What’s The Most Realistic Endgame For Ukraine’s Odessa Region?

This thought exercise shouldn’t be innocently misinterpreted or maliciously spun as implying that Russia’s interests wouldn’t be advanced by returning Odessa Region.

Russia’s “systematic strikes” on Odessa Region, which have made Ukraine de-facto landlocked for the time being, represent the most significant example thus far of Putin consistently “escalating to de-escalate” with Ukraine in response to hitherto increasing Western-backed Ukrainian escalations. This (arguably belated) development rekindled hopes among Russia’s supporters at home and abroad that the Ukrainian Conflict’s endgame might see the return of Odessa Region to Russia.

Its namesake city was built by the Russian people and became one of the Empire’s crown jewels. It thus has significant emotive value for Russians and its continued administration by Ukraine is considered by Russian patriots to be illegitimate. Nevertheless, as was clarified in December 2023, “Putin’s Reminder That Odessa Is A Russian City Doesn’t Mean It’s In The Kremlin’s Crosshairs”. It’s a matter of indisputable fact that Russia has made no attempt whatsoever thus far during the special operation to return it.

This objective observation shouldn’t be innocently misinterpreted or maliciously spun as implying that Russia’s interests wouldn’t be advanced by returning Odessa Region, just that Putin very clearly hasn’t authorized anything of the sort, the reasons of which can only be speculated. He provided a hint late last month, however, when he politely rebuffed an unnamed award recipient’s request to “be even bolder” in the special operation as he described it.

In Putin’s words, “Here, just as with the economy, there are risks which could result in more casualties for us on the battlefield. Therefore, we will exercise caution in these efforts too, while remaining assertive and consistent in seeking to achieve the objectives the country has. We will achieve them.” It can therefore be surmised that Putin understands the enormous risks that making a move on Odessa could entail, as well as the possibly colossal loss of Russian lives, ergo his reluctance to greenlight it.

This assessment stands despite him telling a journalist in June that “our primary objective” remains “the final liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya.” While many of Russia’s supporters at home and abroad interpreted his reference to Novorossiya to mean the historical region that includes Odessa, Putin is on record multiple times referring to Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions as Novorossiya, which has become his preferred shorthand way of talking about both of them. Any other interpretation is wishful thinking.

Having clarified what Putin means when he mentions Novorossiya and arguing that his reluctance to greenlight any move on Odessa is due to his concern about Russian casualties, it’s now time to say a few words about the most realistic endgame for Odessa. Since it’s unlikely to return to Russia absent a black swan event, the best-case scenario is that trusted non-Western peacekeepers are deployed there after the conflict ends for monitoring the region’s port activity and enforcing its maritime demilitarization.

Russia’s interests aren’t in maintaining Ukraine’s de facto landlocked status indefinitely and keeping it a failed state, but in preventing military imports by sea and the launch of sea drones. Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery, which is in Russia’s interests so long as security threats are managed, requires the resumption of commercial port activity. Since Russia can’t directly ensure Odessa Region’s continued demilitarization, it’ll require trusted non-Western peacekeepers to do this, which it might soon propose.