What Mutual Compromises Might An Azeri-Indian Rapprochement Entail?

The stage is now fully set for this to happen as a result of the South Caucasus’ evolving geopolitics.

Ties between Azerbaijan and India have been strained for over half a decade after Pakistan provided political and reportedly also military support to Azerbaijan during 2020’s Karabakh War, which prompted India to provide political support and later arms to Armenia. In response to Pakistani support to itself and reciprocal Indian support to Armenia, Azerbaijan redoubled its support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir Conflict. This in turn toxified perceptions of Azerbaijan among many Indians.

The resultant outcome was that Azeri-Indian cooperation along the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), the main route of which runs across Azerbaijan for connecting India and Russia through Iran (there are two others across the Caspian and Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan), became awkward and even uncertain. Over the past year, however, an opportunity arose for repairing their relations after Armenia repaired its own with Azerbaijan and then Pakistan finally recognized Armenia.

The Armenian-Azeri rapprochement was brokered by the US, which replaced Russia’s role amidst Armenia’s pro-Western pivot and even replaced it in the regional corridor that Putin himself was the first to envisage, now known as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Pakistan, which hitherto didn’t recognize Armenia out of solidarity with Azerbaijan, then updated its policy. These evolving geopolitics set the basis for an Azeri-Indian rapprochement. Here are five background briefings:

* 19 October 2022: “It’s Important To Clarify Misperceptions About India’s Policy Towards The South Caucasus”

* 1 January 2024: “India & Azerbaijan Should Reset Their Relations For The Greater Multipolar Good”

* 12 March 2024: “The Indo-Pak Military Rivalry Is Expanding Into The South Caucasus”

* 17 May 2024: “The Stage Is Set For An Azerbaijani-Indian Rapprochement”

* 5 September 2025: “The Establishment Of Armenian-Pakistani Diplomatic Ties Is Part Of A Larger Powerplay”

Circling back to the origins of strained Azeri-Indian ties, which were Pakistani support to Azerbaijan prompting Indian support to Armenia amidst those South Caucasus states’ own tensions, the Armenian-Azeri rapprochement and both of their newly strategic ties with the US altered regional dynamics. The US’ re-embrace of Azerbaijan can lead to the US replacing its junior Pakistani partner’s military role there just like Armenia’s pro-Western pivot can see it replace India’s one with the US too.

Pakistan’s and India’s reduced military roles in the region alleviate their rivalry there, thus incentivizing Azerbaijan to tone down its support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir Conflict after India no longer advocates for Armenia’s towards Karabakh after that issue was resolved by Baku. If Azerbaijan militarily cooperates less with Pakistan and softens its rhetoric on Kashmir while India militarily cooperates less with Armenia and already ended its rhetoric on Karabakh, then meaningfully improved ties are possible.

These mutual compromises might already be in effect to little fanfare per RT’s report in early April that “India and Azerbaijan seek to reset ties” as proven by the sixth round of Foreign Office consultations at that time. At stake are closer energy ties, logistical ones across the NSTC (whenever it returns to operation given its suspension during the Third Gulf War), and people-to-people ties, et al. The stage is now fully set for this to happen as a result of the South Caucasus’ evolving geopolitics.