The US-Polish divide over this issue isn’t all that important so long as Tusk and Sikorski don’t repeat their irresponsible past statements about Trump being a “Russian agent” and a “proto-fascist”.
Another plausible theory behind the drone intrusion is a Ukrainian false flag operation. Ukraine keeps trying to drag NATO into the war against Russia, this was even confirmed by former Polish president Andrzej Duda in his recent interview [https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/773991/andrzej-duda-o-rakiecie-w-przewodowie-zelenski-chcial-nas-wciagnac-w-wojne.html, https://dzienniknarodowy.pl/duda-zmienia-ton-ukraina-chce-wciagnac-wszystkich-do-wojny/]. They still insist that the missile, which killed two Poles in Przewodow in 2022, was Russian, against an official NATO statement in this respect. Ukrainians have a large collection of Gerbera decoy drones, which landed or were shot down on their territory. Reprogramming, fueling and launching 19 of them towards Poland is feasible. Pictures of the drones published in Polish media show some of them held together with duct tape. Even with notoriously low quality standards of Russian military equipment, I don't think they use duct tape to hold the fuselage together. Surprisingly, Polish public opinion online (with trolls of all kinds) favors the Ukrainian false flag theory (38%), ahead of Russian provocation (34%) and Polish government conspiracy (15%): https://ocdn.eu/pulscms-transforms/1/ULyk9kpTURBXy9iZjg5MmMyZWI5NWE3YTdiYzBiYjMyNWU1YzY5ZmE3Yi5qcGeRkwLNBWQA3gACoTAGoTEB
I'm personally skeptical of that theory. It presupposes that Zelensky didn't learn his lesson from Przewodow per Duda's revelation that Poland knew the whole time that he was lying about Russian involvement and thought, contrary to Nawrocki repeatedly reaffirming that he won't authorize the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine, that he could successfully drag Poland into the conflict this time.
Moreover, referencing Przewodow, we can recall that Poland quickly put the kibbosh on claims of Russian involvement, unlike now where they're insisting that these were indeed Russian drones and a deliberate provocation by Moscow in spite of this risking a scandal with the US after what Trump differently concluded. As much as I dislike Zelensky and modern-day Ukraine, I honestly don't think this was a false flag by them.
Another point is that this whole incident sparked panic across NATO, which we know from Western media reports citing unnamed official sources, regarding both the bloc's inability to defend against drones and the US' refusal to support a more muscular response from them as a whole afterwards.
If this was really a Ukrainian provocation just like Zelensky's claims after the Przewodow incident were, then Poland or NATO as a whole could easily pull a page from that book by quickly dismissing claims of a Russian provocation and pointing to the Ukrainian trace in order to "save face" and uphold the myth that they can defend themselves.
That's not happening even though it would make the most sense from each of their perspectives if a Ukrainian false flag was indeed considered to be the most credible explanation. To the contrary, they're being candidly introspective and doing whatever they can to ramp up their preexisting anti-drone defense plans.
"If this was really a Ukrainian provocation just like Zelensky's claims after the Przewodow incident were, then Poland or NATO as a whole could easily pull a page from that book by quickly dismissing claims of a Russian provocation and pointing to the Ukrainian trace"
Przewodow incident was easy to analyze. S-300 missile could not possibly fly from Russia. Gerbera drone with an extra fuel in a bag tank placed in front compartment, maybe can do it. It is much harder to find the culprit this time and any reasonable commentator would be wise to avoid absolutes.
I don't mind anyone being skeptical, I just think that in this case it really was caused by jamming, not a false flag. The duct-taped decoys reinforce that point since they'd presumably not be equipped with anti-jamming technology unlike the real, armed drones.
To be clear, I assign about equal probability to jamming and false flag explanations. Gerberas are easy to jam, as this doesn't really affect their mission. Their presence in the air on a course potentially leading to a valuable target is sufficient. The duct tape indicates reuse after crash landing during the mission or a rough handling or crash during delivery to original launch position on Russian side. Also, the range problem is not easy to explain given that one of the drones was found in Oleśno, which is 400 km from the Ukrainian border. This should be out of range even with an extra fuel bag, unless it was launched from Kaliningrad Oblast nearby, which was not suggested by anyone yet.
Hysteria in Europe caused by the drones is a political manna from heaven. The ruling class wants to exploit it to the fullest until strong evidence one way or the other emerges.
Russia has been using crude decoys for a while so the duct tape isn't surprising, while the range can be accounted for by Russia clandestinely launching them from Belarus ahead of their their-upcoming Zapad 2025 drills (perhaps even without Lukashenko's permission exactly as he insisted he didn't know about Russia's SMO plans during their drills at the time).
In 1939, Germans invaded Poland and had lists of every intellectual worker. Behind German army, there were special killers SS groups which assassinated methodically, in each city, each town, each village, as teachers, professors, law men, intellectual workers, elected people. They killed dozens thousands of them, systematically.
They wanted a Poland freed of intellectuals just remaining quasi slave people leaded by catholic priests to serve the german settlers.
Right on cue. If this drone incursion does not get the desired result, the europeans will engineer another, more lethal incursion until they get the Americans to come fight for them.
Tell me just one only war when USA has been supposed to fight for an European country and this country looked at it in eating popcorn?
Never.
The only war USA made was only for THEIR own interest and always against very weak enemy or at the end of the bal when others did already all the hard job.
When USA arrived in Europe, USSR already destroyed ALONE 80% of Axis forces( Germans and their European allies).
When USA fought Japan, 80% and the best of Japanese army was in China and UK fought in Birmania. USA had just to fight 20% of Japanese army.Only in South Pacific.
USA never ever fought in place of another country.
Ho yes, South Korea, South Vietnam, Koweït and Israël.
We've been through this before. Europeans certainly were begging for the Americans to come fight for them in the past, just as they are begging right now.
Yes they asked to fight WITH( not for) them because it was the US interest to do that and indeed USA finished by coming in those war. But only after letting European bleed to death and they came each time when ennemi was completely exhausted and they took it all.
Rather than trying to hyperbolate a minor incursion possibly due to electronic interference, both Polish and UN leaders should be satisfied that Russia (or Ukraine?) provided a perfect trial for Polish air defence mechanisms and apparently it was successful. But what was the real score? 3/3? 3/4? 3/10 drones shot down?
If those drones were jammed which seems to be the “plausible” explanation what are they doing over Poland’s air space to begin with. There is almost no real military target that side of Ukraine. It’s also a very circuitous route getting to Kiev. If these drones can be jammed so easily Russia needs to do better when considering the countries around Ukraine. Trump is fine with the current arrangement as far as troops in Poland and the US is no longer sending its taxpayers money there. All new missles or military might is being purchased by NATO and then handed to Ukraine. There is still quite if deficit the NATO countries have to make up to equal what the US taxpayer has given to this war. Trump just raised tariffs on India and told EU countries to quit buying energy from Russia. It might take a minute to replace Russia but it will happen and relying on just China will sink Russia’s economy even further and finally bring this war to an end.
1. Some Russian drones were launched against Ukraine from Belarus ahead of the then-upcoming Zapad 2025 drills (despite Russia's official denial and potentially without the approval of Belarus, which as its junior partner, couldn't realistically stop it anyhow)
2. Trump's diplomacy with Lukashenko in connection with his talks with Putin raises the chances of a potential deal that could possibly lead to Belarus being "brought in from the cold" via sanctions relief, ergo why the West might be downplay the above speculation
3. Russia is known to send decoy drones, some of which are flimsily made and presumably aren't outfitted with anti-jamming technology since their only purpose is to divert air defenses and electronic warfare from the actual munitions-carrying drones/missiles
4. It was these decoys, which Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski described as "duds" in a recent interview, that veered off course into Polish airspace as a result of what I believe to have been NATO jamming
5. There actually are quite a few targets of interest for Russia in Western Ukraine too since that's far behind the front lines and close to NATO logistics chains so it's not exactly unexpected that Russia would target military facilities there
No more US$ to Europe. Period. If DE and PL want to use rough rhetoric towards their neighbors that's not an American problem to fix.
Another plausible theory behind the drone intrusion is a Ukrainian false flag operation. Ukraine keeps trying to drag NATO into the war against Russia, this was even confirmed by former Polish president Andrzej Duda in his recent interview [https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/773991/andrzej-duda-o-rakiecie-w-przewodowie-zelenski-chcial-nas-wciagnac-w-wojne.html, https://dzienniknarodowy.pl/duda-zmienia-ton-ukraina-chce-wciagnac-wszystkich-do-wojny/]. They still insist that the missile, which killed two Poles in Przewodow in 2022, was Russian, against an official NATO statement in this respect. Ukrainians have a large collection of Gerbera decoy drones, which landed or were shot down on their territory. Reprogramming, fueling and launching 19 of them towards Poland is feasible. Pictures of the drones published in Polish media show some of them held together with duct tape. Even with notoriously low quality standards of Russian military equipment, I don't think they use duct tape to hold the fuselage together. Surprisingly, Polish public opinion online (with trolls of all kinds) favors the Ukrainian false flag theory (38%), ahead of Russian provocation (34%) and Polish government conspiracy (15%): https://ocdn.eu/pulscms-transforms/1/ULyk9kpTURBXy9iZjg5MmMyZWI5NWE3YTdiYzBiYjMyNWU1YzY5ZmE3Yi5qcGeRkwLNBWQA3gACoTAGoTEB
I'm personally skeptical of that theory. It presupposes that Zelensky didn't learn his lesson from Przewodow per Duda's revelation that Poland knew the whole time that he was lying about Russian involvement and thought, contrary to Nawrocki repeatedly reaffirming that he won't authorize the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine, that he could successfully drag Poland into the conflict this time.
Moreover, referencing Przewodow, we can recall that Poland quickly put the kibbosh on claims of Russian involvement, unlike now where they're insisting that these were indeed Russian drones and a deliberate provocation by Moscow in spite of this risking a scandal with the US after what Trump differently concluded. As much as I dislike Zelensky and modern-day Ukraine, I honestly don't think this was a false flag by them.
Another point is that this whole incident sparked panic across NATO, which we know from Western media reports citing unnamed official sources, regarding both the bloc's inability to defend against drones and the US' refusal to support a more muscular response from them as a whole afterwards.
If this was really a Ukrainian provocation just like Zelensky's claims after the Przewodow incident were, then Poland or NATO as a whole could easily pull a page from that book by quickly dismissing claims of a Russian provocation and pointing to the Ukrainian trace in order to "save face" and uphold the myth that they can defend themselves.
That's not happening even though it would make the most sense from each of their perspectives if a Ukrainian false flag was indeed considered to be the most credible explanation. To the contrary, they're being candidly introspective and doing whatever they can to ramp up their preexisting anti-drone defense plans.
"If this was really a Ukrainian provocation just like Zelensky's claims after the Przewodow incident were, then Poland or NATO as a whole could easily pull a page from that book by quickly dismissing claims of a Russian provocation and pointing to the Ukrainian trace"
Przewodow incident was easy to analyze. S-300 missile could not possibly fly from Russia. Gerbera drone with an extra fuel in a bag tank placed in front compartment, maybe can do it. It is much harder to find the culprit this time and any reasonable commentator would be wise to avoid absolutes.
I don't mind anyone being skeptical, I just think that in this case it really was caused by jamming, not a false flag. The duct-taped decoys reinforce that point since they'd presumably not be equipped with anti-jamming technology unlike the real, armed drones.
To be clear, I assign about equal probability to jamming and false flag explanations. Gerberas are easy to jam, as this doesn't really affect their mission. Their presence in the air on a course potentially leading to a valuable target is sufficient. The duct tape indicates reuse after crash landing during the mission or a rough handling or crash during delivery to original launch position on Russian side. Also, the range problem is not easy to explain given that one of the drones was found in Oleśno, which is 400 km from the Ukrainian border. This should be out of range even with an extra fuel bag, unless it was launched from Kaliningrad Oblast nearby, which was not suggested by anyone yet.
Hysteria in Europe caused by the drones is a political manna from heaven. The ruling class wants to exploit it to the fullest until strong evidence one way or the other emerges.
Russia has been using crude decoys for a while so the duct tape isn't surprising, while the range can be accounted for by Russia clandestinely launching them from Belarus ahead of their their-upcoming Zapad 2025 drills (perhaps even without Lukashenko's permission exactly as he insisted he didn't know about Russia's SMO plans during their drills at the time).
In 1939, Germans invaded Poland and had lists of every intellectual worker. Behind German army, there were special killers SS groups which assassinated methodically, in each city, each town, each village, as teachers, professors, law men, intellectual workers, elected people. They killed dozens thousands of them, systematically.
They wanted a Poland freed of intellectuals just remaining quasi slave people leaded by catholic priests to serve the german settlers.
Poland was methodically decerebrate.
That never been so evident.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/poland-calls-for-nato-backed-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine/ar-AA1MzBtE
Right on cue. If this drone incursion does not get the desired result, the europeans will engineer another, more lethal incursion until they get the Americans to come fight for them.
Ideology has nothing to do with it. European strategy is to mousetrap the United States into fighting it's wars for it. Again.
Du? There is an European strategy???
When USA fought in place of:
Germany , Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Norje, Finland, Romania, Slovakia, Tchechia, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Portugal, Spain, Italy???
Never.
When USA fought in
place of France, Russia or UK? Never.
Tell me just one only war when USA has been supposed to fight for an European country and this country looked at it in eating popcorn?
Never.
The only war USA made was only for THEIR own interest and always against very weak enemy or at the end of the bal when others did already all the hard job.
When USA arrived in Europe, USSR already destroyed ALONE 80% of Axis forces( Germans and their European allies).
When USA fought Japan, 80% and the best of Japanese army was in China and UK fought in Birmania. USA had just to fight 20% of Japanese army.Only in South Pacific.
USA never ever fought in place of another country.
Ho yes, South Korea, South Vietnam, Koweït and Israël.
We've been through this before. Europeans certainly were begging for the Americans to come fight for them in the past, just as they are begging right now.
Yes they asked to fight WITH( not for) them because it was the US interest to do that and indeed USA finished by coming in those war. But only after letting European bleed to death and they came each time when ennemi was completely exhausted and they took it all.
None of which is relevant. Basically, you're saying that the US should have responded sooner to european begging.
Rather than trying to hyperbolate a minor incursion possibly due to electronic interference, both Polish and UN leaders should be satisfied that Russia (or Ukraine?) provided a perfect trial for Polish air defence mechanisms and apparently it was successful. But what was the real score? 3/3? 3/4? 3/10 drones shot down?
If those drones were jammed which seems to be the “plausible” explanation what are they doing over Poland’s air space to begin with. There is almost no real military target that side of Ukraine. It’s also a very circuitous route getting to Kiev. If these drones can be jammed so easily Russia needs to do better when considering the countries around Ukraine. Trump is fine with the current arrangement as far as troops in Poland and the US is no longer sending its taxpayers money there. All new missles or military might is being purchased by NATO and then handed to Ukraine. There is still quite if deficit the NATO countries have to make up to equal what the US taxpayer has given to this war. Trump just raised tariffs on India and told EU countries to quit buying energy from Russia. It might take a minute to replace Russia but it will happen and relying on just China will sink Russia’s economy even further and finally bring this war to an end.
The way I see it is that:
1. Some Russian drones were launched against Ukraine from Belarus ahead of the then-upcoming Zapad 2025 drills (despite Russia's official denial and potentially without the approval of Belarus, which as its junior partner, couldn't realistically stop it anyhow)
2. Trump's diplomacy with Lukashenko in connection with his talks with Putin raises the chances of a potential deal that could possibly lead to Belarus being "brought in from the cold" via sanctions relief, ergo why the West might be downplay the above speculation
3. Russia is known to send decoy drones, some of which are flimsily made and presumably aren't outfitted with anti-jamming technology since their only purpose is to divert air defenses and electronic warfare from the actual munitions-carrying drones/missiles
4. It was these decoys, which Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski described as "duds" in a recent interview, that veered off course into Polish airspace as a result of what I believe to have been NATO jamming
5. There actually are quite a few targets of interest for Russia in Western Ukraine too since that's far behind the front lines and close to NATO logistics chains so it's not exactly unexpected that Russia would target military facilities there
A Fools’ Fair.
Dancing with Idiots.