In case this war keeps going on and Ukraine is empowered for long range attacks into Russia the mathematical probability of using Oresniks is exactly 100%. All indications are that Trump did not only inherit Biden’s war but he also loves it.
After Trump’s first presidency, he said he’d received “some bad advice” wrt the pandemic measures (i.e. Fauci). I thought that was credible. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…?)
Trump isn't turning it into his war. He made it his war during his first administration. Don't buy into his lies that he was ever opposed to this war or that he's trying to be a peacemaker. Trump is neither of those.
Trump escalated the war during his first term. He never said anything opposing the war during the 4 years he was out of office. He actually threw his support to giving arms to Ukraine after he was told that it would be a loan. He didn't say no, don't kill those beautiful young men.
I told you all along that this is where things would end up. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. There will be a few false starts and reversals of course which Trump thinks are very clever, but he'll eventually get us to the same place Biden would have.
It is abundantly obvious that Russia does not want to fight. Hence, for three years, we are promised that Russia finally will take the gloves off. This never happens.
This has caused the West to lose all fear of Russia.
I would disagree. Where I was a bit apprehensive was when Russians had their setback in late summer of 2022. But once the Ukrainian offensive in summer 2023 showed itself to be a nothingburger, I don't think that non-conventional means will be used.
By the way, India was also very cautious about escalating.
That Russians are hesitant to escalate beyond Ukraine is probably because they are not sure how much USA will be inclined to use Art5 to escalate. That's the great unknown.
The Russians are watching NATO very closely. NATO’s largest base is in Romania, just across the border. They hit a train, as soon as it crossed into Ukraine.
If NATO is complicit in long range missile attacks on Russia, then what’s to stop Russia using Oreshnik on Romania?
“"Taurus could bring relief, at least in parts, and thus protect the civilian population in Ukraine if the system is delivered in larger numbers," CDU foreign policy Roderich Kiesewetter wrote this week on X. Other politicians are also repeatedly calling for the delivery of cruise missiles. As soon as the debate was re-egated, Russian state television took up the topic - with drastic warnings and targeted threats against the Taurus producer MBDA.
Russia keeps warning
In the immediate vicinity of the city in the district of Neuburg-Schrobenhausen is the headquarters of MBDA Germany, the manufacturer of high-tech cruise missiles. Moscow has repeatedly warned Berlin against the delivery of such weapons to Kiev. This would make Germany a direct party to the war. With the arms pact, which was only agreed on Wednesday, the discussion about the delivery is not off the table, but apparently postponed for the time being.”
You have strayed from the point of my post @Feral Finster. Russia has demonstrated their ability, and confidence, by deploying the unstoppable Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic missile in Dnipro. Will Romania be next?
Now that Germany has approved Taurus attacks on Russia, will the German Taurus factory be a legitimate target, as Barnabus has suggested?
I have not strayed from anything. To answer your question: what is going to stop Russia? The answer is simple: Russian fear of escalation.
To answer your follow up question: will Romania be next? The answer is the same: no, because Russia fears escalation, and as long as Russia continues to do so, the West can escalate with impunity.
Russia has not demonstrated any confidence. By restricting use of the Oreshnik to Ukraine. NATO is confident that these will never be used on any NATO member.
This is the inevitable result of Russian dithering. Whether a target is "legitimate" is irrelevant. The only question is what a military can accomplish and what it is prepared to do.
My bet is Russia will wait after the strike of Taurus before using Oreshnik as a symbolic retaliation. If we can say the Ukraine's war is now Trump's war, then I guess we can also say that for the sake of the Ukraine War, Trump is irrelevant: for this war, he is only the figurehead. He cannot go openly pro-Ukraine to lose his voter base (Vance will watch that direction carefully). Therefore, if he cannot get the US out of the Ukraine War, at best he can do is to get himself out of the Ukraine War and let his warmonger subordinates manage it. His remaining job is merely to fend off reporters' questions.
Trump's voters are a cult of personality. The actual policies are irrelevant. Recall Trump’s reversals of course with regard to Syria. Didn't affect the cult a bit. If Trump was for peace, then they were for peace. If Trump was for war, then they just as passionately argued for war.
Mostly agree, but not entirely. Trump's voter base consists of multiple blocks, certainly not all blocks having the same policy preference across the board. I think I am among a small minority of them, the group of non-religious conservatives. But until the mid-term election, we small potato voters have minimal impact, while the lobbyists, foreign interferences, big business, oligarchs, Jewish fanatics, etc., all have maintained their influence. These are fundamental weaknesses of the current system, and the landscape will not change much until national population quality improves. Like, when humans landed on Uranus.
In case this war keeps going on and Ukraine is empowered for long range attacks into Russia the mathematical probability of using Oresniks is exactly 100%. All indications are that Trump did not only inherit Biden’s war but he also loves it.
After Trump’s first presidency, he said he’d received “some bad advice” wrt the pandemic measures (i.e. Fauci). I thought that was credible. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…?)
It was obvious about two weeks into his first term that Trump was weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Trump isn't turning it into his war. He made it his war during his first administration. Don't buy into his lies that he was ever opposed to this war or that he's trying to be a peacemaker. Trump is neither of those.
Trump escalated the war during his first term. He never said anything opposing the war during the 4 years he was out of office. He actually threw his support to giving arms to Ukraine after he was told that it would be a loan. He didn't say no, don't kill those beautiful young men.
I told you all along that this is where things would end up. Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. There will be a few false starts and reversals of course which Trump thinks are very clever, but he'll eventually get us to the same place Biden would have.
As NATO filters in at the rear, I expect the Europeans may get a new demonstration. Will the Russian summer offensive begin as early as end of June?
It is abundantly obvious that Russia does not want to fight. Hence, for three years, we are promised that Russia finally will take the gloves off. This never happens.
This has caused the West to lose all fear of Russia.
Russia is hoping that if they are mild and reasonable, the bullies will leave them alone and maybe even invite them to join their gang.
The only thing Russia is demonstrating is that deterrence is worthless if your enemies know you'll never use that deterrence.
As it is, Russian dithering makes nuclear conflict *more* likely rather than less.
I would disagree. Where I was a bit apprehensive was when Russians had their setback in late summer of 2022. But once the Ukrainian offensive in summer 2023 showed itself to be a nothingburger, I don't think that non-conventional means will be used.
By the way, India was also very cautious about escalating.
That Russians are hesitant to escalate beyond Ukraine is probably because they are not sure how much USA will be inclined to use Art5 to escalate. That's the great unknown.
The Russians are watching NATO very closely. NATO’s largest base is in Romania, just across the border. They hit a train, as soon as it crossed into Ukraine.
If NATO is complicit in long range missile attacks on Russia, then what’s to stop Russia using Oreshnik on Romania?
https://youtu.be/ttYXOX2slcw?si=M3G__69PZUarIDHy
Or in Schrobenhausen. That's the Taurus manufacturing site. People there are already slightly jittery https://www.donaukurier.de/lokales/landkreis-neuburg-schrobenhausen/militaer-experte-schlaegt-angriff-auf-schrobenhausen-vor-18759956
Google translate of first article:
“"Taurus could bring relief, at least in parts, and thus protect the civilian population in Ukraine if the system is delivered in larger numbers," CDU foreign policy Roderich Kiesewetter wrote this week on X. Other politicians are also repeatedly calling for the delivery of cruise missiles. As soon as the debate was re-egated, Russian state television took up the topic - with drastic warnings and targeted threats against the Taurus producer MBDA.
Russia keeps warning
In the immediate vicinity of the city in the district of Neuburg-Schrobenhausen is the headquarters of MBDA Germany, the manufacturer of high-tech cruise missiles. Moscow has repeatedly warned Berlin against the delivery of such weapons to Kiev. This would make Germany a direct party to the war. With the arms pact, which was only agreed on Wednesday, the discussion about the delivery is not off the table, but apparently postponed for the time being.”
Because Russia fears escalation, while NATO is confident that they are safe.
You have strayed from the point of my post @Feral Finster. Russia has demonstrated their ability, and confidence, by deploying the unstoppable Oreshnik MIRV hypersonic missile in Dnipro. Will Romania be next?
Now that Germany has approved Taurus attacks on Russia, will the German Taurus factory be a legitimate target, as Barnabus has suggested?
I have not strayed from anything. To answer your question: what is going to stop Russia? The answer is simple: Russian fear of escalation.
To answer your follow up question: will Romania be next? The answer is the same: no, because Russia fears escalation, and as long as Russia continues to do so, the West can escalate with impunity.
Russia has not demonstrated any confidence. By restricting use of the Oreshnik to Ukraine. NATO is confident that these will never be used on any NATO member.
This is the inevitable result of Russian dithering. Whether a target is "legitimate" is irrelevant. The only question is what a military can accomplish and what it is prepared to do.
You are entitled to your opinion…
I thought Vance, Gabbard and Sacks would keep Trump on course but the Russophobic warmongers like Graham and Kellogg seem to have captured him.
What’s The Likelihood That Russia Soon Drops?
The odds have significantly decreased following the drone strikes on the strategic bomber forces
Someone about to get a severe nut allergy
Very high. However, I do not believe Russia will employ that option before it has a dependable stockpile of the weapon system
On Ukraine? If they indeed use Taurus to strike deep inside Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if they hit Germany.
To answer the question in Korybko's headline:
It doesn't matter, since nothing is going to deter the West other than an application of overwhelming force.
My bet is Russia will wait after the strike of Taurus before using Oreshnik as a symbolic retaliation. If we can say the Ukraine's war is now Trump's war, then I guess we can also say that for the sake of the Ukraine War, Trump is irrelevant: for this war, he is only the figurehead. He cannot go openly pro-Ukraine to lose his voter base (Vance will watch that direction carefully). Therefore, if he cannot get the US out of the Ukraine War, at best he can do is to get himself out of the Ukraine War and let his warmonger subordinates manage it. His remaining job is merely to fend off reporters' questions.
Trump's voters are a cult of personality. The actual policies are irrelevant. Recall Trump’s reversals of course with regard to Syria. Didn't affect the cult a bit. If Trump was for peace, then they were for peace. If Trump was for war, then they just as passionately argued for war.
Mostly agree, but not entirely. Trump's voter base consists of multiple blocks, certainly not all blocks having the same policy preference across the board. I think I am among a small minority of them, the group of non-religious conservatives. But until the mid-term election, we small potato voters have minimal impact, while the lobbyists, foreign interferences, big business, oligarchs, Jewish fanatics, etc., all have maintained their influence. These are fundamental weaknesses of the current system, and the landscape will not change much until national population quality improves. Like, when humans landed on Uranus.