Why’d Lula Indefinitely Postpone His Trip To China & Not Hold A Virtual Summit Instead?
Abruptly calling the entire trip off after months of planning and having already agreed to so much of importance beforehand just because of one person’s “sickness” suggests that something else is at play behind the scenes. It appears as though Lula realized that the optics of him meeting with his Chinese counterpart – even if only virtually –on the same week as the US’ second so-called “Summit for Democracy” would offend Biden, who’s his priority partner if he had to choose between those two.
Brazilian President Lula indefinitely postponed his trip to China that was slated for this week due to a case of “mild pneumonia”, which is highly suspicious since there’s no credible reason why he couldn’t have held a virtual summit with his Chinese counterpart instead. After all, both leaders already planned their schedules accordingly before this “unexpected illness”, so it therefore follows that they’d be free to do so had Lula truly wanted to. This raises very serious questions that will now be addressed.
The Associated Press reported that the presidential palace released a statement last Thursday indicating that 20 bilateral agreements were expected to be signed during Lula’s trip, which proves that everything was already decided in advance between their diplomats as is customary ahead of state visits. The ministerial and business delegation that was supposed to travel with him could have still departed for the People’s Republic while he stayed behind to “recover” and meet virtually with President Xi instead.
Abruptly calling the entire trip off after months of planning and having already agreed to so much of importance beforehand just because of one person’s “sickness” suggests that something else is at play behind the scenes. It appears as though Lula realized that the optics of him meeting with his Chinese counterpart – even if only virtually –on the same week as the US’ second so-called “Summit for Democracy” would offend Biden, who’s his priority partner if he had to choose between those two.
This isn’t groundless speculation either since the Brazilian leader praised that upcoming event in their joint statement that was published after his trip to DC in early February, which is also same one where he condemned Russia. The third sentence proclaims that “As leaders of the two largest democracies in the Americas, President Biden and President Lula pledged to work together to strengthen democratic institutions and welcomed the second Summit for Democracy to be held in March 2023.”
Furthermore, there’s already a precedent for him prioritizing the US’ sensitivities over Brazil’s objective interests with third parties after he reportedly delayed the docking of an Iranian warship last month so that it wouldn’t take place at the same time as he was visiting DC. It therefore wouldn’t be surprising if he also decided to “indefinitely postpone” his planned trip to China so that it wouldn’t take place on the same week as the second “Summit for Democracy”.
Despite the disinformation campaign being waged by his supporters nowadays gaslighting that he remains fervently committed to multipolarity, the argument can compellingly be made that Lula recalibrated his worldview in recent years to the point where it’s now closely aligned with the US’. Not only did he condemn Russia together with Biden, but he also had Brazil vote against it at the UN instead of remaining neutral like his fellow BRICS partners did.
Lula’s so-called “peace plan” for Ukraine is also poles apart from China’s in spite of his supporters’ disinformation campaign claiming otherwise as proven by that aforementioned vote demanding Russia’s full and immediate withdrawal without preconditions from all the territory that Kiev claims as its own. His follow-up call with Zelensky reaffirmed this politically unfriendly fact, as did him downplaying the causes of this conflict, which is veritably a NATO-Russian proxy war despite him refusing to admit that.
Brazil’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN subsequently shocked the Global South after he publicly expressed annoyance at Moscow discussing Russophobia at the Security Council, which showed that his country isn’t truly sincere in repudiating racism like Article 4 of its Constitution mandates it to. Foreign Minister Vieira then strongly implied that President Putin would be arrested if he ever traveled to Brazil again after the “International Criminal Court” issued a warrant for his arrest.
In the same interview where he ominously conveyed this implied threat, Vieira admitted that “President Lula did not present a concrete program or a concrete peace plan” for Ukraine, thus debunking his side’s disinformation speculating that Brazil had some unique suggestion for ending the conflict. The only thing that Lula ever had in mind was to convince truly neutral countries to reverse their stance in favor of supporting Kiev’s so-called “peace formula” that includes a “special tribunal” for prosecuting Russia.
Considering the indisputable alignment of his worldview and Biden’s when it comes to the most geostrategically significant conflict since World War II, there’s little doubt that Lula’s stance towards comparatively less significant issues like economic ties with China are also aligned with the US’. With that in mind, observers can’t rule out the possibility that Lula “indefinitely postponed” his trip to China and refused to hold a virtual summit with President Xi instead due to his fear of offending Biden.
It's unimportant whether or not he really has “mild pneumonia” like the official narrative claims since that has nothing to do with why the ministerial and business delegation was told not to travel to China. 20 bilateral agreements were already clinched and just waiting his signature, which the Brazilian Ambassador or his Foreign Minister could have done in his place. Pushing everything back “indefinitely” was therefore a voluntary choice, one that was arguably done for public relations reasons.
Lula didn’t want Biden to be upset by him meeting with President Xi – even if only virtually – in the same week as the US leader was holding his second “Summit for Democracy” that those two felt was significant enough to praise in the third sentence of their joint statement last month. Having already reportedly delayed the docking of an Iranian warship that would have otherwise coincided with his trip to DC, the precedent was thus established for him “indefinitely postponing” his trip to China too.
This insight, for as “politically inconvenient” as it may be for his supporters to countenance, accounts for why Lula chose not to dispatch his ministerial and business delegation to China this week after everything was already agreed to as well as why he refused to hold a virtual summit with President Xi. Simply put, when forced to choose between China and the US, Lula picked the latter without a second thought since that declining unipolar hegemon’s liberal-globalist worldview closely aligns with his own.