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Julian Hudson's avatar

Interesting analysis but in the end the conclusion is that Putin shouldn't trust Trump or any U.S. administration. The U.S. never honors its word.

Complete compliance with the CEE is what Russia has a right to demand and expect. Trump's just tossing Putin a useless bone.

There are supposed to be no NATO troops permanently stationed in Poland but they are. The U.S. says they aren't permanent because they're rotated. That's just playing with words. It's no different than the Taiwan Relations Act which is an outright denial of the One China Policy the U.S. signed.

The U.S. is agreement incapable.

Agreements for the U.S. are just camouflage for its military actions.

This is all just a continuation of the subversion of Russia.

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barnabus's avatar

Poland relying on France 2025, is just as hare-brained as relying on France in the fall of 1939. OK, France occupied the minuscule Forest of Warndt in Saarland in September 1939, before it withdrew a month later.

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Feral Finster's avatar

Surely by now you have learned that nothing Trump or his administration does is to be taken seriously. He is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.

The Poles will newl and Trump will fold.

Just like today.

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James Schwartz's avatar

Trump is going full bore against China. There was talk of China invading Taiwan in 2027 which with the new tariffs I believe will speed that timeline up because we all know war is good business and puts people to work which China is in dire need of as they heads into recession. Trump is attempting to create an “iron dome” in America that replicates the one Israel has. Iran is the monkey wrench here. If they refuse to make any deal regarding their nuclear program then the US will be involved with actions that will happen over there but I think Israel takes the lead there only because they have Moussad moles imbedded in Iran so they will do their damage first with the US dropping bunker buster bombs. Regime change will be the end game there. How long that takes? I can’t imagine very long but it’s a distraction that China may very well take advantage of when it comes to Taiwan. The world is on fire again.

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Kennewick Man's avatar

This is fairly dramatic news showing that Trump keeps going toward de-escalation in Europe. That means we might be able to believe, for a few years, that we can live to old age before he escalates to a nuclear war against China. It seems the main function of American governments since 1945 was to generate global fear from a nuclear holocaust. Judging from the high-speed economic confrontation against China, Trump will get to his point very soon. And then he will be surprised what he is getting into.

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barnabus's avatar

Trump's break with China 2017/2025 is similar to Truman's break with Soviet Union after Japan capitulated. Old book closed, new book opened. In both cases, very momentous occasions.

But yes, no reason pursuing the old anti-Russia strategy when all Russia wants is to be left alone with a secure near abroad. Hence, a good move on Trump's part to withdraw from that tongue-breaking Polish logistics center (try pronounce Rzheshov if you are not West-Slavic).

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Gilgamech's avatar

Interesting. Thanks Andrew.

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