He might hypothetically agree that the resumption of NATO’s present support for Ukraine (arms, intelligence, logistics, etc.) in the event of another conflict wouldn’t cross Russia’s red lines but he’s unlikely to compromise on the issue of Western troops in Ukraine once the present conflict ends.
I'm afraid Russia will have to live with hostile NATO and its friends closer to Russian borders than before SMO. Ukraine as a truly neutral, disarmed and politically dependent from Russia state is unlikely to materialize. Sweden and Finland, the new NATO members with a long northern border, need attention, too. A can of worms has been opened.
If Russia "will have to live with hostile NATO" there will simply be no peace treaty and the current situation will drag on till Ukraine loses the whole Black Sea littoral. Already, India and China are moving closer to each other. Then, the issue of Suwalki corridor will come up again. Latvian fragility? It's really an opened can of worms.
Any deployment of Western troops inside Ukraine will be an unacceptable slippery slope for Russia, exactly for the same reason why they decided to start the ‘Special Operation’. Once US/NATO is enabled to send in troops they will compromise whatever is left of Ukraine and use it as springboard for an everlasting war. There are a lot of indications showing that this is exactly what they have in mind. Just like in the decade before this conflict started, they are already doing the preparations for a next phase.
1, They are systematically preparing Moldova and Romania to be turned into the new proxy states. In both nations the EU is heavily involved in lawless acts to manipulate the governments and elections there. They are focusing on these two nations for their geographic positions and the fact that both of these countries are poor, underdeveloped and are saturated with corruption just like Ukraine. The political leadership once softened up can be bought by the pound. A color revolution is in the process in Serbia, very close to a full blown revolution to destabilize the government there. In Hungary a Mr. Peter Magyar is heavily financed and supported by Brussels to undermine the Orban government. Ukraine just stopped the oil deliveries from Russia to Hungary, economically undermining the stability of that nation while Hungary might stop pushing electricity toward Ukraine as an answer.
2, The whole of Western Europe is gearing up for heavy weapon production as we speak but it will take them some years to get there. The Sentinel-1 data photographed from space shows that a third of the major weapon manufacturing locations in the West are growing at accelerated rates. The ASAP program with 88 locations and $500 million investment is building roads to move heavy machinery to the locations. $1.5 billion is targeted for long range rockets and drones. Hungary is already setting up a factory to produce 1.1 million 155mm shells with the help of German Rheinmetall. The production is supposed to reach the 1.1 million shells next year but this will not necessarily happen. Supply and the necessary heavy machinery sounds difficult to all arrive on such short order. In Germany, Schrobenhausen a $5.6 billion dollar program is aiming to produce 1000 Patriot GEM-T missiles per year. In Norway the military industrial complex is also gearing up. Rheinmetall wants to take over an old VW factory for the assembly of Leopard tanks and heavy military vehicles at Osnabrück, Germany.
Western European nations are reshaping their industries with maximum speed with war on their feverish minds, incorporating sectors of nonmilitary productivity. They are hoping that Russia will watch this process silently and wait forever for the preparations to finish.
I don't think a tank or fighter jet generates any appreciable returns for the governments that purchase them, and both cost considerable money to operate.
You're missing the point. It's a net negative, although some persons make out like bandits (tech often results in higher margins, which is a related by slightly different animal than ROI).
On the other hand, investment in net positive ROI projects results in more plunder all around.
What with the Americans building their biggest ever military base on Romania, upon which they will undoubtedly house missiles and early warning systems of various kinds, I see no reason for any other forms of deterrence. After all, Romania is no more than a hop, skip and jump from Russian borders. Moreover, it’s time for VVP to remind both Trump and the so called coalition of the willing that America and the Western world that the US is a co-belligerent in this war, so that Romanian military base should suffice for deterrence purposes.
In case of a conflict, the first thing Ruskie rockets will do is flatten the area worse than Choos did in Gaza. I'd be more weary of Yanks military base in Serbia and Germany. These can host anything and are far enough for planes to flee before the threat arrives.
I concur Steve but do not have a strong conviction that a business deal and compromise of all the not a war's stated goals is not in the pipeline but who really knows what is going on. The lack of a response to the proposed Zangezur corridor (TRIPP) and the possible linking up of it to a being prepared path through the Golan and southern Syria to Kurd/US controlled NE Syria for who knows what nefarious actions by the local neighbourhood for hire takfiris and Chechnyans to boot without forgetting the country masquerading as a mafia mob Azerbaijan along for the ride as well. Should be of deep concern for the Kremlin but nary a move to be seen besides what should have been wiped out three years ago in Odessa the other day.
The goal will be to get a "peace" to rearm and wait for a replacement to Putin who will be more hardcore and less patient then in 2-5 years get their war on with Russia.
In all of Putin's 25 years as leader of Russia he has yet to be caught lying..I can't say the same for any of the U.S. Presidents in office during that same time span.
What we're witnessing is typical of the way that all U.S. negotiations go. The U.S. almost always debates what was said or agreed to. That leaves it the opportunity to settle the disagreement by choosing its position is the correct one.
Putin is setting himself up to give the U.S. the opportunity to employ the Taiwan Relations Act against him.
He's
Putin going to have to take more territory and drive the Neo Nazis out of it.
Trump doesn't want peace. He can't have peace. Trump sincerely believes in U.S. hegemony.
These so called negotiations are all about the villification of Russia. They are doing their best to tie Russia's hands which is a complete replay everything that happened between 2014 to now.
Trump only wants to talk now because the U.S. is losing. He's not helping you. He's keeping you occupied on diversionary activities chasing false hope.
Preventing that outcome was half the reason for the war. It doesn't take much insight to expect NATO to encourage future Ukrainian governments to violate whatever treaty terms there may be, nor to expect provocation elsewhere. By the end of Trump's presidential term, China will be recognized as the leading world power by everyone other than the US gov itself. This will leave the US and Russia still set up for future conflict for the #2 spot.
I think the more plain state of affairs is that this round of negotiations didn't produce a stopping point. Though it appears to have marked EU's capitulation on some of the Trump admin trade agenda.
The natural stopping point will be when Donetsk is captured and - brutal and tragic - when Ukraine is demographically exhausted. That will happen naturally over time.
Russia's leverage over the US lies outside of Ukraine, in Iran. US leverage over Russia is is contribution to and encouragement or discouragement of infrastructure strikes by Kiev into Russia.
The real puzzle is what's in it for Euro heads of state.
"The real puzzle is what's in it for Euro heads of state."
That's a very intriguing question. Yet they aint autokrats, they still mostly depend on party structures to rise and get installed. So there must be a rather wide network of corruption and compromat. And brain fog among the party soldiers, not everyone is attractable by money or can be blackmailed. Or can they? Or is the narcissistic attitude among this kakistokracy so strong they would sell their souls for a bit of illusionary power?
I'm afraid Russia will have to live with hostile NATO and its friends closer to Russian borders than before SMO. Ukraine as a truly neutral, disarmed and politically dependent from Russia state is unlikely to materialize. Sweden and Finland, the new NATO members with a long northern border, need attention, too. A can of worms has been opened.
This is the result of Russian dithering and indecision.
If Russia "will have to live with hostile NATO" there will simply be no peace treaty and the current situation will drag on till Ukraine loses the whole Black Sea littoral. Already, India and China are moving closer to each other. Then, the issue of Suwalki corridor will come up again. Latvian fragility? It's really an opened can of worms.
Any deployment of Western troops inside Ukraine will be an unacceptable slippery slope for Russia, exactly for the same reason why they decided to start the ‘Special Operation’. Once US/NATO is enabled to send in troops they will compromise whatever is left of Ukraine and use it as springboard for an everlasting war. There are a lot of indications showing that this is exactly what they have in mind. Just like in the decade before this conflict started, they are already doing the preparations for a next phase.
1, They are systematically preparing Moldova and Romania to be turned into the new proxy states. In both nations the EU is heavily involved in lawless acts to manipulate the governments and elections there. They are focusing on these two nations for their geographic positions and the fact that both of these countries are poor, underdeveloped and are saturated with corruption just like Ukraine. The political leadership once softened up can be bought by the pound. A color revolution is in the process in Serbia, very close to a full blown revolution to destabilize the government there. In Hungary a Mr. Peter Magyar is heavily financed and supported by Brussels to undermine the Orban government. Ukraine just stopped the oil deliveries from Russia to Hungary, economically undermining the stability of that nation while Hungary might stop pushing electricity toward Ukraine as an answer.
2, The whole of Western Europe is gearing up for heavy weapon production as we speak but it will take them some years to get there. The Sentinel-1 data photographed from space shows that a third of the major weapon manufacturing locations in the West are growing at accelerated rates. The ASAP program with 88 locations and $500 million investment is building roads to move heavy machinery to the locations. $1.5 billion is targeted for long range rockets and drones. Hungary is already setting up a factory to produce 1.1 million 155mm shells with the help of German Rheinmetall. The production is supposed to reach the 1.1 million shells next year but this will not necessarily happen. Supply and the necessary heavy machinery sounds difficult to all arrive on such short order. In Germany, Schrobenhausen a $5.6 billion dollar program is aiming to produce 1000 Patriot GEM-T missiles per year. In Norway the military industrial complex is also gearing up. Rheinmetall wants to take over an old VW factory for the assembly of Leopard tanks and heavy military vehicles at Osnabrück, Germany.
Western European nations are reshaping their industries with maximum speed with war on their feverish minds, incorporating sectors of nonmilitary productivity. They are hoping that Russia will watch this process silently and wait forever for the preparations to finish.
Why not invest in projects that generate a positive net ROI instead?
I don't think a tank or fighter jet generates any appreciable returns for the governments that purchase them, and both cost considerable money to operate.
You are right. They are just expensive paperweight.
You're missing the point. It's a net negative, although some persons make out like bandits (tech often results in higher margins, which is a related by slightly different animal than ROI).
On the other hand, investment in net positive ROI projects results in more plunder all around.
Well, let’s hope Russia does not permit any of that; otherwise, what was the point of it all.
What with the Americans building their biggest ever military base on Romania, upon which they will undoubtedly house missiles and early warning systems of various kinds, I see no reason for any other forms of deterrence. After all, Romania is no more than a hop, skip and jump from Russian borders. Moreover, it’s time for VVP to remind both Trump and the so called coalition of the willing that America and the Western world that the US is a co-belligerent in this war, so that Romanian military base should suffice for deterrence purposes.
They are also building a giant military airport in Romania.
relics of the past and posturing mostly.
In case of a conflict, the first thing Ruskie rockets will do is flatten the area worse than Choos did in Gaza. I'd be more weary of Yanks military base in Serbia and Germany. These can host anything and are far enough for planes to flee before the threat arrives.
At best, Romania it is a spying operation.
This is Stupiditeit of Russia if nothing learn from Serbia perspective, Kremlin end FSB selling Russian to mercenaries!!!!
I don't understand
West, and specially USA never, ever respected a treaty in all their f... existence.
Russians, I think, even have a word for that.
A word they officially used to describe the inability of USA for respecting a treaty.
So?
So, now, we are speaking about a possible treaty.
And when USA and West will fuck Russia once more, will Poutine say again he was naïve ?
In November 21, Russia launched an ultimatum in 4 point.
In 02/22 Russia Launched a war in claiming war aims.
In a war, the aggressor which not succeed in his goal loose the war.
If Poutine agree to a half result with notorious liars and cheaters, it mean that Russia lost this war.
Minsk-3 O goodie!
I concur Steve but do not have a strong conviction that a business deal and compromise of all the not a war's stated goals is not in the pipeline but who really knows what is going on. The lack of a response to the proposed Zangezur corridor (TRIPP) and the possible linking up of it to a being prepared path through the Golan and southern Syria to Kurd/US controlled NE Syria for who knows what nefarious actions by the local neighbourhood for hire takfiris and Chechnyans to boot without forgetting the country masquerading as a mafia mob Azerbaijan along for the ride as well. Should be of deep concern for the Kremlin but nary a move to be seen besides what should have been wiped out three years ago in Odessa the other day.
The goal will be to get a "peace" to rearm and wait for a replacement to Putin who will be more hardcore and less patient then in 2-5 years get their war on with Russia.
In all of Putin's 25 years as leader of Russia he has yet to be caught lying..I can't say the same for any of the U.S. Presidents in office during that same time span.
I believe Putin.
What we're witnessing is typical of the way that all U.S. negotiations go. The U.S. almost always debates what was said or agreed to. That leaves it the opportunity to settle the disagreement by choosing its position is the correct one.
Putin is setting himself up to give the U.S. the opportunity to employ the Taiwan Relations Act against him.
He's
Putin going to have to take more territory and drive the Neo Nazis out of it.
Trump doesn't want peace. He can't have peace. Trump sincerely believes in U.S. hegemony.
These so called negotiations are all about the villification of Russia. They are doing their best to tie Russia's hands which is a complete replay everything that happened between 2014 to now.
Trump only wants to talk now because the U.S. is losing. He's not helping you. He's keeping you occupied on diversionary activities chasing false hope.
Preventing that outcome was half the reason for the war. It doesn't take much insight to expect NATO to encourage future Ukrainian governments to violate whatever treaty terms there may be, nor to expect provocation elsewhere. By the end of Trump's presidential term, China will be recognized as the leading world power by everyone other than the US gov itself. This will leave the US and Russia still set up for future conflict for the #2 spot.
I think the more plain state of affairs is that this round of negotiations didn't produce a stopping point. Though it appears to have marked EU's capitulation on some of the Trump admin trade agenda.
The natural stopping point will be when Donetsk is captured and - brutal and tragic - when Ukraine is demographically exhausted. That will happen naturally over time.
Russia's leverage over the US lies outside of Ukraine, in Iran. US leverage over Russia is is contribution to and encouragement or discouragement of infrastructure strikes by Kiev into Russia.
The real puzzle is what's in it for Euro heads of state.
"The real puzzle is what's in it for Euro heads of state."
That's a very intriguing question. Yet they aint autokrats, they still mostly depend on party structures to rise and get installed. So there must be a rather wide network of corruption and compromat. And brain fog among the party soldiers, not everyone is attractable by money or can be blackmailed. Or can they? Or is the narcissistic attitude among this kakistokracy so strong they would sell their souls for a bit of illusionary power?
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/