Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever.
It was just paper that was signed... Wars don't end with "deals" but with peace treaties, approved by the Congress. Not to mentioned that this was not even declared to be a war, but a "military operation", which can resume whenever.
I left open the possibility of the MoU being sabotaged in my analysis, but I believe that Trump 2.0 considers the odds of that happening to be low, otherwise it wouldn't go through with the signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday.
I'm also not a "formalist" in the sense of believing that a war hasn't ended until there's a Congressionally approved peace treaty. By that standard, the Korean War is still raging, which we all know it isn't. It's not formally over but de facto it's frozen.
Unlike North Korea, however, Iran is willing to enter into economic and financial arrangements with the US under the guise of reparations and reconstruction. That's not something that Iran would be open to if it expected hostilities to resume.
Iran has the most valuable bushel of carrots in the world—a share of Qatar’s LNG exports as they share the gas field. But that’s why this war was so dumb—Qatar wants to help America cut a deal with Iran and the deal involves billions of dollars in cash flow via LNG exports. The very clear obstacle is that Netanyahu considers any deal that strengthens the current regime as unacceptable. America’s only interest is that Iran stops developing nukes…we shouldn’t care about the current regime one way or another.
We lost because of no regime change. That said, in the grand scheme of things the loss isn’t that consequential. And we achieved regime change in Iraq but the costs were waaaaaay too high. So I will take a cheap loss over an expensive win any day of the week!!
At best, we will get an MOU signed, and then we can stand and wait for Israeli violations. As for the Third Gulf War, I think it is not over yet. If I have to pick winners and losers, then I see no winner, two losers, and a large bunch of suffering neutrals.
Not ever gonna happen. 1) Trump is a pathological liar and he and the USA are not trustworthy. 2) Trump dissed Bibi publicly and harshly. This will not go unpunished. 3) Israel not only was left out of the "deal," but accomplished none of its goals, therefore, the genocidal entity will not stop attacking Lebanon nor Iran. 4) this is only an memorandum of understanding, not a "deal." Upon reading it, the USA will not and cannot agree to all of Iran's demands. 5) there will be no tolls to pass through the Straights of Hormuz, but there will be something like a "management fee."
The great, self-annointed peace-maker may not survive Israel's wrath.
Talk is cheap—Trump hasn’t stood up to Bibi so far and in fact he’s enabled him by cleaning up the mess he made by striking Doha. Miriam Adelson picked the right horse and she’s gotten everything she desired…and she cannot be happy with the results! But Netanyahu needed to have a plan to prevent Iran shutting down Hormuz and so that’s another Netanyahu blunder to go along with 10/7.
This is just another TACO, he is also closer to becoming a bigger lame duck, while the Israel lobby remains. Combine that with the impossibility for the Zionists to make peace with the Palestinians, and now Iran has hugely increased strategic control over global trade and international standing, the declining global hegemon has to be the biggest loser.
Moderates in Iran could only have been weakened, not strengthened, unless one believes the US won. How?
Regional peace is just as far away, sadly, but the above outcome was inevitable when the first shot was fired.
America will tear up any deal at any moment, and Israel will tirelessly work to destroy it, so in a sense it doesn't much matter what the terms are - they won't be honoured outside Iran. I assume Iran knows that, and is just playing along to show that they want to make a good peace, knowing it is only a pause while the Empire plans another attack, likely another colour revolution attempt.
I think you're correct that the "hot" stage in this war is over. Israel and the US have run out of interceptors and Bibi doesn't want the embarrassment of having missiles rain down on tel Aviv.
But as for the battle to control Iran's oil, nuclear capabilities and defense of Gaza and Lebanon, that "war" has not ended. Rather, I think it will morph into one of bribery, manipulation and spycraft.
How Iran reacts to Israel's continuing assault on Lebanon, the Westbank and Gaza will describe how throughly the leadership have been bought off or compromised.
Also, the last time Iran signed a deal with the US Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon. Perhaps they will increase the bombing raids this time.
Andrew. Honestly, you have a strange reading of events.
You talk about this war as if the Iranians started it and as if it were an internal war between radicals and reformists.
No.
This is a war launched by the USA and Israel.
If they haven't won, being the aggressors, they have lost.
Now, as you say, Israel achieved none of its objectives — it is the immense loser.
As for the USA. What did they gain that they didn't have before this war? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
What did they concede to the Iranians that they didn't have before this war? A lot.
So let's be very clear and factual:
Israel: disaster.
USA: defeat.
Iran: victory.
It's that simple.
From there, the radicals are not madmen wanting to destroy their country to please Escobar and allow Russia to sell its oil at a high price or help the Yuan become a major reserve currency. They won this war and Iran derives substantial benefits from it. No reason to continue. And they are ready to respond in the highly probable case that USrael does not keep its word.
I have already noticed that you have no sympathy for Iran, but in this case, I think it biases the accuracy of your assessment.
1. "It can therefore be concluded that the moderates beat the hardliners in Iran’s deep state power struggle, but this was due to the US and Israel killing dozens of top hardline figures,"
I thought that the US,was killing moderates, in hopes of making a deal impossible?
2. Israel will do what it has to do to blow up any peace.
The war is by no means over. Netanyahoo will do anything to prevent any lasting peace with Iran.
His persistent bombardment of Lebanon ist typical for this strategy. It is not about Lebanon, not even about Hizbullah.
It is about provoking Iran into retaliation
'Israel' needs Iran as an ACTIVE ally, as was the case under Pahlavi.
This is the only way to contain the Arabs when pursuing the ultimate goal of 'greater israel' - the zionist raison d'etre!
His only way to achieve an active alliance with Iran is to completely eradicate all traces of the Islamic Republic and to reinstate the Pahlavis, their willing puppets.
For evidence, check the family ties of the exiled Pahlavi junior and check the flags held up in pahlavist rallies: 'Israel's' and the Sun and Lion Flag of former Iran.
Is the IRGC also agreed to this so-called "deal" or is this this just the Iranian Regime political arm?
It looks like the IRGC tried to derail the signing last Friday when they launched drones at commercial ships and which CentCom claimed to have shot down all of them.
Further, Israel is not going to hold back from responding to attacks on Northern Israel by hezbollah, regardless of what Trump "orders" Netanyahu to do.
The IRGC has been uncharacteristically restrained over the last month despite reportedly disagreeing with some of the proposed MoU terms.
This in turn suggests that they were either humbled by the war or, more likely in my view, relatively but not entirely (key difference) subordinated to the moderates.
I'm literally laughing out loud, you sound like a self-parody of my trolls! You're of course blocked but thanks for the chuckles! I could feel the hatred oozing through every keystroke and I just love provoking such a reaction from random people just for sharing my opinion!
It's especially hilarious that this deranged troll smeared me as a "ZIOANGLOSAXON 5th COLUMN" despite me explicitly concluding that "Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever" lol
"Who Won The Third Gulf War?"
It is not over yet.
Pakistan, the mediator, confirmed that an arrangement was agreed to for ending the war:
https://x.com/CMShehbaz/status/2066268332832194810
It was just paper that was signed... Wars don't end with "deals" but with peace treaties, approved by the Congress. Not to mentioned that this was not even declared to be a war, but a "military operation", which can resume whenever.
I left open the possibility of the MoU being sabotaged in my analysis, but I believe that Trump 2.0 considers the odds of that happening to be low, otherwise it wouldn't go through with the signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday.
I'm also not a "formalist" in the sense of believing that a war hasn't ended until there's a Congressionally approved peace treaty. By that standard, the Korean War is still raging, which we all know it isn't. It's not formally over but de facto it's frozen.
Unlike North Korea, however, Iran is willing to enter into economic and financial arrangements with the US under the guise of reparations and reconstruction. That's not something that Iran would be open to if it expected hostilities to resume.
Iran has the most valuable bushel of carrots in the world—a share of Qatar’s LNG exports as they share the gas field. But that’s why this war was so dumb—Qatar wants to help America cut a deal with Iran and the deal involves billions of dollars in cash flow via LNG exports. The very clear obstacle is that Netanyahu considers any deal that strengthens the current regime as unacceptable. America’s only interest is that Iran stops developing nukes…we shouldn’t care about the current regime one way or another.
We lost because of no regime change. That said, in the grand scheme of things the loss isn’t that consequential. And we achieved regime change in Iraq but the costs were waaaaaay too high. So I will take a cheap loss over an expensive win any day of the week!!
At best, we will get an MOU signed, and then we can stand and wait for Israeli violations. As for the Third Gulf War, I think it is not over yet. If I have to pick winners and losers, then I see no winner, two losers, and a large bunch of suffering neutrals.
Andrew, when you say the deal involves "reopening the strait", I assume that includes the removal of the US naval blockade as well, right?
Yes, Trump announced last night that it was immediately removed:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116750587569914985
Not ever gonna happen. 1) Trump is a pathological liar and he and the USA are not trustworthy. 2) Trump dissed Bibi publicly and harshly. This will not go unpunished. 3) Israel not only was left out of the "deal," but accomplished none of its goals, therefore, the genocidal entity will not stop attacking Lebanon nor Iran. 4) this is only an memorandum of understanding, not a "deal." Upon reading it, the USA will not and cannot agree to all of Iran's demands. 5) there will be no tolls to pass through the Straights of Hormuz, but there will be something like a "management fee."
The great, self-annointed peace-maker may not survive Israel's wrath.
Talk is cheap—Trump hasn’t stood up to Bibi so far and in fact he’s enabled him by cleaning up the mess he made by striking Doha. Miriam Adelson picked the right horse and she’s gotten everything she desired…and she cannot be happy with the results! But Netanyahu needed to have a plan to prevent Iran shutting down Hormuz and so that’s another Netanyahu blunder to go along with 10/7.
This is just another TACO, he is also closer to becoming a bigger lame duck, while the Israel lobby remains. Combine that with the impossibility for the Zionists to make peace with the Palestinians, and now Iran has hugely increased strategic control over global trade and international standing, the declining global hegemon has to be the biggest loser.
Moderates in Iran could only have been weakened, not strengthened, unless one believes the US won. How?
Regional peace is just as far away, sadly, but the above outcome was inevitable when the first shot was fired.
America will tear up any deal at any moment, and Israel will tirelessly work to destroy it, so in a sense it doesn't much matter what the terms are - they won't be honoured outside Iran. I assume Iran knows that, and is just playing along to show that they want to make a good peace, knowing it is only a pause while the Empire plans another attack, likely another colour revolution attempt.
I think you're correct that the "hot" stage in this war is over. Israel and the US have run out of interceptors and Bibi doesn't want the embarrassment of having missiles rain down on tel Aviv.
But as for the battle to control Iran's oil, nuclear capabilities and defense of Gaza and Lebanon, that "war" has not ended. Rather, I think it will morph into one of bribery, manipulation and spycraft.
How Iran reacts to Israel's continuing assault on Lebanon, the Westbank and Gaza will describe how throughly the leadership have been bought off or compromised.
Also, the last time Iran signed a deal with the US Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon. Perhaps they will increase the bombing raids this time.
Andrew. Honestly, you have a strange reading of events.
You talk about this war as if the Iranians started it and as if it were an internal war between radicals and reformists.
No.
This is a war launched by the USA and Israel.
If they haven't won, being the aggressors, they have lost.
Now, as you say, Israel achieved none of its objectives — it is the immense loser.
As for the USA. What did they gain that they didn't have before this war? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
What did they concede to the Iranians that they didn't have before this war? A lot.
So let's be very clear and factual:
Israel: disaster.
USA: defeat.
Iran: victory.
It's that simple.
From there, the radicals are not madmen wanting to destroy their country to please Escobar and allow Russia to sell its oil at a high price or help the Yuan become a major reserve currency. They won this war and Iran derives substantial benefits from it. No reason to continue. And they are ready to respond in the highly probable case that USrael does not keep its word.
I have already noticed that you have no sympathy for Iran, but in this case, I think it biases the accuracy of your assessment.
1. "It can therefore be concluded that the moderates beat the hardliners in Iran’s deep state power struggle, but this was due to the US and Israel killing dozens of top hardline figures,"
I thought that the US,was killing moderates, in hopes of making a deal impossible?
2. Israel will do what it has to do to blow up any peace.
nobody it aint over yet. Who can define wat the war is over??
A MOU signed by the ULTIMATUM MASTER is meaningless
The war is by no means over. Netanyahoo will do anything to prevent any lasting peace with Iran.
His persistent bombardment of Lebanon ist typical for this strategy. It is not about Lebanon, not even about Hizbullah.
It is about provoking Iran into retaliation
'Israel' needs Iran as an ACTIVE ally, as was the case under Pahlavi.
This is the only way to contain the Arabs when pursuing the ultimate goal of 'greater israel' - the zionist raison d'etre!
His only way to achieve an active alliance with Iran is to completely eradicate all traces of the Islamic Republic and to reinstate the Pahlavis, their willing puppets.
For evidence, check the family ties of the exiled Pahlavi junior and check the flags held up in pahlavist rallies: 'Israel's' and the Sun and Lion Flag of former Iran.
Side by side!
Simplistic. From such a distance - in geography but above all in access and knowledge.
Is the IRGC also agreed to this so-called "deal" or is this this just the Iranian Regime political arm?
It looks like the IRGC tried to derail the signing last Friday when they launched drones at commercial ships and which CentCom claimed to have shot down all of them.
Further, Israel is not going to hold back from responding to attacks on Northern Israel by hezbollah, regardless of what Trump "orders" Netanyahu to do.
The IRGC has been uncharacteristically restrained over the last month despite reportedly disagreeing with some of the proposed MoU terms.
This in turn suggests that they were either humbled by the war or, more likely in my view, relatively but not entirely (key difference) subordinated to the moderates.
I'm literally laughing out loud, you sound like a self-parody of my trolls! You're of course blocked but thanks for the chuckles! I could feel the hatred oozing through every keystroke and I just love provoking such a reaction from random people just for sharing my opinion!
It's especially hilarious that this deranged troll smeared me as a "ZIOANGLOSAXON 5th COLUMN" despite me explicitly concluding that "Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever" lol