betrayed our country and gave it definitely to the USA, followed by two Young French Leader( US organisation).
It's over.
I'm surprised that one can speak of vassalization of UE as it occured yesterday.
Trump just shortened the chain and show the world that he can fuck us when he want by all the ways he want.
Dazu passt ein Buch Die Briten und Europa 1000 Jahre Konflikt und Kooperation von Brendan Simms
Tariffs, Donald?
Bring it on!
BRICS will eat your lunch, dinner & midnight snack & leave you & your rotten cronies groveling in a shi*hole country of the likes you so deride.
The US is looking with interest at the inability of BRICS to use gold as an alternative payment system. It's not so much a problem with Russia and China but that of Brazil, India and South Africa.
BRICS are like the boys on the island in Lord of the Flies: South Africa destroyed their relationship with the White farmers that produced incredible crop yields; Russia can't even take out a pissant country like Ukraine (and they were how within how many miles of Kiev??); Brazil f-ed up when they elected their current liberal idiot; China is manipulating their currency in order to make themselves look good. India is the one nation that could dominate the other four but, for some reason, they stick with the other four idiots.
India is certainly not as bad as South Africa, or Brazil. But it lacks the discipline China and Russia have. Even though, it has been improving under BJP.
I bet you’ve been to all those countries and have acquired thorough knowledge of their inhabitants.
Warwick Powell claims US Trade commitments to Europe will undermine its famous Pivot to Asia. The resources needed for a fraction of the commitments to the EU will crowd out Taiwan, South Korea, Red Sea and the South China Sea.
https://warwickpowell.substack.com/p/the-great-entanglement?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1965102&post_id=169414086&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=16k&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Nope - EU has no-one that is going to throw them a life-line. Trump is primarily interested in EU's industry relocating to the US. Which they will have to do, because of lower taxes and cheaper energy.