So then the question has to be, what really is HTS?
I wonder how any Islamists could see their way to having Russian forces on some plot of land in Syria. I get the idea that Erodgan might want a deal of some kind with the Russians. But how would it work in practice?
It's true that US forces have been in Iraq with at least notionally Islamist governments sitting in Baghdad. If HTS really is open to such a deal, then they have somehow become some sort of AKP extension. Is that really what has happened?
PS Or have they become some sort of Hamas-like group (Hamas, like AKP, being a Muslim Brotherhood, derivative.)
I guess Russian thinking as explained by the author is: The King is Dead, Long Live the King? ie Whoever is in charge in Syria will have a la longue the same or very similar interests as the person preceding him...
My interest is primarily in what the winners in this are thinking and what they will do. Russia doesn't fall into that category. It may have mitigated its defeat somewhat with some sort of "deal" with Turkey. But we all know what a handshake with Erdogan is worth.
To your point, why would whoever is in charge of Syria going forward have the same interests as Assad? His interest was ultimately, and almost entirely, regime survival, with Russia as one of his principal protectors.
Is an HTS/Turkish state likely to be forced into a position in which it has to think that way? It doesn't seem likely. And in any case, Russia, in the end, failed as regime guarantor and has shown that it has no intention of taking on Israel or the US (which is certainly wise at this juncture,) so what confidence would that inspire in a new Syrian state, even if it were seeking "protection services"?
At best, Russia will be a tenant however one wants to dress up that reality. They might be better advised to cut bait entirely depending on how you assess the cost/benefit of hanging on and paying rent to HTS for a little coastal enclave.
>>"Putting all the preceding observations together, Israel’s “shock and awe” campaign in Syria is driven by: 1) a much greater threat perception of HTS than of Assad; 2) the desire to advance military-strategic goals in Lebanon and Syria; and 3) possible territorial revisionism per the “Greater Israel” plan. The unintended consequences are that: 1) Biden’s Afghan fiasco looks even worse than before; 2) Syrian heavy equipment won’t make it to Ukraine; and 3) Russia might retain its military presence in Syria."
Possibly. But if Israel has a much greater threat perception of HTS than it did of Assad, then why did the Israelis work to overthrow him? It seems to me that Assad and the unitary Syrian state were the more formidable threat/barrier to a "Greater Israel," so his ouster was prioritized. Now, the Israelis have the opportunity to destroy equipment that can be said to have no "current owner" so that no Syrian state--whoever is running it--will have it in the future. I'm skeptical of the theory that Israeli destruction of clapped-out Syrian equipment is part of some deal with Russia to prevent it being sent to Ukraine.
Reference the Afghanistan withdrawal, frankly, I don't think it is on the minds of many. And Biden is done, so how significant a consequence can it really be anyway at this point?
On the last point about future Russian presence in Syria: Russia as a tenant of the Sultan and the Jewish landlord. How pathetic! All those wars in which they wiped the floor with Turkey. And now it's come to this.
“His successors are ideological driven and embrace a twisted “martyrdom” concept, however, so it couldn’t confidently be ruled out that they wouldn’t one day try to learn how to operate the strategic Soviet- and Russian-era weaponry that they inherited to launch a devastating attack against Israel.”
Re:this, HTS now has said that it will not pursue wars against Israel because they are too *tired*. What would one make out of this?
Syria is the lure that will break Israel through over extension ( and drag the US into a quagmire, and the Hegemon has a very poor record in that regard ( Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan), so 2 birds with one attrition stone ( Russia does attrition with expertise).
💸 Imagine this: You wake up, check your account, and see your money growing every week or month—without leaving home. I started exactly where you are, looking for a way to create real financial freedom. Now, I help others do the same by mastering the stock market with proven strategies. Ready to start your own success story? DM me, and let’s make it happen!
To help repair the damages already done to Russia, Iran, and Syria, and for helping to maintain Russia's prestige among the Gulf countries, Russia needs to keep those military bases and humbly serve as tenant. Syria is now a sub-colony in the sense that it is the colony of multiple countries: Tukiye, USA, Kurds, and Israel. I suspect Israel will commit a cut to itself and try to swallow Damascus.
(begin of fairytale) If the head of HTS is merely a puppet, Russia does not face the immediate danger of losing its lease. If the head of HTS is one of that rare kind of nation builders (say, kind of like Assa's father) then the nature of NTS will change no matter how it was started. If so, the regime currently seen as a weak puppet would gradually grow strong, shift more focus on people's lives and win more people to his side. Then very soon he would need friends to satisfy his deep wish of a pan-Syria nationalism. Turkiye, Kurds, USA, and Israel will become his obstacles, while Russia and Syria will re-emerge as his friends. (end of fairytale) But I do see a slim chance for this fairytale to work out.
"For people laboring under the misconception that the current crisis is the result of enmity between Muslims and Jews, or that it is a battle over control of some real estate in Gaza and the West Bank, an understanding of the Bernard Lewis Plan is crucial, in order to place this conflict in its true global context."
It is about imperial control of Asias muslim regions to use as a proxy against China and Russia
Israel has from the start been nothing but a proxy.
The anglosaxon community on the webs altmedia seem to hide that by repeating the notion of Israel as an independent power (capable of running the US with bribes on the order of $100M)
The plan includes the idea that a large new turkish region is meant to rise while on the same time Turkey is meant to be split into several parts there is both a motive to see it as an opportunity for a return of the Ottoman empire but on the same time it also exposes that the kurds are meant to break down Turkey into smaller parts. That is Erdogan may see his view of the Kurds as enemies confirmed and to legitimise his current moves..
As you have pointed out insightfully in previous articles: Russia and Israel are not enemies. Fremenies perhaps. The Russia presence in Syria has always been vulnerable. The Russian forces in Syria were never in a position to successfully defend themselves from a determined Israeli attack on them. The Russians have always worked within that balance.
Israel probably held back from attacking Syria in the past because, contrary to popular thinking, Israel preferred Assad and Russia in charge to some unknown alternative. Now that Assad is gone, why take the chance with whomever or whatever might take root there.
Perhaps there is some "greater Israel" faction within Israel. But isn't it reasonable to just assume that the IDF is using this God given opportunity to sieze Mt Herman and associated heights and out flank all of Hezbollahs defensive works south of the Lani river. Does it have to be anything more than that ?
Thanks for this excellent post.
Does Russia have the appetite and resources to maintain presence in Syria under HTS? What do you think?
Putin seems to be spread pretty thin already.
Yes, it has both, and it's just entered into dialogue with HTS right now in pursuit of that goal:
https://tass.com/politics/1886747
So then the question has to be, what really is HTS?
I wonder how any Islamists could see their way to having Russian forces on some plot of land in Syria. I get the idea that Erodgan might want a deal of some kind with the Russians. But how would it work in practice?
It's true that US forces have been in Iraq with at least notionally Islamist governments sitting in Baghdad. If HTS really is open to such a deal, then they have somehow become some sort of AKP extension. Is that really what has happened?
PS Or have they become some sort of Hamas-like group (Hamas, like AKP, being a Muslim Brotherhood, derivative.)
I guess Russian thinking as explained by the author is: The King is Dead, Long Live the King? ie Whoever is in charge in Syria will have a la longue the same or very similar interests as the person preceding him...
My interest is primarily in what the winners in this are thinking and what they will do. Russia doesn't fall into that category. It may have mitigated its defeat somewhat with some sort of "deal" with Turkey. But we all know what a handshake with Erdogan is worth.
To your point, why would whoever is in charge of Syria going forward have the same interests as Assad? His interest was ultimately, and almost entirely, regime survival, with Russia as one of his principal protectors.
Is an HTS/Turkish state likely to be forced into a position in which it has to think that way? It doesn't seem likely. And in any case, Russia, in the end, failed as regime guarantor and has shown that it has no intention of taking on Israel or the US (which is certainly wise at this juncture,) so what confidence would that inspire in a new Syrian state, even if it were seeking "protection services"?
At best, Russia will be a tenant however one wants to dress up that reality. They might be better advised to cut bait entirely depending on how you assess the cost/benefit of hanging on and paying rent to HTS for a little coastal enclave.
>>"Putting all the preceding observations together, Israel’s “shock and awe” campaign in Syria is driven by: 1) a much greater threat perception of HTS than of Assad; 2) the desire to advance military-strategic goals in Lebanon and Syria; and 3) possible territorial revisionism per the “Greater Israel” plan. The unintended consequences are that: 1) Biden’s Afghan fiasco looks even worse than before; 2) Syrian heavy equipment won’t make it to Ukraine; and 3) Russia might retain its military presence in Syria."
Possibly. But if Israel has a much greater threat perception of HTS than it did of Assad, then why did the Israelis work to overthrow him? It seems to me that Assad and the unitary Syrian state were the more formidable threat/barrier to a "Greater Israel," so his ouster was prioritized. Now, the Israelis have the opportunity to destroy equipment that can be said to have no "current owner" so that no Syrian state--whoever is running it--will have it in the future. I'm skeptical of the theory that Israeli destruction of clapped-out Syrian equipment is part of some deal with Russia to prevent it being sent to Ukraine.
Reference the Afghanistan withdrawal, frankly, I don't think it is on the minds of many. And Biden is done, so how significant a consequence can it really be anyway at this point?
On the last point about future Russian presence in Syria: Russia as a tenant of the Sultan and the Jewish landlord. How pathetic! All those wars in which they wiped the floor with Turkey. And now it's come to this.
I have been given to understand from other sources that HTS was supported by Israel and the USA .
“His successors are ideological driven and embrace a twisted “martyrdom” concept, however, so it couldn’t confidently be ruled out that they wouldn’t one day try to learn how to operate the strategic Soviet- and Russian-era weaponry that they inherited to launch a devastating attack against Israel.”
Re:this, HTS now has said that it will not pursue wars against Israel because they are too *tired*. What would one make out of this?
Syria is the lure that will break Israel through over extension ( and drag the US into a quagmire, and the Hegemon has a very poor record in that regard ( Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan), so 2 birds with one attrition stone ( Russia does attrition with expertise).
💸 Imagine this: You wake up, check your account, and see your money growing every week or month—without leaving home. I started exactly where you are, looking for a way to create real financial freedom. Now, I help others do the same by mastering the stock market with proven strategies. Ready to start your own success story? DM me, and let’s make it happen!
To help repair the damages already done to Russia, Iran, and Syria, and for helping to maintain Russia's prestige among the Gulf countries, Russia needs to keep those military bases and humbly serve as tenant. Syria is now a sub-colony in the sense that it is the colony of multiple countries: Tukiye, USA, Kurds, and Israel. I suspect Israel will commit a cut to itself and try to swallow Damascus.
(begin of fairytale) If the head of HTS is merely a puppet, Russia does not face the immediate danger of losing its lease. If the head of HTS is one of that rare kind of nation builders (say, kind of like Assa's father) then the nature of NTS will change no matter how it was started. If so, the regime currently seen as a weak puppet would gradually grow strong, shift more focus on people's lives and win more people to his side. Then very soon he would need friends to satisfy his deep wish of a pan-Syria nationalism. Turkiye, Kurds, USA, and Israel will become his obstacles, while Russia and Syria will re-emerge as his friends. (end of fairytale) But I do see a slim chance for this fairytale to work out.
Now that mutTrump was once again selected... The Great Land has another chance to become it!
https://voza0db.substack.com/p/morons-just-dont-get-it-5f7
I like to remind people about the following mentorship behind the empires geopolitical actions for many decades
https://larouchepub.com/eiw/public/1995/eirv22n24-19950609/eirv22n24-19950609_010-the_bernard_lewis_plan_setting_t.pdf
Bernard Lewis Plan
Setting the 'Arc of Crisis' aflame by Joseph Brewda
The more recent summary from late 2023 by Daniel Platt quoting Helga Zepp Larouche
https://larouchepub.com/other/2023/5045-the_bernard_lewis_plan.html
points out
"For people laboring under the misconception that the current crisis is the result of enmity between Muslims and Jews, or that it is a battle over control of some real estate in Gaza and the West Bank, an understanding of the Bernard Lewis Plan is crucial, in order to place this conflict in its true global context."
It is about imperial control of Asias muslim regions to use as a proxy against China and Russia
Israel has from the start been nothing but a proxy.
The anglosaxon community on the webs altmedia seem to hide that by repeating the notion of Israel as an independent power (capable of running the US with bribes on the order of $100M)
The plan includes the idea that a large new turkish region is meant to rise while on the same time Turkey is meant to be split into several parts there is both a motive to see it as an opportunity for a return of the Ottoman empire but on the same time it also exposes that the kurds are meant to break down Turkey into smaller parts. That is Erdogan may see his view of the Kurds as enemies confirmed and to legitimise his current moves..
As you have pointed out insightfully in previous articles: Russia and Israel are not enemies. Fremenies perhaps. The Russia presence in Syria has always been vulnerable. The Russian forces in Syria were never in a position to successfully defend themselves from a determined Israeli attack on them. The Russians have always worked within that balance.
Israel probably held back from attacking Syria in the past because, contrary to popular thinking, Israel preferred Assad and Russia in charge to some unknown alternative. Now that Assad is gone, why take the chance with whomever or whatever might take root there.
Perhaps there is some "greater Israel" faction within Israel. But isn't it reasonable to just assume that the IDF is using this God given opportunity to sieze Mt Herman and associated heights and out flank all of Hezbollahs defensive works south of the Lani river. Does it have to be anything more than that ?
https://youtu.be/DQrVW4UyJXM?si=ZQsaBYtRM3UwMNbI
Speech of honourable Grand Mufti of Russia in August presence of His Excellency President Vladimir Vladimirivich Putin.
Peace.